Sudden Surges in Atmospheric CO2: FIRE-EARTH Forecast

Just when you thought it couldn’t possibly get much …

FIRE-EARTH Models show unprecedented surges in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations starting 2014. The massive increases could be as much as 10 – 15 times any rises ever recorded.

To minimize abuse of this forecast by the usual culprits and dozens of newcomers, FIRE-EARTH won’t release further details at this time.

The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites. The Global Monitoring Division of NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory has measured carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases for several decades at a globally distributed network of air sampling sites [Conway, 1994]. A global average is constructed by first fitting a smoothed curve as a function of time to each site, and then the smoothed value for each site is plotted as a function of latitude for 48 equal time steps per year. A global average is calculated from the latitude plot at each time step [Masarie, 1995]. Go here for more details on how global means are calculated.  Click for a comparison with recent trends in carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, which has the longest continuous record of direct atmospheric CO₂ measurements. Image and caption: ESRL/NOAA

Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN)

Diagram shows the exponential growth of Human Impact on Nature (HION) between 1960  and July 2013. Source: FIRE-EARTH Real-Time Earth Models. Copyright: FIRE-EARTH Blog Authors.

Related Links

• Weekly Average CO2 at Mauna Loa Tops 400ppm
• CO2 Tops 400ppm at Mauna Loa as Forecast
• 400 PPM

• Critical Overload Threatens Planetary Life Support Systems
• RAPID CHANGE IN PROGRESS!

CO2 Tops 400ppm at Mauna Loa as Forecast

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Crosses 400PPM Milestone at Hawaii Observatory

On April 3, FIRE-EARTH forecast that the weekly average atmospheric CO₂ at Mauna Loa could hit 400ppm by May 2013.

Last 5 days of daily average CO₂

May 09 – 400.03  |  May 08 – 399.42  |  May 07 – 399.59  |  May 06 – 399.43 |  May 05 – 399.47  |

This is the first time the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in Hawaii tops 400ppm since measurement began in 1958, according to ESRL data.

The rise to 400ppm level of the atmospheric carbon dioxide represents yet another appalling milestone in the brief history of the homo ignarus.

The last time Earth’s atmosphere contained this much carbon dioxide was probably as many as 5 million years ago.

CO2 Daily and Weekly Means at Mauna Loa.  The weekly mean (red bar) is simply the average of all days in the week for which a background value could be defined. The average standard deviation of day to day variability, calculated as the difference from the appropriate weekly mean, equals 0.38 ppm for the entire record. As a visual aid, the blue lines present monthly means of background data as they are presented under Recent Monthly CO₂ at Mauna Loa. [Source: ESRL/NOAA]

Up-to-date weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa

• Week of April 28, 2013: 399.58 ppm
• Weekly value from 1 year ago: 396.81 ppm
• Weekly value from 10 years ago: 378.50 ppm

Recent Global CO2

• February 2013: 395.98 ppm
• February 2012: 393.05 ppm

Recent Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO2

• March 2013: 397.34 ppm
• March 2012: 394.45 ppm

Related Links

• 400 PPM April 3, 2013

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID PLANETARY DECLINE IN PROGRESS!

• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs

Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Update

Weekly average CO₂ at Mauna Loa Observatory 

• Week of April 21, 2013:     398.68 ppm
• Weekly value from 1 year ago:     396.66 ppm
• Weekly value from 10 years ago:     378.46 ppm

One Year of  CO_{2 d}aily and weekly means at Mauna Loa

The graph, updated weekly, shows as individual points daily mean CO₂ up to and including the week (Sunday through Saturday) previous to today. The daily means are based on hours during which CO₂ was likely representative of “background” conditions, defined as times when the measurement is representative of air at mid-altitudes over the Pacific Ocean. That air has had several days time or more to mix, smoothing out most of the CO₂ variability encountered elsewhere, making the measurements representative of CO₂ over hundreds of km or more. The selection process is designed to filter out any influence of nearby emissions, or removals, of CO₂ such as caused by the vegetation on the island of Hawaii, and likewise emissions from the volcanic crater of Mauna Loa.  Source: ESRL/NOAA

Recent Mauna Loa CO₂

• March 2013:     397.34 ppm
• March 2012:     394.45 ppm

Recent Global CO₂

• February 2013:     395.98 ppm
• February 2012:     393.05 ppm

Related Links

• 400 PPM  posted April 3, 2013

400 PPM

Weekly average CO₂ at Mauna Loa could hit 400ppm by May 2013: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH projections show, based on the data provided by Mauna Loa Observatory, the average CO2 at Mauna Loa could climb to 400ppm in the next 6 weeks.

Up-to-date weekly average CO₂ at Mauna Loa

• Week of March 24, 2013:     397.92 ppm
• Weekly value from 1 year ago:     395.30 ppm
• Weekly value from 10 years ago:     377.06 ppm

CO2 Daily and Weekly Means at Mauna Loa [April 2012 – March 2013.]  The weekly mean (red bar) is simply the average of all days in the week for which a background value could be defined. The average standard deviation of day to day variability, calculated as the difference from the appropriate weekly mean, equals 0.38 ppm for the entire record. As a visual aid, the blue lines present monthly means of background data as they are presented under Recent Monthly CO₂ at Mauna Loa. [Source: ESRL/NOAA]  

Recent Mauna Loa CO₂

• February 2013:     396.80 ppm
• February 2012:     393.54 ppm

The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. [Source:  ESRL/NOAA]

Monthly mean atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii [Source:  ESRL/NOAA]

Recent Global CO₂

• January 2013:     395.09 ppm
• January 2012:     392.44 ppm

The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites. [Images sourced from ESRL/NOAA]

Historic

Time history of atmospheric carbon dioxide from 800,000 years ago until January, 2012.

Global average abundances of the major, well-mixed, long-lived greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFC-12 and CFC-11 – from the NOAA global air sampling network are plotted since the beginning of 1979. These gases account for about 96% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750. The remaining 4% is contributed by an assortment of 15 minor halogenated gases (see text). Methane data before 1983 are annual averages from Etheridge et al. (1998), adjusted to the NOAA calibration scale [Dlugokencky et al., 2005].  Source: ESRL/NOAA.  Click on image to view larger image. Click HERE for full size figure .