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Posts Tagged ‘Iwaki Earthquake’

Japan Earthquake Forecast

Posted by feww on February 14, 2012

Japan Region Earthquakes: Currently Valid Forecasts by FIRE-EARTH

A Note to Seismologists at Tokyo University and Tohoku University, Japan

FIRE-EARTH MODERATORS STRONGLY URGE YOU TO PRODUCE  ORIGINAL RESEARCH AND REFRAIN FROM PIGGYBACK RIDING ON OUR FORECASTS.

ONCE AGAIN, YOU HAVE MADE US EXTREMELY RELUCTANT TO POST ANY FUTURE EARTHQUAKE FORECAST.

Staff at Research Center for Prediction of Earthquakes & Volcanic Eruptions, Graduate School of Science, Tohoku University are strongly advised to focus on probability of the next major earthquake in China.

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FIRE-EARTH Forecast

Large Earthquake Could Strike Tokyo Area

Megaqauke measuring up to 9.2Mw could strike Tokyo / Chiba Area:  FIRE-EARTH Forecast [Posted by feww on March 16, 2011]

Details of Earthquake Forecast:

  • Magnitude: 8.8Mw [Uncertainty= ±0.4Mw]
  • Location: 50 – 150km radius of Tokyo Bay Area
  • Depth: 24km [Uncertainty= N/A]
  • Occurrence Time:
    • Between now and November 2011 [Probability = 0.70]
    • Between December 2011 and October 2012 [Probability = 0.64]
    • Between November 2012  and December 2016 [Probability = 0.78]

Tokyo University Seismologists

70% chance of big Tokyo earthquake ‘within 4 yrs’

The Yomiuri Shimbun —  There is a 70 percent probability the Tokyo metropolitan area will be hit directly by a strong earthquake of magnitude-7 level within four years, according to data compiled by a University of Tokyo research team.

The preliminary calculations conducted by a team from the university’s Earthquake Research Institute were based on intensified seismic activity in the area after the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11.

The findings are more dire than a similar estimate by the central government’s Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, which states there is a 70 percent chance a quake of the same scale will hit the southern Kanto region, including the metropolitan area, within 30 years.

The central government’s Central Disaster Management Council assumes 18 different hypocenters of magnitude-7 level earthquakes, such as in southern Ibaraki Prefecture and the Tachikawa fault zone.

If a magnitude-7.3 earthquake occurs directly under northern Tokyo Bay, as many as 11,000 people are expected to die and about 850,000 buildings to be rendered totally unusable or destroyed by fire.

According to the Meteorological Agency’s observations, after the March 11 disaster, earthquakes of magnitude 3 to 6 occurred an average of 1.48 times a day in the metropolitan area through December. This was about five times the pre-disaster average.

Prof. Naoshi Hirata of the university’s research institute and others based their calculations on the rule of thumb that the frequency of earthquakes is inversely proportional to their strength. For every increase in magnitude of one, the frequency of their occurrence falls by 90 percent.

The metropolitan area was hit by the magnitude-8 level Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923. Five weaker but still serious earthquakes of magnitude-7 level also hit an area extending from southern Ibaraki Prefecture to the Uraga Channel over a period of about 120 years.

The government’s earthquake headquarters obtained its quake estimate data based on the intervals of these quakes in the past. The data did not incorporate the increased seismic activity after the March 11 disaster.

Experts believe seismic activity in the metropolitan area has been intensified by changes in the movements of the Earth’s crust since March 11.

“Intensified seismic activity will continue from several to 10 more years,” Hirata said. “It’s highly probable a strong quake with a magnitude of about 7 will occur during that time.  (Jan. 24, 2012)

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Fukushima Nuclear Plant Rattled by M6.3 Quake

Posted by feww on April 12, 2011

JAPAN MUST DECOMMISSION ALL NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS NOW !

WARNING: JPTRMT1

Another Strong Shock Rattles Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

The latest shock measuring 6.3Mw struck about 53km SW of the crippled Fukushima NPP, and 29km west of Iwaki city at a depth of 10km.

EQ details release by JMA

Occurred at (JST) Latitude
(degree)
Longitude
(degree)
Depth Magnitude Region Name
14:07 JST 12 Apr 2011 37.0N 140.7E 10 km 6.3 Fukushima-ken Hamadori

Distances (USGS)

  • 29 km (18 miles) W (280°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
  • 70 km (43 miles) S (172°) from Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
  • 83 km (52 miles) N (6°) from Mito, Honshu
  • 177 km (110 miles) NNE (25°) from TOKYO


Earthquake Location Map: JMA


Earthquake Location Map: USGS

Note: JPTRMT1 is an acronym for Japan Trench Megathrust Earthquake No.1

Japan Nuclear Disaster Update

Japanese authorities have finally raised the measure of severity of the Fukushima NPP disaster to the maximum level of 7 on INES, officials said in an NHK telecast.

Japanese government’s Nuclear Safety Commission had earlier revealed that the amount of radioactive iodine 131 released from Fukushima NPP had reached 10,000 terabecquerels per hour, for several hours at one stage, a level that prompted classification of the breach as a Major Accident [level 7 on INES, e.g, Chernobyl disaster, criticality accident, April 1986, see below,] Kyodo news reported.

The radiation level has subsequently fallen  to about one terabecquerel per hour, a report said.

“We have upgraded the severity level to seven as the impact of radiation leaks has been widespread from the air, vegetables, tap water and the ocean,” said a spokesman for Japan’s Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA).

Radiation leaks from the stricken nuclear plant have not stopped completely and could exceed the  Chernobyl release 25 years ago, an TEPCO official said, NHK reported.

Japan’s Triple Disaster: Human Cost

  • Official Death Toll: 13,133
  • Missing:  14,345
  • Homeless: At least 155,000
  • Others: In addition to the above, an unknown number of people in remote areas may have perished, but no records are available as of posting.

The International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)

The INES, a logarithmic scale, which was introduced in 1990 by the IAEA to enable prompt communication, classifies the intensity of nuclear incidents as follows:

7 – Major Accident [Chernobyl disaster, criticality accident, April 1986]

6 – Serious Accident [e.g., Kyshtym incident, Mayak, former Soviet Union, steam explosion released up to 80 tons of highly radioactive material into the atmosphere, September 1957. ]

5 – Accident With Wider Consequences [e.g., Three Mile Island accident  Pen State, U.S., partial meltdown release radioactive gases  into the environment, March 1979.]

4 – Accident With Local Consequences [e.g., Sellafield, UK, at least 5 incidents reported between 1955 to 1979]

3 – Serious Incident [e.g., Vandellos NPP, Spain, fire destroyed control systems; the reactor was shut down, July1989]

2 – Incident [e.g., Forsmark NPP, Sweden, a backup generator failed, July 2006]

1 – Anomaly [e.g., TNPC, France, 1,600 gallons of water containing 75 kilograms (170 lb) of uranium leaked into the environment,  July 2008]

0 – Deviation (No Safety Significance) [e.g., Atucha, Argentina – Reactor shutdown caused by tritium increase in reactor encasement, December 2006.]

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster by Country

The following probability figures are calculated by FIRE-EARTH on April 8, 2011

THIS SECTION HAS BEEN REVISED AND POSTED AT

Probability of a Nuclear Disaster – by Country

on April 18, 2011

Notes:

  1. The list represents a snapshot of events at the time of calculating the probabilities. Any forecast posted  here is subject to numerous variable factors.
  2. Figures in the bracket represent the probability of an incident occurring out of 1,000; the forecast duration is valid for the next 50  months.
  3. Probability includes a significant worsening of Fukushima nuclear disaster, and future quakes forecast for Japan.
  4. A nuclear incident is defined as a level 5 (Accident With Wider Consequences), or worse, on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). See below.
  5. Safety issues considered in compiling these lists include the age, number of units and capacity of nuclear reactors in each country/state, previous incidents, probability of damage from human-enhanced natural disasters, e.g., earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic activity, hurricanes, tornadoes, storms, wildfires, flooding… ]
  6. The  Blog’s knowledge concerning the extent to which the factors described in (3) might worsen during the forecast period greatly influences the forecast.

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