MARIA INTENSIFYING, EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY –NHC

MARIA Expected to Become a Major Hurricane Late Monday —National Hurricane Center

MARIA CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN – THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY EVENING –NHC

UPDATE: Current Status as of 2:00 PM AST Mon Sep 18
Max sustained: 125 mph [~ 200 km/h, Cat. 3B on FEWW New Hurricane Scale]
Location: 14.9°N, 60.4°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb

Status as of 8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 18
Max sustained: 110 mph [~ 177 km/h, Cat. 2B on FEWW New Hurricane Scale]
Location: 14.6°N, 59.7°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 967 mb

Related Links:

• https://feww.wordpress.com/satellite-imagery/
• https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

Nature Upgrading Her Forces into Quasi-exotic Weapons?

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,230 Days Left 

[October 29, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

• SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,230 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Symbolic countdown to the ‘worst day’ in human history began on May 15, 2011 ...

.

Global Disasters/ Significant Events

SANDY’s storm surge could be “life-threatening”: NHC

National Hurricane Center (NHC) has described the storm surge threat from Hurricane SANDY as “life-threatening,” ranking the surge and wave “destruction potential” for the hurricane alone, not including the combined force of the hybrid storm, which it could eventually become,  at 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6.

• SANDY could be the largest storm ever to hit the United States, said NHC.
• The massive storm could affect tens of millions of people hundreds of miles along the Atlantic Coast.
• Some coastal parts of New York and New Jersey could experience surge and waves of up to 11 feet, judging by Hurricane SANDY’s size, said NHC.

• New York Mayor has ordered the evacuation of more than 375,000 people in low-lying areas.
• Some 50,000 people in Delaware and 30,000 in Atlantic City, N.J. have also been evacuated.
• At least 5,000 flights have been cancelled.
• Flooding caused by the storm surge is expected to be particularly severe because the storm’s arrival coincides with a full moon, which causes higher tides.
• Up to 284,000 residential properties valued at $88 billion could sustain damage from storm-surge flooding, according to risk analysts CoreLogic, Reuters reported.
• The massive storm has already claimed at least 66 lives in the Caribbean.
• The Disaster President has declared States of Emergency for New York and Massachusetts.
• States of emergency have also been declared by the governors in Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia and the District of Columbia.

Hurricane SANDY – IR Sat Image (NHC Enhancement).  SANDY was centered about 420 miles south of New York City, at 00:01UTC on Monday moving NE, parallel to the Atlantic coast, at about 15 mph.  Image source: CIMSS.

Global Disasters/ Significant Events

Myanmar

• “The UN has reported that over 22,000 people were displaced in a week of renewed sectarian fighting between Buddhists and Muslims living on Myanmar’s west coast. The total number of displaced since violence erupted in June is now around 100,000 [with at least 200 dead or injured, and more than 3,000 homes destroyed,]” said a report.

NW Pacific: TYPHOON SON-TINH

• “More than 80,000 people in south China’s Hainan Province have been relocated following the arrival of Typhoon Son-Tinh, which has brought gales and downpours to the region since Saturday,” said a report.
  

SW Pacific

• Good bye SOWPI.

Related Links

• Hurricane SANDY Could Become a Super Storm Posted October 27, 2012
• Hurricane SANDY Causes Much Destruction in Cuba Posted October 26, 2012

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

GLOBAL WARNING

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!

Hurricane SANDY Causes Much Destruction in Cuba

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,233 Days Left 

[October 26, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. 

• SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,233 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Symbolic countdown to the ‘worst day’ in human history began on May 15, 2011 ...

.

Global Disasters/ Significant Events

SANDY leaves at least two dozen people dead across the Caribbean

The deadly hurricane slammed into Cuba with 180kph winds, leaving behind a trail of destruction.

Santiago de Cuba, the country’s second largest city, took a direct hit from the Cat 3A hurricane, when the storm landed  early Thursday morning.

