Tropical Cyclone STAN: Red Alert Issued in WA

Destructive winds, storm surges, flooding threaten towns as cyclone approaches Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone STAN threatens northwest Pilbara region in Western Australia (WA) with potentially destructive wind gusts and heavy rain when the system makes landfall early on Sunday morning.

• The storm, currently a category 2 system, is forecast to intensify to category three cyclone before landfall.

• Red alert has been issued for coastal communities between Port Hedland and Wallal, including Pardoo, Eighty Mile and Wallal.

•  Storm surges may pose additional threats of damaging waves and dangerous flooding due to the tide, said Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).

• For the latest updates visit the BOM website

 

M6.5 Quake Strikes Andaman Sea near Nicobar Islands

SEISMIC HAZARD
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Strong Quake, Significant Aftershocks Occur E of Mohean, Nicobar Islands

Centered at 7.769°N, 94.325°, the quake struck at a depth of about 10km on Friday 21, 2014 at 13:41:07 UTC, according to the USGS/EHP.

At least 8 significant aftershocks followed, as of posting.

Explanation Map for Seismotectonics of the Sumatra Region (Partial). Source: USGS

Earthquake Details  – [USGS/EHP]

Magnitude: 6.5Mw
Event Time: 2014-03-21 13:41:07 UTC
Location: 7.769°N 94.325°E depth=10.0km (6.2mi)
Nearby Cities:

• 113km (70mi) E of Mohean, India
• 234km (145mi) NNW of Sabang, Indonesia

Super BRUCE Winds Reach 265km/h

EXTREME CLIMATIC EVENT

Super Cyclonic Storm BRUCE intensified to 265km/h winds

Super Cyclonic Storm BRUCE maximum sustained winds reached a top speed of 265km/h with gusts of about 315km/h earlier today, according to FIRE-EARTH models.

At 13:00UTC, Super BRUCE was positioned near 19.0ºS 78.0ºE, tracking WSW at about 20km/hr and generating maximum significant wave height of about 15 meters.

Super Cyclonic Storm BRUCE. Water Vapor  [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] Satellite image – recorded at 12:30UTC on December 22, 2013. The mass in the bottom left is Cyclone AMARA. The original Image Sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

[Credits and acknowledgments: FIRE-EARTH Models input data from various satellites and sources including ESA, NOAA, JTWC …]

Related Links

• BRUCE Becomes a Super Cyclonic Storm December 21, 2013
• BRUCE could Intensify to a Super Cyclonic Storm December 20, 2013
• Tropical Cyclones AMARA and BRUCE December 19, 2013

BRUCE Becomes a Super Cyclonic Storm

EXTREME CLIMATIC EVENT

BRUCE is now a Super Cyclonic Storm with 0.8 certainty

FIRE-EARTH Models show BRUCE has strengthened to a Super Cyclonic Storm with 80 percent certainty, packing winds of over 255 km/h at about 04:00UTC on December 21, 2013.

FIRE-EARTH Estimates

Position: Near 15.0ºS, 84.3ºE
Maximum Sustained Winds:  255+ km/h
Maximum Wind Gust: 320 km/h
Significant Wave Height:  15m
Movement: WSW (250 degrees) at 25km/h

[Note: FIRE-EARTH Models input data from various sources including ESA, NOAA, JTWC and others.]

Super Cyclonic Storm BRUCE. VIS/SWIR [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] Satellite image – recorded at 04:30UTC on December 21, 2013. Original Image Sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

Point of No Return

In 2004¹,  our team forecast an 80-90 percent increase in the total power dissipated annually by tropical cyclones  in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans by 2015.

Storms will continue to get stronger (develop greater average intensities) and survive at high intensity for longer (take more time to dissipate peak energy) resulting in substantial increases in storm-related losses in the near future.

[1. First draft posted by MSRB on Internet on February 26, 2005]

Related Links

• BRUCE could Intensify to a Super Cyclonic Storm December 20, 2013
• Tropical Cyclones AMARA and BRUCE December 19, 2013

BRUCE could Intensify to a Super Cyclonic Storm

Cyclone BRUCE could strengthen to a Super Cyclonic Storm – probability: 0.23

FIRE-EARTH models show Cyclone BRUCE could potentially intensify to a Super Cyclonic Storm packing sustained winds of about 255 km/h with probability of 23 percent.

Approximate location of Cyclone BRUCE as of 07:00UTC on December 20, 2013 marked on CIMMS SST map.

FIRE-EARTH Estimates – at 11:00UTC on December 20, 2013

• Cyclone AMARA (TC 03S) was located near 18.5ºS, 64.9ºE packing winds of about 215Km/hr.
• Cyclone BRUCE (TC 04S) was located near 13.8ºS, 87.7ºE with sustained winds of about 230Km/hr.

Cyclones AMARA (TC 03S) and BRUCE (TC 04S). IS/SWIR [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] Satellite image – recorded at 09:30UTC on December 20, 2013. Original Image Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

Related Links

• Tropical Cyclones AMARA and BRUCE December 19, 2013

Tropical Cyclones AMARA and BRUCE

Two Tropical Cyclones Loitering in the Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone AMARA (TC 03S)

Time: 09:00UTC on December 19, 2013
Position: Near 17.4ºS, 67.9ºE
Movement Past Six Hours:  WSW (255 degrees) at 17km/h
Max Sustained Winds: 195 km/h
Gusts: 240+ km/h
Location: Approximately 1,370km NE of La Reunion
Significant Wave Height: 10m
Source: JTWC

Cyclones AMARA (TC 03S) and BRUCE (TC 04S) – WV Satellite Image (FIRE-EARTH Enhancement) – timed at 13:30UTC on December 19, 2013. Initial image sourced from CIMSS.

Tropical Cyclone BRUCE  (TC 04S)

Time:09:00UTC on December 19, 2013
Position: Near 12.3ºS, 91.6ºE.
Movement Past Six Hours: WSW (250 degrees) at 15km/h
Max Sustained Winds: 140 km/h
Gusts: 170 km/h
Location: Approximately 520km west Of Cocos Island
Significant Wave Height: 7m
Source: JTWC

Storm Death Toll Climbs to 140 in Puntland, Somalia

Puntland death toll could top 300

Final death toll from tropical cyclone 03A that hit Puntln, Somalia’s semi-autonomous region at the weekend could top 300, said the government.

Tropical cyclone 03A hit the Somali coast on November 10, 2013, prompting the Puntland government to declare a state of disaster on 11 November, citing very heavy rainfall and flash floods that have so far killed 140 people and at least 100,000 livestock. The government has “appealed for international aid to help the tiny Horn of Africa region, which is rich in energy resources and is being sized up by oil explorers,” said a report.

“So far we have confirmed the storm killed 140 people and left hundreds more missing. We are afraid the death toll may reach 300 because many people are still missing. Roads have been cut and the only access to those areas is by air,” Puntland’s interior minister told Reuters.

The government has asked the international community for supplies of clean water, non-perishable foods, medicines, shelter materials and blankets.

The cyclone brought torrential rains to the region causing flash floods that swept more than 100,000 livestock and scores of fishing boats into the Indian Ocean.

• About 65 percent of Somalia’s population depends on livestock, said the FAO.

• Famine has added to Somalia’s woes in the last three years.

“Knowing that livestock and fisheries are key livelihood activities in the affected regions, we anticipate the storm to heavily hurt coastal communities,” said the acting head of FAO in Somalia.

Related Links

• Hundreds Dead or Missing after Storm Hits Somalia November 12, 2013

Sky Photos IV

Cloud Formations Over South Pacific, Indian and Southern Oceans

Cloud formations over South Pacific, Indian and Southern Oceans, August 30, 2013 at 12:00UTC. Source: MTSAT-2/Digital Typhoon.

Previous Sky Photos

• Sky Photos November 27, 2010
• Sky Photos II  December 23, 2010
• Sky Photo – 21 Feb 2012 February 21, 2012
• Sky Photos: Land-Mapping Clouds July 21, 2012

Storm GELANE – FINAL UPDATE (Feb 22)

Tropical Depression GELANE Fading on the Way to Port Louis, Mauritius

Tropical Storm GELANE IR Satellite Image (BD Enhancement). Source: UW-CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) Details

• Date/Time: 22 February 2010 –  01:00 UTC
• Position:  Near 20.0ºS, 59.5ºE
• Sustained Movement: 305  degrees
  
• Forward speed:  15 km/hr ( 8 kt)
• The system has been tracking  NORTHWESTWARD.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 55 km/hr (~ 30 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 75 km/hr (~ 40kt)
• GELANE is currently a Tropical Depression on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 4.3m (13 ft)
  
• Location: TC GELANE was located about 205 km North-Northeast (85 degrees) of  Port Louis, Mauritius.
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

Related Links:

• Tropical Storm GELANE – UPDATE 4 (Feb 21)
• Cyclone GELANE – UPDATE 3 (Feb 20)
• CYCLONE GELANE: AVOID ME IF YOU CAN
• Cyclone GELANE UPDATE 2 (Feb 19)
• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18)
• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S)
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Tropical Storm GELANE – UPDATE 4 (Feb 21)

GELANE Out of Steam Much Sooner than Expected

Tropical Storm GELANE weakened rapidly and is now expected to dissipate as a significant storm up to 36 hours sooner than previously forecast (within the next 48 hours).

Tropical Storm GELANE Visible/IR Satellite Image. Source: UW-CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) Details

• Date/Time: 20 February 2010 –  03:00 UTC
• Position:  Near 21.5ºS, 61.5ºE
• Sustained Movement: 190  degrees
  
• Forward speed:  13 km/hr ( 7 kt)
• The system has been tracking  SSW.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 113 km/hr (61.0 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 140 km/hr (~ 75kt)
• GELANE is currently a Tropical Storm on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 7m (21 ft)
  
• Location: TC GELANE was located about ~ 625 km EAST (97 degrees) of  Saint-Denis, Réunion, and about 435 km EAST (110 degrees) of  Port Louis, Mauritius.
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

Related Links:

• Cyclone GELANE – UPDATE 3 (Feb 20)
• CYCLONE GELANE: AVOID ME IF YOU CAN
• Cyclone GELANE UPDATE 2 (Feb 19)
• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18)
• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S)
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Cyclone GELANE – UPDATE 3 (Feb 20)

GELANE Still a Major Hurricane, May Turn Deadly

Tropical Cyclone GELANE, having reached sustained wind speeds of  about 235 km/hr, is now a Cat. 4A Hurricane force on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale with sustained winds of about 218 km/he (117.5 kt) and wind gusts of up to 260 km/hr (140 kt).

The Cyclone could track west moving toward Madagascar with the islands of Mauritius and  Réunion still in crosshairs.

Cyclone GELANE Visible/IR Satellite Image. Source: UW-CIMSS.  Click images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) Details

• Date/Time: 20 February 2010 –  01:00 UTC
• Position:  Near 18.5ºS, 61.5ºE
• Sustained Movement: 200  degrees
  
• Forward speed:  13 km/hr ( 7 kt)
• The system has been tracking  SSW.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 218 km/hr (117.5 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 260 km/hr (~ 140kt)
• GELANE is currently a Cat. 4A Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 10m (30 ft)
  
• Location: TC GELANE was located about ~ 685km (~ 370 NM) NORTHEAST (246.3 degrees) of  Saint-Denis, Réunion, and about 455 km EAST-NORTHEAST (245.5 degrees) of  Port Louis, Mauritius.
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

GELANE Satellite Image – Meto France.

• Radar Animation
• Satellite image animation

The MODIS instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite caught an impressive visible image of Gelane on February 19 at 09:45 UTC (4:45 a.m. ET) that clearly showed the eye of this Category 4 cyclone. Credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response Team. Click Image to Enlarge!

The AIRS instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured Gelane on Feb. 19 at 4:41 a.m. ET (09:41UTC). Even Gelane’s eye is visible in this infrared image, and it’s surrounded by very high, powerful thunderstorms with cloud tops as cold as -63F. Credit: NASA/JPL, Ed Olsen. Click Image to Enlarge!

Related Links:

• CYCLONE GELANE: AVOID ME IF YOU CAN
• Cyclone GELANE UPDATE 2 (Feb 19)
• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18)
• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S)
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

CYCLONE GELANE: AVOID ME IF YOU CAN

Images of the Day:

Tropical Cyclone GELANE Strengthens as Forecast

As of about 06:00UTC on February 19, Cyclone GELANE has intensified to a Cat. 4A Hurricane force on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale with sustained winds of about 222 km/he (119.8 kt) and gusts of 260 km/hr (140 kt).

Cyclone GELANE has developed a perfectly round 20-km eye. Visible Images. Source: UW-CIMSS.  Click images to enlarge.

Cyclone Gelane – 2010-02-19 00:00 — 2010-02-19 09:45 Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS, with Infrared (MIMIC-IR) – Version 1

Related Links:

• Cyclone GELANE UPDATE 2 (Feb 19)
• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18)
• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S)
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18)

TC GELANE Strengthens to a Category 2B Hurricane on  FEWW New Hurricane Scale

With sustained winds of about 170 km/hr, Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) is now a Category 2B Hurricane on  FEWW New Hurricane Scale. Fire-Earth forecasts the cyclone to reach Category 4A strength, possibly stronger, within the next 36 hours.

Cyclone GELANE. IR satellite images (NHC Enhancement). 4km resolution. Source: UW-CIMSS.  Click images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) Details

• Date/Time: 18 February 2010 –  00:01 UTC
• Position:  Near 14.3ºS, 61.6ºE
• Sustained Movement: 150  degrees
  
• Forward speed:  11 km/hr ( 6 kt)
• The Cyclone has been tracking  SOUTH-SOUTHWEST over the past 6 hours.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds:  170km/hr (92 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 205 km/hr (~ 110 kt)
• GELANE is currently a Cat. 2B Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 8m (24 ft)
  
• Location: TC GELANE was located about 970 km (~ 525 NM) NE of Réunion island.
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

Related Links:

• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S)
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S)

Images of the Day: Cyclone GELANE

Powerful, awe-inspiring [scary] storm headed toward Mauritius and Réunion

Cyclone GELANE. Visible-IR satellite images. Source: UW-CIMSS. [From Top: 2km, 4km and 8km resolutions.] Click images to enlarge.

Cyclone GELANE. IR satellite images. Source: JTWC. Date and time: Feb 16, at 23:30UTC. Click images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) Details

• Date/Time: 17 February 2010 –  15:00 UTC
• Position:  Near 14.4ºS, 61.9ºE
• Sustained Movement: 150  degrees
  
• Forward speed:  15 km/hr ( 8 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone RENE has been tracking  SOUTHWEST over the past 6 hours.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds:  150km/hr (80 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  185 km/hr ( 100 kt)
• GELANE is currently a Cat. 1 Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 6.6m (20 ft)
  
• Location: TC GELANE was located about 1,020 km (~ 550 NM) NE of Réunion island.
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

Tropical Cyclone EDZANI Powers Up to Monster Storm

Will 2010 storms be even more up close and personal?

UPDATE: 11 January 2010 at 03:00UTC
EDZANI Weakens Further

• Time/Date: 11 January 2010 –  03:00UTC
• Position: 24.2ºS, 71.5ºE
• Sustained Movement: 165 degrees
• Forward speed: 24 km/hr (~ 13 kt)

Current wind distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 140 km/hr (~ 75 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  170 km/hr (~ 90 kt)
• Maximum significant wave height: 8 meters (24 feet)
• EDZANI is about 1,670 km (900nm) ESE of La Reunion Is.
  
• Sources: JTWC and Others

Tropical Cyclone EDZANI is now a Category 1 storm on FEWW Hurricane Scale

Click image to enlarge and animate. Credit: CIMSS

UPDATE: 10 January 2010 at 03:00UTC
EDZANI Continues to Weaken

• Time/Date: 10 January 2010 –  03:00UTC
• Position: 20.4ºS, 72.1ºE
• Sustained Movement: 210 degrees
• Forward speed: 25km/hr (~ 14 kt)

Current wind distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 175 km/hr (~ 95 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  215 km/hr (~ 115 kt)
• Maximum significant wave height: 9 meters (27 feet)
  
• Sources: JTWC and Others

Tropical Cyclone EDZANI is now a Category 2B storm on FEWW Hurricane Scale

JTWC Reported:

10 January 2010 at 03:00UTC position near 20.4ºS 72.1ºE
Tropical cyclone EDZANI (TC 07S), located approximately 1,835 km (950 nm) east of La Reunion, has tracked south-southwestward at 25 km/hr (14 knots) over the past six hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows the Well defined eye feature has weakened and is no longer visible in Infrared imagery. The most recent dvorak fix from pgtw indicated the eye feature had weakened to spiral band curvature. Animated enhanced water vapor imagery indicates the favorable equatorward outflow has decreased over the past 12 hours. As EDZANI tracks southward sea surface temperatures (SST) are beginning to decrease. The combined effect of decreasing outflow and cooler SST values have caused the ongoing weakening trend in the intensity. The intensity is expected to continue the weakening trend throughout the forecast period as SST values decrease further and increased interaction with the mid-latitude westerlies causes vertical wind shear values to increase.
The subtropical ridge (STR) to the southeast remains the dominant steering source, however, a mid-latitude trough to the southwest is going to cause EDZANI to move southward and slightly south-southeast until the trough moves further east and its influence is lost. …  Maximum significant wave height at 10 00:00UTC was 9 meters (27 feet). Edited by FEWW

Other Images:

• Storm-Centered Infrared Met 7 -CIMSS
• Water Vapor – Met 7 – CIMSS
• SW Indian Ocean Met 7 IR- Meteo France

JAVA Animations:

• Real-Time Storm-Centered Visible Indian Ocean – CIMSS
• Infrared METEOSAT-5 Indian Ocean. CIMSS
• Water Vapor- METEOSAT-5 Indian Ocean. CIMSS

FOR MORE IMAGES AND SATELLITE LINKS SCROLL DOWN THIS PAGE

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UPDATE: 9 January 2010 at 03:00UTC
EDZANI Gradually Weakening

Tropical Cyclone EDZANI is now a category 4A storm on FEWW Hurricane Scale

• Time/Date: 9 January 2010 –  03:00UTC
• Position: 17.2ºS, 75.0ºE
• Sustained Movement: 235 degrees
• Forward speed: 17km/hr (9 kt)

Current wind distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 225 km/hr (~ 120 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  305 km/hr (~ 150 kt)
• Maximum significant wave height: 11 meters (34 feet)
  
• Sources: JTWC and Others

JTWC Reported:

Tropical cyclone (TC) 07S (EDZANI), located approximately 2,140 km (1155 nm) east of La Reunion has tracked southwestward at 17 km/hr (09 knots) over the past six hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery shows the low level circulation center (LLCC) has maintained a steady speed and direction over the past 12 hours. The well defined eye feature has been on a steady weakening trend over the past 12 hours as well, becoming cloud filled around [January 08, 22:00UTC]. Model guidance indicates that a mid-latitude trough will begin to weaken the deep subtropical ridging (STR) to the southeast of EDZANI and will cause a more southward track between tau 24 and 96. The trough is expected to move eastward allowing the STR to begin building to the south of EDZANI around tau 96, pushing the system slightly westward. A secondary mid-latitude trough tracking to the south of EDZANI will begin to capture the LLCC keeping it on a predominantly southward track even as the STR re-develops. Complete capture of the LLCC is not expected until after tau 120. Decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing vertical wind shear values beyond tau 60 will cause EDZANI to weaken slowly over the next five days. Maximum significant wave height on January 9 at 00:00UTC is 11 meters (34 feet). Edited by FEWW.

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EDZANI a Monster Storm and Growing

UPDATE: 8 January 2010 at 12:00UTC
EDZANI a Godzilla Storm

Tropical Cyclone EDZANI is now a category 5 storm on FEWW Hurricane Scale

• Time/Date: 8 January 2010 –  12:00UTC
• Position: 16.4ºS, 77.1ºE
• Sustained Movement: 235 degrees
• Forward speed: 15km/hr (8 kt)

Current wind distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 251 km/hr (~ 135 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  305 km/hr (~ 150 kt)
• Sources: JTWC and Others

Click image to enlarge and animate. Credit: CIMSS

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Tropical Cyclone EDZANI is now a category 4B storm on FEWW Hurricane Scale

Fed on warm ocean waters, facing little vertical wind shear and showing strong upper level outflow, EDZANI continues to strengthen.

• Time/Date: 8 January 2010 – 03:00UTC
• Position: 15.4ºS, 77.9ºE
• Sustained Movement: 245 degrees
• Forward speed: 13km/hr (7 kt)
• A category 4 storm on Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale

Current wind distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 235 km/hr (~ 125 kt)
• Maximum Gusts: 280 km/hr (~ 150 kt)
• Sources: JTWC and Others

Observation:

• Tropical Cyclone EDZANI (TC 07S) is currently located about 1,075 km (580 nm) SE of Diego Garcia, tracking west-southwestward at 13 km/hr (7 knots), and is expected to continue in its current track  during the next 24 hours. The storm should weaken as it heads toward cooler waters.

• EDZANI has continued to intensify during the past 12 hours assisted by warm ocean waters (27ºC ~ 80ºF) in the absence of high vertical wind shear, and helped by strong upper Level outflow.

• The cyclone has developed a  30 km (~15 nm) diameter eye and “is tracking west-southwestward in the peripheral flow around a deep subtropical Ridge situated to the south and east.” JTWC reported.

Infrared METEOSAT-7 Indian Ocean. Credit: CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Group

Storm Tracker. Click image to enlarge. Credit: Hawaii IFA


Water Vapor- METEOSAT-7 Indian Ocean. Click image to enlarge. Credit: CIMSS

Enhance IR – METEOSAT – 7 Indian Ocean. Click image to enlarge. Credit: CIMSS

Other Images:

• Storm-Centered Infrared Met 7 -CIMSS
• Water Vapor – Met 7 – CIMSS
  
• SW Indian Ocean Met 7 IR- Meteo France

JAVA Animations:

• Real-Time Storm-Centered Visible Indian Ocean – CIMSS
• Infrared METEOSAT-5 Indian Ocean. CIMSS
• Water Vapor- METEOSAT-5 Indian Ocean. CIMSS

TC EZANI. Source JTWC. Click image to enlarge.

• IR Satellite Imagery [JTWC]

TC EZANI Forecast track. Source JTWC. Click image to enlarge.

Related Links:

• Tropical Cyclone EDZANI Strengthens
• Tropical Cyclone Seven Forms
• El Niño
• Satellite Imagery

Edzani’s Eye Develops

NASA’s Aqua satellite captured a visible image of Tropical Cyclone Edzani in the South Indian Ocean on Jan. 7 at 0825 UTC (3:25 ET) and an eye is now clearly visible, indicating that the storm has strengthened. Credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response Team

Edzani’s Rainfall

TRMM captured an image of rainfall in Edzani on Jan. 6. The yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour. Red areas near Edzani’s center are considered heavy rainfall at almost 2 inches per hour.  Credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce

3-D Look at Edzani

TRMM data provided a 3-D look at the cloud heights; temperature and rainfall in Tropical Storm Edzani, revealing a towering cloud near 17 km (10.6 miles) high indicating a strong storm. Credit: NASA/SSAI, Hal Pierce

2 NASA satellites see Edzani power up in clouds and rainfall

The TRMM satellite passed over Tropical Cyclone Edzani in a remote area of the South Indian Ocean on January 6 at 1502 UTC (10:02 a.m. ET).

El Niño Update [20 Oct 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  19  October 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 1.2ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.0ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
for the Last Four Weeks•During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.•During the last month, equatorial SST anomalies decreased over parts of the eastern Pacific and increased over the central Pacific.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During mid August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over the central U.S., which contributed to below-average temperatures in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average. Recently, an anomalous ridge has developed in the Gulf of Alaska with a downstream trough contributing to below-average temperatures across much of the U.S. and Canada.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

• Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

• The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño [Main Page and Archive]

El Niño Update [5 Oct 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  5 Oct 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.6ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ -0.3ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Highlights

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across parts of the central and eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and mid-latitudes.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, SST anomalies remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During the last month, SST anomalies decreased over the eastern equatorial SST.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During early August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over thecentral U.S., which contributed to cooling in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average.

The most recent ONI value (July –September 2009) is +0.8oC.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates:

• El Niño [Main Page]

• El Niño Update [28 Sept 2009]
• El Niño Update [21 Sept 2009]

• El Niño Update [14 Sept 2009]
• El Niño Update [8 Sept 2009]
• El Niño Update [31 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update – 10 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 3 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 27 July 2009

• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now
• 2009 Hurricane Season

Chikungunya Makes West Nile Look Like Nappy Rash

Chikungunya is coming!

Chikungunya is hyper-endemic in the islands of the Indian Ocean. Travel by air will import the infected mosquitoes and humans —Dr James Diaz

The ink hadn’t quite dried on

Arctic ice cover third-smallest area on record

in which the FEWW Moderators, discussing the dire effects of climate change on human health,  wrote:

‘Warmer [and dirtier] waters increase mosquito reproduction, which in turn increase the incidence of  mosquito-borne infectious diseases.’

When the news of  Chikungunya arrived.

Chikungunya, a mosquito-borne disease, much worse than the West Nile virus, could become the next nightmare epidemic in the US and Europe.

Stegomyia aegypti (formerly Aedes aegypti) mosquito siting on a human. Photo: USDA.

Who’s Afraid of Chikungunya?

“We’re very worried,” Dr. James Diaz of the Louisiana University Health Sciences Center told a meeting on airlines, airports and disease transmission sponsored by the independent U.S. National Research Council.

“Unlike West Nile virus, where nine out of 10 people are going to be totally asymptomatic, or may have a mild headache or a stiff neck, if you get Chikungunya you’re going to be sick,” he said.

“The disease can be fatal. It’s a serious disease [and] there is no vaccine.” Diaz added.

The virus can be carried by the Asian tiger mosquito, which is abundant in  Asia, Africa, Australia and New Zealand, as well as Europe, the Americas.

Chikungunya has also been reported in the islands of Mauritius, Seychelles and Reunion, in the Indian ocean, which are among prime beach resorts destinations visited by European tourists.

“It is hyper-endemic in the islands of the Indian Ocean,” Diaz told the meeting.

“Travel by air will import the infected mosquitoes and humans. Chikungunya is coming.” Diaz added.”

What’s Chikungunya

Chikungunya fever is a viral disease transmitted to humans by the bite of infected mosquitoes.  Chikungunya virus is a member of the genus Alphavirus, in the family Togaviridae. Chikungunya fever is diagnosed based on symptoms, physical findings (e.g., joint swelling), laboratory testing, and the possibility of exposure to infected mosquitoes. There is no specific treatment for chikungunya fever; care is based on symptoms. Chikungunya infection is not usually fatal. Steps to prevent infection with chikungunya virus include use of insect repellent, protective clothing, and staying in areas with screens. Chikungunya virus was first isolated from the blood of a febrile patient in Tanzania in 1953, and has since been cited as the cause of numerous human epidemics in many areas of Africa and Asia and most recently in limited areas of Europe.—CDC

Chikungunya Distribution and Global Map

The geographic range of chikungunya virus is mainly in Africa and Asia.  Given the current large chikungunya virus epidemics and the worldwide distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, there is a risk of importing chikungunya virus into new area through infected travelers. —CDC

Countries where people have become infected with chikungunya virus.
Benin	Mayotte
Burundi	Myanmar
Cambodia	Nigeria
Cameroon	Pakistan
Central African Republic	Philippines
Comoros	Reunion
Congo, DRC	Senegal
East Timor	Seychelles
Gabon	Singapore
Guinea	South Africa
India	Sri Lanka
Indonesia	Sudan
Italy	Taiwan
Kenya	Tanzania
Laos	Thailand
Madagascar	Uganda
Malawi	Vietnam
Malaysia	Zimbabwe
Mauritius
This list does not include countries where only imported cases have been reported.

Chikungunya Fact Sheet (CDC update: March 4, 2008)

Chikungunya fever is a viral disease transmitted to humans by the bite of infected mosquitoes. Chikungunya virus was first isolated from the blood of a febrile patient in Tanzania in 1953, and has since been cited as the cause of numerous human epidemics in many areas of Africa and Asia, and most recently in a limited area of Europe.

What causes chikungunya fever?
Chikungunya fever is caused by a virus which belongs to the genus Alphavirus, in the family Togaviridae.

How do humans become infected with chikungunya virus?
Humans become infected with chikungunya virus by the bite of an infected mosquito. Aedes aegypti, a household container breeder and aggressive daytime biter which is attracted to humans, is the primary vector of chikungunya virus to humans. Aedes albopictus has also played a role in human transmission.

What can people do to prevent becoming infected with chikungunya virus?
The best way to prevent chikungunya virus infection is to avoid mosquito bites. There is no vaccine or preventive drug currently available. Prevention tips are similar to those for other viral diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, such as dengue or West Nile:

• Use insect repellent containing DEET, Picaridin, oil of lemon eucalyptus, or IR3535 on exposed skin. Always follow the directions on the package.
• Wear long sleeves and pants (ideally treat clothes with permethrin or another repellent).
• Have secure screens on windows and doors to keep mosquitoes out.
• Get rid of mosquito sources in your yard by emptying standing water from flower pots, buckets and barrels. Change the water in pet dishes and replace the water in bird baths weekly. Drill holes in tire swings so water drains out. Keep children’s wading pools empty and on their sides when they aren’t being used.
• Additionally, a person with chikungunya fever should limit their exposure to mosquito bites to avoid further spreading the infection. The person should use repellents when outdoors exposed to mosquito bites or stay indoors in areas with screens or under a mosquito net.

What is the basic chikungunya virus transmission cycle?
Mosquitoes become infected with chikungunya virus when they feed on an infected person. Infected mosquitoes can then spread the virus to other humans when they bite them. Monkeys, and possibly other wild animals, may also serve as reservoirs of the virus. Aedes aegypti, a household container breeder and aggressive daytime biter which is attracted to humans, is the primary vector of chikungunya virus to humans. Aedes albopictus (the Asian tiger mosquito) has also played a role in human transmission is Asia, Africa, and Europe. Various forest-dwelling mosquito species in Africa have been found to be infected with the virus.

What type of illness does chikungunya virus cause?
Chikungunya virus infection can cause a debilitating illness, most often characterized by fever, headache, fatigue, nausea, vomiting, muscle pain, rash, and joint pain. “Silent” chikungunya virus infections (infections without illness) do occur; but how commonly this happens is not yet known. Chikungunya virus infection (whether clinically apparent or silent) is thought to confer life-long immunity. Acute chikungunya fever typically lasts a few days to a couple of weeks, but as with dengue, West Nile fever, o’nyong-nyong fever and other arboviral fevers, some patients have prolonged fatigue lasting several weeks. Additionally, some patients have reported incapacitating joint pain, or arthritis which may last for weeks or months.

What is the incubation period for chikungunya fever?
The incubation period (time from infection to illness) can be 2-12 days, but is usually 3-7 days.

Can pregnant women become infected with chikungunya virus and pass the infection to their child?
Pregnant women can become infected with chikungunya virus during all stages of pregnancy and have symptoms similar to other individuals. Most infections will not result in the virus being transmitted to the fetus. The highest risk for infection of the fetus/child occurs when a woman has virus in her blood (viremic) at the time of delivery. There are also rare reports of first trimester abortions occurring after chikungunya infection. Pregnant women should take precautions to avoid mosquito bites. Products containing DEET can be used in pregnancy without adverse effects.

Can the virus be transmitted to a child by breastfeeding?
Currently, there is no evidence that the virus is transmitted through breast milk

What is the mortality rate of chikungunya fever?
Fatalities related to chikungunya virus are rare and appear to be associated to increased age.

How is chikungunya virus infection treated?
There is no vaccine or specific antiviral treatment currently available for chikungunya fever. Treatment is symptomatic and can include rest, fluids, and medicines to relieve symptoms of fever and aching such as ibuprofen, naproxen, acetaminophen, or paracetamol. Aspirin should be avoided. Infected persons should be protected from further mosquito exposure (staying indoors in areas with screens and/or under a mosquito net) during the first few days of the illness so they can not contribute to the transmission cycle.

Where does chikungunya virus occur?
The geographic range of the virus is primarily in Africa and Asia. For information on current outbreaks, consult CDC’s Travelers’ Health website (http://wwwn.cdc.gov/travel/default.aspx). Given the current large chikungunya virus epidemics and the world wide distribution of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, there is a risk of importation of chikungunya virus into new areas by infected travelers.

Content source:

Division of Vector Borne Infectious Diseases
National Center for Zoonotic, Vector-Borne, and Enteric Diseases

Related Links:

• Arctic ice cover third-smallest area on record
• Malaria parasites resist old drugs, need new ones!
• A Living Hell Heated by Australian Coal

El Niño Update [14 Sept 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 14 Sept 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have increased in some areas of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During the last month, the change in equatorial SST

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.

Weekly Heat Content Evolution in the Equatorial Pacific

1. During September 2008 –January 2009, negative heat content anomalies returned and then strengthened in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as La Niña conditions redeveloped.

2. The negative anomalies weakened during January-March 2009, with anomalies becoming positive since late March.

In April 2009, the combined effects of an oceanic Kelvin wave and weaker easterly trade winds contributed to an increase in the upper-ocean heat content anomalies across the Pacific Ocean.

Since April 2009, heat content anomalies have remained above-average.

3. Recently, the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave has shifted eastward.

Oceanic Kelvin waves have alternating warm and cold phases. The warm phase is indicated by dashed lines. Down-welling and warming occur in the leading portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and cooling occur in the trailing portion.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 13 September 2009
El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5ºC above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.

For additional information see following links.

Relate Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates

• El Niño Update [31 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]
• El Niño Update – 10 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 3 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 27 July 2009

• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now
• 2009 Hurricane Season

El Niño Update [31 Aug 2009]

Special Issue with the EN Doubters in Mind!

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 31 August 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 1.0ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.8ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

Global SST Departures
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks:
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average near the Date Line and in the eastern Pacific.

Weekly SST Departures for the Last Four Weeks

• During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have increased in some areas of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• During the last month, the change in equatorial SST anomalies was slightly positive.

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-averagefrom mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific

• During early July through late August 2009, positive sub-surface temperature anomalies weakened in the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile, positive anomalies in the western Pacific have shifted eastward.
• The most recent period (below) shows positive anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, with the largest anomalies near 125m depth in the central Pacific.

Weekly Heat Content Evolution in the Equatorial Pacific

• During September 2008 –January 2009, negative heat content anomalies returned and then strengthened in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as La Niña conditions redeveloped.
• The negative anomalies weakened during January-March 2009, with anomalies becoming positive since late March.
• In April 2009, the combined effects of an oceanic Kelvin wave and weaker easterly trade winds contributed to an increase in the upper-ocean heat content anomalies across the Pacific Ocean.
• Since April 2009, heat content anomalies have remained above-average.
• Recently, the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave has shifted eastward.

Outgoing LongwaveRadiation (OLR) Anomalies
From February 2007-May 2009, convection has been suppressed across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Convection has occasionally been enhanced over the western equatorial Pacific and central Indian Ocean. Since mid-May 2009, convection has remained mostly suppressed over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. During July 2009, convection was enhanced near the Date Line and over the western Pacific.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

• Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
• The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority of the models indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.

Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 Aug 2009).

Summary

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
• Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Typical US Temperature, Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during El Niño Winters

All images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/ NCEP/ NOAA.

See  El Niño Home Page for previous entries and related links.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates

• El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]

• El Niño Update – 10 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 3 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 27 July 2009
• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now
• 2009 Hurricane Season

El Niño Update [17 Aug 2009]

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 17 August 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

• Niño 4   ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 3.4  ~ 0.7ºC
• Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
• Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC

El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) –  Recent Evolution

During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C [0.9°C] above average in the east-central and eastern Pacific.

Summary:

• El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

• Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

See  El Niño Home Page for previous entries and related links.

Related Links:

• Recognizing El Niño
• El Niño and La Niña: Tracing the Dance of Ocean and Atmosphere
• TAO Diagrams
• El Niño Forecasts

El Niño Updates

• El Niño Update – 10 August 2009

• El Niño Update – 3 August 2009
• El Niño Update – 27 July 2009
• El Niño Update – 20 July 2009
• El Niño Update # 1
• El Niño conditions is in progress —NOAA
• El Niño event almost certain: BOM
• El Niño could develop June – August 2009
• World Now
• 2009 Hurricane Season

Image of the Day: TC Gael

Tropical Cyclone Gael (Satellite Image)

At 0600 UTC on February 05 , Tropical Cyclone Gael was located near 18.4S 57.0E approximately 185 NM north-northeast of Mascarene Islands. TC Gael was moving westward at 14 mph with maximum sustained winds of 63 mph and gusts up to 81 mph. IMAGE D6140: METEOSAT <> Image Type=combined <> 2/05/2009 6:00 UTC. Source: The NOAA Operational Significant Event Imagery Support Team (NOSEIST)

TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN

Source: CIMSS

A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 81.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 81.0E, APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KOTTE, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER WATER FROM NORTHERN SRI LANKA.

Tropical Cyclone Six. Still Satellite image dated as shown. Image credit: CIMSS

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.

WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

Source: CIMSS

“We thought that it was Jesus who had come back”

Folks, it ain’t Jesus; it’s Human-induced climate change. Ask your local teacher to tell you about the effects of GHG Emissions!

The ferocious storm in Busara, about 260 km northwest of the capital, Nairobi, turned parts of central Kenya white with a massive hailstorm.

Villagers play with snow after heavy hailstorms hit a deforested hillside in Gikingi Village in Nyahururu town, some 220km from Nairobi, September 3, 2008. REUTERS/Antony Njuguna. Image may be subject to copyright.

“We thought a big white sheet had been spread, so we decided to come and see for ourselves. We thought that it was Jesus who had come back,” a villager said.

“The hailstones falling on the ground joined together to form expansive sheets of ice or snow flakes occupying a large area, 30 acres,” meteorologists said. the storm was caused “the convergence of cold air currents from the Indian Ocean and warm air currents from the Congo.”

“In fact this thing is very sweet, we have never seen anything like this. We like the ice so much because with the sun being hot, you take it and you feel satisfied,” another villager said.

Kenya straddles the equator. “The only snow to be seen in normally sunny Kenya is on top of the country’s highest mountain, 5,199-meter (17,057 ft) Mount Kenya.” Reuters said.

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• Blind scientists examining the economic elephant
• Stop Burning the earth

• Energy
  
• Failing Ecosystems

• World Problems:The Root Cause Matrix
• First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities

• Future Scenarios
• Nuking Earth for Lifestyle

• Giga Trends
• The Economy

• A 2009 Forecast
• World CO2 Emissions

• How Much Carbon Dioxide Does Your Money Make?
• The Billionaires’ contribution to CO2 pollution