Critical Overload Threatens Planetary Life Support Systems

Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN) skyrockets to a new high

The FIRE-EARTH/CASF Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN), an index for calculating the human impact on the planetary life support systems, climbed to a critically high level of 323 on July 1, 2013. In other words, the anthropogenic impact on the living environment exceeded 3.23 times the planet’s diminishing carrying capacity.

• The index is rising exponentially.
• HIoN has risen 38 points, or more than 13 percent, since July 2012 when it reached 285.
• The index was less than 80 in 1960, and rose to about 100 in 1980.

“According to HIoN projections, our cities and population centers could become almost entirely unsustainable by as early as 2015.”

Diagram shows the exponential growth of Human Impact on Nature (HION) between 1960  and July 2013. Source: FIRE-EARTH Real-Time Earth Models. Copyright: FIRE-EARTH Blog Authors.

RAPID CHANGE IN PROGRESS!

Tidal Surge of Global Change 26 Times Faster in 21st Century: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show the rate of global change has intensified by a factor of at least 26 in the last decade compared with the 1960s.

FIRE-EARTH defines ‘global change’ as the deterioration in the planet’s life-support capacity, caused by large-scale anthropogenic impact, which is leading to a total collapse.

Status as of End June 2012

•  As of end-June 2012, the CASF Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN) was 285 !
• WARNING: RAPID CHANGE IN PROGRESS! July 4, 2012

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July 6, 2013 – SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN –

980 Days Left

Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

• Human Impact
• Index of Human Impact on Nature
• Nature’s Warnings Exponentially Intensifying

August 2012 Fourth Warmest on Record

Global Land Temperature:  Second Warmest August on Record

Average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces was the 4th highest on record for August, at 61.22°F (16.22°C) or 1.12°F (0.62°C) above the 20^th century average, NOAA reported.

• August 2012 was the 36^th consecutive August and 330^th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20^th century average.
• Global land temperature was 58.52°F, which tied with 2001 and 2011 as the second warmest August on record, behind 1998.
• Temperature for global land and ocean surfaces for June–August tied with 2005 as the third highest on record for this period at 61.25°F (16.24°C), or 1.15°F (0.64°C), above the 20^th century average.

Related Links

• U.S. Climate: Warmest YTD on Record Posted  September 11, 2012

GLOBAL WARNING

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!

Agri Disaster List Continues Growing

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,281 Days Left

[September 12, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. 

• SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,281 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

  Symbolic countdown to the ‘worst day’ in human history began on May 15, 2011...

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 Global Disasters/ Significant Events

Hundreds of additional counties designated disaster areas due to drought, excessive heat

USDA has designated about 400 additional counties across 14 states as both primary and contiguous disaster areas due to drought, excessive heat.

• The states are Alabama, North Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri,  Montana, Tennessee, Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
• As of September 12, 2012 USDA has designated 2,341 unduplicated counties across the country as agricultural disaster areas due to drought.
• List of Designated Drought Disaster Counties

U.S. Drought Disaster Map, September 12, 2012. Source: USDA. Edited for brevity by FIRE-EARTH.

Related Links

• U.S. Drought Disaster Plagues Additional Counties in 19 States Posted September 6, 2012
• Drought and Deluge Disasters Declared Posted  September 1, 2012
• U.S. Disaster Impact Leaps 24 Folds Posted August 1, 2012
• Disaster Declared for 142 U.S. Counties Posted August 23, 2012

Drought – Recent Links

• U.S. Disaster Areas Expand as Drought Deepens Posted August 1, 2012
• Extreme and Exceptional Drought Spread Across Midwest, South Posted August 2, 2012
• Wildfires Destroy Oklahoma Town Posted August 5, 2012

• Watching Events Unfold, Frame by Frame, Exactly as Forecast Posted July 20, 2012
• Deadly Heat Continues to Devour U.S. Crops Posted July 19, 2012

• Drought Continues to Plague Two-Thirds of Continental U.S. Posted July 17, 2012
• Largest Ever U.S. Disaster Continues Unfolding July 14, 2012
• Drought 2012 Posted on January 8, 2012
• Drought and deluge 

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

GLOBAL WARNING

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!

WARNING: RAPID CHANGE IN PROGRESS!

Tidal Surge of Global Change 26 Times Faster in 21st Century: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show the rate of global change has intensified by a factor of at least 26 in the last decade compared with the 1960s.

FIRE-EARTH defines ‘global change’ as the deterioration in the planet’s life-support capacity that is caused by large-scale anthropogenic impact, leading to a total collapse.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• Human Impact
• Nature’s Warnings Exponentially Intensifying
• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

Disaster declaration renewed in Texas

Texas renews disaster declaration as devastating drought persists

The Lone Star State has renewed a disaster declaration as its devastating drought continues.

Disaster Calendar 2012 – January 12

[January 12, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,525 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Texas, USA.The Lone Star State has renewed a disaster declaration as its devastating drought continues.
  • The declaration was issued in 2011 and renewed several times, as the drought showed no sign of abating.
    • Texas experienced its driest year on record last year.
    • The state also had its second warmest year with the average temp of 67.2 degrees (19.6ºC).
    • As many as 500 million trees “with a diameter of 5 inches or larger” across the state of Texas have died as a result of unrelenting drought and record-setting temperatures that plagued the Lone Star state, Texas Forest Service reported.
    • The 12-month period between November 1, 2010 and October 31, 2011 was the driest in Texas history, said the State Climatologist.
    • Also, the months of June, July and August in Texas were the hottest three-month period ever recorded anywhere in America.
    • “In 2011, Texas experienced an exceptional drought, prolonged high winds and record-setting temperatures. Together, those conditions took a severe toll on trees across the state,” said Burl Carraway, Sustainable Forestry department head. “Large numbers of trees in both urban communities and rural forests have died or are struggling to survive. The impacts are numerous and widespread.”
    • The state’s worst ever drought has also led to the largest-ever one-year decline in its cow herd, reports said.
    • The number of cows in Texas has declined by at least 600,000 [several reports quoted 750,000,] a 12 percent drop from the 5 million [several reports quoted 4.5] cows in the state at the beginning of the year[the lowest figure since the 1950s,] said David Anderson of  the Texas AgriLife Extension Service.
    • The state’s agricultural losses in 2011 are estimated at more than $5.3 billion. [The previous record was just over $4 billion during the 2006 drought.]
    • Texas AgriLife Extension Service has itemized the losses as follows
      • Livestock: $2.1 billion
      • Cotton: $1.8 billion
      • Hay: $750 million
      • Corn $326 million
      • Wheat $243 million
      • Sorghum $63 million
      • Sub Total: $5.3 billion
      • Losses incurred by related industries: $3.4 billion

Texas Drought Map – week of January 10, 2012. Source: US Drought Monitor.

Other Global Disasters

• North Carolina, USA.   Storms and a possible tornado in western NC have destroyed several structures, damaged about 100 buildings and injured at least 15 people.
  • A cold front moved through the western Carolinas triggering storms that hit Rutherford, Burke and Caldwell counties early Wednesday evening, NWS reported.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• Drought 2012
• Texas drought kills 500 million trees
• Drought Destroys Fifth of Argentine Corn Crop

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters: 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes

The Wrath of Ketsana

The wrath of Ketsana in the Philippines may not have ended.

Torrential rainfall caused by TS Ketsana, which resulted in epic flooding throughout western Luzon, may lead to yet another deadly hazard: Earthquakes.

Millions of tons of floodwater, massive landslides and unprecedented volumes of mud avalanches flowing in western Luzon could lead to regional  ‘climate-triggered’ earthquakes measuring about 4.5 Mw.

Ketsana, strengthened to typhoon force, is heading toward Vietnam

Typhoon Ketsana – Rainbow Enhancement satellite image – still image. To update and enlarged, click on the image. Source: NOAA/NHC/NWS

A handout photo released by the Philippine Air Force shows aerial view of flooded areas in Marikina City in northeastern Manila, Philippines, 27 September 2009. Up to 200 people have been killed with many reported missing as tropical storm Ketsana battered a wide area in Luzon, Philippines, dumping record rainfall (549 mm reported in one area)  on the capital that caused the worst flooding in living memory.  Thousands of people spent the night on the roofs of their submerged houses in Manila and surrounding provinces. The government weather bureau said the rainfall recorded in Manila was the city capital’s ‘greatest’ amount of rain since 1967. EPA/REY BRUNA/PHILIPPINE AIR FORCE/HO [Caption Monsters & Critics, edited by FEWW.] More Photos Posted Here!

The weather prospects don’t look too good for Vietnam, and China’s Hainan Island. Both areas seem to have an uneasy week ahead of them. However, the worst of Ketsana may yet strike Thailand and Myanmar.

Image from NASA TRMM – Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

Related Links:

• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch
• How Much Can a Single Natural Event Affect You?
• Floods leave 2.5% of Colombia’s population homeless
• Earth’s Human Induced Antiphase Nears Completion
  

• Remember this Image!

• Carbon Footprint of Your Dollar
• World Problems: The Root Cause Matrix
• First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Giga Trends
• World CO2 Emissions

• Wall Street Cognitive Dissonance
• Failing Ecosystems
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs

Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory

New Round of Floods Claim More Lives

Philippines Government Declares “State of Calamity” in Manila and nearby provinces, after Storm causes widespread flooding

At least 14 people are dead or missing as a typhoon with 100km winds makes landfall causing widespread flooding in the main Island of Luzon, Philippines. The storm was named both ‘Ondoy’ and tropical storm ‘Ketsana.’

Commuters wade through waist-deep floodwaters following heavy rains brought about by tropical storm Ketsana (locally known as Ondoy) Saturday Sept. 26, 2009 in Manila, Philippines. At least five people have been killed after nearly a month’s worth of rain fell in just six hours Saturday, triggering the worst flooding in the Philippine capital in 42 years, stranding thousands on rooftops in the city and elsewhere as Tropical Storm Ketsana slammed ashore. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez). Image may be subject to copyright.

Although more than 20 typhoons and storms formed in the Pacific Ocean hit the Philippines every year, causing floods throughout the country, the latest round of deluge in the capital, which resulted from storm-driven heavy rains, were said to be the worst in living memory.

A father and child were killed when a wall collapsed on them in Manila, while four other children were reportedly drowned in flooding  elsewhere in the city.

About 2,000 people were forced to take refuge in evacuation centers, as  rising waters threatened their homes, according to civil defense officials.

A local weather forecasters was quoted as saying that about a month’s worth of rain fell on the capital in just 6 hours. Many areas of the capital were flooded, with the water levels reaching the rooftops of single-storey buildings.

About 13.4 inches (34.1 centimeters) of rain fell on metropolitan Manila in just six hours, close to the 15.4-inch (39.2-centimeter) average for the entire month of September. The previous record was 13.2 inches (33.4 centimeters) recorded during a 24-hour period in June 1967, chief government weather forecaster Nathaniel Cruz said. —AP

In Cainta, located in the Rizal province, many residents had to climb onto rooftops to escape floodwater. According to the local mayor: “The whole town is almost 100 percent underwater.”

Civil defense officials and weather forecaster said they were completely surprised: “We knew there would be rain but not like this,” one forecaster said.

Related Links:

• US Southeast floods kill at least 10
• FEWW FORECAST: 2009 Likely Wettest Year on Record
• Drought and Deluge
• Landslides, Floods, Extreme Rain Events
• Nature Rejects More Cars

• Car burial day in S. Korea
• Nature’s Assault on Cars Continues
• CO2e Links Page
• World CO2 Emissions
• Carbon Footprint of Your Dollar

• New York Cognitive Dissonance
• Canceling Your Life Insurance Policy with Nature
• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities

350 or 450ppm? Neither, Actually!

Submitted by Dione, CASF Member

What would the future be like for my daughter?

Don’t know much about history
Don’t know much biology
Don’t know much about science books
Don’t know much about the French I took
But I do know that I love her
…
What a wonderful world this would be

Don’t know much about geography
Don’t know much trigonometry
Don’t know much about algebra
Don’t know what a slide rule is for
But I know that one and one is two

What a wonderful world this would be

[From a Herman’s Hermits song, Wonderful World, lyrics by Cooke/Alpert/Adler. Lyrics may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notice!]

Creating A Sustainable Future (CASF) received an emotional email from a young mother, “Kay,” who wishes to remain anonymous. Kay has a 6-year-old daughter and lives with her family in NW United States. Kay says she is not high on science, “in all probability the Herman’s Hermits famous song, ‘don’t know much about history, biology, science books, geography, trigonometry, algebra, and slide rule’ was written about me!”

She says her knowledge of climatology is even poorer than her French(!) “But I do know that I love my daughter and husband and ‘what a wonderful world this would be’ if we could rein in the greenhouse gases, and reverse the global warming.”

“I have read a number of articles about CO2 pollution in the atmosphere including a few written by the famed NASA scientist, Dr J. Hansen … but he is a government scientist …”

She wants to know the safe level of CO2 in the atmosphere and asks which of the 350, 450, or higher levels of CO2 pollution would be a “safe” level, and whether our reply could be put simply so that a “layperson” could understand the answer.

Hi, Kay – thanks for visiting our blog and email!

The CASF members believe even the lower atmospheric CO2 levels of 350ppm CO2 are unsafe! Here are the reasons why. Our findings put as simply as we could:

1. Our climate models show that when the atmospheric CO2 levels leaped over the 330ppmv “threshold” in the mid 1970s it triggered a positive feedback loop, which is now impacting the climate. [The atmospheric CO2 inventory has risen by about 17 percent since then.]
2. The “acid test,” if you’ll excuse the pun, of the accuracy of our models lies in the future, namely how much worse the environmental impacts will be in the 2008-2010 period. If the impacts of CO2 pollution worsened significantly, by a factor of 20% or more, by 2010 (we have a system for quantifying the adverse effects, see Index of Human Impact on Nature for an introduction), as we expect them to do so, then we know our models are accurate.
3. The catch? By 2010 it would be too late to do anything to slow down the runaway positive feedback system [other than say a prayer for the dead!]
4. While the preindustrial levels of 260-270ppm were [and they probably still would be ] “safe,” the longer term environmental impacts of CO2 at levels of about 290-300ppm, even if those levels were achievable [assume some miraculous means were introduced to wipe the slate clean,] in the current climatic state are uncertain!
5. Based on the above, we recommend an immediate shift to zero-emissions, the benefits of which, although by no means immediate, would far outweigh the ultimate cost of playing Russian roulette with climate change.

We hope the above helps. Feel free to visit us anytime!

Best wishes
Dione, FEWW Moderators and rest of CASF Team

Related Links:

• Greenland Ice Melt Faster Than IPCC Estimates
• Only Zero Emissions Would Avert Dangerous Warming
• Stern Report: “a great toxic dump of doublespeak in truly Orwellian fashion”
• UN Hypocrisy: Kick the CO2 Habit!
• The myth of keeping CO2 under 450ppm

• World CO2 Emissions
• Carbon Footprint of Your Dollar

dione