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Posts Tagged ‘Lupit’

Drought and Deluge: Major Mechanisms Of Collapse

Posted by feww on December 5, 2009

Of the Visible Mechanisms of Collapse Drought and Deluge Are Among Leaders

For most everyone it would be difficult to imagine dealing with about 2,800 mm of rainfall in 6 months; however, many Filipinos experienced such catastrophic deluge caused by 12 storm between May and November 2009.

It’s not known whether the Island of Luzon would ever recover from the 2009 tropical cyclones, or how much worse the next few seasons could get.

The consensus among our colleagues at EDRO is that the mechanisms of collapse will intensify globally.

Brief History of 2009 Tropical Cyclones that affected The Philippines

  • May 2 and 3, 2009. Tropical Storm Kujira brought torrential rains which triggered floods in  southern Luzon (northeast and central Philippines).
  • May 7. Typhoon Chan-hom (“Emong”) struck the northwest coast of Luzon with more heavy rains and yet more flooding.
  • June 12 – 22 and June 23 – 25. Typhoon Linfa and Tropical Storm Nangka [“Feria”] passed over the Philippines triggering more heavy rains, floods, and landslides. Many tornadoes worsened the impact of Nangka.
  • July 10 – 11. Tropical Storm Soudelor [“Gorio”] reduced to a tropical depression, Soudelor moved close to northern Luzon, producing more than 330 mm of rainfall which triggered flash floods and landslides in a dozen villages.
  • July 16 – 18. Typhoon Molave [“Isang”] passed close to northern Philippines causing yet more flooding in the region.
  • August 1. Tropical Storm Goni (Jolina) affected about 120,000 people, with a dozen dead or missing in 120 villages, 25 towns and 5 cities.
  • August 3 – 11. Typhoon Morakot [“Kiko”] left ten villages in the Philippines,submerged in up to 2-meters of  floodwater after the Pinatubo Dike overflowed. Morakot dumped over 2,500 mm of rain over parts of Taiwan.
  • September 9, 2009 Tropical Storm Mujigae [“Maring”] was lurking around in Soth China Sea near western Luzon causing more rainfall.
  • September 11 – 13. Typhoon Koppu [“Nando”] caused a 48 hour downpour over parts of Luzon and a   24 hour rainfall over Visayas and Mindanao,as it enhanced the impact of the southwest monsoon.
  • September 26. Typhoon Ketsana [“Ondoy”] triggered Manila’s worst flooding in living memory.
  • October 1. Typhoon Parma followed quickly after, churning Manila to Vanilla.
  • Late October 2009. Typhoons Lupit and Mirinae left trails of destructioon in theier wakes.

Rainfall from Philippine Typhoons – NASA EO


This image illustrates the rainfall in the Philippines from 12 named storms between May and October in 2009. Two storms, Ketsana and Parma, brought unusually heavy flood-inducing rain within a two-week span at the end of September and early October. Image includes only the rain when each of the 12 storms were active. The heaviest rainfall, in excess of 2000 millimeters (80 inches), is shown in dark blue.

The data for the image came from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis, which calibrates rainfall estimates from many satellites using rainfall measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen. Caption by Holli Riebeek. Acquired May 2, 2009 – November 2, 2009. Released December 5, 2009 [Edited by FEWW]


Posted in Climate Change, extreme climatic events, extreme rain, tropical cyclones, world's collapsing cities | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

UPDATE: Typhoon LUPIT Arrives

Posted by feww on October 22, 2009

Typhoon LUPIT: 22 October 2009

Synopsis

  • Position: At 4:00 am (local time) Typhoon LUPIT (locally known as “RAMIL”) was located 350 km East Northeast of Aparri, Cagayan.
  • Coordinates: 19.0°N, 125.3°E
  • Maximum sustained winds: 160 km/h
  • Max Wind gusts:  195 km/h
  • Movement: It is forecast to move in West-Southwesterly direction (240 degrees) at 11 km/h (6 kt)

LUPIT MTSAT IR1 0030-22-10-09 cntr
Typhoon Lupit – DOST-PAGASA MTSAT-EIR Satellite Image for 8 am local time (00:30 UTC)  22 Oct. 2009. Still image. Click image to enlarge and update.

LUPIT- RAMIL - track 22-10-09

LUPIT Track by Philippines Dost-Pagasa.

Forecast Positions/Outlook (PAGASA):

  • Friday morning:  250 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
  • Saturday morning: 180 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
  • Sunday morning: 110 km East of Aparri, Cagayan

PAGASA Forecast

  • Northern Luzon will have stormy weather while Central Luzon will experience rains and occasional gusty winds with moderate to rough seas. The rest of Luzon will have mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms while Visayas and Mindanao will be partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated rainshowers or thunderstorms.
  • Moderate to strong winds blowing from the Northwest to Southwest will prevail over Visayas and the rest of Luzon and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough. Elsewhere, winds will be light to moderate coming from the West to Southwest with slight to moderate seas except during thunderstorms.

Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon “RAMIL” (LUPIT)
Issued at 5:00 a.m., Thursday, 22 October 2009

  • Signal No. 3  (100-185 kph winds)
    • Batanes Group
    • Cagayan
    • Calayan Island
    • Babuyan Islands
    • Apayao
    • Kalinga
    • Isabela
  • Signal No.  2 (60-100 kph winds)
    • Ilocos Norte
    • Ilocos Sur
    • Abra
    • Mt. Province
    • Ifugao
    • Benguet
    • La Union
    • Nueva Vizcaya
    • Quirino
    • Aurora
  • Signal No. 1 (30-60 kph winds)
    • Pangasinan
    • Tarlac
    • Nueva Ecija
    • Zambales
    • Pampanga
    • Bulacan
    • Northern Quezon
    • Polillo Islands

Gale Warning: Issued by PAGASA at: 5:00 a.m., Today, 22 October 2009

  • Strong to gale force winds is expected to affect the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon and the Western seaboard of Luzon.
  • Conditions are forecast as “rough” to “very rough” with waves of up to 5-meter high.
  • Areas affected:
    • THE EASTERN SEABOARDS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LUZON
    • WESTERN SEABOARD OF NORTHERN LUZON

Recent History

Typhoon LUPIT: Cruel, Harsh, or Wicked?

Typhoon LUPIT – 21 Oct 2009

  • How long will LUPIT loiter around Luzon

  • How much more rain will it dump?

  • Will LUPIT move away and come back, AGAIN!

At 00:00 UTC – Oct 21, 2009
Max Winds:   160km/h
(85 knots)  Category: 2
Max Gusts:  195 km/h
(105knots)
Coordinates:
20.5ºN 128.9ºE
Movement past six hours:
280 degrees at 15 km/h (08 kts)
Location: About 925 km (500 kts) NE of Manila Philippines

Summary of Storm Activity

Lupit is tracking westward steered by a subtropical ridge extension to the north. Deep convection has become more organized near the storm center over the past six hours, JTWC reported.

LUPIT - 21 -10 - 09
Typhoon LUPIT – MTSAT Still image.

track - unisys
LUPIT Track by UniSys Weather.  Click image to enlarge and update.

History Color Code – The chart color codes intensity (category based on Saffir-Simpson scale)
wind force table - SSS
NOTE: Pressures are in millibars and winds are in knots where one knot is equal to 1.15 mph. Source: UniSys Weather

LUPIT -  JTWC 5-day track
LUPIT 5-day track. Source JTWC. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon LUPIT – 20 Oct 2009

22W_200530sams Large
Typhoon LUPIT (22W): JTWC/SATOP multispectral satellite image. October 20, 2009 at 05:00 UTC. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon LUPIT – 20 October 2009, at 09:00UTC

Position: 20.4ºN, 129.3ºE
Location: Approximately 1,110 km (600 NM) northeast of Manila, Philippines.
Movement:  WNW at about 15km/h (8 knots)
Center: LUPIT’s Eye has once again become visible
System Characteristics: LUPIT has good radial out flow
Maximum significant wave height:  ~ 11 meters (34 feet)
Max sustained winds: 175km/h (95 knots)
Max gusts: 215 km/h (115 knots)

Super Typhoon Lupit
Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.


MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Background and More images:


LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

Other Satellite Images:

Related Links:

Posted in Apayao, Babuyan Islands, Batanes Group, Cagayan, Calayan Island, Isabela, Kalinga, LUPIT warning | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm

Posted by feww on October 19, 2009

Listening to the Planet’s Pulse

Weather models provide useful information, but they can’t project the larger picture

Storms and other natural phenomena serve to rejuvenate and ensure streams of life flow unimpeded. If you find their impact devastating, it’s because you are looking at the wrong roadmap.

Super Typhoon Lupit
Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.


MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Background and More images:

Summary of Lupit Latest Data  (October 19 at (03:00 UTC)

  • Intensity: Super Typhoon (Very Strong)
  • Center position:  18.7° N, E 133.8°E
  • Direction and speed: N (340 degrees) at 9km/h (5kt)
  • Central pressure: 930hPa
  • Maximum sustained winds:  250 km/h, or70m/s (135kt)
  • Max. wind gusts:  307km/h (165kt)
  • Area of 50kt or greater winds:   200km wide (110NM)
  • Area of 30kt or greater winds:   440km wide (240NM)
  • Source(s): JMA; JTWC
  • Significant wave height: 11 m (32 feet)

Super Typhoon LUPIT (22W) is currently located about 1455 km (785 nm) ENE of Manila, Philippines, having moved north-northwestward at a forward speed of about 9 km/h (05 knots) during the previous six hours. LUPIT is turning back towards the west because a mid-latitude trough has left the region and the subtropical ridge is beginning to build in. LUPIT may be unable to retain super typhoon intensity and could slightly weaken before moving closer to  northern Luzon, JTWC reported.

lupit - jma oct 19 - 0000utc
LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!

wp22 - JTWC
Super Typhoon LUPIT Projected Track
. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.
Click image to enlarge!

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

Other Satellite Images:

Related Links:

Posted in Dagupan city, deluge in Dagupan, Ketsana, landslides, Luzon, luzon flooding, luzon landslides, Malnutrition, Manila Collapsing, Pepeng, Philippines, philippines floods, Philippines rain, probability of Manila collapsing, Typhoon Melor, Typhoon Parma, Typhoons, Visayas | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »