FIRE-EARTH Presentation: Scorpion Typhoon, Vulture Hurricane

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• UUT
• OCT

FIRE-EARTH Presentation:

Scorpion Typhoon, Vulture Hurricane

Prepared by FIRE-EARTH Science, available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

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Record-Breaker Hurricane PATRICIA Continues Intensifying

Updated at 15:02UTC

Witnessing historic climate extremes in the making at the speed of light – we told you there would be interesting times ahead!

SUPER PATRICIA BECOMES THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD
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MEGA HURRICANE PATRICIA HEADING FOR POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO: NHC

PATRICIA packing sustained winds in excess of 320 KM/HR, according to the National Hurricane Center.

FIRE-EARTH Models show [probability= 0.7] Super PATRICIA intensifying further to an “Extraterrestrial” Category with  maximum sustained winds of about 340 km/hr and maximum wind gusts of near 410 km/hr.

10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 [12:00UTC] – NHC
Location: 17.6°N 105.5°W
Moving: N at 10 mph (15 km/hr)
Min pressure: 880 mb
Max sustained: 200 mph (320 km/hr)  [could intensify to 340 km/hr – FEWW]
Max wind gusts: 395 km/hr [FIRE-EARTH estimate; could increase to 410 km/hr, probability of 0.7]
Max significant wave heights: 17m

POES Composite  –  (Daily Sea Surface Temperatures – SSD/NOAA)

SST near the hurricane’s projected landfall was in excess of 30ºC, as of posting. See image below.

• SST Color Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/H5/sst-pac-loop.html

visible satellite imagery – image taken at 13;15UTC October 23, 2015. Source: UW-CIMSS

Links to satellite images are posted at https://feww.wordpress.com/satellite-imagery/

Related Links

• Mega Hurricane PATRICIA Headed for Mexico October 23, 2015

Mega Hurricane PATRICIA Headed for Mexico

Potentially catastrophic Hurricane PATRICIA grows into a mega storm, with sustained winds of near 300 km/hr

PATRICIA has grown into a Mega Storm, a monster Category 5 hurricane, with sustained winds of about 300 km/hr, as it bore down on central Mexico’s Pacific coast, prompting the authorities to declare a state of emergency.

“This is an extremely dangerous, potentially catastrophic hurricane,” said the U.S. National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane warnings were in effect for the Mexican coast from San Blas to Punta San Telmo, including Manzanillo and Puerto Vallarta.

PATRICIA is forecast to bring 150 to 300mm of rain, with isolated amounts of up to 500mm possible in some locations.

Hurricane Warning Position NHC

12:30 AM CDT Fri Oct 23  [05:30UTC Fri Oct 23]
Location: 16.5°N, 105.3°W
Moving: NNW at 10 mph (16 km/hr)
Min pressure: 892 mb
Max sustained wind: 185 mph (295 km/hr)
Max wind gusts: 355 km/hr [FIRE-EARTH estimate]
Max significant wave heights: 16m

Links to satellite images are posted at https://feww.wordpress.com/satellite-imagery/

Powerful Rainstorms Pound E. US, N. Philippines, much of Japan

Heavy rainfall and flash flooding affecting parts of East Coast

Hurricane JOAQUIN a double whammy regardless of track

Many parts of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These rainstorms could continue for the next few days, even if the center of Hurricane JOAQUIN stays offshore. The resulting inland flood potential could complicate preparations for JOAQUIN, specially if heads toward the coast, where even more substantial inland flooding could occur. —NOAA

Philippines

Tropical Storm KABAYAN, packing strong winds, dumped heavy rain within a 300-km radius of the center of storm, before exiting landmass.

At 11:00 AM on 02 October 2015 the storm center was located at 16.5°N, 119.6°E about 95 km Northwest of Dagupan City, Pangasinan. The storm was headed toward West Philippine Sea.

Japan

Powerful rainstorms with typhoon-strength winds, generated by a broad low pressure system, pumelled most of Japan overnight, causing major diruptions in transportation and forcing flight and train cancellations.

Strong gusts and heavy rain from the system are forecast to continue until Friday afternoon, said the local forecasters.

Significant Quake, Tropical Storm ISELLE Strike Hawaii

EXTREME WEATHER & CLIMATIC HAZARDS
SEISMIC HAZARD
SCENARIOS 888, 066, 055, 024, 023, 09, 08, 07
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Big Island Struck by Significant Earthquake, TS ISELLE

Centered at 20.079°N, 155.793°W, a magnitude 4.5 quake struck about 12km WNW of Waimea, Hawaii at a depth of 16.8km (10.4mi, at 16:24:04 UTC on Friday.

Meantime, Tropical Storm ISELLE battered the island, knocking down trees and power lines, and forcing more than 1,200 people to evacuate their homes.

The second of two major storms, the more powerful Hurricane JULIO, is headed directly toward the archipelago.

JULIO has been upgraded to a Category 3 hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of about 195 km/h, moving toward the island at about 25 km/h.

Hawaii Gov.  Abercrombie signed an emergency proclamation on Wednesday in anticipation of the arrival of the two tropical storms.

“The proclamation, which includes the entire state, activates the Major Disaster Fund set aside by the Legislature for disaster relief. It also allows easier access to emergency resources at the state and federal levels, along with the suspension of certain laws as needed for emergency purposes,” said a statement posted on his website.

The disaster emergency relief period for the proclamation continues through August 15, 2014.

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IMPORTANT NOTICE: FIRE-EARTH EQ Forecasts – For detailed FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts tune into FIRE-EARTH Reports daily @ 06:32UTC.

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More Severe Storms to Hit the UK, Tens of Thousands Without Power

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS

Tens of Thousands of UK homes remain without power, 1,200 flooded, as more hurricane-force winds and heavy rains threaten Europe

The UK authorities have warned of further significant disruption from floods in southern England, and issued more than 200 flood warnings and alerts throughout England and Wales.

Damage from the last round of storms has caused power cuts and travel delays, as more severe storms approach the country.

River Medway. Photo taken from the Redhill Police and Air Ambulance reveal the extent of the flooding on the Medway, Kent, England. Source: Kent Police Pictures.

Tens of thousands of passengers were stranded before Christmas, with scores of flight delays and cancellations    after flooding caused a major power failure in the airport, said a report.

The authorities at  Gatwick airport called the weather “unprecedented.”

Meantime, the UK Met Office is warning of another storm system from the Atlantic which is forecast to hit the country by early Friday.

Hurricane force winds with gusts of up to 150 km/h (80mph) are forecast for some coastal areas, said the report.

Group Forecast:  Climate change could directly affect about half the population in the UK  in the next 3 to 5 years  posted on November 20, 2009.

Related Links

• Thousands Lose Power as Storm Hits UK December 19, 2013
• Mega Storm Threatens Biggest Tidal Surge in History  December 6, 2013

What you should know by now

• RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!
• Critical Overload Threatens Planetary Life Support Systems

Other Links

• Heavy Snow and Arctic Gales to Hit UK Thursday  December 4, 2013

• Britain Set for “Worst Winter in History” December 2, 2013
• ‘Catastrophic Losses’ of Animals Feared due to UK Spring Snow Posted on March 26, 2013
• How Homo Ignarus Killed Spring Posted on March 21, 2013
• Intensifying Winter Drought in England Worst Since 1888 Posted on March 12, 2012

Hurricane RAYMOND Shuts Down Mexico’s SW Coast

Hurricane RAYMOND becomes quasi-stationary near Mexico’s  Pacific coast forcing hundreds of evacuations

RAYMOND, a CAT4A hurricane, has become quasi-stationary with sustained winds of about 210 km/hr gusting up to 260km/hr located about 150km offshore SW Pacific coast of Mexico. The hurricane is expected to move closer to the coast before making a u-turn and heading out to ocean.

Hurricane RAYMOND. VISIBLE/INFRARED satellite image (FIRE-EARTH Enhancement) recorded at 00:30UTC on October 22, 2013. Original image sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

The hurricane continues to dump steady rain on the storm-battered resort of Acapulco, the scene of death and much devastation caused by the twin storms MANUEL and INGRID in September.

Hurricane alerts are have been issued for Guerrero and Michoacan states, prompting authorities to evacuate about 900 people.

Thousands of people are still living in shelters in Acapulco following the mid-September historic flooding that killed more than 150 people and caused widespread devastation estimated at about $6 billion.

“If [Hurricane RAYMOND] carries on moving at this speed and the cold front keeps holding it, we’ll have permanent rain for the next 72 hours,” said head of Mexico’s national emergency services.

“The flooding, mudslides and displacement of thousands of people caused by the recent storms have heightened the risk of waterborne illness in Mexico. The country has recorded its first local transmission of cholera in just over a decade,” said a report.

More details to follow…

Related Links

• TS RAYMOND forms off Mexico, threatens Acapulco with more rain October 20, 2013
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale
• Satellite Imagery

Earlier Events

• MANUEL and INGRID Kill Dozens in Mexico Posted on September 16, 2013
• INGRID Forces Thousands to Seek Emergency Shelter Posted on September 15, 2013
• Death Toll from Mexico Storms Climbs to 110 Posted on September 23, 2013
• Global Disasters/ Significant Events – September 21, 2013 Posted on September 21, 2013
• The Second Coming of MANUEL Posted on September 19, 2013
• Global Disaster Headlines – September 18, 2013
• Twin Storms Leave 42 Dead, 1.2 Million Battered  September 17, 2013

TS RAYMOND forms off Mexico, threatens Acapulco with more rain

Tropical storm RAYMOND could dump more rain on storm-battered Acapulco

RAYMOND formed off Mexico’s Pacific coast on Sunday, threatening to dump more heavy rain on the storm-batted resort of Acapulco.

The storm will likely become a hurricane within 48 hours, said the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch in Guerrero state from Acapulco, which is still recovering from deadly floods in September, to the port of Lazaro Cardenas.

The storm could dump significant amounts of rain on the region over the next few days causing life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, said NHC.

Tropical storms MANUEL and INGRID converged from the Pacific and Gulf of Mexico in September, dumping record rain on the region, which triggered historic flooding, killing more than 150 people and causing widespread devastation estimated at about $6 billion.

RAYMOND – Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

Source: NHC

Related Links

• MANUEL and INGRID Kill Dozens in Mexico Posted on September 16, 2013
• INGRID Forces Thousands to Seek Emergency Shelter Posted on September 15, 2013
• Death Toll from Mexico Storms Climbs to 110 Posted on September 23, 2013
• Global Disasters/ Significant Events – September 21, 2013 Posted on September 21, 2013
• The Second Coming of MANUEL Posted on September 19, 2013
• Global Disaster Headlines – September 18, 2013
• Twin Storms Leave 42 Dead, 1.2 Million Battered  September 17, 2013

FL, LA Declare States of Emegency as TS KAREN Progresses

TS KAREN prompts Florida, Louisiana Govs. to declare states of emergency 

Scott declares a state of emergency for 18 Panhandle counties as KAREN approaches

Gov. Scott has declared a state of emergency for 18 Panhandle counties in preparation for Tropical Storm KAREN.

KAREN is forecast to hit the northern Gulf Coast over the weekend as a weak hurricane or tropical storm, dumping up to 8 inches of rain in some areas.

The storm is expected to reach hurricane or near hurricane force by late Friday/ early Saturday, said NHC.

A hurricane watch is currently in effect from Grand Isle, LA, to west of Destin, FL.

TS KAREN – GOES-EAST Satellite Image IR Channel 4 – JSL2 enhancement – recorded at 02:45UTC on October 4, 2013.

Louisiana Gov. declares state of emergency due to TS KAREN

Gov. Jindal has declared a state of emergency in Louisiana in response to the Tropical Storm KAREN. The state of emergency will extend from October 3 through November 1, 2013 unless it’s terminates sooner by the government.

His proclamation reads: “Tropical Storm Karen is currently moving up the Yucatan Peninsula and is moving slowly northwestward toward the State of Louisiana and the Gulf Coast, posing a threat of extremely heavy rainfall resulting in very high tides for coastal parishes and the possibility of flash floods for coastal parishes and inland parishes through the weekend of Saturday, October 5, 2013.

“The National Weather Service predicts this storm has the potential to develop hurricane force winds and make landfall between Southeast Louisiana and the Florida panhandle on Saturday.”

Jindal said an emergency declaration was warranted since the National Weather Service “has issued a Hurricane Watch, a Tropical Storm Watch and a Coastal Flood Advisory for the next 72 hours for parts of southeastern Louisiana, placing the lives and property of the citizens of this State in jeopardy.”

Related Links

• Tropical Storm KAREN Forms Over The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico October 3, 2013

Hurricane SANDY Could Become a Super Storm

DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,232 Days Left 

[October 27, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

• SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,232 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Symbolic countdown to the ‘worst day’ in human history began on May 15, 2011 ...

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Global Disasters/ Significant Events

SANDY prompts States of Emergency Along Atlantic Coast: “Frankenstorm” threatens the East Coast after killing dozens in the Caribbean

Hurricane SANDY, dubbed the “Frankenstorm,” which caused numerous deaths and large-scale destruction in the Caribbean, especially Cuba, has prompted governors in states along the Atlantic coast to declare states of emergency, issuing warnings and planning mass evacuations.

• Maryland, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia and the District of Columbia have declared states of emergency ahead of the storm’s arrival.
• SANDY has claimed dozens of lives in the Caribbean.
• The massive storm is expected to merge with at least two other weather systems that are moving out of the Eastern U.S. and become a “hybrid” super storm.

Hurricane SANDY. IR Sat Image (NHC Enhancement). Source: CIMSS.

Click Image to enlarge. Click HERE to Animate Image. (Source: SSEC/Wisc-Uni)

CONTINUED…

ISSAC: Four Gulf Coast States Declare Emergencies

Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida and Alabama declare states of emergency, issue evacuation orders as TS ISSAC approaches

Four Gulf Coast states declared states of emergency as tropical storm ISSAC reached the mouth of GoM. Evacuation orders have been issued for the residents in the storm’s path.  The storm was expected to intensify to hurricane strength over the warmer waters.

Tropical Storm ISSAC. VIS/IR Sat Image. See inset for time. Source UW-CIMSS

ISSAC as of 03:00 UTC Sun Aug 26
Location: 24.2°N 82.9°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained winds: 65 mph

 Tropical Storm Force Wind Probability

TS ISAAC. Tropical Storm Force Wind Probability Chart. Source: NHC/NWS

Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events

• El Salvador.  Powerful Magnitude 7.3 quake struck offshore El Salvador about 133 km (82 miles) S of Santiago de Maria, at 04:37UTC on Monday, August 27, 2012, USGS/EHP reported.
  • The quake was epicentered 12.278°N, 88.528°W and struck at a depth 20.3 km (12.6 miles).
  • A tsunami warning was issued for Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Panama and Mexico, but no significant wave was reported, as of posting (~ 11:40UTC).

• Kuril Islands, Russia. The Ivan Grozny (“Ivan the Terrible”) volcano on Iturup Island (Kuril islands group) erupted again, early Monday.
  • The volcano first erupted Thursday morning spewing a column of ash onto the surrounding towns of Goryachiye Klyuchi (10 km) and Kurilsk (25 km).

Other Storms

• TEMBIN Could Hit Taiwan Multiple Times Posted August 24, 2012

Related Links

• Satellite imagery
• Hurricane Warning
• U.S. Tornado Potential

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

GLOBAL WARNINGS

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!

Fierce typhoon CHABA may miss Japan

Typhoon CHABA strengthens to a cat. 4A force, may steer away from Japan

CHABA is moving NE with maximum sustained winds of about 225 km/hr [FEWW estimate]

See: FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Click image to enlarge. Source: Digital Typhoon

Typhoon CHABA – IR Satellite Image (NHC Enhancement) – 2km res. Source: CIMSS

Typhoon CHABA – IR Satellite Image (NHC Enhancement) – 4km res. Source: CIMSS

Typhoon CHABA Projected Paths. Source: CIMSS.

Cyclone GELANE UPDATE 2 (Feb 19)

TC GELANE Strengthens to a Category 3A Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

With sustained winds of about 190 km/hr (gusts of up to 235 km/hr), Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) is now a Category 3A Hurricane on  FEWW New Hurricane Scale. Fire-Earth believes the cyclone would reach Category 4A strength, possibly stronger, as forecast yesterday.

The system is expected to continue intensifying during the next 36 hours. The coral reef island of Rodrigues should expect heavy rain as the cyclone moves closer.

Cyclone GELANE. Water Vapor satellite images. Source: UW-CIMSS.  Click images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) Details

• Date/Time: 19 February 2010 –  01:00 UTC
• Position:  Near 16.3ºS, 62.5ºE
• Sustained Movement: 180  degrees
  
• Forward speed:  9 km/hr ( 5 kt)
• The system has been tracking  SOUTH over the past 6 hours.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds:  190km/hr (102 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 235 km/hr (~ 125kt)
• GELANE is currently a Cat. 3A Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 9m (27 ft)
  
• Location: TC GELANE was located about ~ 885 km (~ 475 NM) NE of Réunion island.
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

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GELANE through the eye of TRMM. Credit: NASA/SSAI

Related Links:

• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18)
• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S)
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18)

TC GELANE Strengthens to a Category 2B Hurricane on  FEWW New Hurricane Scale

With sustained winds of about 170 km/hr, Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) is now a Category 2B Hurricane on  FEWW New Hurricane Scale. Fire-Earth forecasts the cyclone to reach Category 4A strength, possibly stronger, within the next 36 hours.

Cyclone GELANE. IR satellite images (NHC Enhancement). 4km resolution. Source: UW-CIMSS.  Click images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) Details

• Date/Time: 18 February 2010 –  00:01 UTC
• Position:  Near 14.3ºS, 61.6ºE
• Sustained Movement: 150  degrees
  
• Forward speed:  11 km/hr ( 6 kt)
• The Cyclone has been tracking  SOUTH-SOUTHWEST over the past 6 hours.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds:  170km/hr (92 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 205 km/hr (~ 110 kt)
• GELANE is currently a Cat. 2B Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 8m (24 ft)
  
• Location: TC GELANE was located about 970 km (~ 525 NM) NE of Réunion island.
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

Related Links:

• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S)
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S)

Images of the Day: Cyclone GELANE

Powerful, awe-inspiring [scary] storm headed toward Mauritius and Réunion

Cyclone GELANE. Visible-IR satellite images. Source: UW-CIMSS. [From Top: 2km, 4km and 8km resolutions.] Click images to enlarge.

Cyclone GELANE. IR satellite images. Source: JTWC. Date and time: Feb 16, at 23:30UTC. Click images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) Details

• Date/Time: 17 February 2010 –  15:00 UTC
• Position:  Near 14.4ºS, 61.9ºE
• Sustained Movement: 150  degrees
  
• Forward speed:  15 km/hr ( 8 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone RENE has been tracking  SOUTHWEST over the past 6 hours.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds:  150km/hr (80 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  185 km/hr ( 100 kt)
• GELANE is currently a Cat. 1 Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 6.6m (20 ft)
  
• Location: TC GELANE was located about 1,020 km (~ 550 NM) NE of Réunion island.
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) FINAL Update (17 Feb)

TC RENE Wreaked Havoc on Tongatapu Island as Forecast

Tongan capital of  Nuku’Alofa was left battered, though it could have been much worse had RENE not weakened before the assault. There were no reported injury or fatality as of posting.

Tropical Cyclone RENE. Sat image JTWC/SATOP. Date/Time: 16 feb 2010 at 17:30UTC – Click image to enlarge.

Background:

• Cyclone RENE still strong, but won’t last long!
• Cyclone RENE Continues to Pummel Tonga Islands
• RENE Headed Toward Tonga
• RENE Heading West
• RENE Hovering Near PAGO-PAGO

• Slow Forward Motion May Help RENE to Strengthen

Tropical Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Details

• Date/Time: 17 February 2010 –  00:30 UTC
• Position:  Near 26.5ºS, 177ºE
• Sustained Movement: 225  degrees
  
• Forward speed: ~ 25 km/hr (~ 14 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone RENE has been tracking  SOUTHWEST over the past 6 hours.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: ~ 65km/hr (~ 35 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 80 km/hr (~ 45 kt)
• RENE is expected to dissipate as a TC over open water in the next 12 hours.

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 5m (15 ft)
  
• Location: TC RENE was located about 1,200 km (~ 650 NM) NNE of Auckland, New Zealand
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

Additional Satellite Imagery

NOAA East Pacific Floater 1 GOES Satellite Imagery – Cyclone FIFTEEN (TC 15P)

• Visible  Image – Java – Flash
• IR AVN  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Shortwave  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Dvorak*  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Unenhanced  Image – Java – Flash
• IR JSL  Image – Java – Flash
• IR RGB  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Funktop  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Rainbow  Image – Java – Flash
• Water Vapor  Image – Java – Flash

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

Related Links:

• TC RENE (TC 15P) Update 6 (16 Feb)
• Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 5 (15 Feb)
• Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 4 (14 Feb)
• Cyclone RENE Update 3 (13 Feb)

• Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 2 (13 Feb)
• Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 1 (12 Feb)
• Introducing Tropical Cyclone Fifteen (Cyclone RENE)
• FEWW Satellite Imagery Links Page

TC RENE (TC 15P) Update 6 (16 Feb)

Cyclone RENE still strong, but won’t last long!

Unfavorable environmental conditions, especially cooler sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content, will bring an end to RENE as a tropical cyclone over open water in the next 24 to 36 hours.

Tropical Cyclone RENE – GOES  IR Satellite image (JSL2 enhancement) – Source: NOAA. Click image to enlarge.

Background:

• Cyclone RENE Continues to Pummel Tonga Islands
• RENE Headed Toward Tonga
• RENE Heading West
• RENE Hovering Near PAGO-PAGO
• Slow Forward Motion May Help RENE to Strengthen

Tropical Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Details

• Date/Time: 16 February 2010 –  01:00 UTC
• Position:  Near 24ºS, 177ºW
• Sustained Movement: 225  degrees
  
• Forward speed: 24 km/hr (~ 13 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone RENE has been tracking  SOUTHWEST over the past 6 hours.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: ~ 120km (~ 60 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 150 km/hr (~ 110 kt)
• RENE is now a Cat. 1 Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale.
• Unfavorable environmental conditions, especially cooler sea surface temperatures and ocean heat content will bring an end to RENE as a tropical cyclone over open water in the next 24 to 36 hours.

