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Posts Tagged ‘major hurricane’

Rick Strengthens to a Major Hurricane

Posted by feww on October 17, 2009

For UPDATES see links in comments section

Rick Strengthened to an Extremely Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane

At 10:15 UTC the center of hurricane Rick was near latitude 14.0°N, longitude 102.3°W,  or about

  • 40 km southwest of Acapulco, Mexico
  • 595 km south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico

rb-l  - Hurricane Rick
Rick is Now a Cat 4A Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale ( Cat. four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale). GOES Satellite Image. Rainbow Enhancement – Still Frame. Date and time as inset. Click image to enlarge and update.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

Coastal Watches- Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone
Rick’s 5-day Track Forecast. Click Image to enlarge and update.

Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours
Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities - 120 Hours
Hurricane Rick Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

Direction and Speed

  • Rick is moving in a west-northwesterly direction at 19 km/hr
  • Expected to stay on its forecast track for the next 48 hours
  • Will remain off-shore, moving parallel to the southern coast of Mexico

Wind Speed

  • Maximum sustained winds: 215


Rick is now an extremely dangerous category 4A on FEWW New Hurricane Scale ( Cat. four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

Further Strengthening Forecast:

  • Rick will Most probably strengthen to a category five hurricane in the next 12 – 36 hours.

Wind Forces and Pressure

  • Hurricane force winds: Extend 55 km
  • Tropical storm force winds: Extend 165 km from the center
  • Minimum central pressure: 71.09mm Hg (948 mb).

Rain Potential

  • Rick’s outer rainbands will continue to affect the Southern coast of Mexico, NHC said.

FEWW Comment:

Rick enlarged image
Hurricane Rick looks organized, symmetrical and extremely dangerous. Warm coastal waters off the Mexican coast will most likely help Rick to become a Category 5 hurricane. Rick could devastate Baja and coastal areas of western Mexico.

As Typhoon LUPIT (currently located near Philippines) and Hurricane Rick grow stronger,  the question on many people’s mind must now be whether the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season will end with  a whimper, or the “mother of all hurricanes” could still form there …

Other Satellite Images

GOES Satellite: East Pacific Hurricane Rick(EP20)

Additional Images:

Posted in GOES Satellite images, hurricane force winds, hurricane trajectory, Rick 5-Day Track Forecast Cone, rick forecast path, Rick forecast track, rick projected course, satellite imagery, Tropical Storm Force winds, Wind Speed | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

Posted by feww on September 10, 2008

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

2009: A New Climate

What if each time a storm struck your area it turned out to be a major hurricane?

Based on MSRB/CASF dynamic energy models and FEWW climate model there’s a high probability that:

1. The duration of Atlantic Hurricane season may be longer in 2009. It could start earlier than June 1, and end later than November 30. The FEWW model forecasts an 11-18 day increase in the season.

2. The storms could get stronger throughout the season. Our model indicates average increases in the maximum wind speeds of tropical storms as follows

  • Category 5 hurricanes [Saffir-Simpson scale] : 16 to 19 percent increase
  • Category 4 hurricanes : 14 to 17 percent
  • Category 3 hurricanes : 8 to 11 percent
  • Category 2 hurricanes : 4 to 6 percent
  • Category 1 hurricanes : 2 to 4 percent

Now, back to Ike

Latest Headlines:

  • More than 1 million are evacuated but there are four deaths as 20 inches of rain and 100-mph winds pound Cuba. Reports mount of earlier deaths and destruction in Haiti. Texas could be next. (LA Times)
  • Oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remained at a trickle on Tuesday as Hurricane Ike moved toward the region, triggering the second storm-related wave of offshore platform evacuations and production shutdowns in less than two weeks. (Reuters).
  • Some two million Cubans had been driven from their homes by the storm’s winds topping 130 km/h (80 mph) more than 24 hours after it first made landfall on Sunday. (AFP)
  • Ike earlier caused 66 deaths in Haiti and reportedly damaged 80% of the homes in the Turks and Caicos Islands. (BBC)

NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) Forecast Positions. Credit: CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering CenterUniversity of Wisconsin- Madison:


  • Source: NHC
  • Forecaster: Franklin
  • Date and Time: Sept 9, 2008 at 12:00UTC
  • Location: At 12:00UTC the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 22.4 north, longitude 82.4 west, or about 65 Km south of Havana, Cuba.
  • Category and Wind Speed: At 130 km/hr, Ike is a Category one hurricane  on FEWW Hurricane Scale.  Some strengthening may occur this morning before Ike moves over Western Cuba.  Additional strengthening is forecast to occur once Ike reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Direction: Ike is moving toward the west-northwest at 20 km/hr and  is expected to continue in that direction in the next 48 hrs.  The center of Ike should reach the south coast of western Cuba in the next few hours, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico by this evening.
  • Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 355 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 km. 
  • Estimated minimum central pressure: 965mb (28.50 inches).
  • Storm surge flooding: Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected in areas of onshore winds east of Ike along the southern coast of  Cuba.
  • Storm surge flooding of up to 90cm, along with Large and dangerous waves, are possible in the Florida Keys.
  • Large swells generated by Ike will continue to affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next couple of days. These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip
  • Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 25cm over Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 50cm possible. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash
    floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10cm are possible over the Cayman Islands. Rainfall accumulations of 2.5 to 8cm are possible over the Florida Keys.
  • Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible over the Florida Keys and extreme south Florida today.

Posted in Climate Change, energy, environment, food, Global Warming, health, politics, Tourism, Travel | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »