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Posts Tagged ‘Global SST anomalies’

Global Land Surface Third Warmest June on Record

Posted by feww on July 19, 2013

Earth’s land surface was 1.05°C above 20th century average

The global land surface temperature rose 1.05°C (1.89°F) above the 20th century average of 13.3°C (55.9°F), marking the third warmest June on record, according to NOAA.

  • The June global sea surface temperature was 0.48°C  above the 20th century average of 16.4°C, the 10th warmest June in the 134-year period of record.
  • June’s combined average temperature for land and ocean surfaces for 2013 tied with 2006 as the fifth highest on record, at 0.64°C above the 20th century average of 15.5°C.
  • The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–June period (year-to-date) was 0.59°C above the 20th century average of 13.5°C, tying with 2003 as the seventh warmest similar period on record.
  • The United States experienced its 15th-warmest June on record.
  • Monthly average records for June were broken over much of N Canada, far NW Russia, the Philippines, S Japan, portion of SW China and part of Africa.

2june globa-NOAA
January–June Global Land and Ocean plot. Source: NOAA/NCDC

2YTD LSSTMTA - NOAA
January–June Global Hemisphere plot. Source: NOAA/NCDC

Latest data may be accessed via the Global Surface Temperature Anomalies page.

Posted in Significant Event Imagery, significant events | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

August 2012 Fourth Warmest on Record

Posted by feww on September 18, 2012

Global Land Temperature:  Second Warmest August on Record

Average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces was the 4th highest on record for August, at 61.22°F (16.22°C) or 1.12°F (0.62°C) above the 20th century average, NOAA reported.

  • August 2012 was the 36th consecutive August and 330th consecutive month with a global temperature above the 20th century average.
  • Global land temperature was 58.52°F, which tied with 2001 and 2011 as the second warmest August on record, behind 1998.
  • Temperature for global land and ocean surfaces for June–August tied with 2005 as the third highest on record for this period at 61.25°F (16.24°C), or 1.15°F (0.64°C), above the 20th century average.

Related Links

GLOBAL WARNING

Posted in Climate Change, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, Global Temperature, global Temperature Anomalies, global temperatures | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

El Niño Update [30 Nov 2009]

Posted by feww on December 1, 2009

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  30 November 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~  1.6ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 1.3ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.2ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 130°W.

[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.


[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in some parts across the eastern Pacific.

|

Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

TOP: Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located over the western tropical Pacific Ocean just southeast of Papua New Guinea.
Middle: Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies remained over the east-central equatorial Pacific.
Above: Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across the eastern equatorial Pacific. An anticycloniccouplet was evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During October, a nearly zonal pattern of below-average heights over the mid-latitudes was observed with an anomalous ridge over Alaska and the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and much of the U.S. During November, the anomalous zonal pattern of below-average heights at mid-latitudes had been replaced by strong anomalous ridges across the N. Pacific and much of N. America with below-average heights across Alaska. This pattern has led to above-average temperatures across much of Canada and the United Statesand below-average temperatures in Alaska.

Intraseasonal Variability

  • Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
  • Related to this activity
    • Significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
    • Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:

    Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, ENSO, Pacific SST Outlook, Uncategorized | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

    El Niño Update [23 Nov 2009]

    Posted by feww on November 24, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  23 November 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~  1.5ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC


    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
    During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 140°W. [Expanding across the Tropical Pacific. FEWW ]


    [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    Global SST Departures (°C)
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.


    [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

    • During the last four weeks, positive equatorial SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
    • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in some regions across the eastern half of the Pacific.

    Upper-Ocean Conditions in the Eq. Pacific

    • The basin-wide equatorial upper ocean (0-300 m) heat content is greatestprior to and during the early stages of a Pacific warm (El Niño) episode (compare top 2 panels) and leastprior to and during the early stages of a cold(La Niña) episode.
    • The slope of the oceanic thermocline is least (greatest) during warm (cold) episodes.
    • Recent values of the upper-ocean heat anomalies (positive) and the thermocline slope index (negative) reflect El Niño.

    Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

    • During late September –mid November 2009, temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
    • The most recent period shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the equatorial Pacific near 50 -150m depth.

    Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

    Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Day

    Click image to enlarge.

    Intraseasonal Variability

    • Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
    • Related to this activity
      • significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
      • Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).

    Summary

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates:

    Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño latest news, El Niño update, El Niño weekly report, ENSO | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño Update [16 Nov 2009]

    Posted by feww on November 17, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  16 November 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~  1.5ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC


    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4
    During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 175°E and 140°W.

    Global SST Departures (°C)
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

    Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

    • During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
    • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased across much of the central and eastern Pacific.

    Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
    Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across
    the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.

    Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

    • During late September – early November 2009, temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
    • The most recent period (below) shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the equatorial Pacific near 50 – 150m depth.

    Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

    • Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located over the western tropical Pacific Ocean just southeast of Papua New Guinea.
    • Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over the east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous anticyclones were evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.

    Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
    From mid-September through October, anomalous troughing was prevalent over the North Pacific Ocean. During October, the pattern of below-average heights became more zonal over the mid-latitudes and an anomalous ridge developed over the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and much of the U.S. Since early November, the anomalous zonal pattern of below-average heights at mid-latitudes has been replaced by anomalous ridges with below-average heights across the northernmost latitudes. This pattern has led to above-average temperatures across much of Canada and the United States.

    Summary

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates:

    Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Ocean SST | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

    El Niño Update [10 Nov 2009]

    Posted by feww on November 11, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  9 November 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~  1.6ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~  1.7ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 1.3ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC


    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
    During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 175°E and 160°W.

    Global SST Departures (°C)
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

    Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

    • During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
    • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in much of the central and eastern Pacific.

    Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

    • Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located across the northern Philippines and over the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
    • Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over parts of the western and east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific. Anomalous anticyclones were evident in the subtropics of both hemispheres, which is consistent with El Niño.

    Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

    • During mid September –October 2009, temperature anomalies increased and expanded eastward in the central equatorial Pacific at thermoclinedepth, due to the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave.
    • The most recent period (below) shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the central Pacific near 100-150m depth.

    Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
    In late September and early October, an anomalous ridge developed over the Gulf of Alaska, with a downstream trough and below-average temperatures over parts of the U.S. During mid October, the pattern became more zonal with an anomalous trough evident over the mid-latitudes and an anomalous ridge over the higher latitudes. This pattern contributed to below-average temperatures across Canada and the eastern half of the U.S. Recently, anomalous ridges emerged over the eastern North Pacific and eastern U.S. leading to above-average temperatures over the western and eastern U.S.

    Low-level (850-hPa) Zonal (east-west) Wind Anomalies (m s-1)

    • Since April 2009, the MJO has been weak.
    • Since May 2009, westerly wind anomalies have covered large portions of the equatorial Pacific, except near the Date Line.
    • Recently, the largest westerly wind anomalies have been observed across the eastern Pacific Ocean.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

    Summary

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least theNorthern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates:

    Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño weekly report, ENSO, Ocean SST | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño Update [2 Nov 2009]

    Posted by feww on November 3, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  2 November 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~  1.6ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~  1.5ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.4ºC


    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
    During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.

    Global SST Departures (°C)
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

    Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

    • During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
    • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in much of the central and eastern Pacific.

    SST Tep Dept Eq Pacific

    Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

    • Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation) were located across the northern Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and over the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
    • Low-level (850-hPa) westerly anomalies were observed over parts of the western and central equatorial Pacific.
    • Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific.

    HC evo eq Pacific

    200-hpa Vel Pot Anom

    Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

    • Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
    • The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

    SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 1 November  2009
    The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last at least through Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

    Summary

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last at least through Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates:

    Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean SST, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño Update [28 Oct 2009]

    Posted by feww on October 28, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  26  October 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~  1.4ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~  1.1ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.1ºC


    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
    During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.

    Global SST Departures (°C)
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

    Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

    • During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.
    • During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased over the central Pacific.

    SSTD EP 26-10-09

    Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days

    • Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Australia. Negative OLR anomalies (enhanced convection and precipitation, blue shading) were located across the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and in the western tropical Pacific Ocean.
    • Low-level (850-hPa) equatorial winds were near-average over the central and eastern Pacific. Westerly anomalies were observed in the western Pacific.
    • Upper-level (200-hPa) easterly anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific.

    200-hpa Vel Pot Anom

    Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

    • Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
    • The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).

    SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
    The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Summary

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates:

    Posted in El Niño, ENSO, Gulf of Alaska, Indian Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, wind anomaly | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño Update [13 Oct 2009]

    Posted by feww on October 14, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 13 October 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~ 1.0ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.7ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ (-0.7)ºC


    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
    WeeksDuring the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across parts of the central and eastern Pacific.

    Global SST Departures (°C)
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

    Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
    During the last four weeks, SST anomalies remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, except in the far eastern Pacific, which have become negative. •During the last month, equatorial SST anomalies decreased over much of the eastern Pacific and increased over the central Pacific.

    Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific

    SSTD - Eq Pac sml

    Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
    During mid August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over the central U.S., which contributed to below-average temperatures in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average. Recently, an anomalous ridge has dominated the Gulf of Alaska, and a downstream trough has led tobelow-average temperatures across much of the western and northern U.S.

    Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

    Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5ºC to +2.0ºC), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

    Summary

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates:

    Posted in El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, wind anomaly | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño Update [28 Sept 2009]

    Posted by feww on September 29, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 28 Sept 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.8ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ -0.1ºC


    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution
    SST anom 28-sept-09

    Highlights

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
    During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across much of the central and eastern Pacific.

    Global SST Departures  (ºC)
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

    Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

    • During the last four weeks, SST anomalies remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • During the last month, there was little change in the equatorial SST anomalies.

    Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

    • In the first half of September 2009, temperature anomalies increased in the eastern Pacific due to the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave.
    • The most recent period shows a continuation of positive anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, with the largest values between 50-150m depth.

    Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
    During late July through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the central North Pacific Ocean. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a trough over the southern U.S., which contributed to cooling in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average.

    Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

    • Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
    • The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

    Enso Forecasts Sept 2009
    Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 14 Sept 2009).

    ONI Evolution
    The most recent ONI value (June –August 2009) is +0.7oC.

    Summary:

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates:

    Posted in El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, wind anomaly | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño Update [21 Sept 2009]

    Posted by feww on September 22, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 21 Sept 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.3ºC


    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution
    sst anom 21 sep 09

    Highlights

    During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

    Global SST Departures  (ºC)
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

    Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
    During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. •During the last month, the change in equatorial SST anomalies was slightly positive in the east-central Pacific.

    Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
    During late July through mid-September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the central North Pacific Ocean. Downstream over the United States, the anomalous height pattern generally featured a trough over the eastern United States with ridging prevalent over the western U.S. This anomalous pattern led to below-average temperatures over the central and eastern U.S. and to above-average temperatures over portions of the western U.S.

    ONI Evolution
    The most recent ONI value (June –August 2009) is +0.7oC.

    Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

    • Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
    • The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

    Enso Forecasts Sept 2009
    Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 14 Sept 2009).

    SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 20 September 2009
    The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Summary

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5ºC above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates:

    Climate Prediction, El Niño weekly report, Global SST anomalies, Oceanic Kelvin waves, equatorial Pacific Ocean

    Posted in El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, wind anomaly | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño Update [8 Sept 2009]

    Posted by feww on September 8, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 8 Sept 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 1.0ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.7ºC


    El Niño Map.
    [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution
    SST anom 8-sept-09

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
    Avg SST anom 8sept09

    During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average near the Date Line and in the eastern Pacific.

    Global SST Departures (°C)
    Avg SST anom global 8sep09

    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

    ONI (°C): Evolution since 1950
    ONI  8-sept-09

    The most recent ONI value (June – August 2009) is +0.7°C.

    Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

    Summary

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    For additional information see following links.

    Relate Links:

    El Niño Updates

    ENSO, wind anomaly , , , ,

    Posted in ENSO, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, wind anomaly El Niño | Tagged: , , , | 1 Comment »

    El Niño Update [24 Aug 2009]

    Posted by feww on August 25, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 24 August 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.7ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.8ºC

    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

    sst anom 24 aug 2009

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks:
    During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average near the Date Line and in the eastern Pacific.

    Global SST Departures
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

    Weekly SST Departures for the Last Four Weeks

    • During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have been positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • During the last month, there has been little change in SST anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

    Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific

    • During late-June through mid-August 2009, positive sub-surface temperature anomalies weakened in the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean.
    • The most recent period shows positive anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, with the largest anomalies near 125m depth in the west-central Pacific.

    Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

    • Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
    • The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority of the models indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

    model forecasts of enso

    Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 Aug 2009).

    Summary:

    • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    See  El Niño Home Page for previous entries and related links.

    Related Links:

    El Niño Updates

    Posted in El Niño, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño Update – 3 August 2009

    Posted by feww on August 4, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 3 August 2009

    Summary

    • El Niño conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño conditions will continue to intensify and are expected to last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    Tropical Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and Wind Anomalies – Last 30 Days

    OLr anoms

    (Top) Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia and northern Australia, while negative anomalies (enhanced convection, blue shading) in the western and central Pacific from Papua New Guinea to 160°W.

    (Middle) Low-level (850-hPa) equatorial winds were near-average over the eastern equatorial Pacific. Westerly anomalies were observed in the far western Pacific.

    (Above) Upper-level (200-hPa) wind anomalies remained near-average across much of the Pacific, except for westerly wind anomalies in the eastern Pacific.
    Images and caption: NOAA/ NCEP.

    Related Links:

    Posted in Atmospheric Circulation, El Niño/La Niña, Indian Ocean, northern hemisphere, Oceanic Niño Index, ONI, Upper-Ocean Conditions | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    El Niño Update – 27 July 2009

    Posted by feww on July 28, 2009

    ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

    The following UPDATE is prepared by

    Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 27 July 2009

    The latest weekly SST departures are:

    • Niño 4   ~ 0.6ºC
    • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
    • Niño 3 ~ 1.0ºC
    • Niño 1+2 ~ 0.6ºC

    El Niño map
    El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

    most recent SST anomalies

    Summary

    • El Niño conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
    • Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño conditions will continue to intensify and are expected to last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

    SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific

    avg SST anomalies - 28 june 25 iuly 2009

    During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least +0.5°C above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and at least +1.0°C above average in the east-central and eastern Pacific. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    Global SST Departures

    avg sst anom global 28 jun - 28 jul 2009
    During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

    Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies

    Upper Ocean Heat Anoms
    The upper ocean heat content was below-average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean between mid-August 2008 and March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008. The heat content anomalies have remained positive since April 2009. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEPFull Report

    Related Links:

    Notes:
    1. NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña

    • El Niño:characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5°C.
    • La Niña:characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5°C.
    • By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode,these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
    • CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 SST departures meet or exceed +/-0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

    2. Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)

    • The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.
    • Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analysis (Extended Reconstructed SST –ERSST.v3b). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Smith et al., 2008, J. Climate, vol. 21, 2283-2296.)
    • Used to place current events into a historical perspective.
    • NOAA’s operational definitions of El Niño and La Niña are keyed to the ONI index.

    3. The most recent ONI value (April –June 2009) is +0.2oºC.

    El Niño Conditions Set in Across Pacific Ocean [From NASA’s Earth Observatory]

    EO image
    El Niño conditions are evident in this sea surface temperature anomaly image based on data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite on July 26. The current data are compared to 12-year average temperatures (1985-1997) measured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers that have flown on several NOAA missions.

    Cream-colored places represent near normal temperatures; red is warmer than normal temps; while, blue shows cooler than normal areas. The dark red area on the eastern Pacific off the coast of Peru and Ecuador (north of Peru) indicates much warmer than average temps. Across the Pacific, ocean temperatures around Indonesia were slightly cooler (light blue) than usual.

    Earth’s largest ocean, the Pacific is the single biggest influence on the average temperature, rainfall, and vegetation conditions in the tropics. The Pacific’s primary climate pattern, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO),  includes an ocean component (the El Niño/La Niña pattern) and an atmospheric component, the Southern Oscillation.

    Every 3-8 years, the prevailing easterly winds over the eastern equatorial Pacific weaken or reverse, surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific climb, and rainfall declines over most tropical land areas. In 1997-98, an El Niño event contributed to devastating fires in Indonesia’s tropical forests, releasing large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which completely destroyed the Mentawai coral reefs west of Sumatra.

    El Niño ocean conditions does not guarantee full ENSO event. So far the atmospheric component of the pattern, the Southern Oscillation, isn’t fully cooperating. As of July 26, the trade winds in the western Pacific (near Indonesia) had shifted direction and were blowing weakly toward the east (see NOAA wind anomaly graphic), but across the central and eastern Pacific, easterly trade winds were still of average or slightly above-average strength. For an ENSO event to fully develop, the easterly trades will have to weaken across a much wider area of the Pacific than now.

    NASA image by Jesse Allen, using AMSR-E data processed and provided by Chelle Gentemann and Frank Wentz, Remote Sensing Systems. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey.  [Edited by FEWW.]

    Posted in El Niño, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean, North Pacific, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »