HUNGER: States of Emergency Declared Across the Sahel

10 million threatened by hunger as Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger declare states of emergency

Niger (pop: ~ 16million) is the worst affected country with almost half of its population left without enough to eat.

Disaster Calendar 2012 – February 20

[February 20, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,486 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• The Sahel, Africa. Ten million people are threatened by hunger across the Sahel, as Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger declare states of emergency.
  • “Nearly half of Niger does not have enough to eat.  The 5.4 million people struggling to stay alive are part of a wider crisis affecting at least 10 million people across the swath across Africa that borders the Sahara, known as the Sahel,” said a spokeswoman for Mercy Corps.
  • “This is the third time in the last decade the people of the Sahel have faced severe food shortages.”

Other Disasters

• Global.  Wildfires kill about 339,000 people each year, according to a new study.
  • The fires consume about 450 million hectares, an area half the size of Canada.
  • [Notes:
    •  In China alone indoor air pollution kills 2.2 million youths.
    • Urban air pollution kills about 2.4 million people globally each year, said The World Health Organization (WHO); however, the true figure may be 10 times as many.]
  • About 157,000 of the deaths caused by wildfires occur in sub-Saharan Africa, and 110,000 deaths in southeast Asia.
  • The study suggests a link between climate and wildfire mortality.
  • El Niño years, when the surface ocean temperature rises in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, claim an average of 532,000 lives, twice as many as the cooler La Niña years, averaging 262,000 deaths per year.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar 

Drought: Recent Links

• Drought tightens grip on S. Mozambique Posted on January 16, 2012
• Niger Faces Food Shortages Posted on December 25, 2011
• Disaster Calendar 2011: Famine Spreads in Somalia Posted on August 4, 2011
• Worst drought in living memory gripping Horn of Africa Posted on June 29, 2011

2011 warmest year with La Niña event

Global Climate 2011: Warmest year with La Niña, 10th warmest year, lowest Arctic sea ice volume

Average global temperatures this year so far are the 10th highest on record and are higher than all previous years with a La Niña event, which has a relative cooling effect, WMO reported.

Disaster Calendar 2011 – November 30

[November 30, 2011]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,568 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Global. World’s 13 warmest years on record have all occurred since 1997, a period of 15 years. The heating has impacted the extent of Arctic sea ice which fell to its second lowest this year, with its volume being the lowest ever recorded.
• The 2002-2011 period is the warmest decade on record (jointly with 2001-2010), some 0.46°C above the long-term average.

• Average global temperatures this year so far are the 10th highest on record and are higher than all previous years with a La Niña event, which has a relative cooling influence, WMO reported.
• “Our role is to provide the scientific knowledge to inform action by decision makers,” said WMO Secretary-General Michel Jarraud in a press release.
• “Our science is solid and it proves unequivocally that the world is warming and that this warming is due to human activities,” he added.
• “Surface air temperatures were above the long-term average in 2011 over most land areas of the world. The largest departures from average were over Russia, especially in northern Russia where January-October temperatures were about 4°C above average in places,” the WMO report said.
• “Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached new highs. They are very rapidly approaching levels consistent with a 2-2.4 degree Centigrade rise in average global temperatures which scientists believe could trigger far reaching and irreversible changes in our Earth, biosphere and oceans.” WMO’s Jarraud said.

[Hate to break this to you, Secretary-General Jarraud, but we saw  the “you’ve now passed the tipping point” sign down the highway many miles ago. FIRE-EARTH]

• Up-to-date weekly average CO₂ at Mauna Loa

• Week of November 20, 2011:     390.44 ppm
• Weekly value from 1 year ago:     389.38 ppm
• Weekly value from 10 years ago:     370.11 ppm

• Recent Global CO₂

• September 2011:     388.04 ppm
• September 2010:     386.44 ppm

The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites. Source: ESRL

• Time history of atmospheric CO2 (2011 update)

Related Links

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities  (EDRO Forecast)
• 2011 Much More Disastrous: FIRE-EARTH Forecast
• Global Disasters in 2011 Could Impact 1/3 to 1/2 of the Human Population  (FIRE-EARTH Forecast)
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs  (FIRE-EARTH Forecast)

• 2010 Disaster Calendar 
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Texas Wildfires Destroy 1,626 Homes, as Drought Worsens

Extreme and exceptional drought levels plague nearly 96 percent of Texas

Wildfires have consumed more than 3.62 million acres of Texas since January

READ THIS FIRST

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FIRE-EARTH will continue to update the 2011 Disaster Calendar for the benefit of its readers.

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“Oppressive heat and fires were the story in the country’s mid-section and southern Plains as no relief was seen there this past week. In a bit of cruel irony, it was the strong and persistent winds of Lee, which just missed the mark of the drought’s epicenter in Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico, that fanned the large number of fire outbreaks in Texas.” Drought Monitor

Disaster Calendar 2011 – September 8

[September 8, 2011]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,651 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Texas, USA. The total number of homes destroyed by Bastrop fire is now confirmed at 1,386. At least 240 additional homes have been lost on other fires since Sunday, for a total of about 1,626, TFS reported.
• The worst fires in Central Texas for at least a century are fulled by a year-long intense drought, low humidity and strong winds generated by the remnants of weather system that had earlier spawned Tropical Storm Lee.
• Texas has been plagued by its worst drought in at least 6 decades.
• Drought is expected to continue in Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico.
• Fire Management Details(Texas Forest Service, TFS)
  • Date: Thursday, September 8, 2011
  • National Preparedness Level: 3
  • Southern Area Preparedness Level: 4
  • TFS Preparedness Level: 5
• Fire Stats
  • Total Number of Fires YTD: ~ 18,776
  • Acres burned: ~ 3,621,589 [“That’s roughly the size of Connecticut.” Rick Perry said.]
  • Structures Destroyed by Fire: 4,155 units [FEWW Estimate: ~5,200]
  • Fires in the past 7 days: TFS has responded to 176 fires for 126,844 acres.
  • Since Sunday about 1,626  homes and other structures have been destroyed in various fires.
  • At least 5,000 people have been forced to abandon their homes.
  • About 700 people are in emergency shelters.
  • The 34,000-acre Bastrop Complex Fire near Austin is reportedly 30 percent contained.
  • BEAR CREEK (#536), Cass County. 25,000 acres, unknown containment. The fire is burning very actively in heavy timber and is threatening numerous houses. Eight homes have been destroyed.
  • PEDERNALES BEND (Spicewood), Travis County. 6,500 acres, 80 percent contained. Sixty-seven homes were destroyed.
  • RILEY ROAD, Grimes/Montgomery/Waller counties. 11,000 acres, 60 percent contained. Seventy-five homes have been destroyed just west of Magnolia.
  • TAMINA ROAD, Montgomery County. 150 acres, unknown containment. Hundreds of homes were evacuated Monday, but none was reported lost.
  • UNION CHAPEL, Bastrop County. 912 acres, 90 percent contained. Twenty-five homes were destroyed just west of Bastrop.
  • PETERS CHAPEL, Harrison County. 650 acres, 80 percent contained. The fire is burning actively in pine plantation. Numerous homes have been evacuated. Two homes were destroyed.
  • STEINER RANCH, Travis County. 125 acres, 50 percent contained.  More than 1,000 homes were evacuated. Thirty-five homes were destroyed.
  • #491, Limestone County. 3,000 acres, 95 percent contained. One was lost 20 miles east of Waco.
  • DELHI, Caldwell County. 6,000 acres. Six homes were lost on this fire east of Lockhart.
  • BAILEY, Colorado County. 2,300 acres, 90 percent contained. This fast-moving fire threatened 40 homes near Columbus. Ten homes were destroyed.
  • DIANA (#545), Upshur County. 2,500 acres, 70 percent contained. Twenty homes are threatened.
  • LUTHERHILL, Fayette County. 2,700 acres, 95 percent contained. The community of Ruttersville was evacuated. Fourteen homes were destroyed.
  • MOORE, Smith County. 1,500 acres, 90 percent contained. Ten homes were evacuated and five were lost on this fire burning on the Smith/Gregg County line. Two civilian fatalities were reported.
  • Wildfires in East Texas have consumed at least 2,000 acres, killing a woman and her baby and destroying more than a dozen homes, a report said.
  • BOOT WALKER (#553), Marion County. 1,000 acres, unknown containment. Thirty homes are threatened.
  • TOAD ROAD (#552), Upshur County. 350 acres, unknown containment. Three homes were lost and dozens remain threatened.
  • HOPEWELL (#854), Walker County. 1,035 acres, 90 percent contained. Thirty homes have been evacuated, five homes were destroyed.
  • HALSBRO COMPLEX, Red River County. 958 acres, unknown containment. Fifteen homes are threatened, but none reported lost.
  • #502, Nacogdoches County. 4,000 acres, unknown containment. More than a dozen homes have been evacuated, but none lost.
  • ARBOR, Houston County. 3,000 acres, 90 percent contained. Up to 15 homes are reported lost.
  • OLD MAGNOLIA, Gregg County. 1,000 acres, 80 percent contained. Several structures and a gas plant are threatened. Two fuel tanks exploded.
  • #839, Leon County (Concord Robbins). 4,689 acres, 90 percent contained. Twenty homes are reported lost and more than 300 were evacuated.
  • 101 RANCH, Palo Pinto County. 6,555 acres, 85 percent contained. The fire is burning on the south side of Possum Kingdom Lake near the town of Brad. Thirty-nine homes and nine RV’s have been reported destroyed.
  • Death toll from the fire outbreak has climbed to at least 4, a report said.
  • Yesterday (September 7, 2011) TFS responded to 20 new fires for 1,422 acres, including new large fires in Red River, Smith, and Cherokee/Rusk counties.
  • TFS has responded to 176 fires for 126,844 acres in the past seven days.
  • Texas drought-related losses YTD: At least $10 billion

• Oklahoma, USA. D3 and D4 (extreme and exceptional) drought levels now plague nearly 85.5 percent of the state.
• New Mexico, USA. D3 and D4 drought levels have intensified across NM, currently gripping about 72.2 percent of the state, a rise of more than 11 percent since last week.

Global Climate

The forecasters at Climate Prediction Center (CPC) have upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory. “La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter.”

“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the CPC. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.”

Other Global Incidents

• Wellington, New Zealand. A mystery virus with flu-like symptoms has forced at least one Wellington school to shut  down, as a third of of the students and half the staff were sickened, a report said.
• “Some students were also suffering ear and chest infections.”

Related Links

• Mega Heatwaves Could Kill Tens of Thousands in the U.S. FIRE-EARTH Forecast
• U.S. Disaster Losses Mounting
• 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season: AAA  FIRE-EARTH Forecast
• U.S. back-to-back disasters phase has begun
• 2011 Much More Disastrous: FIRE-EARTH Forecast
• Global Disasters in 2011 Could Impact 1/3 to 1/2 of the Human Population
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs FIRE-EARTH Forecast

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities EDRO Forecast
• 2011 Disaster Calendar – August
• 2010 Disaster Calendar 
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

2010 Tied For Warmest Year on Record: NOAA

2010 joint warmest and  wettest year on record

Last year tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record for global surface temperature

• The 2010 global land surface temperature were 0.96ºC (1.73º F) above the 20th century average.

• Global ocean surface temperatures in 2010 tied with 2005 as the third warmest at 0.49ºC (0.88ºF ) above the 20th century average.

• 2010 was also the wettest year on record, compared to global average precipitation.

Highlights from NASA Climate Section:

• September Arctic sea ice is now declining at a rate of 11.5 percent per decade, relative to the 1979 to 2000 average. The September 2010 extent was the third lowest in the satellite record.
• As of December 10, 2010, the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere were 391 ppm.
• Data from NASA’s Grace satellite show that the land ice sheets in both Anarctica and Greenland are losing mass. The continent of Antarctica (left chart) has been losing more than 100 cubic kilometers (24 cubic miles) of ice per year since 2002.
• Sea levels have risen by 53mm since 1993, and by 100 to 200mm since the past century. Sea rise is caused by the thermal expansion of sea water due to climate warming and widespread melting of land ice.

“2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest year of the global surface temperature record, beginning in 1880. This was the 34th consecutive year with global temperatures above the 20th century average. For the contiguous United States alone, the 2010 average annual temperature was above normal, resulting in the 23rd warmest year on record,” NOAA researchers say.

The following is mirrored from NOAA website:

2010 Global Climate Highlights

Global surface temperature anomalies for 2010. Click image to enlarge.

• Combined global land and ocean annual surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record at 1.12 F (0.62 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence (to the 95 percent level) associated with the combined surface temperature is +/- 0.13 F (+/- 0.07 C).*
• The global land surface temperatures for 2010 were tied for the second warmest on record at 1.73 F (0.96 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence associated with the land surface temperature is +/- 0.20 F (+/- 0.11 C).
• Global ocean surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the third warmest on record, at 0.88 F (0.49 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence associated with the ocean surface temperature is +/- 0.11 F (+/- 0.06 C).
• In 2010 there was a dramatic shift in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences global temperature and precipitation patterns — when a moderate-to-strong El Niño transitioned to La Niña conditions by July. At the end of November, La Niña was moderate-to-strong.
• According to the Global Historical Climatology Network, 2010 was the wettest year on record, in terms of global average precipitation. As with any year, precipitation patterns were highly variable from region to region.
• The 2010 Pacific hurricane season had seven named storms and three hurricanes, the fewest on record since the mid-1960s when scientists started using satellite observations. By contrast, the Atlantic season was extremely active, with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. The year tied for third- and second-most storms and hurricanes on record, respectively.
• The Arctic sea ice extent had a record long growing season, with the annual maximum occurring at the latest date, March 31, since records began in 1979. Despite the shorter-than-normal melting season, the Arctic still reached its third smallest annual sea ice minimum on record behind 2007 and 2008. The Antarctic sea ice extent reached its eighth smallest annual maximum extent in March, while in September, the Antarctic sea ice rapidly expanded to its third largest extent on record.
• A negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) in January and February helped usher in very cold Arctic air to much of the Northern Hemisphere. Record cold and major snowstorms with heavy accumulations occurred across much of eastern North America, Europe and Asia. The February AO index reached -4.266, the largest negative anomaly since records began in 1950.
• From mid-June to mid-August, an unusually strong jet stream shifted northward of western Russia while plunging southward into Pakistan. The jet stream remained locked in place for weeks, bringing an unprecedented two-month heat wave to Russia and contributing to devastating floods in Pakistan at the end of July.

2010 Selected Climate Anomalies and Events Map. Source: NOAA

Top 10 Climate Anomalies in 2010
1.    Russian – European – Asian Heat Waves     (Summer)
2.    2010 as [near] warmest year on record     (calendar year)
3.    Pakistani Flooding     (Late July – August)
4.    El Niño to La Niña Transition     (Mid-to-Late Boreal Spring)
5.    Negative Arctic Oscillation     (Early 2010 )
6.    Brazilian Drought     (Ongoing)
7-tie.     Historically Inactive NE Pacific Hurricane Season     (May 15 – Nov 30)
7-tie.     Historic N. Hemispheric Snow Retreat     (January – June )
9.    Minimum Sea Ice Extent     (mid-September)
10.    China Drought    (First Half of 2010)

Contenders for the Top 10 List

• China Floods     (Early Aug)
• Large Iceberg Breaks off Petermann Glacier    (5-Aug)
• Igor & Julia Simultaneous Category 4 Hurricanes     (15-Sep)
• Super Typhoon Megi     (Oct 12-24 )
• Coral Reef Bleaching     (NH Spring -Summer)
• Cyclone Phet     (Early June)
• Bangladesh Driest Monsoon Season since 1994     (Warm Season)
• Hurricane Celia     (Jun 19-28)
• Summer Snow in Australia     (18-Jan)
• Atlantic Cyclone Xynthia     (27-Feb)
• European Cold Snap & Winter Storm     (Early Jan)
• South American Cold Snap     (July)
• Extreme Winter Weather in Europe**     (Most of December)
• Australian Flooding**     (25-Dec)

** This event occurred after the top ten voting, but may have warranted top ten placement.

Click image to enlarge. (Source: NOAA)

See Also:

State of the Climate Global Hazards

• Global Hazards/Events, December 2010 ( Drought and wildfires, Flooding, severe storms, severe winter weather.)
• Global Hazards/Events, November 2010 (Hurricane Tomas, A rare early season winter storm across the U.S. states of Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, Record warm temperatures across western Russia.)
• Global Hazards/Events, October 2010 (Hurricane Tomas, Super Typhoon Megi, Tornado Outbreak in Arizona, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, September 2010 (Typhoon Fanapi hits Taiwan & China, 2 tornadoes in New York City, Tropical Storm Earl in Nove Scotia, wildfire in Colorado, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, August 2010 (Flooding in China & Pakistan, Tropical Storm Dianmu in South Korea, heat wave/drought in Russia, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, July 2010 (Typhoon Conson in Philippines/Vietnam, heat wave in U.S. & Canada, monsoonal rains in Pakistan & India, severe flooding in Northern China, heavy rains in Texas & Mexico, heat wave & wildfires in Western Russia, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, June 2010 (Hurricane Alex in Mexico/Belize, Winter Tornado in New South Wales, Tornado in Ohio, Flooding in Arkansas, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, May 2010 (Tropical Storm Agatha, Flooding in China and Central Europe, Drought in Hawaii, Tropical Cyclone Laila, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, April 2010 (Tornado kills 10 in Mississippi, heatwave in Northeastern U.S., Nor’wester kills 137 in Eastern India/Bangladesh, heavy rainfall causes mudslides/landslides in Peru and Brazil, volcanic eruption in Iceland, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, March 2010 (Tropical Cyclone Tomas strikes Fiji, drought in Hawaii, Nor’easter hits U.S. East Coast, major sandstorm in China, tropical storm Hubert in Madagascar, record heavy rainfall in northeastern Australia, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, February 2010 (Xynthia attacks Western Europe, Mid-Atlantic/Deep South U.S. snows, Nor’easter hits U.S. East Coast, drought in Southern China, avalanches in Afghanistan, record heat in Western Australia, etc.)
• Global Hazards/Events, January 2010 (Northern Asia extreme cold/snowfall, freezing temperatures in Bangladesh/Nepal, flooding in Egypt/Israel/Kenya, cold damages citrus crop in Florida, wintry precipitation cripples southern U.S., etc.)

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Hazards for November 2010, published online December 2010, retrieved on January 10, 2011 from http://www.noaa.gov.

Related Links:

• Global Climate Extremes INTENSIFYING

Impact of El Niño and La Niña on Rainfall

How El Niño and La Niña affect Rainfall

El Niño 1997

La Niña, 1988

El Niño and its counterpart La Niña alter weather patterns across the world. These images show the strongest El Niño and La Niña events of the past twenty years and their impact on rainfall over North and South America.

The top image pair shows the El Niño event of 1997, and the direct correlation between warm surface waters and rainfall. The 1997 El Niño was unusually strong and brought heavy rain to northwest South America and the southern United States. Cooler ocean temperatures caused drought in Australia and Indonesia, as shown in the 1997 rainfall anomaly image.

The lower image pair shows La Niña in 1988 . La Niña occurs when the eastern Pacific off the coast of South America cools. The unusually cold ocean cools the atmosphere above it. The cool, dense air means less  rain falls over the cold waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Image reveals that the drought reached Peru and Ecuador in northwest South America. Globally, La Niña causes unusually heavy rain in India, Southeast Asia, Australia, and southeastern Africa.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Rob Simmon and Jesse Allen, based on data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Holli Riebeek. [Edited for brevity by FEWW]

Related Links:

• El Niño

El Niño could develop June – August 2009

UPDATE:

NOAA scientists today [July 9, 2009] announced the arrival of El Niño, a climate phenomenon with a significant influence on global weather, ocean conditions and marine fisheries. El Niño, the periodic warming of central and eastern tropical Pacific waters, occurs on average every two to five years and typically lasts about 12 months. See NOAA Press Release

The El Niño weather pattern can cause global weather chaos by exacerbating droughts and floods.

Conditions are favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions during June – August 2009, US Climate Prediction Center says.

During El Nino, rainfall and thunderstorm activity diminishes over the western equatorial Pacific, and increases over the eastern half of the tropical Pacific. This area of increased rainfall occurs where the exceptionally warm ocean waters have reached about 28°C or 82°F. This overall pattern of rainfall departures spans nearly one-half the distance around the globe, and is responsible for many of the global weather impacts caused by El Niño.

El Niño occurs when the eastern Pacific temperatures rise above average, and the forecast says conditions are now favorable for a switch from ENSO-neutarl to El Niño conditions between June and  August 2009. The forecast warns that by end May 2009 sea surface temperatures (SST) had increased for the fifth consecutive month, rising to “above-average” in the  equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The 1997-98 El Niño/Southern Oscillation was one of the most severe ENSO events in history. It caused widespread drought in Australia and Indonesia and floods in S. America, especially Ecuador and Peru.

FEWW Moderators estimate that a new episode of El Niño, which would have devastating impact globally, could cause up to $500 billion in damages.

Graphical depiction of the four Niño regions. [Source: NOAA/  National Weather Service National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Prediction Center]

The report is available at EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

For regular updates see comments section below.

Related Links:

• El Niño