U.S. Summer Drought Outlook

Dryness and drought increasing in extent and intensity: Report

U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook. Drought Tendency During June 21 – September 30, 2012. Dryness and moderate drought have been increasing both in extent and intensity across much of the Corn Belt region, the middle and lower Mississippi Valley, and much of the Great Plains. Drought is likely to either develop, persist or expand across these areas. Source: NOAA/CPC

Some 68.78 percent of Contiguous US is currently abnormally dry or in drought condition [D0-D4]

• Previous Drought Forecast: Drought 2012

DAILY MEAN Heat Index Forecast

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Massive Bridge Over No Water

Severe drought grips Shiyan City, central China’s Hubei Province

A severe drought caused by the failed rains has gripped Shiyan City in central China’s Hubei Province.

Recent photo shows dry bed of Hanjiang River crossed by a massive bridge near Shiyan City in central China’s Hubei Province. (Xinhua/Cheng Fuhua).   More photos…

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters: 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Global Drought

• 2012 Drought and Deluge Index Page

Recent Global Drought Links

• Extreme or Severe Drought Covers 3/4 of Portugal Posted on March 4, 2012
• Hundreds Evacuated Amid Spain Wildfires
• Hunger Plagues Indigenous Community in N Mexico Posted on January 21, 2012
• Mexico declares disaster in drought-stricken areas Posted on January 9, 2012
• Drought 2012 Posted on January 8, 2012
• Drought Declared in Southeast UK Posted on February 21, 2012
• Food production drops 40 percent in Mexico due to drought Posted on March 11, 2012

Drought Spreads Across England

“A longer-term drought, lasting until Christmas and perhaps beyond” forecast for England

East Anglia, the South East, the Midlands and the South West are now officially in drought, while dry weather continues to impact other areas of England, the UK Environment Agency reported.

Parts of England received less than 60% of the average winter rainfall, the Agency reported, warning that the drought could last beyond Christmas, and into a third dry winter.

Total rainfall across England and Wales for March 2012.  Source: UK Environment Agency.

Drought status for 17 new counties in South West England and the Midlands 

Seventeen new counties in South West England and the Midlands have been designated drought status, after two dry winters have left rivers and ground waters depleted, some of them at record lows, said the Agency. The dry weather is ” taking its toll on the environment and farmers – causing problems for wildlife, wetlands and crop production, ” the Agency reported

“In the Midlands the Environment Agency has rescued fish from the River Lathkill in Derbyshire after it dried up, and the Rivers Tern, Sow, Soar and Leadon reached their lowest ever recorded levels in March. In the South West rivers are also suffering and nationally important chalk streams, such as the Hampshire Avon and the Dorset Stour, which support rare trout and salmon species, are exceptionally low.”

New Regions Impacted by Drought

The South West region covers:

• Cornwall
• Devon
• Dorset
• Somerset
• Bristol
• South Gloucestershire
• Parts of Hampshire
• Most of Wiltshire.

The Midlands region covers:

• Nottinghamshire
• Leicestershire
• Derbyshire
• Staffordshire
• West Midlands
• Warwickshire
• Shropshire
• Worcestershire
• Herefordshire
• Gloucestershire

Drought Situation

The counties of Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire, parts of Bedfordshire and Northamptonshire, and west Norfolk were declared drought areas in June 2011. “In February 2012 following a dry winter, Hampshire, West Sussex, East Sussex, Kent, Surrey, London, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire, the east of Gloucestershire and the remainder of East Anglia and in March 2012 parts of Yorkshire are now also in drought.”

Third Year of Drought?

“A longer term drought, lasting until Christmas and perhaps beyond, now looks more likely,” head of Water Resources at the UK Environment Agency said.

