Atmospheric CO2 Levels Rose at Record Rate in 2016 –WMO

WMO GREENHOUSE GAS BULLETIN (No. 13) 30 Oct. 2017

‘The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2016’

Excerpts from Report’s Executive Summary:

Analysis of observations from the WMO GAW Program shows that globally averaged surface mole fractions calculated for CO₂ , methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) reached new highs in 2016, with

• CO₂ at 403.3 ± 0.1 pp [or 145% pre-industrial – before 1750 – levels.]
• CH₄ at 1 853 ± 2 ppb [257%]
• N₂O at 328.9 ± 0.1 ppb [122%]

The record increase of 3.3 ppm in CO₂ from 2015 to 2016 was larger than the previous record increase, observed from 2012 to 2013, and the average growth rate over the last decade. The increase of CH₄ from 2015 to 2016 was slightly smaller than that observed from 2014 to 2015, but larger than the average over the last decade. The increase of N₂O from 2015 to 2016 was also slightly smaller than that observed from 2014 to 2015 and the average growth rate over the past 10 years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) shows that from 1990 to 2016, radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) increased by 40%, with CO₂ accounting for about 80% of this increase. The WMO GAW Program (http://www.wmo.int/gaw)

Up-to-date weekly average CO₂at Mauna Loa, Hawaii
Week beginning on October 22, 2017: 404.01 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 401.83 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 381.44 ppm
Last updated: October 30, 2017

Full CO₂ record at Mauna Loa

• Analysis and additional information available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

“Every breath you take and every move you make… “

“Every breath you take and every move you make; every bond you break, every step you take, I’ll be watching you”

CO2 levels reach new global monthly record of 400ppm

Yet another greenhouse gas benchmark has been reached globally.

Global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have reached a new monthly record of 400 parts per million (ppm), the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced.

“We first reported 400 ppm when all of our Arctic sites reached that value in the spring of 2012. In 2013 the record at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory first crossed the 400 ppm threshold. Reaching 400 parts per million as a global average is a significant milestone,” said the lead scientist of NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network.

CO2 has risen about 120 parts per million since preindustrial times, with about 50 percent of the increase occurring since 1980.

On April 3, FIRE-EARTH forecast that the weekly average atmospheric CO₂ at Mauna Loa could hit 400ppm by May 2013.

Last 5 days of preliminary daily average CO₂

May 06 – 404.34
May 05 – 404.13
May 04 – Unavailable
May 03 – 403.63
May 02 – 403.59

Up-to-date weekly average CO₂ at Mauna Loa

Week beginning on April 26, 2015:     403.78 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     401.73 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     382.52 ppm
Last updated: May 7, 2015

Recent Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO₂

April 2015:     403.26 ppm
April 2014:     401.29 ppm
Last updated: May 5, 2015

Recent Global CO₂

March 2015:     400.83 ppm
March 2014:     398.10 ppm
Last updated: May 5, 2015

Related Links

• Weekly Average CO2 at Mauna Loa Tops 400ppm June 4, 2013
• CO2 Tops 400ppm at Mauna Loa as Forecast May 11, 2013
• 400 PPM April 3, 2013

GHG Concentrations Climbed to New Highs in 2012: WMO

Atmospheric greenhouse gases reached new record levels

Atmospheric concentrations of major greenhouse gases responsible for climate change climbed to new records in 2012, according to WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (No. 9: November 2013) released by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

Levels of CO₂, the primary greenhouse gas produced by human activities, grew by 2.2 ppm, higher the average of 2.02 ppm over the past decade. At 393.1 parts per million (ppm), the 2012 CO₂ concentrations were 41 percent above the pre-industrial level.

The latest analysis of observations from the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme shows that the globally averaged mole fractions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) reached new highs in 2012, with CO₂ at 393.1±0.1 ppm, CH₄ at 1819±1 ppb and N₂O at 325.1±0.1 ppb. These values constitute, respectively, 141%, 260% and 120% of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels. The atmospheric increase of CO₂ from 2011 to 2012 is higher than the average growth rate over the past 10 years. For N₂O the increase from 2011 to 2012 is smaller than the one observed from 2010 to 2011 but larger than the average growth rate over the past 10 years. Atmospheric CH₄ continued to increase at a rate similar to the one observed over the past 4 years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Annual Greenhouse Gas Index shows that from 1990 to 2012 radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases increased by 32%, with CO₂ accounting for about 80% of this increase.

This ninth WMO/GAW Annual GHG Bulletin reports atmospheric abundances and rates of change of the most
important long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) – carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide – and provides a summary of the contributions of the other gases. These three together with CFC-12 and CFC-11 account for approximately 96% of radiative forcing due to LLGHGs.

The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) in 2012 was 1.32, representing a 32% increase in total radiative forcing (relative to 1750) by all LLGHGs since 1990 and a 1.2% increase from 2011 to 2012 (Figure 1). The total radiative forcing by all LLGHGs in 2012 corresponds to a CO₂-equivalent mole fraction of 475.6 ppm (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi).

 Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the single most important anthropogenic GHG in the atmosphere

Carbon dioxide is the single most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, contributing ~64%  to radiative forcing by LLGHGs. It is responsible for ~84% of the increase in radiative forcing over the past decade and ~82% over the past five years. The pre-industrial level of ~278 ppm represented a balance of fluxes between the atmosphere, the oceans and the biosphere. Atmospheric CO₂ reached 141% of the pre-industrial level in 2012, primarily because of emissions from combustion of fossil fuels (fossil fuel CO₂ emissions 9.5±0.5 PgC in 2011, according to http://www.globalcarbonproject.org), deforestation and other land-use change (0.9±0.5 PgC in 2011). The average increase in atmospheric CO₂ from pre-industrial time corresponds to ~55% of the CO₂ emitted by fossil fuel combustion with the remaining ~45% removed by the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere.

CO₂ Global Average

The globally averaged CO2 mole fraction in 2012 was 393.1±0.1 ppm. The mean annual increase from 2011 to 2012, 2.2 ppm, is greater than the increase from 2010 to 2011, the average growth rate for the 1990s (~1.5 ppm/yr) and the average growth rate for the past decade (~2.0 ppm/yr).

Global average abundances of the major, well-mixed, long-lived greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFC-12 and CFC-11 – from the NOAA global air sampling network are plotted since the beginning of 1979. These gases account for about 96% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750. The remaining 4% is contributed by an assortment of 15 minor halogenated gases including HCFC-22 and HFC-134a. Source: ESRL/NOAA

Methane (CH4) – THe Second Major Contributor

Methane contributes ~18% to radiative forcing by LLGHGs. Approximately 40% of methane is emitted into the atmosphere by natural sources (e.g., wetlands and termites), and about 60% comes from anthropogenic sources (e.g., ruminants, rice agriculture, fossil fuel exploitation, landfills and biomass burning). Atmospheric CH₄ reached 260% of the pre-industrial level (~700 ppb) due to increased emissions from anthropogenic sources. Globally averaged CH₄ reached a new high of 1819 ± 1 ppb in 2012, an increase of 6 ppb with respect to the previous year (Figure 4). The growth rate of CH₄ decreased from ~13 ppb/yr during the early 1980s to near zero during 1999-2006. Since 2007, atmospheric CH₄ has been increasing again due to increased emissions in the tropical and mid-latitude
Northern Hemisphere. The attribution of this increase to anthropogenic and natural sources is difficult because the current network is insufficient to characterize emissions by region and source process.

Nitrous oxide (N₂O )

Nitrous oxide contributes ~6% to radiative forcing by LLGHGs. It is the third most important contributor to the combined forcing. N₂O is emitted into the atmosphere from both natural (about 60%) and anthropogenic sources (approximately 40%), including oceans, soil, biomass burning, fertilizer use, and various industrial processes. The globally averaged N₂O mole fraction in 2012 reached 325.1 ±0.1 ppb, which is 0.9 ppb above the previous year and 120% of the pre-industrial level (270 ppb). The annual increase from 2011 to 2012 is greater than the mean growth rate over the past 10 years (0.80 ppb/yr).

Radiative forcing, relative to 1750, of all the long-lived greenhouse gases. The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), which is indexed to 1 for the year 1990, is shown on the right axis.  Of the five long-lived greenhouse gases that contribute 96% to radiative climate forcing, CO₂ and N₂O are the only ones that continue to increase at a regular rate. Radiative forcing from CH₄ increased from 2007 to 2012 after remaining nearly constant from 1999 to 2006. While the radiative forcing of the long-lived, well-mixed greenhouse gases increased 32% from 1990 to 2012 (by ~0.69 watts m^-2), CO₂ has accounted for nearly 80% of this increase (~0.55 watts m^-2). Source: ESRL/NOAA

Recent Global CO₂

• August 2013:     393.11 ppm
• August 2012:     389.82 ppm

Up-to-date weekly average CO₂ at Mauna Loa

• Week beginning on October 27, 2013:     394.20 ppm
• Weekly value from 1 year ago:     391.32 ppm
• Weekly value from 10 years ago:     373.39 ppm

Related Links

• Weekly Average CO2 at Mauna Loa Tops 400ppm June 4, 2013
• CO2 Tops 400ppm at Mauna Loa as Forecast May 11, 2013
• Sudden Surges in Atmospheric CO2: FIRE-EARTH Forecast July 23, 2013
• 400 PPM April 3, 2013

Weekly Average CO2 at Mauna Loa Tops 400ppm

Accelerating Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Up-to-date weekly average CO₂ at Mauna Loa

• Week beginning on May 26, 2013:     400.03 ppm
• Weekly value from 1 year ago:     396.43 ppm
• Weekly value from 10 years ago:     378.57 ppm

Recent Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO₂

• April 2013:     398.40 ppm
• April 2012:     396.18 ppm

Recent Global CO₂

• March 2013:     396.52 ppm
• March 2012:     393.57 ppm

Related Links

• CO2 Tops 400ppm at Mauna Loa as Forecast May 11, 2013
• 400 PPM April 3, 2013

 

133,000,000 Wise Monkeys

submitted by a reader

They See NO CO2, Smell NO CO2 and Believe NO CO2

Nearly half of Americans think climate change concerns are overstated and over a third doubt the environmental consequence—Gallop

The original Three Wise Monkeys hear, speak, see no evil. Wood carving at Toshogu, Nikko, Tochigi Prefecture, Japan. Source: Wikimedia.

As the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere reaches 390 parts per million (see below),  48 percent of Americans said they believed the seriousness of climate change is overstated, up from 41 percent in 2009 and 31 percent in 1997, when Gallup first ran the survey, Reuters  reported.

“Thirty-five percent said in the latest poll that the effects of global warming either will never happen (19 percent) or will not happen in their lifetimes (16 percent).”

Gallup surveyed about1,000 adults, and the poll had error margin of ± 4 percent.

What Percentage of Americans DO Understand and Care?

It doesn’t take the rocket scientists at NASA to work this one out. Add 48 and 35 and the maximum margins of error (otherwise allow for the “I dunno”), and deduct the subtotal from 100 percent:   100 – (48 + 35 + 4 + 4) = 9% of the U-S population

Only then will you realize what an uphill struggle this can be!

The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii.

The last four complete years of the Mauna Loa CO₂ record plus the current year are shown. Data are reported as a dry air mole fraction defined as the number of molecules of carbon dioxide divided by the number of all molecules in air, including CO₂ itself, after water vapor has been removed. The mole fraction is expressed as parts per million (ppm). Example: 0.000400 is expressed as 400 ppm.

In the above figure, the dashed red line with diamond symbols represents the monthly mean values, centered on the middle of each month. The black line with the square symbols represents the same, after correction for the average seasonal cycle. The latter is determined as a moving average of SEVEN adjacent seasonal cycles centered on the month to be corrected, except for the first and last THREE and one-half years of the record, where the seasonal cycle has been averaged over the first and last SEVEN years, respectively.

The last year of data are still preliminary, pending recalibrations of reference gases and other quality control checks. The Mauna Loa data are being obtained at an altitude of 3400 m in the northern subtropics, and may not be the same as the globally averaged CO₂ concentration at the surface.

Related Links:

• December Ocean Temperature 2nd Warmest
• Canceling Your Life Insurance Policy with Nature
• Another Ocean Record Broken
• US glaciers shrinking dramatically
• Arctic Tundra 4ºC Hotter Since 1970
• US Gov Releases Intelligence Images of Arctic Ice

• Ice of the Past
• Polar Ice Caps
• Arctic Warmest in 2000 Years
• Small Country, Big ‘Dirty Little Secret’
• ‘Experts’ surprised at coastal ice thinning
• Who is afraid of melting ice sheets?

• Emerging Patterns of Vanishing Ice Shelves
• Global warming worse than predicted: Surprised?
• Climate Change Finals – CO2: 392 Human Chances: 0
• Warmer temperatures destroy forests faster
• Earth’s Climate: A Solar Powered System
• Ice Melt in Alaska, Antarctica, Greenland Accelerating

• Guess what, the Arctic temps are 5 ºC warmer!
• Arctic Sea Ice: Likely Record-Low Volume
• Environmental issues, Big Oil, politics, CORRUPTION, Sarah Palin, even the moose, beluga whale and polar bear …
• Carbon Footprint of Your Dollar

The Big Island

The Island of Hawaiʻi (the Big Island or Hawaiʻi Island) is a volcanic island With an area of 4,028 square miles (10,432 km²), it is the largest island in the United States and larger than all of the other Hawaiian Islands combined.

The Island of Hawaiʻi is built from five separate shield volcanoes that erupted somewhat sequentially, one overlapping the other. These are (from oldest to youngest):

• Kohala (dormant),
• Mauna Kea (dormant),
• Hualālai (dormant),
• Mauna Loa (active, partly within Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park), and
• Kīlauea (very active; part of Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park).

This simulated true-color image of the island of Hawai’i was derived from data gathered by the Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+) on the Landsat 7 satellite between 1999 and 2001. Image: NASA/NOAA

The Island of Hawaiʻi is administered under the County of Hawaiʻi. The county seat is Hilo. It is estimated that as of the year 2003, the island had a resident population of 158,400.

MAP of Principal Islands of Hawaii

Source: [http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/united_states Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection]

In greatest dimension, the island is 93 miles (150 km) across and has a land area of 4,028.0 square miles (10,432.5 km²),representing 62% of the total land area of the Hawaiian Islands. Measured from its base at the sea floor, to its highest peak, Mauna Kea is the tallest mountain in the world, even taller than Mount Everest, according to the Guinness Book of Records. Traditionally, Hawaiʻi is known as the Big Island because it is the largest of the Hawaiian Islands and some confusion between Hawaiʻi Island and Hawaiʻi State can be avoided.

Mauna Kea with its seasonal snowcap, viewed from Kohala Mountain . Mauna Kea is a dormant volcano in the Hawaiian Islands, one of five volcanoes which together form the island of Hawaii. Pu’u Wekiu, one of numerous cinder cones on the summit plateau, is the highest point in the state of Hawaii at 13,796 feet (4,205 m). Mauna Kea is the tallest mountain in the world when measured from base to summit, since its base is located on the seafloor about 19,000 feet (5,800 m) beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean, bringing its total height to about 33,000 ft (10,000 m). In the Hawaiian language, mauna kea means “white mountain”, a reference to its summit being regularly snow-capped during the Northern Hemisphere winter. [Caption from Wikipedia]
Licensed under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation license, Version 1.2 or any later version published by the Free Software Foundation. Credit: Eric Guinther; via Wikimedia Commons

Because Mauna Loa and Kīlauea are active volcanoes, the island of Hawaiʻi is still growing. Between January 1983 and September 2002, 543 acres (220 ha) of land were added to the island by lava flows from Kīlauea volcano extending the coastline seaward. Several towns have been destroyed by Kīlauea lava flows in modern times: Kapoho (1960), Kalapana (1990), and Kaimū (1990). (Source: Wikipedia)

Volcanoes of Hawaii (Big Island)

About 8 million tourists visit the Hawaiian Islands each year, leaving behind a legacy of air, land and sea pollution.

Related Links:

• Kilauea Volcano Continues to Discharge Lava

• Stop the Rape of Kauai (Video)

Is 350 ppm Safe? Hell, NO!

Folks, don’t be fooled by the hype: 350 ppmv NOT safe!

1. There is a 30-year time lag between the release of CO2e greenhouse gases to the atmosphere and the cumulative impact of heat-trapping mechanism taking effect.
2. The positive feedback system whose impacts we are now witnessing started when the atmospheric CO2 concentration rose above the 330 ppmv in the mid 1970s.
3. Any concentration level above the 330 ppm is clearly unsafe. To stabilize at levels below 330 ppm, we must aim for much lower levels of about 260-270 ppm.

Average air bubble CO₂ concentration versus age in three ice cores taken close to the summit of Law Dome at 67�S, 113�E, around 1390 m elevation. Law Dome is near the Australian Antarctic station Casey. (Source)

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The red curve shows the average monthly concentrations; blue curve is a moving 12 month average. GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 only as published by the Free Software Foundation. [Credit User Superm401via Wikimedia]

Related Links:

• 350 or 450 ppm? Neither, Actually!

• Greenland Ice Melt Faster Than IPCC Estimates
• Only Zero Emissions Would Avert Dangerous Warming
• Stern Report: “a great toxic dump of doublespeak in truly Orwellian fashion”
• UN Hypocrisy: Kick the CO2 Habit!
• The myth of keeping CO2 under 450ppm