Mega Quake Measuring about 9.6Mw Could Strike Near Fukushima, Japan: FIRE-EARTH
FIRE-EARTH Models show that a large earthquake measuring up to 9.6Mw could strike within a 130 km coast of Fukushima, Japan.
Forecast Details:
- Magnitude: Up to 9.6Mw
- Estimated Depth: 15km (±5km)
- Location: Epicentered near 37.63ºN, 142.45ºE
- Position: 130km east of Minamisōma, Fukushima, Japan
- Expected Time of occurrence: July – October 2011
- Probability of Occurrence: 72%
Global Tectonics Alert – April 9
JPTRMT1 – FIRE-EARTH estimates that about 80 exajoules (EJ) of tectonic stress energy could be accumulated in Japan Region between now and early 2016.
FIRE-EARTH Models show that most of the energy would be released as large earthquakes including a massive shock, a Megathrust earthquake, the largest on record, measuring 10.0+Mw, which could release about 64EJ of energy.
[NOTE: The 1960 Valdivia earthquake—The Great Chilean Earthquake—is the largest ever recorded earthquake measuring 9.5Mw. The quake struck on May 22, 1960 at 38.29ºS, 73.0ºW. Seismic moment release: ~ 11.3 EJ]
Previous Forecasts
- TOKYO AREA QUAKE WARNING Posted on March 16, 2011
- FIRE-EARTH Forecasts: Japan Earthquakes Posted on March 13, 2011
- MEGA QUAKE STRIKES NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU
- Tectonics Update – March 10
- Strong Earthquake Strikes East of Honshu, Japan Posted on June 13, 2010
- M6.5 Strikes East Coast of Honshu, Japan Posted on July 5, 2010
- Honshu Earthquake Warning Posted on November 10, 2010