Global Disasters/ Significant Events – 24 June 2013

Himalayan Tsunami Death Toll May Top 5,000

“At least 5,000 people must have been killed in the deluge that inflicted heavy damage on vast tracts of land especially in Kedarnath valley,” Disaster Management Minister Yashpal Arya told reporters on his return from an aerial survey of the disaster areas.

The official death toll had climbed to 680 as of June 22, and the Chief Minister of Uttarakhand has said that the death toll would likely be around 1,000, said a report.

Official forecasters have issued various warnings concerning adverse weather in the disaster area starting today, June 24, including heavy rain to last until June 30.

At least 19,000 are still stranded in three areas, while 83,000 others have been rescued, according to reports.

At least two major landslides and numerous mudslides have been reported in the disaster zone.

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1,000 residents flee, as State of Emergency declared in Siksika Nations

Raging waters from the Bow River have devastated the Siksika Nation, forcing a least 1,000 people from homes.

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State of Emergency declared in Houston County, Minnesota

Authorities have declared a  state of emergency in Houston County, Minnesota, due to losses and damage caused by a storm.

Large swathes of southeastern Minnesota have been hit hard from flash flooding over the weekend, but storm damage  across Houston county is said to be extensive,  a state of emergency declaration.

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Deluge forces Manitoba community to declare state of emergency

“Environment Canada said radar indicated accumulations of 100 mm hovering above that area when the system hit,” said a report.

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Winnipegosis declares a state of emergency due to flooding

The Village of Winnipegosis has declared a state of emergency, making it the third rain-soaked part of Manitoba to be dealing with overland flooding.

“A lot of the land here looked like [a] lake. The water, the ditches began to overflow, and consequently the water was rising up around homes,” said a local resident.

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States of Emergency in Crawford and Grant Counties, Wisconsin

Crawford and Grant counties in the southwestern corner of Wisconsin have declared states of emergency due to water damage.

“Crawford County had flooding and multiple mudslides that closed several roads and forced evacuation of a number of homes. In Grant County, roadways were flooded along with an unspecified number of homes.”

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Saskatchewan, Canada: Cumberland House declares state of emergency

Cumberland House declared a state of emergency, as authorizes started  evacuations of  the Village of Cumberland House and the Cumberland House Cree Nation, a total of more than 2,200, as rising floodwater in Alberta threatened to move into the prairie province, said a report.

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Town of Devon remains under a state of emergency,  2,200 people evacuated

The Devon Lions Campground and Voyageur Park have been evacuated. More than 2,000 people were forced to leave the campground.

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El Niño Update [8 Sept 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 8 Sept 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 1.0ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.7ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks

During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average near the Date Line and in the eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (°C)

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

ONI (°C): Evolution since 1950

The most recent ONI value (June – August 2009) is +0.7°C.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

For additional information see following links.

Relate Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates

• El Niño Update [31 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update – 10 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 3 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 27 July 2009

• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now
• 2009 Hurricane Season

ENSO, wind anomaly El Niño, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST

El Niño Update [24 Aug 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 24 August 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.8ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks:
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average near the Date Line and in the eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

Weekly SST Departures for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have been positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During the last month, there has been little change in SST anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific

• During late-June through mid-August 2009, positive sub-surface temperature anomalies weakened in the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean.
• The most recent period shows positive anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, with the largest anomalies near 125m depth in the west-central Pacific.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

• Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
• The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority of the models indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 Aug 2009).

Summary:

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

See  El Niño Home Page for previous entries and related links.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates

• El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]

• El Niño Update – 10 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 3 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 27 July 2009
• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now
• 2009 Hurricane Season

El Niño Update – 27 July 2009

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 27 July 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.6ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 1.0ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.6ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

Summary

• El Niño conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño conditions will continue to intensify and are expected to last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific

During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least +0.5°C above-average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and at least +1.0°C above average in the east-central and eastern Pacific. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Global SST Departures

During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies

The upper ocean heat content was below-average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean between mid-August 2008 and March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008. The heat content anomalies have remained positive since April 2009. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]  Full Report

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now

• El Niño [Main Page]

Notes:
1. NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña

• El Niño:characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5°C.
• La Niña:characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5°C.
• By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode,these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
• CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 SST departures meet or exceed +/-0.5°C along with consistent atmospheric features. These anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months.

2. Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)

• The ONI is based on SST departures from average in the Niño 3.4 region, and is a principal measure for monitoring, assessing, and predicting ENSO.
• Defined as the three-month running-mean SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region. Departures are based on a set of improved homogeneous historical SST analysis (Extended Reconstructed SST –ERSST.v3b). The SST reconstruction methodology is described in Smith et al., 2008, J. Climate, vol. 21, 2283-2296.)
• Used to place current events into a historical perspective.
• NOAA’s operational definitions of El Niño and La Niña are keyed to the ONI index.

3. The most recent ONI value (April –June 2009) is +0.2oºC.

El Niño Conditions Set in Across Pacific Ocean [From NASA’s Earth Observatory]

El Niño conditions are evident in this sea surface temperature anomaly image based on data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) on NASA’s Aqua satellite on July 26. The current data are compared to 12-year average temperatures (1985-1997) measured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers that have flown on several NOAA missions.

Cream-colored places represent near normal temperatures; red is warmer than normal temps; while, blue shows cooler than normal areas. The dark red area on the eastern Pacific off the coast of Peru and Ecuador (north of Peru) indicates much warmer than average temps. Across the Pacific, ocean temperatures around Indonesia were slightly cooler (light blue) than usual.

Earth’s largest ocean, the Pacific is the single biggest influence on the average temperature, rainfall, and vegetation conditions in the tropics. The Pacific’s primary climate pattern, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO),  includes an ocean component (the El Niño/La Niña pattern) and an atmospheric component, the Southern Oscillation.

Every 3-8 years, the prevailing easterly winds over the eastern equatorial Pacific weaken or reverse, surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific climb, and rainfall declines over most tropical land areas. In 1997-98, an El Niño event contributed to devastating fires in Indonesia’s tropical forests, releasing large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which completely destroyed the Mentawai coral reefs west of Sumatra.

El Niño ocean conditions does not guarantee full ENSO event. So far the atmospheric component of the pattern, the Southern Oscillation, isn’t fully cooperating. As of July 26, the trade winds in the western Pacific (near Indonesia) had shifted direction and were blowing weakly toward the east (see NOAA wind anomaly graphic), but across the central and eastern Pacific, easterly trade winds were still of average or slightly above-average strength. For an ENSO event to fully develop, the easterly trades will have to weaken across a much wider area of the Pacific than now.

NASA image by Jesse Allen, using AMSR-E data processed and provided by Chelle Gentemann and Frank Wentz, Remote Sensing Systems. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey.  [Edited by FEWW.]