Hurricane Paloma strengthens near Grand Cayman

Update: NOV 10, 2008 at 23:54 UTC

The remnant of Paloma which was earlier reduced to a tropical depression is now located between the north coast of Cuba and Andros Island.  Re-development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds, NHC reported.

Update: NOV 09, 2008 at 06:00UTC

Paloma weakens as it moves slowly across east-central Cuba. At 06:00UTC the center of hurricane Paloma was near latitude 21.1 north, longitude 77.6 west or about 45 km southeast of Camaguey, Cuba.

Paloma is moving in northeasterly direction at about 7 km/hr. On the forecast track the center of Paloma will be near the Atlantic coast of east-central Cuba Sunday noon and be nearing the central
Bahamas by late Sunday/early Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to about 155 Km/hr. Paloma is expected to weaken further during the next 48 hrs., even after it has cleared the coast of Cuba, NHC said.

Update: NOV 08, 2008 at 23:20UTC

At about 23:20 UTC hurricane Paloma likely made landfall near Santa Cruz Del Sur Cuba with maximum sustained winds of about 200 km/hr.

Update: NOV 08, 2008 at 12:00UTC

Maximum sustained winds have increased to about 225 Km/hr with higher gusts. Paloma is an extremely dangerous category Four A hurricane on FEWW Hurricane Scale [category four on the saffir-simpson scale.] NHC expects additional strengthening Saturday, followed by weakening later today through Sunday.

Dangerous Hurricane Paloma Threatens Grand Cayman, Cuba

Summary:

• Paloma is a compact but very dangerous hurricane, currently a category Three A on FEWW Hurricane Scale [category three on the saffir-simpson scale] with sustained winds of about 185 km/hr. 
• Paloma strengthens as it approaches the Cayman Islands on its way to storm-battered Cuba.
• Schools, businesses and government offices have closed down in the Cayman Islands.
• The national weather service in Cayman Islands forecast coastal waves rising to about 9 meters, causing dangerous storm surges in the coastal areas.
• Paloma drenched Honduras with heavy rains on Thursday, compounding the impoverished country’s misery where recent storms have made as many as 100,000 people homeless.
• The hurricane is expected to weaken as it reaches Cuba late Saturday, where two previous hurricanes, Gustav and Ike, caused about $5 billion in damages earlier this year.
• Cuban officials began a major evacuation in the flood-prone areas on Friday moving at least 100,000 people to safe shelters.

Dangerous Hurricane Paloma – Aviation color enhancement satellite image – Still frame – Nov 8, 2008 at 01:15UTC – Image: NOAA/NESDIS

Major hurricane Paloma strengthens on the way to Grand Cayman

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Stewart
• Date and Time: Nov 8, 2008 at 00:00 UTC
• Location: At 00:00 UTC the center of hurricane Paloma was located near latitude 18.9 north, longitude 81.1 west or about 50 km south of the eastern end of Grand Cayman and about 440 km southwest of Camaguey, Cuba.

• Category and Wind Speed: Maximum sustained winds have increased to near about 185 km/hr with higher gusts. Paloma is now a category Three A on FEWW Hurricane Scale [category three on the saffir-simpson scale.] Additional strengthening is possible through Saturday morning.  Afterward gradual weakening is expected to begin by late Saturday.

Hurricane PALOMA: Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

Image: NOAA

• Direction: Paloma is moving toward the north-northeast at 9 km/hr. A gradual turn toward the northeast is forecast to occur overnight, and that general motion is expected for the next 48 hrs. On the forecast track, the center of Paloma will pass near Grand Cayman tonight, reaching near Cayman Brac Saturday morning, approaching the coast of central Cuba late Saturday.

• Breadth: Paloma is a compact hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward about 35 km from the center, with tropical storm force winds extending outward to about 195 km.

• Estimated minimum central pressure: 962mb (28.41 inches).

• Storm surge flooding: 1.5 to 2.5 meters above normal tide levels accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves is expected near the center of paloma in the cayman islands.

• Storm surge flooding of Storm surge flooding of 2.5 to 4 meters is expected near and to the east of where the center of Paloma makes landfall along the south coast of Cuba.
• Rainfall: Paloma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 10 to 25 cm (5 to 10 inches) over the Cayman Islands and central and eastern Cuba with isolated maximum totals of up to 40cm possible. Flash flood and mudslides are also possible, especially in higher terrain, which may be life-threatening over mountainous terrain.

Six Costliest US Atlantic Hurricanes to Date

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

21th Century’s Costliest U-S Atlantic Hurricanes to Date:

Note: Hurricane Gustav not included due to cost uncertainty.

(Source: NHC, Wikipedia and others)

See below also for image comparison

Hurricane Ike (2008)

Hurricane Ike regional imagery, 2008.09.11 at 2015Z. Centerpoint Latitude: 23:01:14N Longitude: 88:50:54W.Data Elements: Hurricane Ike is a large and powerful storm, quite capable of strengthening before landfall early Saturday.

Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Visualization Date: September 11, 2008 16:50:17
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Hurricane Gustav (2008)

Hurricane Gustav regional imagery, 2008.09.01 at 1515Z. Centerpoint Latitude: 29:21:10N Longitude: 90:59:20W.

Data Elements: Hurricane Gustav has made landfall in Louisiana, just west of New Orleans.
Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery
Visualization Date: September 1, 2008 11:56:23

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Hurricane Wilma (2005)

Hurricane Wilma regional imagery, 2005.10.24 at 1815Z. Centerpoint Latitude: 32:54:16N Longitude: 81:06:18W.

Data Elements: See this higher resolution image showing the storm and the intense baroclinic trough over the eastern U.S. that Wilma will interact with in the next few days.
Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Visualization Date: October 24, 2005 15:02:23

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Hurricane Rita (2005)

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Hurricane Rita regional imagery, 2005.09.23 at 2115Z. Centerpoint Latitude: 30:12:30N Longitude: 91:51:33W.

Data Elements: See this higher resolution image.
Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Visualization Date: September 23, 2005 18:03:03

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Hurricane Ivan (2005)

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Hurricane Ivan regional imagery, 2004.09.15 at 1515Z. Centerpoint Latitude: 27:52:28N Longitude: 87:44:48W.

Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Visualization Date: September 15, 2004 11:29:01
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Hurricane Katrina (2005)

.Hurricane Katrina regional imagery, 2005.08.28 at 2115Z. Centerpoint Latitude: 26:52:21N Longitude: 89:05:18W.

Data Elements: A high resolution print image can be found here.
Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Visualization Date: August 29, 2008 10:13:07
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Hurricane Charley (2004)

Hurricane Charley regional imagery, 2004.08.13 at 2015Z. Centerpoint Latitude: 26:38:37N Longitude: 82:44:24W.

Data Elements: Charley’s present movement is north, 5 degrees at 17 knots.
Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Visualization Date: August 13, 2004 15:58:14
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Hurricane Frances

Hurricane Frances regional imagery, 2004.09.05 at 1615Z. Centerpoint Latitude: 27:55:21N Longitude: 81:06:28W.

Data Elements: Maximum sustained winds are near 90 MPH, with higher wind gusts.
Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Visualization Date: September 5, 2004 11:52:18
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Hurricane Andrew (1992)

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Hurricane Andrew was the second most powerful, and the last of three Category 5 hurricanes that made U.S. landfall during the 20th century, after the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 and Hurricane Camille in 1969. Andrew caused 65 deaths. (Cost: $38bn – adjusted 2007 dollars).

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All Images Credit: NOAA/NESDIS/EVP

Gustav spares New Orleans levees

Insured losses could still reach $10 billion

Hurricane Gustav slammed ashore near Cocodrie, Louisiana, about 115 km southwest of New Orleans on Monday.

Gustav weakened to a Category 2 hurricane with 177 kph winds [just 1kph shy of a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale] before landfall and as it moved inland weakened to a Category 1 hurricane with 130 kph winds.

A street at a railroad crossing near the Inner Harbor Navigational Canal is flooded as Hurricane Gustav hits New Orleans, September 1, 2008. REUTERS/Lee Celano. Image may be subject to copyright.

Weaker than Katerina on landfall, Gustav spared the levees which were breached by Katrina in 2005 flooding the city killing about 1800 and stranding hundreds of thousands of people.

About six inches of water flooded streets around New Orleans Industrial Canal, and strong winds knocked down trees, but no substantial damage has yet been reported.

In case you wondered what Gustav looked liked! –  Clouds looming over New Orleans looked like a scene right out of “Independence Day.” (Stephen Morton/Getty Images). Image may be subject to copyright.

It is  estimated that Gustav’s insured losses could reach $10 billion. Katrina’s insured losses were reported at about $40 billion and total damage was more than $81.2 billion [2005 dollars.]

Gustav seemed to have caused more damage in the Caribbeans while near full strength. It killed a total of about 100 people in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba. According to Cuban authorities more than 90,000 houses were damaged or destroyed by Gustav. Reuters reported.

As Gustav swept inland over the United States, tropical storm Hanna strengthened to a hurricane near the Bahamas, and Tropical Storm Ike formed in the Atlantic Ocean.

Click here for Gustav’s latest image.

Gustav and Hannah: A picture’s worth …

Latest: Tropical Storm Front Update 9-3

Gustav Chased by ‘Rapid Fire!’

Composite (‘realtime’) Image developed by Rick Kohrs at the Space Science and Engineering Center, University of Wisconsin, using McIDAS.

Eastern Conus Sector (Infrared Channel) – NOAA – [Note: For IR data, the highest pixel values correspond to the coldest temperatures.] – Still Image.

Rapid Fire: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook – NOAA/NHC/NWS – Still Image – Date/Time: See Inset

TSs Hannah and Gustav

Latest: Tropical Storm Front Update 9-3

Tropical Storm [‘Big’] Hannah Chases Gustav

Tropical Storm Hanna regional imagery, 2008.08.29 at 08:45UTC.
Centerpoint Latitude: 21:17:12N Longitude: 62:25:56W.

Data Elements: Tropical Storm Hanna is located north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. This system is moving toward the northwest near 22km/hr. Maximum sustained winds are near 85km/hr.
Observation Device: GOES-12  4-km infrared imagery.
Visualization Date: August 29, 2008 08:05:16 UTC
Credit NOAA – Environmental Visualization Service

Gustav and Hannah – GOES Puerto Rico SECTOR IR Image – Updated Image

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Puerto Rico Sector (IR Ch 4, Mercator Projection) – Credit: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Tropical storm Hanna advisory number 5

• Hanna is poorly organized at this time.

• At 09:00 UTC the center of tropical storm Hanna was located near latitude 21.7 North, …longitude 62.3 West or about 400 km north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

• Hanna is moving toward the northwest near 22 km/hr.   A motion between west-northwest and northwest away from the Leeward Islands is expected during the next  24 hrs.

• Maximum sustained winds are near 85 km/hr with higher gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast today but Hanna could become a hurricane in a couple of days.

• Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 km from the center.

• Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

Rain bands associated with Hanna could produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across portions of the Leeward Island. – Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm Hanna regional imagery, 2008.08.28 at 16:15UTC.
Centerpoint Latitude: 19:10:50N Longitude: 58:37:25W.

Data Elements: Hanna has become the eighth tropical storm of the 2008 season.
Observation Device: GOES-12 1 km visible imagery.
Credit NOAA – Environmental Visualization Service

Hurricane Gustav to Feed on Warm Waters

Latest Update: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

Warm Waters in the S and SW Coast of Cuba Await Gustav

Real Time POES Composite Imagery Atlantic/East Pacific
(Daily Sea Surface Temperatures)

Image Source: NOAA

Warm waters in the 30-35ºC temp. range (shown in firebrick red) surrounding the south and southwestern coast of Cuba await hurricane Gustave as it leaves Haiti. Gustav may strengthen into a cat. three/four hurricane.

NHC Hurricane GUSTAV Forecast Discussion (No. 7):

Center of Gustav made landfall around 17:30 UTC.  A minimum pressure of 992 mb was reported just as the center moved inland. As the center is moving over the mountainous terrain of the southwest peninsula of Haiti, Gustav is likely losing strength.  The eye is no longer evident on satellite images, and the system could weaken below hurricane intensity tonight.  However, the upper-level environment remains favorable for intensification with only a little north-northeasterly shear, and therefore Gustav is likely to regain strength as it approaches the Windward Passage and eastern Cuba tomorrow.

Gustav – GOES Infrared Image – University of Wisconsin – Madison – CIMSS Tropical Cyclones page

Latest News Update:

“Given the current track for Gustav and the expectation that it might enter the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, we are making logistical arrangements to evacuate staff who are not essential to production or drilling operations,” Shell said in a statement.

“Evacuations could begin as early as Wednesday. There is no impact on production at this time.” (Source: AFP)

An oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico. Source: AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) – Hurricane Gustav slammed into flood-prone Haiti on Tuesday, killing at least two people.

The only reliable mode of transport! Joggers run through flooded streets after torrential rains hit Havana August 26, 2008. REUTERS/Claudia Daut. Image may be subject to copyright.

PORT-AU-PRINCE (AFP) — Hurricane Gustav slammed into Haiti, killing at least five as it lashed the desperately poor Caribbean nation with powerful winds and heavy rain, just days behind deadly Tropical Storm Fay.

People, carrying belongings, crosses a street flooded by rain caused by Hurricane Gustav in Port-au-Prince,Tuesday, Aug. 26, 2008. Gustav barreled into Haiti on Tuesday, toppling trees, dumping rain and sending fuel prices soaring on fears the storm could become “extremely dangerous” when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos). Image may be subject to copyright.

• Hurricane Gustav hits Haiti, drives up oil prices (AP Video)
• As Fay soaks us, keep an eye out for Gustav (WBIR-TV, TN )
• Jindal vows to skip convention if Gustav threatens (KATC)
  

Hurricane Gustav [VII]

Latest Update: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

Aug 29 – 03:00 UTC: TS Gustav Latest Update

Aug 27 Update: Hurricane Gustav to Feed on Warm Waters

Hurricane Gustav VII [the seventh storm of the Atlantic hurricane season] is Heading Toward Haiti

With powerful winds of 140 km/h (85mph), Gustav is churning through Caribbeans heading toward south-west Haiti, likely to wreak havoc and cause much devastation in the region.

Hurricane Gustav is seen in this satellite image dated August 26, 2008. REUTERS/NOAA/Handout

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone – NOAA/NWS

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. NOAA-NWS

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 64 kt…74 mph (hurricane force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 74 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, … , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 74 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended. NOAA-NWS

Gustav Could Become a Cat. Two Hurricane Before Landfall in Haiti

Gustav became stronger as it neared the south coast of Haiti, NHC reported.  Here’re the highlights of NHC Hurricane Advisory:

• A hurricane warning remains in effect from Barahona in the Dominican Republic westward to Le Mole St Nicholas Haiti.

• A hurricane watch is also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo.  A hurricane watch is also in effect for Jamaica.

• At 8:00 am EDT the center of hurricane Gustav was located near latitude 17.5 north, longitude 72.0 west or about 125 km south-southeast of Port Au Prince Haiti and about 425 km southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.

• Gustav continues moving toward the northwest at 15 km/hr today with a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed forecast on Wednesday.  On this track this hurricane should move over Southwestern Haiti later today and near or just south of  Eastern Cuba on Wednesday.

• Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 Km/hr with higher gusts.  Gustav is a category one hurricane on The Saffir-Simpson scale.  The hurricane could become a category Two hurricane before landfall in Haiti later today.

• Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 110 km.

• The latest minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).

Hurricane Gustav – GOES Infrared AVN Color Floater Imagery – 30 minute updates

Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches over southern Hispaniola and Jamaica with isolated maximum amounts of up to 15 inches are possible.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. — Forecaster Brown/Pasch

“Oil prices in Asia rose Tuesday on concerns Hurricane Gustav may disrupt oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.” AP reported.

“It’s hard to predict where Gustav will strike,” an analyst in Singapore reported. “But the market is reacting to it and edging up some.”

“Light, sweet crude for October delivery was up 58 cents at $115.69 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract rose 52 cents overnight to settle at $115.11 a barrel.”

On its forecast track and anticipated strength, Gustav could cause significant disruptions to offshore oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

REM: You read it hear first! 😉

Latest Update: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast