Critical Overload Threatens Planetary Life Support Systems

Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN) skyrockets to a new high

The FIRE-EARTH/CASF Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN), an index for calculating the human impact on the planetary life support systems, climbed to a critically high level of 323 on July 1, 2013. In other words, the anthropogenic impact on the living environment exceeded 3.23 times the planet’s diminishing carrying capacity.

• The index is rising exponentially.
• HIoN has risen 38 points, or more than 13 percent, since July 2012 when it reached 285.
• The index was less than 80 in 1960, and rose to about 100 in 1980.

“According to HIoN projections, our cities and population centers could become almost entirely unsustainable by as early as 2015.”

Diagram shows the exponential growth of Human Impact on Nature (HION) between 1960  and July 2013. Source: FIRE-EARTH Real-Time Earth Models. Copyright: FIRE-EARTH Blog Authors.

RAPID CHANGE IN PROGRESS!

Tidal Surge of Global Change 26 Times Faster in 21st Century: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show the rate of global change has intensified by a factor of at least 26 in the last decade compared with the 1960s.

FIRE-EARTH defines ‘global change’ as the deterioration in the planet’s life-support capacity, caused by large-scale anthropogenic impact, which is leading to a total collapse.

Status as of End June 2012

•  As of end-June 2012, the CASF Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN) was 285 !
• WARNING: RAPID CHANGE IN PROGRESS! July 4, 2012

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July 6, 2013 – SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN –

980 Days Left

Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

• Human Impact
• Index of Human Impact on Nature
• Nature’s Warnings Exponentially Intensifying

2013: Year One of Big “Surprises”

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,166 Days Left 

[January 1, 2013] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

• SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,166 Days Left to the most Fateful Day in Human History
• Symbolic countdown to the ‘worst day’ in human history began on May 15, 2011 ...

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Global Disasters/ Significant Events

Earth Dwellers Brief History:  No major inspiration since harnessing fire

The earth dwellers have entered a new year as the anthropogenic impact on the living environment reaches nearly three times the planet’s diminishing carrying capacity.

• FIRE-EARTH Models show the rate of global change has intensified by a factor of at least 26 in the last decade compared with the 1960s.

• FIRE-EARTH defines ‘global change’ as the deterioration in the planet’s life-support capacity that is caused by large-scale anthropogenic impact, and that is leading to a total collapse.

Homo erectus making fire – source: arthursclipart.org

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• Human Impact
• Nature’s Warnings Exponentially Intensifying
• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

GLOBAL WARNING

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!
• Europe: The First Phase of Collapse Has Started 
• United States: The First Phase of Collapse Has Begun

WARNING: RAPID CHANGE IN PROGRESS!

Tidal Surge of Global Change 26 Times Faster in 21st Century: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show the rate of global change has intensified by a factor of at least 26 in the last decade compared with the 1960s.

FIRE-EARTH defines ‘global change’ as the deterioration in the planet’s life-support capacity that is caused by large-scale anthropogenic impact, leading to a total collapse.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• Human Impact
• Nature’s Warnings Exponentially Intensifying
• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

Disaster Calendar – 25 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,391 Days Left

[25 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,391 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 24 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,392 Days Left

[24 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,392 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 23 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,393 Days Left

[23 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,393 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 22 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,394 Days Left

[22 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,394 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 21 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,395 Days Left

[21 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,395 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 20 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,396 Days Left

[20 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,396 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 19 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,397 Days Left

[19 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,397 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 18 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,398 Days Left

[18 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,398 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 16 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,400 Days Left

[16 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,400 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 15 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,401 Days Left

[15 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,401 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 14 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,402 Days Left

[14 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,402 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 13 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,403 Days Left

[13 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,403 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 12 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,404 Days Left

[12 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,404 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Disaster Calendar – 11 May 2012

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,405 Days Left

[11 May 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,405 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Global Warming or Climate Change

From NASA with Love!

What’s in a Name? Global Warming vs. Climate Change

December 5, 2008

The Internet is full of references to global warming. The Union of Concerned Scientists [aka, the snakeoil merchants] website on climate change is titled “Global Warming,” just one of many examples. But we don’t use global warming much on this website. We use the less appealing “climate change.” Why?

By any other name … Whether referred to as “global warming” or “climate change,” the consequences of the widescale changes currently being observed in Earth’s climate system could be considerable.

To a scientist, global warming describes the average global surface temperature increase from human emissions of greenhouse gases. Its first use was in a 1975 Science article by geochemist Wallace Broecker of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory: “Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?”

Broecker’s term was a break with tradition. Earlier studies of human impact on climate had called it “inadvertent climate modification.”  This was because while many scientists accepted that human activities could cause climate change, they did not know what the direction of change might be. Industrial emissions of tiny airborne particles called aerosols might cause cooling, while greenhouse gas emissions would cause warming. Which effect would dominate?

For most of the 1970s, nobody knew. So “inadvertent climate modification,” while clunky and dull, was an accurate reflection of the state of knowledge.

The first decisive National Academy of Science study of carbon dioxide’s impact on climate, published in 1979, abandoned “inadvertent climate modification.” Often called the Charney Report for its chairman, Jule Charney of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge, declared: “if carbon dioxide continues to increase, [we find] no reason to doubt that climate changes will result and no reason to believe that these changes will be negligible.”

In place of inadvertent climate modification, Charney adopted Broecker’s usage. When referring to surface temperature change, Charney used “global warming.” When discussing the many other changes that would be induced by increasing carbon dioxide, Charney used “climate change.”

Within scientific journals, this is still how the two terms are used. Global warming refers to surface temperature increases, while climate change includes global warming and everything else that increasing greenhouse gas amounts will affect.

Definitions:
Global warming: the increase in Earth’s average surface temperature due to rising levels of greenhouse gases.
Climate change: a long-term change in the Earth’s climate, or of a region on Earth.

During the late 1980s one more term entered the lexicon, “global change.” This term encompassed many other kinds of change in addition to climate change. When it was approved in 1989, the U.S. climate research program was embedded as a theme area within the U.S. Global Change Research Program.

But global warming became the dominant popular term in June 1988, when NASA scientist James E. Hansen had testified to Congress about climate, specifically referring to global warming. He said: “global warming has reached a level such that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship between the greenhouse effect and the observed warming.”  Hansen’s testimony was very widely reported in popular and business media, and after that popular use of the term global warming exploded. Global change never gained traction in either the scientific literature or the popular media.

But temperature change itself isn’t the most severe effect of changing climate. Changes to precipitation patterns and sea level are likely to have much greater human impact than the higher temperatures alone. For this reason, scientific research on climate change encompasses far more than surface temperature change. So “global climate change” is the more scientifically accurate term. Like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we’ve chosen to emphasize global climate change on this website, and not global warming.

Erik Conway
Global Climate Change

[Text, image, caption: NASA Earth Observatory; comment on UCS: FEWW]