TSs Hannah, Ike and Josephine

Latest: Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

Photos and Videos

Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

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Messy Hannah looks like a big baby left alone with a bowl of milk chocolate mix on the kitchen table!

Tropical Storm Front Update 9-3

L to R: Gustav (the ‘Fake Hurricane’), TS Hannah, TS Ike, TS Josephine    (Still Image)  – NOAA

Tropical Atlantic Imagery – GOES East  – RGB Image – (Updated) – NOAA/SSD

Brief Update:

Gustav (The ‘Ghost Hurricane’)

GUSTAV is now a tropical depression located [Sep 2 at 21:00 UTC] near latitude 33.0 north, longitude 93.9 west, or about 56 km north of Shreveport Louisiana moving slowly into the ArkLaTex region.

Storm total rainfalls are expected to be five to ten inches with isolated maximum of fifteen inches over portions of Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi.  Four to six inches with a maximum of eight inches is expected over portions of Missouri and west central to northern Illinois.  Two to four inches of rain is
possible over far eastern Oklahoma. – Forecaster Petersen, NHC

TS Hannah

Tropical Storm Hanna is seen southeast of Florida in this satellite image on September 2, 2008. REUTERS/NOAA/Handout

Maximum sustained winds: 105 km/h

Sep 3 – 03:00 UTC – The center of TS Hanna was located near latitude 20.5 north, longitude 72.4 west or 105 km southeast of Great Inagua Island  and about 720 km southeast of Nassau.

[Great Inagua is the third largest island in the Bahamas at 1550 km² located about 92 km northwest of eastern tip of Cuba.]

Hanna has been almost stationary in  the past few hours. However, a north or northwestward motion is expected to begin early on Wednesday followed by a northwestward motion with some increase in forward speed Wednesday night.  On the forecast track, Hanna will be moving across the southeastern Bahamas overnight, and near or over the central Bahamas Wednesday and Wednesday night, and the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. – Forecaster: Brown/Avila

The Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos islands, Haiti and the Dominican Republic have experienced substantial downpours.

In Haiti, at least 25 people were killed by severe flooding and mudslides. Heavy rains inundated the northern port city of Gonaives.

“The city is flooded and there are parts where the water gets to 2 meters,” said an official. “A lot of people have been climbing onto the tops of their houses since last night to escape the flooding.”

Reuters report: Storms swirl in Atlantic, deadly floods hit Haiti

TS Ike

Date: Sep 3, 2008
Time: 09:00UTC
Location: TS Ike was located by NHC near latitude 20.6 north, longitude 49.6 west or about 1340 km east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.
Direction: Ike is moving west-northwestward and a gradual turn toward the west is expected over the next 48 hours
Speed: About 30 km/hr and
Wind Speed: Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 100 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is forecast to
Become a hurricane later today, and continue to strengthen over the next 48 hours.
Breadth: Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure: 996mb (29.41 inches)

TS Josephine

Date: Sep 3, 2008
Time: 09:00UTC
Location: The center of tropical storm Josephine was located by NHC near latitude 13.7 north, longitude 27.5 west or about 355 km west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands.
Direction: Josephine is moving toward the west-northwest and is expected to continue in that direction for the next 48 hours.
Speed: About 20 km/hr
Wind Speed: Sustained winds are about 95 km/hr with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast in the next 24 hours.
Breadth: Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inches)
More updates will follow …

If Hannah manages to organize herself, the conditions are conducive to a major hurricane, at least a Category 4A hurricane, according to FEWW model.

Image of the Day: While You Were Away …

NO: A Ghost Town

A copy of The Times-Picayune is displayed on a deserted downtown street after the evacuation of New Orleans, prior to the arrival of Hurricane Gustav, August 31, 2008. REUTERS/ Mark Wallheiser. Image may be subject to copyright.

Related Links:

• Ghost towns
• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities

Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

As forecast by FEWW model, Gustav has now strengthened to an extremely dangerous category four hurricane

The National Hurricane Center in Miami confirmed a few minutes ago that Gustav now has maximum winds approaching 230 km/hr which makes him an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. The following excerpt is from their advisory update:

Hurricane Gustav Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl   Al072008
13:20 EDT Sat Aug 30 2008

… Gustav has continued to strengthen and now has maximum winds near 230 km/hr (145 mph) with higher gusts.  This makes Gustav an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.  A special advisory will be issued at about 14:00 EDT to modify the initial and forecast intensities. The special public advisory will take the place of the intermediate public advisory previously scheduled for that time. —Forecaster Knabb

Hurricane Gustav – GOES Imagery – Floater (updated image) – IR Aviation color enhancement – Credit: NOAA Satellite Information Service/SSD

Hurricane Gustav – GOES Imagery – (still image saved for comparison Aug 30, 2008 22:15 UTC) – IR Aviation color enhancement – Credit: NOAA Satellite Information Service/SSD

Gustav’s current characteristics including his rapid ability to strengthen, his temperament and projected path, suggest that he could cause substantial damage to structures, especially to the 3,900 or so offshore oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

Gustav could bring up to 10 meter storm surge along the northern Gulf Coast. According to the Census Bureau estimate, as many as 12 million U.S. residents may experience Gustav’s impact.

The storm has already left a trail of destruction and some 90 people dead in its wake as it swept across the Caribbeans over the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica. The storm’s human cost in Cayman Islands and Cuba may exceed the standing death toll.

What about Hannah?

TS Hannah (C) Chasing Hurricane Gustv (L) – GOES Caribbean Imagery – (Still Image) – August 30, 2008 – Credit: NOAA Satellite Information Service/SSD

According to NHC TS Hannah advisory No. 11, at 21:00UTC the center of tropical storm Hanna was located near latitude 22.4 north, longitude 67.2 west or about 415 km east-northeast of Grand Turk Island. The center of Hanna is forecast to move near or just northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands late Sunday or Monday.

Hannah has maximum sustained winds of near 85 km/hr, with higher gusts.  Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hrs. Minimum central pressure:1000mb.

Hannah seems to have the potential to “pack a big punch!”

Hurricane Gustav to Feed on Warm Waters

Latest Update: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

Warm Waters in the S and SW Coast of Cuba Await Gustav

Real Time POES Composite Imagery Atlantic/East Pacific
(Daily Sea Surface Temperatures)

Image Source: NOAA

Warm waters in the 30-35ºC temp. range (shown in firebrick red) surrounding the south and southwestern coast of Cuba await hurricane Gustave as it leaves Haiti. Gustav may strengthen into a cat. three/four hurricane.

NHC Hurricane GUSTAV Forecast Discussion (No. 7):

Center of Gustav made landfall around 17:30 UTC.  A minimum pressure of 992 mb was reported just as the center moved inland. As the center is moving over the mountainous terrain of the southwest peninsula of Haiti, Gustav is likely losing strength.  The eye is no longer evident on satellite images, and the system could weaken below hurricane intensity tonight.  However, the upper-level environment remains favorable for intensification with only a little north-northeasterly shear, and therefore Gustav is likely to regain strength as it approaches the Windward Passage and eastern Cuba tomorrow.

Gustav – GOES Infrared Image – University of Wisconsin – Madison – CIMSS Tropical Cyclones page

Latest News Update:

“Given the current track for Gustav and the expectation that it might enter the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, we are making logistical arrangements to evacuate staff who are not essential to production or drilling operations,” Shell said in a statement.

“Evacuations could begin as early as Wednesday. There is no impact on production at this time.” (Source: AFP)

An oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico. Source: AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) – Hurricane Gustav slammed into flood-prone Haiti on Tuesday, killing at least two people.

The only reliable mode of transport! Joggers run through flooded streets after torrential rains hit Havana August 26, 2008. REUTERS/Claudia Daut. Image may be subject to copyright.

PORT-AU-PRINCE (AFP) — Hurricane Gustav slammed into Haiti, killing at least five as it lashed the desperately poor Caribbean nation with powerful winds and heavy rain, just days behind deadly Tropical Storm Fay.

People, carrying belongings, crosses a street flooded by rain caused by Hurricane Gustav in Port-au-Prince,Tuesday, Aug. 26, 2008. Gustav barreled into Haiti on Tuesday, toppling trees, dumping rain and sending fuel prices soaring on fears the storm could become “extremely dangerous” when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos). Image may be subject to copyright.

• Hurricane Gustav hits Haiti, drives up oil prices (AP Video)
• As Fay soaks us, keep an eye out for Gustav (WBIR-TV, TN )
• Jindal vows to skip convention if Gustav threatens (KATC)
  

Hurricane Gustav [VII]

Latest Update: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

Aug 29 – 03:00 UTC: TS Gustav Latest Update

Aug 27 Update: Hurricane Gustav to Feed on Warm Waters

Hurricane Gustav VII [the seventh storm of the Atlantic hurricane season] is Heading Toward Haiti

With powerful winds of 140 km/h (85mph), Gustav is churning through Caribbeans heading toward south-west Haiti, likely to wreak havoc and cause much devastation in the region.

Hurricane Gustav is seen in this satellite image dated August 26, 2008. REUTERS/NOAA/Handout

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone – NOAA/NWS

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. NOAA-NWS

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 64 kt…74 mph (hurricane force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 74 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, … , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 74 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended. NOAA-NWS

Gustav Could Become a Cat. Two Hurricane Before Landfall in Haiti

Gustav became stronger as it neared the south coast of Haiti, NHC reported.  Here’re the highlights of NHC Hurricane Advisory:

• A hurricane warning remains in effect from Barahona in the Dominican Republic westward to Le Mole St Nicholas Haiti.

• A hurricane watch is also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo.  A hurricane watch is also in effect for Jamaica.

• At 8:00 am EDT the center of hurricane Gustav was located near latitude 17.5 north, longitude 72.0 west or about 125 km south-southeast of Port Au Prince Haiti and about 425 km southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.

• Gustav continues moving toward the northwest at 15 km/hr today with a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed forecast on Wednesday.  On this track this hurricane should move over Southwestern Haiti later today and near or just south of  Eastern Cuba on Wednesday.

• Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 Km/hr with higher gusts.  Gustav is a category one hurricane on The Saffir-Simpson scale.  The hurricane could become a category Two hurricane before landfall in Haiti later today.

• Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 110 km.

• The latest minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).

Hurricane Gustav – GOES Infrared AVN Color Floater Imagery – 30 minute updates

Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches over southern Hispaniola and Jamaica with isolated maximum amounts of up to 15 inches are possible.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. — Forecaster Brown/Pasch

“Oil prices in Asia rose Tuesday on concerns Hurricane Gustav may disrupt oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.” AP reported.

“It’s hard to predict where Gustav will strike,” an analyst in Singapore reported. “But the market is reacting to it and edging up some.”

“Light, sweet crude for October delivery was up 58 cents at $115.69 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract rose 52 cents overnight to settle at $115.11 a barrel.”

On its forecast track and anticipated strength, Gustav could cause significant disruptions to offshore oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

REM: You read it hear first! 😉

Latest Update: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast