Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

Ike Loves Open Waters!

Ike has strengthened to a Category 2A on FEWW Hurricane Scale, and is expected to become a major hurricane (category 3A or above with winds of at least 178km/hr) before making landfall in the northern Gulf of Mexico (Southern Texas).

FEWW Comment: Ike left behind up to 200 people dead in Haiti and Cuba (the death toll could still rise) as it churned through the Caribbeans and is now bringing much wind and rain to the US.

Having previously strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane, Ike struck eastern Cuba as a category 3 hurricane, and there’s a significant probability that it might strengthen again to a category 3 hurricane, possibly stronger, as it moves over the warm waters of Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Ike has shown a remarkable ability to self organize since almost immediately after birth. The hurricane previously strengthened steadily, but rapidly, as it moved west on the open waters of the Atlantic ocean. Ike loves open waters and with its nascent ability to strengthen rapidly he could prove to be the strongest and most dangerous hurricane of the season to date; however, it’s still too early to forecast with high certainty the hurricane’s wind forces at landfall.

Ike on his way out of Cuba. GOES East Unenhanced Image Frozen for the purpose of comparison. Date and Time: Sept 11, 2008 at 00:15UTC – Credit: NOAA/NHC/NWS

GOES East Floater (Updated Image) Unenhanced – IR CH 4 – Date and Time: Updated  (see foot of image). Credit: NOAA/NHC/NWS

IKE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Knabb/Berg
• Date and Time: Sept 10, 2008 at 00:00UTC

• Hurricane Watch Area: From Cameron westward to port Mansfield, Texas.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday.

• Tropical Storm Warning Area: From the mouth of the Mississippi River westward to east of Cameron Louisiana.  AND from west of Key West to the Dry Tortugas.

• Location: At 00:00UTC the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 24.7 north, longitude 86.3 west or about 1,125 km east of Brownsville Texas and about 555 km south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
  

• Category and Wind Speed: At 160 km/hr, with higher
  Gusts, Ike is a Category 2A hurricane on the FEWW Hurricane Scale.  Ike is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday.
• Direction: Ike is moving toward the northwest near 13 km/hr.  A turn back toward the west-northwestward is expected tonight or early on Thursday and a general west-northwestward motion over the central and western Gulf of Mexico is expected on Thursday and Friday.
• Breadth: Ike is a large tropical cyclone.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 185 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 335 km. 
  
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 947 mb (27.96 inches).

• Storm surge flooding: Coastal storm surge flooding along the coasts of Cuba and in the Florida Keys should continue to subside tonight.  coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous waves, can be expected within the tropical storm warning area.  Above normal tides of 2 to 4 feet are expected elsewhere along much of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, but will be increasing along the western gulf coast as Ike approaches.

• Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15 to 30 centimeters (cm) over western Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to
  50cm possible.  These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.  Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5cm are possible over extreme southern Louisiana and over the extreme northern Yucatan Peninsula.

Ike’s Forecast Path

Latest NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) Forecast Positions. Credit: CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering Center – University of Wisconsin- Madison

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

Credit: NOAA/NHC/NWS

Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

• Photos and Videos

Ike makes landfall in Cuba

Weakened fortuitously to a Category 3 hurricane, Ike made landfall in Cuba in the province of Holguin near Punto de Sama on the north coast of eastern Cuba at about 01:45UTC, NHC said, with maximum winds of about 205 km/hr.

GOES-East 4km IR4 Floater 2 –  Date and Time: Latest Image, Updated – Credit: RAMSDIS-CIRA/RAMM – Colorado State University

Hurricane Ike regional imagery, 2008.09.08 at 14:45UTC. Centerpoint Latitude: 21:15:44N Longitude: 78:26:22W. GOES-12 1 km visible imagery. [Data Elements: The center of Ike may be over open water south of Cuba soon. Ike may not weaken as much as previously shown.] Credit: NOAA/NESDIS/EVP

By 03:00 the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 21.1 north, longitude 75.8 west near Cabo Lucrecia about 220km east of Camaguey Cuba.

Ike is now moving in a westerly direction at 20 km/hr, and is expected to turn west to west-northwest in the next 24-48 hours.  On this track the center will move over eastern, central and western Cuba through Tuesday.

Since making landfall, Ike’ maximum sustained winds have marginally receded to about 195 km/hr, and is now a category 3B hurricane of FEWW Hurricane Scale.  Further weakening is likely as Ike moves over Cuba.

Ike’s Legacy in the Caribbeans [so far]

Turks and Caicos Islands (Population 22,500): T & C took the full brunt of Ike as a Category 4 hurricane with 215 km/hr winds. About 80 percent of the houses on Grand Turk (population 3,000 were destroyed or damaged, an official said.

The Dominican Republic: Up to 50,000 people abandoned their homes because of the powerful winds and rain.

Haiti: The downpour from Ike caused the La Quinte river to rise again flooding the city of Gonaives for the second time since Hannah struck. By Sunday evening Gonaives was “a devastated and isolated city,” its mayor reportedly said, “all of our bridges to the rest of the country have collapsed.”

For additional images see: Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

Ike On The North Coast Of Eastern Cuba

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Pasch
• Date and Time: Sept 8, 2008 at 03:00UTC
• Category and Wind Speed: About195 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is still a very dangerous  3B hurricane of FEWW Hurricane Scale. Some weakening is expected as Ike moves over Cuba.

• Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 95 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 km.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 945mb (27.91 inches).
• Storm surge flooding: 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected within the warning area in areas of onshore winds.
• Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next 48 hours.  These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.
• Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over eastern and central Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches possible.  These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.
  • The southern Bahamas: Possible rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches from Ike.
  • Portions of Hispaniola: Additional amounts of 3 to 5 inches.
  • Turks and Caicos islands: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches.
  • Florida Keys: Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

• Latest Photos and Videos

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

Ike: A Deadly Hurricane by any Other Name

2008 Year of the Rain, too?

GOES – Floater Image – UneEnhanced Infrared CH4 – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

FEWW Comment:  Ike has re-restrengthened to a  Category 4A on the FEWW Hurricane Scale (Cat. 4 on Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale)  with extremely dangerous wind speeds of about 215km/hr. It’s outer bands have enveloped the Dominican Republic and the northeastern peripheries of Haiti, moving slowly to cover north [and rest] of the island, where 500 people have already died and up to a million others displaced from previous storms. More rain, flooding, deaths and devastation are to be expected.

Subject to current weather condition and sea temperatures in the Caribbeans and on its forecast path, hurricane Ike may strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane as it approaches/makes landfall in Cuba, striking ferociously at the heart of the tropical island, which is already reeling from the shock of the previous three storms (Fay, Gustav and Hannah) in as many weeks. It’s hoped that the resilient Cuban people would literally “weather the storm.”

Storm Centered Infrared Image. Click here for  JAVA Movie (color enhancement). credit CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering Center – University of Wisconsin- Madison

GOES – Tropical Floater Imagery – Infrared CH 4 – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

GOES EAST – North Atlantic Imagery – JSL2 enhancement – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

Eye of Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Ike Passing Over the Turks Islands

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Avila
• Date and Time:Sept 7, 2008 at 03:00UTC
• Category and Wind Speed: About 215 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is an extremely dangerous category four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale [Cat 4A on FEWW Hurricane Scale]. Some strengthening is
  Possible before Ike moves over eastern Cuba.
• Location: The large eye of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 21.2 north, longitude 70.9 west, very close to the Turks and Caicos Islands.
• Direction: Ike is moving toward the west-southwest near 24 km/hr and this motion is expected to continue Sunday with a gradual turn to the west late Sunday. On this track, the core of the hurricane Will begin to affect the southeastern Bahamas early Sunday.  Ike should then move near the central Bahamas and the northern coast of eastern Cuba Sunday night/early Monday.
• Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 75 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 km.
  
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 947mb (27.96 inches).

• Storm surge flooding: 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels and large and dangerous battering waves can be expected in the warning areas.
• Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next 48 hrs.  These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.

• Rainfall: About 10 to 20 cm (4 to 8 inches) with isolated maximum amounts of 30 cm (12 inches) are expected over the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas. Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could see 15 to 30 cm (6 to 12 inches) of rain with isolated maximum amounts of up to 50cm (20 inches) possible.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over mountainous terrain.

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt…39 mph (tropical storm force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, … , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 39 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended. NOAA/NHC/NWS

Related “Year of the Expected Unknowns” Links:

• This’s Got to Be the Year of Radioactive, Chemical and Oil Spills, Too!
• Will 2008 be year of the tornadoes, too?
• California Fires: Not Hard to Understand!

• 2008: Year of the Expected Unknowns!
• First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities

::

Hurricane Ike, TS Hannah, TS Josephine – Update 9-5

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

• Photos and Videos

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

Tropical Storm Hannah

FEWW Comment: Big Hannah’s torrential rains have already submerged parts of Haiti in more than  two meters of floodwater, leaving about 140 people dead. A nightmare scenario in the US Atlantic coast could unfold, if Hannah were to move in slow motion over the U.S. east coast, as already predicted by NHC, without necessarily making landfall, repeating a similar performance to her Haiti debut.

Updated Tropical Atlantic Imagery – Aviation color enhancement – GOES East – Date and time as shown on image. Credit NOAA/SSD/NESDIS

TS Hannah: Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Track Forecast Cone

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. NOAA/NHC

TS Hannah

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Rhome
• Date and Time: Sept 5, 2008 / 06:00UTC
• Location: The center of tropical storm Hanna was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 77.2 West or about 90 km north of Great Abaco Island and about 790 km south of Wilmington, North Carolina.
• Direction: Hanna is moving toward the northwest. NHC expects a gradual turn to the north with an increase in forward speed later today. The center of Hanna will be near the southeast coast of the United States later Today. However, rains and winds associated with Hanna will reach the coast well in advance of the center.
• Speed: About 30 km/hr.
• Wind Speed: About 105 km/hr with higher gusts. It is still possible for Hanna to become a hurricane.
• Breadth: Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 510 km (v. large) mainly to the north and east of the center.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 984mb (29.05 inches).
• Additional Information: Hanna could produce rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches over the Northern Bahamas and the eastern portions of south and north Carolina, with maximum isolated amounts of 5 inches possible.  Rainfall totals of up to 3 inches are possible from the Georgia coast southward to the central Florida coast. Very heavy rainfall amounts are likely to spread rapidly northward into the mid Atlantic states and New England from Friday night into Saturday and may result in flooding.

Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ike: Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

NOAA/NHC

FEWW Comment: Ike, having strengthened to a very dangerous Category 4B on the FEWW Hurricane Scale just over 24 hours ago, is now slightly downgraded to a category 4A hurricane churning in a westerly direction. If Ike remains on its 5-day NHC-predicted path, and maintains its current strength as a major hurricane (Category 3A or above,) it would sweep over the northern edge of Haiti and the Island of Cuba causing additional destruction on a grand scale, compounding the misery caused by TS Fay, Hurricane Gustav and Hurricane Hannah during the last 19 days.

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Brown
• Date and Time: Sept 5, 2008 at  03:00UTC
• Category and Wind Speed: About 215 km/hr, with higher gusts. Ike is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale [Category 4A on FEWW Hurricane Scale.] Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 to 48 hours.
• Location: The center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 59.5 West or about 760 km north-northeast of the Leeward Islands and about 1,215 km east-northeast of Grand Turk island.
• Direction: Ike is moving in a westerly direction. A turn toward the west-southwest is expected on Friday, and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday.  On this track the hurricane will continue to move over the open waters of the west-central Atlantic during the next 48 hours.
• Speed: About 22 km/hr.
• Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 55 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 km.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 945mb (27.91 inches).

TS Josephine

Coming soon …