Typhoon LUPIT: Cruel, Harsh, or Wicked?

Typhoon LUPIT – 21 Oct 2009

• How long will LUPIT loiter around Luzon

• How much more rain will it dump?

• Will LUPIT move away and come back, AGAIN!
  

At 00:00 UTC – Oct 21, 2009
Max Winds:   160km/h (85 knots)  Category: 2
Max Gusts:  195 km/h (105knots)
Coordinates: 20.5ºN 128.9ºE
Movement past six hours: 280 degrees at 15 km/h (08 kts)
Location: About 925 km (500 kts) NE of Manila Philippines

Summary of Storm Activity

Lupit is tracking westward steered by a subtropical ridge extension to the north. Deep convection has become more organized near the storm center over the past six hours, JTWC reported.

Typhoon LUPIT – MTSAT Still image.

LUPIT Track by UniSys Weather.  Click image to enlarge and update.

History Color Code – The chart color codes intensity (category based on Saffir-Simpson scale)

NOTE: Pressures are in millibars and winds are in knots where one knot is equal to 1.15 mph. Source: UniSys Weather

LUPIT 5-day track. Source JTWC. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon LUPIT – 20 Oct 2009

Typhoon LUPIT (22W): JTWC/SATOP multispectral satellite image. October 20, 2009 at 05:00 UTC. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon LUPIT – 20 October 2009, at 09:00UTC

Position: 20.4ºN, 129.3ºE
Location: Approximately 1,110 km (600 NM) northeast of Manila, Philippines.
Movement:  WNW at about 15km/h (8 knots)
Center: LUPIT’s Eye has once again become visible
System Characteristics: LUPIT has good radial out flow
Maximum significant wave height:  ~ 11 meters (34 feet)
Max sustained winds: 175km/h (95 knots)
Max gusts: 215 km/h (115 knots)

Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.

MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Background and More images:

• Typhoon LUPIT: Cruel, Harsh, or Wicked?
• Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009
• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!

• LUPIT 3-day projected track.

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR
• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible

• Northwest Pacific – Water Vapor
• Northwest Pacific – Visible
• Northwest Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Pacific – Infrared
• Northwest Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• West Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Pacific – Visible
• West Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Pacific – Infrared
• West Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Other Satellite Images:

• FEWW Satellite Imagery

Related Links:

• Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm
• Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009
• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

• Parma Hampers Recovery Efforts in Vietnam
• Philippines Still Flooded
• Philippines Terminally Impacted?

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009

LUPIT has intensified to typhoon strength moving toward central and northern Luzon, Philippines

Previous Entry:

• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

Typhoon Data Summary

At 2:00 AM local time, Saturday October 17, typhoon LUPIT [locally known as “RAMIL”] was located about 850 km east of VIRAC, CATANDUANES (14.6°N; 133.2°E) with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h and gusts of up to 150 km/h moving WNW at about 20/km/h, Philippines PAGASA reported.

FEWW Forecast:

Moderators believe LUPIT has the potential of becoming the most destructive typhoon yet to strike Philippines in 2009.

FEWW Previous Forecast

• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR
• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible

• Northwest Pacific – Water Vapor
• Northwest Pacific – Visible
• Northwest Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Pacific – Infrared
• Northwest Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• West Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Pacific – Visible
• West Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Pacific – Infrared
• West Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Other Satellite Images:

• FEWW Satellite Imagery

MTSAT – RGB Still Image. Time/Date as inset. Click image to  enlarge and update.

MTSAT – AVN Enhancement – Still Image. Time/Date as inset. Click image to  enlarge and update.

Cyclone LUPIT Projected track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.

Related Links:

• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

• Parma Hampers Recovery Efforts in Vietnam
• Philippines Still Flooded
• Philippines Terminally Impacted?

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

“Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons

Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila : Update #1

On Thursday, October 1, 2009 at about 08:00 UTC, Parma became a  super typhoon. It’s expected to gain more strength before landfall.

Will it or won’t it?

It’s academic whether Parma will directly strike Manila. More rain for a city already buried in chest-high floodwater is just as deadly.

Could Manila Collapse?

Could Manila collapse as a result of devastation caused by the combined impact of the storms Ketsana, Parma (and  Melor, next week), as well as possible earthquakes triggered by landslides and massive mud avalanches, AND a highly probable catastrophic eruption of TAAL VOLCANO?

One way to find out is to wait and see! Another, is to stay tuned to FEWW forecasts and comments posted on this blog.

See also: The First Wave of Collapsing Cities

Super Typhoon Parma (see inset for date and time) – MTSAT/NPMOC/JTWC – Click on image to enlarge and view latest update.

Typhoon Parma – October 1, 2009

As the death toll from Tropical Storm Ketsana continued to climb, residents of the Philippines braced for Typhoon Parma, which continued its westward path across the Pacific Ocean on October 1, 2009. The same day, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image. Coastlines of the Philippines appear in black, and storm clouds hide the satellite’s view of most of the land areas. Clouds actually fill most of this image, with the eye of the storm appearing in the right half of the picture and long arms extending westward over land.  NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, Goddard Space Flight Center. [Original caption edited by FEWW]

Typhoon Parma – September 30, 2009

Tropical Storm [Now Super Typhoon] Parma headed westward over the Pacific Ocean, en route to the northern Philippines on September 30, 2009. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this true-color image the same day. NASA image created by Jesse Allen, using data provided courtesy of the MODIS Rapid Response team. Caption by Michon Scott. [Edited by FEWW]

Latest Details (as of posting)

• Position:  near 12.7N 129.1 E.
• Location: Approximately 520 NM East-Southeast of Manila, Philippines  AST-
• Moving WNW at a forward speed of about 16 knots
• Intensity: Super Typhoon; expected to further intensify before landfall probably on NE coast of Luzon

Super typhoon Parma is already affecting the country

A Main Street in suburban Cainta, east of Manila, flooded chest-deep.  Sunday, September 27, 2009.  Mike Alquinto / AP Photo. Image may be subject to copyright.

What will the people do?

• Forced evacuations in northern provinces may occur, ahead of the Parma’s landfall.
• Parma would bring more torrential rains causing a second wave of chaos  across  Manila and nearby provinces by impeding what little relief efforts some 2.5 million people are receiving after their lives were turned upside-down by TS Katsana.
• More people are bound to perish from the impact of Parma.
• So far 277 people have been confirmed killed in the wake of Ketsana, with 42 still missing. The numbers would rise further.
• Up to 700,000 people who lost their homes to landslides and mud avalanches in Manila and nearby provinces are currently staying in makeshift evacuation centers. The psychological and physical impacts of living in cramped condition for prolonged periods of time would be devastating, especially among children.

Satellite animation of Typhoons Parma and Melor in the Pacific Ocean

Related Links:

• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana
• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory

• Bill Becomes Hurricane, Strengthening