Active or Extremely Active 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA

2013 Atlantic hurricane season could see up to 6 major hurricanes: NOAA CPC

The six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, could see up to 20 named storms, of which 7 to 11 could become hurricanes, including as many as 6 major hurricanes, says NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC).

NOAA’s 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal season is most likely, with the possibility that the season could be very active. The outlook calls for a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

Summary of CPC Prediction for 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season:

• 70% chance of an above-normal season
• 13-20 Named Storms (winds of 39 mph or higher)
• 7-11 Hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher)
• 3-6 Major Hurricanes ( Categories 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 120%-205%

Note: The official NHC 1981-2010 seasonal averages 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.

Climate factors that control Atlantic hurricane activity

According to NOAA/CPC, three climate factors strongly control Atlantic hurricane activity, which are expected to join forces to produce an active or extremely active 2013 hurricane season.

• The ongoing set of atmospheric conditions that have been producing increased Atlantic hurricane activity, which includes a strong west African monsoon, that is responsible for the ongoing era of high activity for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995

• Expected continuation of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across MDR, which includes the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea

• ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean (i.e., no El Niño or La Niña); meaning El Niño is not expected to develop and suppress the hurricane season

NOAA’s 2013 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook

• 55% chance of a below-normal season
• 35% chance of a near-normal season
• 10% chance of an above normal season

[The eastern Pacific hurricane region covers the eastern North Pacific Ocean east of 14:0oW and north of the equator.]

The outlook is based on the analysis and prediction of three climate signals:

• The ongoing climate conditions that have been associated with reduced eastern Pacific hurricane activity since 1995

• Expected ENSO-neutral conditions, meaning El Niño is not expected to develop and strengthen the seasonal activity,

• Expected near-average or below-average sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

NOAA estimates  a 70% chance of occurrence for each of the following ranges of activity in the 2013 season:

• 11-16 named storms,
• 5-8 hurricanes,
• 1-4 major hurricanes,
• An ACE range 60%-105% of the median.

Related Links

• 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season: AAA
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

FIRE-EARTH Forecast

FIRE-EARTH will NOT release details of its 2013 Hurricane Season forecast as a continued protest to the ongoing censorship, hacking and theft of the intellectual property posted on this blog.