See Also:

• Drought Spreads in England Posted on March 28, 2012
• Intensifying Winter Drought in England Worst Since 1888 Posted on March 12, 2012
• Drought Declared in Southeast UK Posted on February 21, 2012
• Drought 2012  Posted on January 8, 2012

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters: 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Global Drought

• 2012 Drought and Deluge Index Page

Recent Global Drought Links

• Extreme or Severe Drought Covers 3/4 of Portugal Posted on March 4, 2012
• Hundreds Evacuated Amid Spain Wildfires
• Hunger Plagues Indigenous Community in N Mexico Posted on January 21, 2012
• Mexico declares disaster in drought-stricken areas Posted on January 9, 2012
• Drought 2012 Posted on January 8, 2012
• Drought Declared in Southeast UK Posted on February 21, 2012
• Food production drops 40 percent in Mexico due to drought Posted on March 11, 2012

Drought Spreads in England

Disaster Calendar 2012 – March 28

[March 28, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,449 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

Persistent dry weather spreads drought to East Anglia, the South East and parts of  Yorkshire, England

Continued warm weather across the UK has led to numerous blazes in North Yorkshire, south Wales, Dumfries and Galloway (Scotland) and the Scottish Borders.

• England, UK.  Drought has persisted in the English counties of Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire, parts of Bedfordshire and Northamptonshire, and west Norfolk since June 2011.  Following a dry winter, the counties of Hampshire, West Sussex, East Sussex, Kent, Surrey, London, Berkshire, Hertfordshire, Buckinghamshire, Oxfordshire, the east of Gloucestershire and the remainder of East Anglia were officially declared as drought areas in February.  This month  parts of Yorkshire are also added to the official drought declaration.
  • Seven water companies (Anglian Water, South East Water, Southern Water, Sutton and East Surrey Water, Thames Water, Veolia Water Southeast and Veolia Water Central) have announced temporary restrictions to start by 5 April 2012, Environment Agency reported.
  • In the absence of above-average rainfall in coming weeks, the drought could spread and intensify even more widely, the Environment Agency has warned.

Latest available groundwater levels for indicator sites for the week ending 20 March, classed relative to an analysis of historic values for the same time of year (Source: Environment Agency). Geological map reproduced with kind permission from UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2012

Latest daily mean river flow expressed as a percentile2 and classed relative to an analysis of historic daily mean flows for the same time of year (Source: Environment Agency)

Other Global Disasters/ Significant Incidents

• A major fire has razed a shanty town in Quezon City, Philippines, destroying at least 200 homes and injuring several people, reports said.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters: 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

UK Drought

• Drought 2012  Posted on January 8, 201
• Intensifying Winter Drought in England Worst Since 1888 Posted on March 12, 2012
• Drought Declared in Southeast UK Posted on February 21, 2012

Global Drought

• 2012 Drought and Deluge Index Page

Drought in Balkans Hits Hydro Power

Balkans worst drought in 4 decades severely affects hydro power production

Lingering drought has drastically reduced electricity production at hydro power dams on Neretva river in southern Bosnia. 

Disaster Calendar 2012 – March 14

[March 14, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,463 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Balkans.  The worst drought in more than 4 decades has drastically reduced electricity production at hydro power dams on Neretva river in southern Bosnia.
  • The drought, which began late last summer,  has reduced production from about 2,000 megawatt-hours of electricity per year to less than a quarter of that amount, reports said.
  • The five lake that supply power to southern Bosnia are said to be in their lowest levels ever.
  • “There are no fish left here,” said a local, standing on his boat house, stranded in the mud.
  • Albania’s electricity output is almost entirely from hydro power, Bosnia gets 50 percent, Croatia and Slovenia 40 percent each, Serbia 30 percent and Montenegro 17 percent, while Kosovo relies heavily on coal.

Other Global Disasters

• Switzerland. From Val d’Anniviers to Walhalla. At least 28 people, including 22 schoolchildren, were killed when the driver of a Belgian bus crashed his vehicle in a tunnel in Switzerland.
  • The children were returning home after a week skiing in Val d’Anniviers in the Swiss Alps.
  • The remaining 24 children were injured in the crash near Sierre, in Valais, close to the border with Italy.
  • Most of the children were aged 12, and the bus,  one of three, was reportedly hired by a Christian group.

• Bangladesh.  Some 122 people were drowned or missing after a passenger ferry collided with a small oil tanker and sank in the Meghna River, southwest of the capital, Dhaka.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar: Collapse has already Begun

Intensifying Winter Drought in England Worst Since 1888

Drought killing fish, destroying wildlife habitats and affecting cereal and potato crops

Fourteen UK counties in the South, the East and the Midlands are officially in drought. 

Disaster Calendar 2012 – March 12

[March 12, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,465 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• England.  The worst winter drought in England since records began in 1888 is killing fish in low rivers, destroying wildlife habitats and devastating cereal and potato crops, reports said.
  • Number of fish kills caused by the drought this year already exceed the previous years.
  • Some 14 English counties in the South, the East and the Midlands are officially in drought, as of posting.
  • Senior officials responsible for environment warned last month that large parts of the country are facing an inevitable drought this summer even if the coming months bring heavy rainfall.
  • The country’s Meteorological Agency has warned that ‘prolonged periods of heavy rainfall in the near future are unlikely.’
  • Currently, the following counties are officially in drought:
    • Cambridgeshire, Lincolnshire, parts of Bedfordshire and Northamptonshire and west Norfolk have officially been in drought since summer 2011.
    • Berkshire, Gloucestershire, Hampshire, Hertfordshire, Kent, London, Oxfordshire, eastern Wiltshire, Surrey, as well as  East and West Sussex were added to the official drought list last month.
    • Counties of Shropshire and Somerset have received much less than average rainfall in recent months.
    • Parts of Yorkshire are likely to be declared as drought areas.
  • High risk of drought exists in Nottinghamshire, south Derbyshire and Leicestershire due to the dry winter, said UK Environment Agency.
  • The UK temperatures are currently above 60ºF (15.5ºC) and are expected to rise to 67ºF, about 12ºF higher than the norm for the season, warmer than some Greek islands.
  • Hosepipe bans and other water restrictions have been/are being enforced across the drought-stricken areas affecting at least 20 million people.

Total rainfall across England and Wales for February 2012. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2012.

Groundwater Levels (latest available map) for indicator sites for the week ending 6 March (Source: Environment Agency). Geological map UK Groundwater Forum, BGS © NERC. Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2012

Water resource risks to irrigated and rainfed potato cropping in England and Wales (Source: EA (2011) and PCL (2011). About 56% of all irrigated potato fields are currently located within areas classified as being at ‘high’ risk, and 32% are at ‘moderate’ risk (Cranfield University).

Soil moisture deficits for end of January 2012 (left panel) and end of February 2012 (right panel). Top row shows actual soil moisture deficits (mm) and bottom row shows the difference (mm) of the actual from the 1961-90 long term average soil moisture deficits. MORECS data for real land use (Source: Met Office © Crown Copyright, 2012). Crown copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2012.

Recent Global Drought Links

• Extreme or Severe Drought Covers 3/4 of Portugal Posted on March 4, 2012
• Hundreds Evacuated Amid Spain Wildfires
• Hunger Plagues Indigenous Community in N Mexico Posted on January 21, 2012
• Mexico declares disaster in drought-stricken areas Posted on January 9, 2012
• Drought 2012 Posted on January 8, 2012
• Drought Declared in Southeast UK Posted on February 21, 2012
• Food production drops 40 percent in Mexico due to drought Posted on March 11, 2012

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar: Collapse has already Begun

Food production drops 40 percent in Mexico due to drought

Mexico’s worst drought in living memory intensifies affecting two-thirds of the states

Extreme drought has affected millions of Mexicans, who lack adequate food.

Disaster Calendar 2012 – March 11

[March 11, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,466 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Mexico. The worst recorded drought in Mexico’s history has severely affected millions of people.
  • The state of Guanajuato, a major grower of crops in the country has received little rainfall in the past 18 months.
  • Up to 100,000 heads of livestock have reportedly died and million more are without food.
  • More than 4 million acres of crops have been destroyed.
  • “In some parts of the country this has grown to be a bigger issue than even security,” says Alejandro Aboytes, a farmer in Guanajuato and former president of a local producers group. “It is hardest for those who must rely on the rain to grow food. They cannot grow anything, so it means they don’t eat.”
  • Food production has fallen by 40 percent across Mexico because of the severe drought, said the National Confederation of Peasants.
  • Some half dozen small towns and communities have turned into ghost towns.
  • The drought is expected to intensify.

North American Drought Map – January 31, 2012.

US Seasonal Drought Outlook

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar: Collapse has already Begun
  

Recent Drought Links

• Extreme or Severe Drought Covers 3/4 of Portugal Posted on March 4, 2012
• Hundreds Evacuated Amid Spain Wildfires

• Hunger Plagues Indigenous Community in N Mexico Posted on January 21, 2012
• Mexico declares disaster in drought-stricken areas Posted on January 9, 2012
• Drought 2012 Posted on January 8, 2012

Dozens Killed in Mozambique by Back-to-Back Storms

Twin storms leave dozens dead, more than a million people affected in Mozambique

Tropical depression Dando and Cyclone Funso, striking within days of each other, have left dozens dead and hundreds of thousands of families affected.

Disaster Calendar 2012 – January 28

[January 28, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,509 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Mozambique. Tropical depression Dando and Cyclone Funso, striking within days of each other, have destroyed thousands of homes, killing dozens of people and leaving a quarter of a million families affected.
  • Thousands of hectares of crops have also been destroyed or damaged.

Other Global Disasters

• Yemen.  Half a million children in Yemen could die or become ill from malnutrition, said a report.
  • Trailing behind Afghanistan, Yemen has the world’s 2nd highest rate of chronic malnutrition among children, with more ore than 58 per cent of the children stunted, UNICEF reported.
  • “Conflict, poverty and drought, compounded by the unrest of the previous year, the high food and fuel prices, and the breakdown of social services, are putting children’s health at great risks and threatening their very survival,” said UNICEF’s Regional Director for the Middle East and North Africa.
  • “Acute malnutrition affects as many as 30 per cent of children in some parts of the country, close to the levels observed in south Somalia, and twice as high as the internationally recognized emergency threshold.”
  • Measles killed 74 children from among 2,500 affected by a recent outbreak of the disease, Government figures show. “While most children recover from measles within two to three weeks, children with malnutrition can suffer serious complications which can lead to death.”
  • Some 69,000 Yemenis children die each year before their fifth birthday.
  • With 77 deaths per 1,000 live births, Yemen has one of the highest death rates among children under the age of five in the Middle East and North African regions.
  • are food insecure, and the number is expected to rise.
    • The term “food insecurity” is used when people go to  bed on an empty stomach or have no idea where their next meal may come from.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

• Drought tightens grip on S. Mozambique
• Half a million Yemeni children suffer from acute malnutrition

Drought tightens grip on S. Mozambique

High temperatures and drought destroying crops in southern Mozambique

Two southern Mozambique provinces of Gaza and Inhambane are plagued by worsening drought and high temperatures, following earlier deluge. 

Disaster Calendar 2012 – January 16

[January 16, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,521 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Mozambique. Continued worsening drought and heat are destroying crops in two provinces of Gaza and Inhambane [combined population: ~ 3 million] in southern Mozambique.
  • In Massangena, the worst-hit district in Gaza Province in southwest of the country, farmers are facing extreme hardship.
  • In December 2011, famine was reported in Magude District of Maputo Province and  in six districts of Gaza province, where malnutrition in both adults and children became widespread and continues.
  • In contrast, the northern and central regions of the country are experiencing excessive rains which are threatening to ruin the crops, Radio Mozambique reported.
  • Heavy rains ruined the second harvest season in 2010, and the first season in 2011, followed by the onset of a severe drought in 2011.
  • “We first had much rainfall destroying crops, now the drought is destroying crops,” the Administrator of Magude, was quoted as saying.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• Typhoon WASHI Legacy Lingers
• Philippines declares national calamity

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar