Posted by feww on July 4, 2014
Collapse of Planetary Life Support Systems Accelerates
HIoN skyrockets to yet another new high
The FIRE-EARTH/CASF Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN), an index for calculating the human impact on the planetary life support systems, climbed to a critically high level of 382 this month. In other words, the anthropogenic impact on the living environment exceeded 3.82 times the planet’s diminishing carrying capacity.
- The index is rising exponentially.
- HIoN reached 323 in July 2013 .
- HIoN has risen 97 points, or more than 34 percent, since July 2012 when it reached 285.
- The index was less than 80 in 1960, and rose to about 100 in 1980.
“According to HIoN projections, our cities and population centers could become almost entirely unsustainable by as early as 2015.”
Diagram shows the exponential growth of Human Impact on Nature (HION) between 1960 and July 2013. Source: FIRE-EARTH Real-Time Earth Models. Copyright: FIRE-EARTH Blog Authors.
RAPID CHANGE IN PROGRESS!
Tidal Surge of Global Change 28 Times Faster in 21st Century: FIRE-EARTH
FIRE-EARTH Models show the rate of global change has intensified by a factor of at least 28 in the last decade compared with the 1960s.
FIRE-EARTH defines ‘global change’ as the deterioration in the planet’s life-support capacity, caused by large-scale anthropogenic impact, which is leading to a total collapse.
HIoN since End June 2012
.
July 4, 2014 – SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN –
614 Days Left
Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.
Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background
Posted in environment, Global Disaster watch | Tagged: anthropogenic impact, carrying capacity, collapse, HION, human impact, index of Human Impact on Nature, Mass die-offs, Planetary Life Support Systems | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on July 23, 2013
Just when you thought it couldn’t possibly get much …
FIRE-EARTH Models show unprecedented surges in atmospheric CO2 concentrations starting 2014. The massive increases could be as much as 10 – 15 times any rises ever recorded.
To minimize abuse of this forecast by the usual culprits and dozens of newcomers, FIRE-EARTH won’t release further details at this time.
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites. The Global Monitoring Division of NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory has measured carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases for several decades at a globally distributed network of air sampling sites [Conway, 1994]. A global average is constructed by first fitting a smoothed curve as a function of time to each site, and then the smoothed value for each site is plotted as a function of latitude for 48 equal time steps per year. A global average is calculated from the latitude plot at each time step [Masarie, 1995]. Go here for more details on how global means are calculated. Click for a comparison with recent trends in carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, which has the longest continuous record of direct atmospheric CO2 measurements. Image and caption: ESRL/NOAA
Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN)
Diagram shows the exponential growth of Human Impact on Nature (HION) between 1960 and July 2013. Source: FIRE-EARTH Real-Time Earth Models. Copyright: FIRE-EARTH Blog Authors.
Related Links
Posted in carbon emissions, carbon footprint, CO2, CO2 Emissions, CO2e | Tagged: Atmospheric carbon dioxide, atmospheric CO2, catastrophic CO2 rises, FIRE-EARTH CO2 Forecast, FIRE-EARTH FORECAST, HION, index of Human Impact on Nature, long-lived greenhouse gases, Significant Event Imagery, Trends in Atmospheric CO2 | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on July 7, 2012
DISASTER CALENDAR SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,348 Days Left
[July 7, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016. SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,348 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History…
As of end-June 2012, the CASF Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN), an index for calculating the human impact on the planetary life support systems, stood at an astoundingly high level of 285. In other words, the anthropogenic impact on the living environment has now exceeded 2.85 times the planet’s diminishing carrying capacity.
“According to HIoN projections, our cities and population centers could become almost entirely unsustainable by as early as 2015.”
Related Links
Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background
Posted in climate extremes, global deluge, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global drought, Global Food Crisis, global ghg emissions, global health catastrophe | Tagged: 2012 disaster calendar, carrying capacity, collapse, disaster calendar, energy dinosaurs, global collapse, Global Disaster Forecast, global disasters 2012, global ghg emissions, global heating, Global Temperature Anomalies, HION, human-enhanced natural disasters, index of Human Impact on Nature, Mass die-offs, Mega Disasters | 1 Comment »
Posted by feww on June 18, 2008
Submitted by Dione, CASF Member
What would the future be like for my daughter?
Don’t know much about history
Don’t know much biology
Don’t know much about science books
Don’t know much about the French I took
But I do know that I love her
…
What a wonderful world this would be
Don’t know much about geography
Don’t know much trigonometry
Don’t know much about algebra
Don’t know what a slide rule is for
But I know that one and one is two
What a wonderful world this would be
[From a Herman’s Hermits song, Wonderful World, lyrics by Cooke/Alpert/Adler. Lyrics may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notice!]
Creating A Sustainable Future (CASF) received an emotional email from a young mother, “Kay,” who wishes to remain anonymous. Kay has a 6-year-old daughter and lives with her family in NW United States. Kay says she is not high on science, “in all probability the Herman’s Hermits famous song, ‘don’t know much about history, biology, science books, geography, trigonometry, algebra, and slide rule’ was written about me!”
She says her knowledge of climatology is even poorer than her French(!) “But I do know that I love my daughter and husband and ‘what a wonderful world this would be’ if we could rein in the greenhouse gases, and reverse the global warming.”
“I have read a number of articles about CO2 pollution in the atmosphere including a few written by the famed NASA scientist, Dr J. Hansen … but he is a government scientist …”
She wants to know the safe level of CO2 in the atmosphere and asks which of the 350, 450, or higher levels of CO2 pollution would be a “safe” level, and whether our reply could be put simply so that a “layperson” could understand the answer.
Hi, Kay – thanks for visiting our blog and email!
The CASF members believe even the lower atmospheric CO2 levels of 350ppm CO2 are unsafe! Here are the reasons why. Our findings put as simply as we could:
- Our climate models show that when the atmospheric CO2 levels leaped over the 330ppmv “threshold” in the mid 1970s it triggered a positive feedback loop, which is now impacting the climate. [The atmospheric CO2 inventory has risen by about 17 percent since then.]
- The “acid test,” if you’ll excuse the pun, of the accuracy of our models lies in the future, namely how much worse the environmental impacts will be in the 2008-2010 period. If the impacts of CO2 pollution worsened significantly, by a factor of 20% or more, by 2010 (we have a system for quantifying the adverse effects, see Index of Human Impact on Nature for an introduction), as we expect them to do so, then we know our models are accurate.
- The catch? By 2010 it would be too late to do anything to slow down the runaway positive feedback system [other than say a prayer for the dead!]
- While the preindustrial levels of 260-270ppm were [and they probably still would be ] “safe,” the longer term environmental impacts of CO2 at levels of about 290-300ppm, even if those levels were achievable [assume some miraculous means were introduced to wipe the slate clean,] in the current climatic state are uncertain!
- Based on the above, we recommend an immediate shift to zero-emissions, the benefits of which, although by no means immediate, would far outweigh the ultimate cost of playing Russian roulette with climate change.
We hope the above helps. Feel free to visit us anytime!
Best wishes
Dione, FEWW Moderators and rest of CASF Team
Related Links:
dione
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