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 8m (24 ft)
  
• Location: TC RENE was located about 780 km (~ 420 NM) Southeast of  NADI, FIJI.
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

Additional Satellite Imagery

NOAA East Pacific Floater 1 GOES Satellite Imagery – Cyclone FIFTEEN (TC 15P)

• Visible  Image – Java – Flash
• IR AVN  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Shortwave  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Dvorak*  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Unenhanced  Image – Java – Flash
• IR JSL  Image – Java – Flash
• IR RGB  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Funktop  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Rainbow  Image – Java – Flash
• Water Vapor  Image – Java – Flash

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

Related Links:

• Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 5 (15 Feb)
• Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 4 (14 Feb)
• Cyclone RENE Update 3 (13 Feb)

• Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 2 (13 Feb)
• Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 1 (12 Feb)
• Introducing Tropical Cyclone Fifteen (Cyclone RENE)
• FEWW Satellite Imagery Links Page

Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 4 (14 Feb)

RENE Headed Toward Tonga

At its current intensity and forecast track, Cyclone RENE could cause major damage to Tonga Isls.

Cyclone RENE could strike Hunga Island, the smaller islands to its SSW, and cause major damage to Tongatapu and Eua Islands.

An archipelago in the S. Pacific Ocean, Tonga is located south of Western Samoa. Its 176 islands (only 36 of them inhabited) are divided into three main groups: Vava’u, Ha’apai, and Tongatapu). The largest island, Tongatapu, covers about 258 sq. km (~ 100  sq. mi) and is home to the capital city of Nukuʻalofa.

The island of Niue must already be experiencing some of the peripheral forces of RENE, as it passes by.

Tropical Cyclone RENE – IR-WV Difference Satellite Image – Source: UW-CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

Map of Tonga Island Groups. Source: USGovt. Click image to enlarge.

Background:

• RENE Heading West
• RENE Hovering Near PAGO-PAGO
• Slow Forward Motion May Help RENE to Strengthen

Tropical Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Details

• Date/Time: 14 February 2010 –  01:00 UTC
• Position:  Near 16.5ºS, 171.0ºW
• Sustained Movement: 215  degrees
  
• Forward speed: 22 km/hr (~ 12 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone RENE has been tracking  SOUTHWEST over the past 6 hours.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: ~ 175km (~ 95 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 230 km/hr (~ 125 kt)
• RENE is now a Cat 2B Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale and could further strengthen to  Cat 3B on the scale in the next 24 hours.

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 9m (27 ft)
  
• Location: TC RENE was located about 240 km (~ 130 NM) SSW of Pago-Pago
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

Additional Satellite Imagery

NOAA East Pacific Floater 1 GOES Satellite Imagery – Cyclone FIFTEEN (TC 15P)

• Visible  Image – Java – Flash
• IR AVN  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Shortwave  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Dvorak*  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Unenhanced  Image – Java – Flash
• IR JSL  Image – Java – Flash
• IR RGB  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Funktop  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Rainbow  Image – Java – Flash
• Water Vapor  Image – Java – Flash

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

Related Links:

• Cyclone RENE Update 3 (13 Feb)
• Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 2 (13 Feb)
• Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 1 (12 Feb)
• Introducing Tropical Cyclone Fifteen (Cyclone RENE)
• FEWW Satellite Imagery Links Page

Cyclone PAT (TC 14P) Update 1 (10 Feb)

Where Shall I Go Next? Avarua is on the Way!

Cyclone PAT Tracks South on Open Waters, For Now

Tropical Cyclone PAT – IR NHC Enhanced Satellite Image. Source: CIMSS – Date/time – Feb 10, 2010 at 00:01UTC. Click image to enter CIMSS portal.

TC PAT Details

• Time/Date: 10 February 2010 –  00:01 UTC
• Position:  Near 16.9ºS, 159.1ºW
• Sustained Movement: 190  degrees
• Forward speed: 13 km/hr (~ 7 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone PAT has been tracking  southward over the past 6 hours.

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 143 km (~ 77 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 167 km/hr (~ 90 kt)
• Cyclone PAT is currently a Category 1 Hurricane
  

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 5.7m (17 ft)
• Location: PAT was located about 510 km (~ 275 NM) north of Rarotonga
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

Related Links:

• Cyclone PAT Revving Up in S Pacific

Tropical Cyclone EDZANI Strengthens

TC EDZANI (07S) UPDATE

Tropical cyclone EDZANI  intensifies

• Time/Date: 7 January 2010 – 00:01UTC
• Position: 13.8ºS, 80.3ºE
• Sustained Movement: 245 degrees
• Forward speed: 19km/hr (10 kt)

Current wind distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 75 km/hr (40 kt)
• Maximum Gusts: 95 km/hr (~ 50 kt)
• Source: JTWC and Others

Observation:

• Tropical Cyclone EDZANI (TC 07S) is currently located about 1,200 km (650 nm) ESE of Diego Garcia, tracking west-southwestward at 19 km/hr (10 knots).

• “Animated multispectral imagery and an SSMIS microwave image [taken on 06 Jan at 11:37UTC show] improved convective consolidation and an increasingly symmetric low level circulation center (LLCC).” JTWC reported.

Infrared METEOSAT-5 Indian Ocean. Credit: CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Group

• Click HERE for JAVA Animation

Related Links:

• Tropical Cyclone Seven Forms
• El Niño
• Satellite Imagery

Tropical Cyclone Seven Forms

Tropical Cyclone Seven Forms in Southern Hemisphere

Details as of a few minutes ago:

Time/Date:  06:00UCT Wednesday 6 January 2010
Position:  12.5ºS, 84.3ºE
Sustained Movement: 230 degrees
Forward speed: 09 kts
Current wind distribution:
Maximum Sustained winds: 65 km/hr (35 kt)
Maximum Gusts: 85 km/hr (~ 45 kt)
Source: JTWC and Others

Remarks:
Tropical Cyclone Seven (7S) is currently located about 1,420 km (765 nm) ESE of Diego Garcia, tracking southwestward at 17 km/hr (09 knots).

Related Links:

• El Niño
• Satellite Imagery

Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

As forecast by FEWW model, Gustav has now strengthened to an extremely dangerous category four hurricane

The National Hurricane Center in Miami confirmed a few minutes ago that Gustav now has maximum winds approaching 230 km/hr which makes him an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. The following excerpt is from their advisory update:

Hurricane Gustav Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl   Al072008
13:20 EDT Sat Aug 30 2008

… Gustav has continued to strengthen and now has maximum winds near 230 km/hr (145 mph) with higher gusts.  This makes Gustav an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.  A special advisory will be issued at about 14:00 EDT to modify the initial and forecast intensities. The special public advisory will take the place of the intermediate public advisory previously scheduled for that time. —Forecaster Knabb

Hurricane Gustav – GOES Imagery – Floater (updated image) – IR Aviation color enhancement – Credit: NOAA Satellite Information Service/SSD

Hurricane Gustav – GOES Imagery – (still image saved for comparison Aug 30, 2008 22:15 UTC) – IR Aviation color enhancement – Credit: NOAA Satellite Information Service/SSD

Gustav’s current characteristics including his rapid ability to strengthen, his temperament and projected path, suggest that he could cause substantial damage to structures, especially to the 3,900 or so offshore oil and gas facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.

Gustav could bring up to 10 meter storm surge along the northern Gulf Coast. According to the Census Bureau estimate, as many as 12 million U.S. residents may experience Gustav’s impact.

The storm has already left a trail of destruction and some 90 people dead in its wake as it swept across the Caribbeans over the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Jamaica. The storm’s human cost in Cayman Islands and Cuba may exceed the standing death toll.

What about Hannah?

TS Hannah (C) Chasing Hurricane Gustv (L) – GOES Caribbean Imagery – (Still Image) – August 30, 2008 – Credit: NOAA Satellite Information Service/SSD

According to NHC TS Hannah advisory No. 11, at 21:00UTC the center of tropical storm Hanna was located near latitude 22.4 north, longitude 67.2 west or about 415 km east-northeast of Grand Turk Island. The center of Hanna is forecast to move near or just northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands late Sunday or Monday.

Hannah has maximum sustained winds of near 85 km/hr, with higher gusts.  Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hrs. Minimum central pressure:1000mb.

Hannah seems to have the potential to “pack a big punch!”

Fay: TS with an Attitude

Will she go north? Will she go west? Will she settle for west-northwest?

Fay is drifting toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/hr). Fay is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward with some increase in forward speed during the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/hr) with higher gusts are expected.

Fay is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches (25.4cm), across

• Central to northern portion of the Florida peninsula
• Florida Panhandle
• Southern Georgia
• Southeastern Alabama

Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible!

Tropical Storm FAY QuickLook – Posted: 18:00 EDT 08/21/2008

Tropical Storm FAY beginning to make landfall on Florida’s East Coast near Flagler Beach. As of 08/21/2008 18:00 EDT, water levels from northeastern Florida to South Carolina are elevated about 1.25 to 2.40 feet above predicted. (NOAA-NOS)

• Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are possible across the coastal areas of southern South Carolina.
• Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible over southwest and southern Florida.
• Isolated storm total accumulations of 20 to 30 inches have been observed with this system over the east central coastal areas of Florida.
• Storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tides is possible along the east coast of Florida and Georgia
• Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight over portions of northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia. (Forecaster: Brown/Knabb. NOAA-NHC)

Melbourne Florida: Roads Double as Rivers

Photograph: John Raoux/AP. Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notice!

See previous entries for more updated images:

• Fay drops 25 inches of rain on Melbourne

• Fay Heads North Toward SW Florida Coast
• Fay May Strengthen to Hurricane Force
• Tropical Storm Fay Forms
• Weather

Other related Links:

• World Now (Satellite Imagery Index Page)
• Tropical Storm FAY Public Advisory (NOAA – NHC)

Fay May Strengthen to Hurricane Force

LATEST UPDATE: Fay Heads North Toward SW Florida Coast

Tropical Storm Fay Intermediate Advisory No. 9a
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami Fl AL062008
800 pm EDT Sun Aug 17, 2008

Highlights:

• Fay is moving slower. She has not strengthened yet.
• A hurricane watch is in effect for the Florida Keys from south of Ocean Reef to Key West including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay and along the Florida mainland from Card Sound Bridge westward to Tarpon Springs.
• A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.
• A hurricane watch remains in effect for Cuba from the provinces of La Habana and Ciudad de la Habana eastward to Sancti Spiritus.
• A tropical storm warning is in effect for the provinces of Cuba from Camaguey westward.

• A TS warning remains in effect for Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.
• A TS warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys From Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas including Florida Bay.
• A TS warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

TS Fay Moving Over Cuba

Western Atlantic Infrared Image – Realtime Satellite Images From GOES – NOAA

• A TS watch remains in effect for the southeast coast of Florida from Ocean Reef northward to Jupiter inlet and for lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 36 hours.

• A TS watch remains in effect for Grand Cayman Island.
• Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula the northwestern Bahamas and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Fay.
• For storm information specific to your area including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
• At 8:00 pm EDT 00:00 UTC the center of TS Fay was located near latitude 21.0 North, Longitude 80.3 west or about 200 miles (330 km) southeast of Havana Cuba and about 265 miles (430km) south-southeast of Key West, Florida.
• Fay has been moving slowly and somewhat erratically toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/hr). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight with a turn toward the north expected Monday or Monday night. On the forecast track, Fay is expected cross Western Cuba overnight tonight or Monday morning and move near the Florida Keys Monday or Monday night.

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities.

• Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/hr) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Fay could be approaching hurricane strength when it reaches western Cuba tonight or early Monday and when it approaches the Florida Keys Monday.
• Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.
• The minimum central pressure estimated is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
• Storm tides of 2 to 4 feet above normal are possible along the south coast of Cuba in the tropical storm warning area in areas of onshore winds. Tides of 2 to 4 ft above normal are possible in the Florida Keys in the warning area.
• Isolated tornadoes are possible late tonight and Monday over the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula.
• Fay is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over much of Cuba with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are possible over Grand Cayman and over the central Bahamas. Heavy rain may
• Begin to affect the Florida Keys and south Florida tonight and into Monday. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible for the Florida Keys and south Florida.
• Repeating the 8:00 pm EDT position: 21.0 N, 80.3 W.
• Movement toward west-northwest near 10 mph.
• Maximum sustained winds 50 mph. Minimum central pressure 1001 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11:00 pm EDT. — Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

Related Links:

• Weather
• World Now (Weather and Image Links)

TS EDOUARD UPDATE

Latest UPDATE EDOUARD MAKES LANDFALL IN TEXAS

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008

DATA THUS FAR FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD OF EDOUARD IS EXPANDING – WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW IN THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS.

As of 08/04/2008 17:00 CDT, water levels along the Gulf coast from Alabama to Louisiana are elevated between 0.35 ft to 1.25 ft above predicted. Wind gusts up to 35 knots in Louisiana. Water levels along the Texas coast are beginning to rise above predictions. NOAA

THE SYSTEM’S MAXIMUM WINDS HAVEN’T CHANGED MUCH. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB AND THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT.

STRUCTURALLY, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER BANDING AND A FEW SMALL AREAS OF NEW CONVECTION GOING OFF CLOSE TO THE CENTER.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EXPANSION OF THE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.

THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL TAKING EDOUARD TO 69 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH THE SHIPS, LGEM AND SUPERENSEMBLE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

THRESHOLD. [IT’S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A LOW-END HURRICANE.]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6. EDOUARD’S HEADING IS WOBBLING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST. AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS EDOUARD MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW IS SHOWING A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE. AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NEAR AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND HAVE JUST A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN BEFORE. AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

— FORECASTER FRANKLIN