Hurricane SANDY

Hurricane SANDY Slamming into the Bahamas afetr leaving behind a deadly trail of destruction in Jamaica and Cuba. IR Sat Image (NHC Enhancement)  sourced from CIMSS.

• “Everything is destroyed in Santiago [located about 470 miles SE of Havana; population of >500,000.] People are going to have to work very hard to recover,” a resident of the city, told Reuters.
• The deadly hurricane has reportedly destroyed or damaged many of the city’s 300,000 homes.
• A local TV reporter has described Santiago de Cuba as “a city without trees” after so many were uprooted by SANDY.
• As of 3:00am EDT, SANDY had claimed at least two dozen lives across the Caribbean.
• The hurricane could land along the Mid-Atlantic coast next week.
• Hurricane warnings, storm warnings and watches are in effect along the entire east coast of Florida and Mid-Atlantic coast, as of posting ( Updated Friday @ 9:30UTC ).

SANDY Leaves Battered Bahamas

Hurricane SANDY leaving the Bahamas after battering the islands. IR Sat Image sourced from CIMSS.

Australia

Far western portion of the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) has been declared a disaster area after bushfires scorched 25,000 hectares of land  in less than a week, a report said.

Myanmar

State of Emergency has been declared  by the Myanmar government after five days of deadly violence between the Buddhists majority and Rohingya people, which have left about 100 dead and thousands of homes burned.

• This week’s clashed are said to be the worst since violence flared up in June, which left at least 80 people dead and up to a 100,000 forced out of their homes, after an alleged rape.
• Myanmar’s estimated 800,000 Rohingya, who are officially stateless, are one of the most persecuted minorities in the world, according to the U.N.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

GLOBAL WARNING

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!

Awesome EARL Powers Toward U.S. Coast

What’s worse than a major hurricane making landfall?

EARL Now a Cat 4B Hurricane Packing Sustained Winds of 235km/hr, Intensifying

Hurricane EARL – GOES Satellite Floater Imagery. Click image to enlarge

Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Image

Animate image. Click image to enlarge.

Hurricane Earl

Hurricane EARL – natural-color image was captured by MODIS on NASA’s Aqua satellite at 2 p.m. EDT on September 1, 2010. The Bahamas are immediately west of the storm. Download large image (6 MB, JPEG) – Image acquired September 1, 2010. Click image to enlarge.

Hurricane Earl – The Astronaut View

This photograph was captured with a digital SLR camera by a NASA astronaut, Douglas Wheelock, on August 30, 2010, showing Earl with a distinct eye that spanned about 28 kilometers. Full caption here.

POES Composite  –  (Daily Sea Surface Temps)

• Atlantic Ocean Current Temp: Image – Loop\

Other Satellite Images o EARL

Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD). West Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement). Click image to enlarge.

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD).  Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared. Click image to animate.

For more images and animation, go to Satellite Imagery

Related Links:

• Hurricane EARL Public Advisory (watches and warnings)

• Storm Extravaganza
• The Storm Trio
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale
• Satellite Imagery

Hurricane Jimena: No Prisoners

Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Jimena Inches Toward The Baja Peninsula

Making landfall probably as a Category 4 to 5 Hurricane, Jemina could cause extensive  coastal flooding along the Baja California coastline.

Hurricane Jimena -Rainbow enhancement – Still Image. Click image to enlarge and update.

Summary of Hurricane Jimena Current Status

Time/Date:  5:00 AM PDT Tuesday, September 1, 2009 (12:00 UTC)

• Location: 20.6°N 110.4°W [About 250 Km (155 miles) south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico and About 505 km (315 miles) SSE of Cabo San Lazaro Mexico.]

• Max sustained: 250 km/h (155 mph)

• Moving: NNW (330 degrees) at 19 km/h (12 mph)

• Min pressure: 69.8 cmHg (931 mb)

• Jimena is not very large in size. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 75 km (45 miles) from the center, and tropical storm force up to 220 km (140 miles).

• At its current forward speed, Jimena should be approaching the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula by tonight local time (PDT).

NHC Warning:

• Hurricane warning remains in effect for the southern portion of the Baja California and other areas [See latest NHC Advisory]

• Conditions are expected to deteriorate over the southern portion of the warning area later today and preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

• For storm information specific to your area, monitor your national meteorological service.

Related Links and additional images:

• Hurricane JIMENA

Hurricane Jimena UPDATES Are  Posted at:

• Hurricanes 2009

Hurricane JIMENA

Dangerous Jimena Inches Northwestward

Summary of Hurricane Jimena Current Status

Time/date:  5:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 31 (00:00 UTC Tuesday Sept 1, 2009)
Location: 18.8°N 109.2°W
Max sustained: 250 km/h (155 mph)
Moving: NW (315 degrees) at 16 km/h (10 mph)
Min pressure: 69.8 cmHg (931 mb)

Fed by the warm coastal waters, Jimena may remain a major hurricane until landfall.

HNC Advises:

• Hurricane warning remains in effect for the southern portion of the Baja California and other areas [See latest NHC Advisory]
• Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
• For storm information specific to your area, monitor your national meteorological service.

Hurricane Jimena- Still Frame – see image for date. To enlarge and update, click on the image.

POES Composite – (Daily Sea Surface Temperatures) – Still Image. To enlarge and update, click on th eimage.

Still Image. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

Still Image. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

Still Image. Click on the image to enlarge and update.

Hurricane Jimena UPDATES Are  Posted at:

• Hurricanes 2009

Related Links:

• https://feww.wordpress.com/atlantic-hurricanes-2009/

Norbert Makes Landfall in Mainland Mexico

Norbert Made Landfall in Mainland Mexico after Battering Baja California Sur with Heavy Rains and 166kmph Winds

Hurricane Norbert: JSL2 enhancement satellite image –  Still frame  dated Oct 12, 2008 at 07:30UTC – Source: NOAA/SSDSI

NORBERT MADE LANDFALL AND IS NOW INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER MAINLAND MEXICO

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Pasch
• Date and Time: October 12, 2008 at 06:00UTC
• Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning remains in effect for the coast of mainland Mexico from Topolobampo northward to Guaymas.
• Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the coast of mainland Mexico from south of Topolobampo southward to Altata.
• Current Location: At 0600UTC the center of Norbert was located inland near latitude 27.1 north,longitude 108.6 west or about 65 105 km east-northeast of Huatabampo Mexico.
• Category and Wind Speed: Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 120 Km/hr, with higher gusts.  Norbert is a category one hurricane on Saffir-Simpson scale [and on FEWW Hurricane Scale.] Rapid weakening is likely as Norbert Moves over the mountainous terrain of Mexico.
• Direction: Norbert is moving toward the northeast at 33 km/hr and this general motion is expected to continue today.  On this track the center of Norbert will continue moving over northwestern Mexico overnight and during the day on Sunday.  The remnants of Norbert will likely move into the southwestern united states Sunday Evening.
• Wind Force Extent: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 280 km.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 987mb (29.15 inches).
• Rainfall: Norbert is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 cm over portions of northwestern Mexico, with possible isolated amounts of up to 25 cm.  These rains could result in life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Norbert or its remnants could produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 5 cm over portions of the southwestern united states through Sunday morning.

Cumulative Wind History

This graphic shows how the size of the storm has changed, and the areas potentially affected so far by sustained winds of tropical storm force (in orange) and hurricane force (in red). The display is based on the wind radii contained in the set of Forecast/Advisories indicated at the top of the figure. Users are reminded that the Forecast/Advisory wind radii represent the maximum possible extent of a given wind speed within particular quadrants around the tropical cyclone. As a result, not all locations falling within the orange or red swaths will have experienced sustained tropical storm or hurricane force winds, respectively. Source: Caption and Image: NHC/NOAA

Hurricane Norbert Now a Cat 2 off Pacific Mexico

Update No.3: Norbert Makes Landfall in Mainland Mexico

Update No.2: Norbert Strengthens to a Cat 4 Hurricane

Update: Oct 8, 2008 – 09:00UTC Norbert is a major hurricane with sustained winds of 185km/hr with higher gusts, additional strengthening forecast.

Norbert, the 7th hurricane of the East Pacific season, strengthened off Mexico’s Pacific coast and is forecast to become a major hurricane before landfall at Baja California peninsula

Hurricane Details

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Beven
• Date and Time: October 8, 2008 at 03:00UTC
• Current Location: The center of hurricane Norbert was located near latitude 15.7 north, longitude 109.0 west or about 805 km south of the southern tip of Baja California.
• Category and Wind Speed: Maximum sustained winds have increased to 165 km/hr with higher gusts.  Norbert is a Category 2A on FEWW Hurricane Scale (cat. two on the Saffir-Simpson scale) and is expected to become a major hurricane on Wednesday.
• Direction: Norbert is moving toward the west-northwest at 17 km/hr. This general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday with a turn toward the northwest expected on Thursday.
• Wind Force Extent: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 165 km.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 970 mb (28.64 inches).

Hurricane NORBERT

Image frozen – date and time as indicated. Source: NOAA.

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

Image Source: NOAA/NHC

Related Links:

• World Now (Index page)
• Weather

Image of the Day: While You Were Away …

NO: A Ghost Town

A copy of The Times-Picayune is displayed on a deserted downtown street after the evacuation of New Orleans, prior to the arrival of Hurricane Gustav, August 31, 2008. REUTERS/ Mark Wallheiser. Image may be subject to copyright.

Related Links:

• Ghost towns
• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities

Breaking News: Gustav Now Category Three Hurricane

Latest Update: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

Gustav Strengthened to a Dangerous Category Three Hurricane

As of a Few minutes ago Gustav strengthened to a dangerous category three hurricane, National Hurricane Center reported.

Hurricane Gustav Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl   Al072008
06:00 EDT (02:00 UTC) Sat Aug 30 2008

… Gustav continues to rapidly strengthen and now has maximum winds near 185 km/hr (115 mph) with higher gusts.  This makes Gustav a dangerous category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane
scale, the second major hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season.  Forecaster Blake/Avila

Hurricane Gustav – Category 3 – GOES (still satellite image printed for comparison) Rainbow Color Enhancement IR CH 4. Credit: NOAA – NHC

GEOS Floater (updated) Rainbow Color Enhancement IR CH 4. Credit: NOAA – NHC

Based on the FEWW model, Moderators believe there’s a very strong probability that Gustav, as he gets closer to the Isle of Youth, could strengthen to a category four hurricane within the next 12 hours before making landfall in the west-southwestern Cuba. There’s a medium to strong probability that Gustav could remain a category four hurricane as it leaves Cuba and strengthen to a giant category five hurricane within the next 24 to 36 hours, after it enters the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Watch this space!

For additional images see:

• Hurricane Gustav [VII]
• Hurricane Gustav to Feed on Warm Waters
• TS Gustav Latest Update
• TSs Hannah and Gustav
• Hurricane Gustav Strengthens to Category TWO

Hurricane Gustav to Feed on Warm Waters

Latest Update: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

Warm Waters in the S and SW Coast of Cuba Await Gustav

Real Time POES Composite Imagery Atlantic/East Pacific
(Daily Sea Surface Temperatures)

Image Source: NOAA

Warm waters in the 30-35ºC temp. range (shown in firebrick red) surrounding the south and southwestern coast of Cuba await hurricane Gustave as it leaves Haiti. Gustav may strengthen into a cat. three/four hurricane.

NHC Hurricane GUSTAV Forecast Discussion (No. 7):

Center of Gustav made landfall around 17:30 UTC.  A minimum pressure of 992 mb was reported just as the center moved inland. As the center is moving over the mountainous terrain of the southwest peninsula of Haiti, Gustav is likely losing strength.  The eye is no longer evident on satellite images, and the system could weaken below hurricane intensity tonight.  However, the upper-level environment remains favorable for intensification with only a little north-northeasterly shear, and therefore Gustav is likely to regain strength as it approaches the Windward Passage and eastern Cuba tomorrow.

Gustav – GOES Infrared Image – University of Wisconsin – Madison – CIMSS Tropical Cyclones page

Latest News Update:

“Given the current track for Gustav and the expectation that it might enter the Gulf of Mexico this weekend, we are making logistical arrangements to evacuate staff who are not essential to production or drilling operations,” Shell said in a statement.

“Evacuations could begin as early as Wednesday. There is no impact on production at this time.” (Source: AFP)

An oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico. Source: AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

PORT-AU-PRINCE (Reuters) – Hurricane Gustav slammed into flood-prone Haiti on Tuesday, killing at least two people.

The only reliable mode of transport! Joggers run through flooded streets after torrential rains hit Havana August 26, 2008. REUTERS/Claudia Daut. Image may be subject to copyright.

PORT-AU-PRINCE (AFP) — Hurricane Gustav slammed into Haiti, killing at least five as it lashed the desperately poor Caribbean nation with powerful winds and heavy rain, just days behind deadly Tropical Storm Fay.

People, carrying belongings, crosses a street flooded by rain caused by Hurricane Gustav in Port-au-Prince,Tuesday, Aug. 26, 2008. Gustav barreled into Haiti on Tuesday, toppling trees, dumping rain and sending fuel prices soaring on fears the storm could become “extremely dangerous” when it reaches the Gulf of Mexico. (AP Photo/Ariana Cubillos). Image may be subject to copyright.

• Hurricane Gustav hits Haiti, drives up oil prices (AP Video)
• As Fay soaks us, keep an eye out for Gustav (WBIR-TV, TN )
• Jindal vows to skip convention if Gustav threatens (KATC)
  

Hurricane Gustav [VII]

Latest Update: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

Aug 29 – 03:00 UTC: TS Gustav Latest Update

Aug 27 Update: Hurricane Gustav to Feed on Warm Waters

Hurricane Gustav VII [the seventh storm of the Atlantic hurricane season] is Heading Toward Haiti

With powerful winds of 140 km/h (85mph), Gustav is churning through Caribbeans heading toward south-west Haiti, likely to wreak havoc and cause much devastation in the region.

Hurricane Gustav is seen in this satellite image dated August 26, 2008. REUTERS/NOAA/Handout

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone – NOAA/NWS

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. NOAA-NWS

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 64 kt…74 mph (hurricane force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 74 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, … , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 74 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended. NOAA-NWS

Gustav Could Become a Cat. Two Hurricane Before Landfall in Haiti

Gustav became stronger as it neared the south coast of Haiti, NHC reported.  Here’re the highlights of NHC Hurricane Advisory:

• A hurricane warning remains in effect from Barahona in the Dominican Republic westward to Le Mole St Nicholas Haiti.

• A hurricane watch is also in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Granma, Holguin, Santiago de Cuba and Guantanamo.  A hurricane watch is also in effect for Jamaica.

• At 8:00 am EDT the center of hurricane Gustav was located near latitude 17.5 north, longitude 72.0 west or about 125 km south-southeast of Port Au Prince Haiti and about 425 km southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.

• Gustav continues moving toward the northwest at 15 km/hr today with a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed forecast on Wednesday.  On this track this hurricane should move over Southwestern Haiti later today and near or just south of  Eastern Cuba on Wednesday.

• Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 Km/hr with higher gusts.  Gustav is a category one hurricane on The Saffir-Simpson scale.  The hurricane could become a category Two hurricane before landfall in Haiti later today.

• Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 110 km.

• The latest minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).

Hurricane Gustav – GOES Infrared AVN Color Floater Imagery – 30 minute updates

Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 7 inches over southern Hispaniola and Jamaica with isolated maximum amounts of up to 15 inches are possible.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. — Forecaster Brown/Pasch

“Oil prices in Asia rose Tuesday on concerns Hurricane Gustav may disrupt oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.” AP reported.

“It’s hard to predict where Gustav will strike,” an analyst in Singapore reported. “But the market is reacting to it and edging up some.”

“Light, sweet crude for October delivery was up 58 cents at $115.69 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract rose 52 cents overnight to settle at $115.11 a barrel.”

On its forecast track and anticipated strength, Gustav could cause significant disruptions to offshore oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico.

REM: You read it hear first! 😉

Latest Update: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

Fay Heads North Toward SW Florida Coast

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. (NOAA)

TS Fay – Short Wave IR Image – GOES Floater Imagery – 30 minute updates – NOAA

Fay struck Cuba’s south coast with 80km winds and heavy rain. She was expected to drop as much 20cm (8 inches) of rain over the island, having left a deadly trail across the Caribbean.

National Weather Service Enhanced Radar Mosaic

Base Reflectivity – Southeast Sector – NOAA – NWS

About 10,000 people including tourists in western and central areas of Cuba have been evacuated, boats were pulled out of water, temporary shelters and food distribution centers were set up.

State of Florida have deployed 500 National Guards, and Florida Keys are being evacuated.

In Haiti a bus plunged into a swollen river, killing 50 people. Many of the dead were swept away like “driftwood,” said the Mayor of Bomont, Haiti. Others, including several children, drowned while trapped in the sunken vehicle.

Five others were killed in Haiti and the neighboring Dominican Republic in flood-related accidents.

A couple died in Kingston, Jamaica when their car was swept away by floodwater.

Shell Oil and Marathon Oil have reportedly pulled as many as 700 workers from offshore facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

Related Links:

• TS Fay Public Advisory No. 13A
• Fay May Strengthen to Hurricane Force
• Weather
• World Now (Weather and Image Links)
• Tropical Storm Fay Forms

Revved-up Bertha Becomes A Hurricane Again!

Will she hold her strength this time despite the official forecast?

Hurricane Bertha: Satellite image July 19, 2008 00:15UTC – NOAA

Related Links:

• Bertha Revving UP!

• Weather
• Watch out! Big Bertha might be heading your way!
• Bertha public advisory

• Previous UPDATE: HURRICANE BERTHA
• Bertha slows down, but her large eye looks menacing

HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 63
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST FRI JUL 18 2008

…BERTHA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN…

AT 500 PM AST…2100Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 50.6 WEST OR ABOUT 640 MILES…
1035 KM…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH…35 KM/HR…AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BERTHA SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND
BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES…75 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES…280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB…29.21 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION…37.6 N…50.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…989 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Arthur Starts the Hurricane Season

Arthur Forms Punctually Near Belize City, Mexico

Tropical storm Arthur, Atlantic’s first named storm for 2008, lashed Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula with strong winds of about 40 mph (65 kph), dumping heavy rains on Saturday.

Infrared image GOES Floater (updated every hour or so). NOAA – National Hurricane Center

As if with clockwork precision, Arthur was formed just hours before the official June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season about 75 miles (125 km) northwest of Belize City, Mexico.

Alma, the tropical storm formed in the Pacific, fizzled out on Friday after sloshing Nicaragua’s Pacific coast, killing three people.

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (purple). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. (Graph and caption NOAA)

Related Information:

• OceanView –GOES Floater Imagery for Atlantic and Pacific Oceans
• A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone

Related Links:

• Will 2008 be year of the tornadoes, too?
• Tropical Cyclones
• 33 percent More Disasters