STORM UPDATE: Ida Coming Back?

What are the chances of Ida coming back?

At 06:00 UTC (12:00 AM CST) TS Ida was located about 150 km (95 miles) south-southwest of  Mobile Alabama.

Dangerous storm tide created by Ida will raise water levels by up to 1.5 meter ( 5 feet) above ground along the coast near and to the East of where storm center makes landfall, as well as in areas of onshore flow in southeastern Louisiana, NOAA NHC said. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves near the coast.

Summary of TS Ida Status:

As of 06:00 UTC Tue Nov 10  (12:00 AM CST)
Location: 29.5°N 88.8°W
Max sustained winds :  96 km/h (60 mph)
Moving: N  (360 degrees) at  16 km/h (10 mph)
Min pressure: 29.47 inches (998 mb)

What are the chances of Ida Coming Back?

What’s the probability of Ida doing a U-Turn, restrengthening into a hurricane-force storm  for a third time, and slamming into the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, again?

FEWW Moderators believe there’s a 1 in 5 chance [P=0.2] that remnants of Idea could be pinwheeled back into the Gulf of Mexico by a slowly developing system to the east, moving NNW and striking the coast of Louisiana, and further to the west, with renewed intensity.

Layer Wind Mean Analysis. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.

Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Image and Animation

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GOES AVNCOLOR Enhancement – Still image Dated as inset. Click image to enlarge and update.

Storm Ida – Earth Observatory

Ida captured by Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite on November 9 at 6:17 a.m. U.S. Central Time. Though Ida was still a hurricane, it was quickly weakening. While spots of heavy rain remain, the storm’s circular organization is no longer apparent. NASA image courtesy Hal Pierce, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Holli Riebeek, NASA’s Earth Observatory. Edited by FEWW.

Cumulative Wind History

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Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

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Related Links:

• Ida Became a Hurricane, Again!
• Could Ida Become a Hurricane?
• Hurricanes 2009

Ida Became a Hurricane, Again!

November 10, 2009

LATE UPDATE: Ida Coming Back?

UPDATE: Hurricane IDA

Hurricane Ida Status at 600 AM CST 12:00 UTC
Location: 25.8N, 88.2W
Maximum sustained: 130 km/h(80 mph)
Current direction: NNW (335 degrees) at 26 km/h (16 mph)
Minimum Central pressure:  993 MB  (29.32 inches)

NOAA Said:

Rains will be increasing well in advance of Ida across the central and eastern gulf coast, but will become steadier and heavier later today into Tuesday.  Total storm accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum storm totals of 8 inches, are possible through Tuesday from the central and eastern gulf coast northward into the eastern portions of the Tennessee valley and the southern Appalachians.

A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the coast near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

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IDA Reaches Hurricane Intensity

In

Could Ida Become a Hurricane?

FEWW Moderators forecast that  Ida had a more than 1 in 4 chance  [P≥0.25] of redeveloping into a hurricane-force storm.

At 05:15 UTC Sun Nov 8, 2009  [11:15 PM CST Sat Nov 7] NOAA reported that data from its buoy 42056, located in the NW Caribbean Sea, approximately 195 km (120 miles)  ESE of Cozumel, Mexico, had reported  a 1-minute sustained wind of about 120km/h (75 mph), which indicated Ida has once a again become a hurricane.

FEWW Moderators further believe that Hurricane Ida, could strengthen to a Category 3A hurricane on the FEWW Hurricane Scale [Cat 3 on Saffir-Simpson scale] within the next 24-48 hours.

Hurricane Ida Status at 07:15 UTC (1:15 AM CST)

Location:  20.2N, 85.4W
Maximum Sustained Winds: 150 km/h (90 mph) – with higher gusts
Present Movement: Northwest (325 degrees) at about 17 km/h (10 mph)
Minimum central pressure: 983 MB

With 30-km hurricane force winds radii, and tropical storm force winds extending 220 km from the center, hurricane IDA is currently a compact hurricane.

Hurricane IDA. NOAA GOES 12 – Still Image dated Nov 08, 2009 – NASA GSFC GOES Project. Click image to enlarge and update.

GOES Full Disk. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.

Hurricane Ida. GOES-East – Still Sat Image. AVNColor enhancement. Click image to enlarge and update.

Layer Wind Mean Analysis. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.

GOES-East/Meteosat-9/MTSAT/ IR Mosaic Color Background  – Atlantic Region. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.

Hurricane Ida. Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

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Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

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NOAA Storm Advisory

• AT 115 AM CST (0715 UTC) THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PLAYA DEL CARMEN TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
• A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO PLAYA DEL CARMEN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
• A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.
• A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
• A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO.
• A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

More Images from GOES Floater Imagery
IDA (AL11)

• Visible  Image – Java – Flash
• IR AVN  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Shortwave  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Dvorak*  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Unenhanced  Image – Java – Flash
• IR JSL  Image – Java – Flash
• IR RGB  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Funktop  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Rainbow  Image – Java – Flash
• Water Vapor  Image – Java – Flash

Other Images

• FEWW Satellite Imagery Index

Recommended Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

• Storm-Centered – Water Vapor
• Storm-Centered – Visible
• Storm-Centered – Water Visible (Colorized)
• Storm-Centered – Infrared
• Storm-Centered – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• West Atlantic – Water Vapor
• West Atlantic – Visible
• West Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• West Atlantic – Infrared
• West Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Northwest Atlantic – Water Vaopr
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)

• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible (Colorized)
• Gulf of Mexico – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible (Colorized)

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

• Storm-Centered – Water Vapor
• Storm-Centered – Visible
• Storm-Centered – Visible (Colorized)
• Storm-Centered – Infrared
• Storm-Centered – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement) – JXTpSCT

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• West Atlantic – Water Vapor
• West Atlantic – Visible
• West Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• West Atlantic – Infrared
• West Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Northwest Atlantic – Water Vapor
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Atlantic – Infrared
• Northwest Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement) – NCrASAT

Could Ida Become a Hurricane?

Ida, Now a Tropical Depression, Could Become a Tropical Storm Soon.

But will it strengthen further to a hurricane-force storm as it enters the warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico?

FEWW Moderators believe, as of posting, that Ida has a more than 1 in 4 chance  [P≥0.25] of redeveloping into a hurricane-force storm after entering the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Depression IDA

GOES Sat Image- Still frame. Click image to enlarge and update.

10:00 PM EST Fri Nov 6 [03:00 UTC Sat Nov 7, 2009]
Location: 16.2°N 84.0°W
Max sustained:  56 km/h (35 mph)
Moving: N (360 degrees) at 11 km/h (7 mph)
Min pressure: 1006 mb

IDA is expected to reach the Yucatan Channel late Sunday EST.

POES Composite – Daily Sea Surface Temps.

Click image to enlarge and update.

Cumulative Wind History

Click image to enlarge and update.

This graphic shows how the size of the storm has changed, and the areas potentially affected so far by sustained winds of tropical storm force (in orange) and hurricane force (in red). The display is based on the wind radii contained in the set of Forecast/Advisories indicated at the top of the figure. Users are reminded that the Forecast/Advisory wind radii represent the maximum possible extent of a given wind speed within particular quadrants around the tropical cyclone. As a result, not all locations falling within the orange or red swaths will have experienced sustained tropical storm or hurricane force winds, respectively. Source: NHC/NOAA

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to enlarge and update.

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. Source: NHC/NOAA

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

Click image to enlarge and update.

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt…39 mph (tropical storm force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. Source: NHC/NOAA

More Images from GOES Floater Imagery
IDA (AL11)

• Visible  Image – Java – Flash
• IR AVN  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Shortwave  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Dvorak*  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Unenhanced  Image – Java – Flash
• IR JSL  Image – Java – Flash
• IR RGB  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Funktop  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Rainbow  Image – Java – Flash
• Water Vapor  Image – Java – Flash

Other Images

• FEWW Satellite Imagery Index

Recommended Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

• Storm-Centered – Water Vapor
• Storm-Centered – Visible
• Storm-Centered – Water Visible (Colorized)
• Storm-Centered – Infrared
• Storm-Centered – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• West Atlantic – Water Vapor
• West Atlantic – Visible
• West Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• West Atlantic – Infrared
• West Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Northwest Atlantic – Water Vaopr
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)

• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean – Visible (Colorized)
• Gulf of Mexico – Infrared
• Gulf of Mexico – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Gulf of Mexico – Water Vapor
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible
• Gulf of Mexico – Visible (Colorized)

Loops/ Satellite Animations (GOES 12; NOAA/SSD)

• Storm-Centered – Water Vapor
• Storm-Centered – Visible
• Storm-Centered – Visible (Colorized)
• Storm-Centered – Infrared
• Storm-Centered – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement) – JXTpSCT

• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Water Vapor
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Visible
• Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Sector – Infrared

• West Atlantic – Water Vapor
• West Atlantic – Visible
• West Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• West Atlantic – Infrared
• West Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• Northwest Atlantic – Water Vapor
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible
• Northwest Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Atlantic – Infrared
• Northwest Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement) – NCrASAT