Super Typhoon HAIYAN: WE TOLD YOU SO!

Death and Destruction Toll Rising in the Philippines

Point of No Return: In 2004¹,  our team forecast an 80-90 percent increase in the total power dissipated annually by tropical cyclones  in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans by 2015.

Storms will continue to get stronger (develop greater average intensities) and survive at high intensity for longer (take more time to dissipate peak energy) resulting in substantial increases in storm-related losses in the near future.

[1. First draft posted by MSRB on Internet on February 26, 2005]

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Death and Destruction Toll in the Philippines

• Dead or Missing: 5,613 (official)
• Injured: 18,557 (official)
• Homeless: 4.4 million (official)
• Directly affected: More than 13 million (U.N.)

Extent of Crop Damage

“High winds, heavy rains and localized floods destroyed houses and infrastructure, including irrigation facilities, and resulted in losses of the main staple rice paddy, sugarcane and coconut crops, as well as livestock, poultry and fisheries,” said the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

HAIYAN destroyed about 153,500 hectares (ha) of rice paddy, maize and other high value crops, including 77,500 ha of rice and 21,000 ha of maize crops, it added [figures are rounded to the nearest 100.]

Philippines imports of rice are to increase by 20 percent next year to 1.2 million metric tons, said FAO.

Source: SitRep No. 30 released by Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMC)  November 20, 2013. [$1 = 43.6 Philippine pesos – FIRE-EARTH Blog]

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Chronology of Disaster

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (locally known as YOLANDA) made its first landfall in the early morning of 8 November in Guiuan, Eastern Samar province. HAIYAN made subsequent landfalls in Tolosa south of Tacloban City, Leyte province, Daanbantayan and Bantayan Island, Cebu province, Conception, Iloilo province and Busuanga, Palawan province.

Related Links

• Super Typhoon HAIYAN Disaster: 4 Pct of Philippine Population Displaced November 17, 2013
• Global Disasters/ Significant Events – November 18, 2013 November 18, 2013

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: WE TOLD YOU SO!

Death and Destruction Toll Rising in the Philippines

Point of No Return: In 2004,  our team forecast an 80-90 percent increase in the total power dissipated annually by tropical cyclones  in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans by 2015.

Storms will continue to get stronger (develop greater average intensities) and survive at high intensity for longer (take more time to dissipate peak energy) resulting in substantial increases in storm-related losses in the near future.

Super Typhoon HAIYAN:Death and Destruction Toll in the Philippines

• Dead or Missing: 5,613 (official)
• Injured: 18,557 (official)
• Homeless: 4.4 million (official)
• Directly affected: More than 13 million (U.N.)

Extent of Crop Damage

“High winds, heavy rains and localized floods destroyed houses and infrastructure, including irrigation facilities, and resulted in losses of the main staple rice paddy, sugarcane and coconut crops, as well as livestock, poultry and fisheries,” said the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

HAIYAN destroyed about 153,500 hectares (ha) of rice paddy, maize and other high value crops, including 77,500 ha of rice and 21,000 ha of maize crops, it added [figures are rounded to the nearest 100.]

Philippines imports of rice are to increase by 20 percent next year to 1.2 million metric tons, said FAO.

Source: SitRep No. 30 released by Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMC)  November 20, 2013. [$1 = 43.6 Philippine pesos – FIRE-EARTH Blog]

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Chronology of Disaster

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (locally known as YOLANDA) made its first landfall in the early morning of 8 November in Guiuan, Eastern Samar province. HAIYAN made subsequent landfalls in Tolosa south of Tacloban City, Leyte province, Daanbantayan and Bantayan Island, Cebu province, Conception, Iloilo province and Busuanga, Palawan province.

Related Links

• Super Typhoon HAIYAN Disaster: 4 Pct of Philippine Population Displaced November 17, 2013
• Global Disasters/ Significant Events – November 18, 2013 November 18, 2013

Super Typhoon HAIYAN Disaster: 4 Pct of Philippine Population Displaced

Super Typhoon HAIYAN affects 13 pct. of Philippine population, leaves 4 pct. homeless

The number of Filipinos affected by Super Typhoon HAIYAN has increased to over 13 million [UNOCHA,] with about 4 million people displaced [NDRRMC.] The latest figure for the homeless is 7 times the government estimates released only 4 days ago.

• According to the latest figures, more than 4 percent of the Philippines population of about 99 million are now homeless as a result of Super Typhoon HAIYAN.

On November 9, 2013, FIRE-EARTH Models estimated the impact of Super Typhoon HAIYAN in the Philippines as a magnitude 6.2 catastrophe on the FEWW Disaster Scale, indicating large-scale regional destruction with up to 40,000 casualties.

FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models estimate the total cost of damage at more than $5billion.

Dead, Injured, or Missing

Many people may have been swept out to sea and their bodies lost after a tsunami-like wall of seawater slammed into coastal areas. One neighborhood with a population of between 10,000 and 12,000 was now deserted, said Tacloban mayor Alfred Romualdez.

Philippine Government’s [Highly Politicized] Official Disaster Stats [including its woefully inadequate disaster response to date]

Source: SitRep No. 25 released by Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMC)  November 17, 2013 @ 6:00pm local time.

Source: SitRep No. 24 released by Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMC)  November 17, 2013. [$1 = 43.66 Philippine pesos]

[Note: Official estimates  for the total cost of damage has been amended to PhP10.34billion] which is more realistic than the initial estimates.]

This post will be updated throughout the day as more information becomes available.

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Chronology of Disaster

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (locally known as YOLANDA) made its first landfall in the early morning of 8 November in Guiuan, Eastern Samar province. HAIYAN made subsequent landfalls in Tolosa south of Tacloban City, Leyte province, Daanbantayan and Bantayan Island, Cebu province, Conception, Iloilo province and Busuanga, Palawan province.

• Philippine Mega Disaster: 2 Million Displaced November 16, 2013
• Death Toll Doubles in Philippine Typhoon Disaster November 15, 2013
• Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Death Toll Continues Rising November 14, 2013
• Philippine President Lowers the Typhoon Death Toll, for Now November 13, 2013
• Stench of Death Permeates the Philippines Disaster Zone November 12, 2013
• Tropical Depression ZORAIDA Striking Mindanao, Philippines November 11, 2013
• Philippine Disaster Update – November 11 November 11, 2013
• Typhoon HAIYAN Strikes Northern Vietnam Near China Border November 11, 2013
• Philippine Disaster Zone: “It’s Like the End of the World.” November 10, 2013
• Super Typhoon HAIYAN – NOV 10 Update November 10, 2013
• Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Casualties Could Top Many Thousands November 9, 2013
• Extraterrestrial Typhoon Force Generating 20-Meter “Tsunami” November 8, 2013
• Super Typhoon HAIYAN’S Arm Battering the Philippines November 7, 2013
• “Extraterrestrial” Typhoon HAIYAN – Image Update November 6, 2013
• HAIYAN Intensifying to “Extraterrestrial” Levels November 6, 2013
• Potential Super Typhoon Headed for the Philippines November 4, 2013
• Typhoon KROSA Destroys or Damages 19,000 Homes in Philippines  November 2, 2013

Other Related Links

• FEWW New Hurricane Scale
• Satellite Imagery

Philippine Mega Disaster: 2 Million Displaced

Super Typhoon HAIYAN affects 13 pct. of Philippine population, leaves 2 pct. homeless

The number of people affected has increased to nearly 13 million, with about 2 million people displaced. The latest figures, provided by the U.N., represent a significant increase from the previous bulletin.

• According to the latest figures, more than 2 percent of the Philippines population of about 99 million are now homeless as a result of Super Typhoon HAIYAN.

Many people may have been swept out to sea and their bodies lost after a tsunami-like wall of seawater slammed into coastal areas. One neighborhood with a population of between 10,000 and 12,000 was now deserted, said Tacloban mayor Alfred Romualdez.

On November 9, 2013, FIRE-EARTH Models estimated the impact of Super Typhoon HAIYAN in the Philippines as a magnitude 6.2 catastrophe on the FEWW Disaster Scale, indicating large-scale regional destruction with up to 40,000 casualties.

FIRE-EARTH Disaster Models estimate the total cost of damage at more than $5billion.

Philippine Government’s [Highly Politicized] Official Disaster Stats:

Source: SitRep No. 22 released by Philippines National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRMC)  November 16, 2013. [$1 = 43.66 Philippine pesos]

[Notes: Official estimates  for the total cost of damage has been amended to PhP9,460,240,222.13] which is more realistic than the initial estimates. Philippines population is about 99 million.]

This post will be updated throughout the day as more information becomes available.

Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Chronology of Disaster

Super Typhoon HAIYAN (locally known as YOLANDA) made its first landfall in the early morning of 8 November in Guiuan, Eastern Samar province. HAIYAN made subsequent landfalls in Tolosa south of Tacloban City, Leyte province, Daanbantayan and Bantayan Island, Cebu province, Conception, Iloilo province and Busuanga, Palawan province.

• Death Toll Doubles in Philippine Typhoon Disaster November 15, 2013
• Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Death Toll Continues Rising November 14, 2013
• Philippine President Lowers the Typhoon Death Toll, for Now November 13, 2013
• Stench of Death Permeates the Philippines Disaster Zone November 12, 2013
• Tropical Depression ZORAIDA Striking Mindanao, Philippines November 11, 2013
• Philippine Disaster Update – November 11 November 11, 2013
• Typhoon HAIYAN Strikes Northern Vietnam Near China Border November 11, 2013
• Philippine Disaster Zone: “It’s Like the End of the World.” November 10, 2013
• Super Typhoon HAIYAN – NOV 10 Update November 10, 2013
• Super Typhoon HAIYAN: Casualties Could Top Many Thousands November 9, 2013
• Extraterrestrial Typhoon Force Generating 20-Meter “Tsunami” November 8, 2013
• Super Typhoon HAIYAN’S Arm Battering the Philippines November 7, 2013
• “Extraterrestrial” Typhoon HAIYAN – Image Update November 6, 2013
• HAIYAN Intensifying to “Extraterrestrial” Levels November 6, 2013
• Potential Super Typhoon Headed for the Philippines November 4, 2013
• Typhoon KROSA Destroys or Damages 19,000 Homes in Philippines  November 2, 2013

Other Related Links

• FEWW New Hurricane Scale
• Satellite Imagery