More than 5,000 Melting Glaciers Threaten Pakistan

Average temperatures in the mountainous valleys of Pakistan risen by up to 10°C

Some 5,128 glaciers located in ten river basins of Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region, are melting rapidly due to increase in average temperatures in the mountainous valleys.

“Presently, glacial melting is among major global warming-induced risk Pakistan is grappled with. Other risks include sea-level rise, floods, higher than average temperature, a higher frequency of droughts and expanding desertification,” Pakistan’s Deputy Director Ministry of Climate Change Mohammad Saleem told APP on Tuesday.

Source: http://dailytimes.com.pk/

Increased or above-normal flows are occurring in glacial streams in the summer time feeding the 3,500 kilometer-long Indus River.

The mountain streams now flow even in winter, which was never observed couple of years ago as revealed by the residents particularly Hunza, Ghizer, Gupis, Skardu, Gulmit and Bagrot valleys of the Gilgit-Baltistan in the country’s north, reflecting the gravity of the global warming issue, he said.

“Temperatures in most of the mountainous valleys never used to go beyond 30 degree Celsius during summer but now it surpasses 40 degree Celsius at times.”

“This rise in temperature was causing expansion of rainy weather on one hand and squeezing the snowfall period on the other. The reduced snowfall period makes it difficult for the snow to take the shape of glaciers,” Saleem said.

Increase in frequency and intensity in rainfall instead of snowfall in these mountains triggers flash floods, which results in large-scale damages in the areas. The official, who is also spokesman of the ministry, said besides rising earth temperatures, high paced urbanization of the mountain valleys and increased vehicular traffic have accelerated the melting process of the glaciers.

Alarmingly, melting process continues in winter causing exceptional flow in streams and rivers, which in turn is causing flooding in these valleys, threatening lives and livelihoods of the locals and damaging the infrastructure, the report said.

Recent findings of 10 weather monitoring stations installed by the Pakistan Meteorological Department also concluded that glaciers in ablation zone [which refers to the low-altitude area of a glacier] is receding faster and snowline is marching upward. This means shrinking in the glacier area. “This means that the ablation zones are increasing and accumulation zones of the glaciers reducing.”

It is because at the lower elevation up to 2,500 meters the heat penetration is increasing, which is causing the glaciers shrink at such elevation levels. For instance, one weather monitoring station installed at the Hinarchi glacier in Bagrot valley of Gilgit district, has showed that the glacier has retreated 800 meters in the 32 years between 1977 and 2009. It retreated another 300 meters between 2009 and 2014.

Likewise, the Baulter glacier which had retreated 1,500 meters, shrank another 400 meters by 2014. The future of the Barpu glacier looks bleak as it has shrunk 640 meters since 1977.

“According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), there were some 2,400 potentially hazardous glacial lakes in the country’s remotest mountain valleys in 2010, a number that has now increased to over 3,000.”

Read more…

“Inventory of Glaciers and Glacial Lakes and the Identification of Potential Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) Affected by Global Warming in the Mountains ofIndia, Pakistan and China/Tibet Autonomous Region”

A 2005 study identified 5,218 glaciers with the glacier area coverage of 15,040 km² [with 2,738 km³ of ice reserves] and 2,420 lakes including 52 “potentially dangerous” glacial lakes in Pakistan.

• In Indian Himalaya, the Tista River basin covers 285 glaciers with the glacier area of 576 km², 266 glacial lakes and 14 potentially dangerous glacial lakes.

• The Himachal Pradesh region holds 2,554 glaciers with the glacier area of 4,160 km² and 229 lakes including 22 potential GLOF.

• The Uttaranchal Himalayan region holds 1,439 glaciers with the glacier area of 4,060 km². Some 127 lakes are identified from the satellite images but none is classified as potential GLOF.

• In Tibet Autonomous Region, a total of 1,578 glaciers with a glacier area of 2,864 km², were mapped in the sub-basins of Ganges River. Some 824 lakes were identified including 77 lakes as potential GLOF.

 

Zachariae Isstrom Glacier in Accelerated Retreat

Greenland’s ZI losing 5 billion tons of mass per year: Report

The northeast Greenland glacier Zachariae Isstrom  (ZI) has come unmoored from a stabilizing sill and is crumbling into the North Atlantic Ocean at an accelerated rate of 5 billion tons per year, according to a report published in the current issue of Science.

ZI, which holds “a 0.5-meter sea-level rise equivalent,” entered a phase of accelerated retreat in fall 2012, says the report.

“The acceleration rate of its ice velocity tripled, melting of its residual ice shelf and thinning of its grounded portion doubled, and calving is now occurring at its grounding line. Warmer air and ocean temperatures have caused the glacier to detach from a stabilizing sill and retreat rapidly along a downward-sloping, marine-based bed. ”

“Zachariae Isstrom is being hit from above and below,” said senior author Eric Rignot, a researcher at Earth system science at UCI. “The top of the glacier is melting away as a result of decades of steadily increasing air temperatures, while its underside is compromised by currents carrying warmer ocean water, and the glacier is now breaking away into bits and pieces and retreating into deeper ground.”

Its “equal-ice-volume” neighbor Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden, which is also melting rapidly, though retreating at a slower rate along an upward-sloping bed, drain a sector about 200,000 km² in size, or 12% of the Greenland Ice Sheet, says the report

“These two glaciers together drain the northeast Greenland ice stream, the only large, dynamic feature that extends continuously deep to the ice sheet interior near Greenland’s summit. This marine-based sector holds a 1.1-m sea-level rise equivalent.”

“Not long ago, we wondered about the effect on sea levels if Earth’s major glaciers were to start retreating,” says Rignot. “We no longer need to wonder; for a couple of decades now, we’ve been able to directly observe the results of climate warming on polar glaciers. The changes are staggering and are now affecting the four corners of Greenland.”

The report is published in the current issue of Science, posted at http://www.sciencemag.org/  [Science. ISSN 0036-8075 (print), 1095-9203 (online) ]

China’s Glaciers Shrink by 18 Percent

Glaciers in China retreat by 18 pct in 5 decades

China’s glaciers have retreated by about 18 percent since the 1950s, say Chinese scientists, reported Xinhua.

Using data gathered by remote sensing between 2006 and 2010, the scientist calculated 48,571 glaciers covering 51,840km² in the western China, the report quoted the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) as saying. CAS released its second catalog of the country’s glaciers on Saturday.

“An average of 243.7 square km of glacial ice had disappeared every year over the past half century, according to the survey by the CAS Cold and Arid Regions Research Institute.

“The worst shrink was detected on the Altai Mountains located in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and the Gangdise Mountain in the Tibet Autonomous Region, with retreat hitting 37.2 percent and 32.7 percent respectively over the past five decades,” said the report.

“Major glaciers on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau, especially the east part of Gangdise as well as the southern and western Himalayas were melting at the most rapid pace, with areas shrinking by 2.2 percent every year, according to the survey.”

Unfortunately, the report didn’t include the decadal rate of retreat for comparison purposes.

Original Caption: Photo taken on Dec. 19, 2011 shows the shrinking Puruo Gangri glacier, southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region. According to the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), glaciers on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and surrounding areas have shrunk by 15 percent from 53,000 to 45,000 square kilometers over the past three decades. (Xinhua/Chogo). More images…

However, in May 2014, “a state laboratory director with the Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute of CAS,” was reported as saying that glaciers in the Tibetan Plateau had been shrinking since the 20th century, and that the rate of retreat had accelerated since the 1990s.

“More and bigger cracks have appeared in ice at regions of an altitude above 6,300 meters in Mount Qomolangma, a sign of rapidly melting glaciers,” Xinhua reported him as saying.

“Southwest China’s Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, the major source of the country’s largest rivers, has seen its glaciers shrink rapidly over the past 30 years,” Xinhua reported CAS as saying in May 2014.

CAS stated that glaciers on the plateau and surrounding areas had shrunk by 15 percent from 53,000 to 45,000km² over the past three decades.

Flash Floods Kill Dozens, Destroy Thousands of Homesteads in S. Somalia, Kenya, Uganda

Deadly Flash Floods Wreak Havoc in S. Somalia, Uganda

Tens of thousands of people have lost their homes and livelihoods, and dozens are dead amid flash flooding across a vast region in East Africa.

Flash floods triggered by extreme rain events  in southern Somalia have claimed at least a dozen lives, most of them  children,  left  more than 50,000 others displaced, and submerged thousands of hectares of farmland across the country.

• The flooding in Juba and Shabelle river basins have destroyed scores of homes, businesses and much of the infrastructure in the region.

In Uganda, at least a dozen people  are dead, and 25,000 others made homeless, since flooding began on May 1.

• The lively town of Bulembia Division is now a ghost town, said a report.

• “Further down River Nyamwamba is Kilembe Mines Hospital. The 260 bed hospital was hit by boulders wiping away the staff quarters and flooding the rest of the hospital.”
• “The flash floods are attributed to heavy rains coupled with by the melting glaciers on top of Mountain Rwenzori. According to the climate change unit at the Ministry of Water and Environment, only 18.5 hectares remained [The peak has retreated by more than 85%—Moderator] by 2006 out of the hectares that were at the highest peak of Mountain Rwenzori in 1906.”

The Ruwenzori Range. Satellite images of the Ruwenzori Mountains. Images  taken in 1995 and in 2012  show a decline in the extent of the glaciers on these mountain peaks. A century ago the glaciers of the Ruwenzori Mountains covered nearly 6.5 km².  The glacial recession on the Ruwenzori Mountains is most likely because of higher air temperatures and less snow accumulation during the 20th century
(UNEP n.d.).

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Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events

Iowa, USA

Fifteen additional Iowa counties have now been declared disaster areas following  damages and losses caused by severe flooding and storms late last month.

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Michigan, USA

Allegan County declares state of emergency from April flooding in attempt to get disaster aid

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Illinois, USA

Gov. Quinn has asked the Federal Government to declare 11 Illinois counties major disaster areas following the storms and flooding that pounded the state in April.

• Quinn declared a total of 49 counties disaster areas following widespread flash and river flooding caused by extreme rain events in April.
• “For the 11 counties included in Thursday’s request, the teams identified 41 homes that were destroyed, 761 with major damage and 2,715 with some damage, according to the governor’s office. In addition, nearly 80 businesses sustained flood damage,” said a report.

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DISASTER CALENDAR – May 10, 2013 — 
SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,037 Days Left 

Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

• SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,037 Days Left to ‘Worst Day’ in the brief Human  History
• The countdown began on May 15, 2011 …

GLOBAL WARNINGS

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID PLANETARY DECLINE IN PROGRESS!
• Europe: The First Phase of Collapse Has Started 
• United States: The First Phase of Collapse Has Begun

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

Famine in China, India If Himalayan Melt Continues

Is Earth Round?

Does heat melt the ice, or make it last longer?

Himalayan Glaciers Are Really Melting!

Himalaya from the International Space Station. Astronauts on board the International Space Station took advantage of their unique vantage point to photograph the Himalayas [28 January 2004,] looking south from over the Tibetan Plateau. The perspective is illustrated by the summits of Makalu [left (8,462 metres; 27,765 feet)], Everest [middle (8,848 metres; 29,035 feet)] , Lhotse [middle (8,516 metres; 27,939 feet)] and Cho Oyu [right (8,201 metres; 26,906 feet)] — at the heights typically flown by commercial aircraft. NASA Photo ID: ISS008-E-13304. See also: Himalayas Pan

Indisputable Fact #1 [Even by the Flat Earth yardstick wielded by the ‘Corporment*-instructed folks’ at you know where in the UK.]

The temperatures in the Himalayan mountain range have increased by between 0.15 and 0.6 degrees Celsius (0.27 and 1.08 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade in the last 30 years [3 x the decadal increase,] exponentially accelerating the rate by which glaciers are melting.

Indisputable Fact #2

Vast lakes made by shrinking glaciers in the region threaten to burst, burying dozens of villages downstream in Bhutan and Nepal.

Indisputable Fact #3

The locals say each year for the past 30 or so years feels to be warmer than the previous year.

Indisputable Fact #4

By far many more experts believe that temperatures are changing, and that the warming is happening more rapidly at altitude, than those who oppose climate change as fiction.

KHUNJERAB Pass, Pakistan: Himalayan glaciers feed 10 rivers including Asia’s seven greatest: Brahmaputra, Ganges, Huange He, Indus, Mekong, Salween (Thanlwin), Yangtse and Yellow rivers. Up to 1.5 billion people are dependent on the Himalayan lifelines. Photo Credit: Olivier Matthys/EPA. Image may be subject to copyright. Source.

Indisputable Fact #5

Himalayas Glaciers, a 2,400-km  range that feed Asia’s ten largest rivers, provide lifelines for up to 1.5 billion Asians in half dozen countries downstream. Any “alarmist”  finding could prove very costly for the governments in those countries.

India’s Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh recently cited questionable research an the Indian geologist, Vijay Kumar Raina, categorically denying that climate change was causing any of Himalayan glaciers to melt, and that some of them were actually advancing.

The minister was banking on the fact that there’s a lack of scientific data in the region, which has been described as a “blank spot.”

But the consensus among the scientific community is that ” most glaciers will be gone in 40 years as a result of climate change,” according to Prashant Singh, leader of environmental group WWF’s Climate for Life campaign.

FEWW Comment: What is being ignored by most glaciologists is the behavior of glaciers after partial melt. The mathematical models widely assume that the glaciers would stay near stationery and just melt away until they dry up and disappear. There’s no provision made for the highly probable impact of earthquakes, landslides and the lubricating effects of meltwater on the upper layers of ice.

Up to 1.5 billion people, and more added each year, are dependent on the Himalayan glaciers lifelines. Less water would lead to drought affecting agriculture throughout the region and leading to famine, disease, war and unimaginable number of deaths.

[* Corporment: Government run by corporate interests]

Related Links:

• Glacial retreat in Himalaya
• Canceling Your Life Insurance Policy with Nature

Penguins DDT Contamination Levels Still High

Just when you thought penguins fared better than polar bears!

Just when you thought the Antarctic marine life had only a few minor problems like the climate change and ozone hole to worry about, but were otherwise safe from other harms like ingesting plastic trash, or growing a “skin” rash from pesticide contamination, it has been revealed that the deadly pesticide DDT, banned in most countries more than 35 years ago, stills show up in penguins in Antarctica.

A researcher has blamed the DDT contamination on the chemical’s accumulation of the poison in melting glaciers.

“DDT, along with a lot of other of these organic contaminants, actually travel through the atmosphere … toward the polar regions by a process of evaporation and then condensation in cooler climates,” according to Heidi Geisz of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science.

The DDT contamination in the Adelie penguins was first discovered in 1964. The contamination level rose in the 1970s and has stayed stable since then, Geisz said.

Mating Adelie penguins at Cape Adare in Ross Sea, Antarctica January of 2001. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution ShareAlike license versions 2.5, 2.0, and 1.0 (Credit: Mila Zinkova)

In 1962, Silent Spring by American biologist Rachel Carson was published. The book cataloged the environmental impacts of the indiscriminate spraying of DDT in the US and questioned the logic of releasing large amounts of chemicals into the environment without fully understanding their effects on ecology or human health. The book suggested that DDT and other pesticides may cause cancer and that their agricultural use was a threat to wildlife, particularly birds. Its publication was one of the signature events in the birth of the environmental movement. Silent Spring resulted in a large public outcry that eventually led to most uses of DDT being banned in the US in 1972. DDT was subsequently banned for agricultural use worldwide, but its limited use in disease vector control continues to this day in certain parts of the world and remains controversial. (source)

Is it possible that New Zealand is still using DDT in large quantities?

Related Links:

• Pesticide DDT shows up in Antarctic penguins

• Health Bulletin # 2. Exposure to Compound 1080 Feb. 10, 2008
• Health Bulletin # 1. Exposure to Bromoethane Feb. 6, 2008

• Oceans, Where Life Started, Are Dying – Part III
• Oceans, Where Life Started, Are Dying – Part II
• Oceans, Where Life Started, Are Dying – Part I
• Truth About ‘100% Pure New Zealand’ Advertising Campaign

Only Zero Emissions Would Avert Dangerous Warming

The following is a response to an article in the New Scientist titled Zero emissions needed to avert ‘dangerous’ warming. The response was submitted by The Management School of Restorative Business. The original article is posted below.

RE: Zero emissions needed to avert ‘dangerous’ warming

MSRB concurs with the overall conclusion of the University of Victoria report that the only way to stabilize the temperature is by total elimination of industrial emissions.

However, according to our model, even with the total elimination of industrial emissions effected immediately the temperature would stabilize above 3.2^oC probably by 2025.

Further, their timeline appears to be too optimistic. According to our model the global warming “tipping point” occurred in mid 2006, beyond which all changes are irreversible [in the short run.] We expect to experience catastrophic climatic events starting by 2009-2010. By as early as 2015, we believe dramatic ecosystems collapses including ozone holes, global heating, extreme climatic events, toxic pollution, depletion of food and natural resources, unethical conduct, war and disease pandemics would result in the depopulation of most of our population clusters.

The world entered a double exponential* phase in 1980, when Earth’s “torching energy,” exceeded 9.51 terawatts {q[torch] > 9.51TW.} According to MSRB model the countdown toward the Earth’s “Terminal Energy” had started. The q[torch] for the first half 2007 averaged at 16.8TW. See http://msrb.wordpress.com/2007/08/25/the-point-of-no-return/ and http://msrb.wordpress.com/stop-burning-earth/

*[Note: Double exponential functions grow even faster than exponential functions.]

Apart from the obvious political reasons, most climate models are fundamentally flawed because they (i) use tired old formula to “predict” the future changes based on empirical analysis, (ii) base their calculations on the “official” data, (iii) are “one-dimensional” and therefore unable to model accurately or forecast the behavior of sophisticated, highly interdependent systems such as Earth’s ecosystems.

The best [and the only intelligent] course of action on global and national levels would be an immediate “powerdown” to the “safe” energy consumption levels of about 60EJ, while allocating most of the resources to creating low-energy communities that provide food, shelter, education and safety for as many people as possible.

The Management School of
Restorative Business (MSRB)

Related Links:

• Human Impact
• Emerging Trends
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• First Wave of Collapsing Cities

Original Article:

http://environment.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn12775&print=true
Zero emissions needed to avert dangerous warming
16:56 11 October 2007
NewScientist.com news service
Catherine Brahic

Only the total elimination of industrial emissions will succeed in imiting climate change to a 20C rise in temperatures, according to omputer analysis of climate change. Anything above this target has been identified as “dangerous” by some scientists, and the limit has been adopted by many policymakers.

The researchers say their study highlights the shortcomings of governmental plans to limit climate change.

A warming of 20C above pre-industrial temperatures is frequently cited as the limit beyond which the world will face “dangerous” climate change. Beyond this level, analysis suggests the continents will cease to absorb more carbon dioxide than they produce. As the tundra and other regions of permafrost thaw, they will spew more gas into the atmosphere, adding to the warming effect of human emissions.

The end result will be dramatic ecological changes, including widespread coastal flooding, reduced food production, and widespread species extinction.

Established model

In January 2007, the European Commission issued a communication stating that “the European Union’s objective is to limit global average temperature increase to less than 20C compared to pre-industrial levels”.

Andrew Weaver and colleagues at the University of Victoria in Canada say this means going well beyond the reduction of industrial emissions discussed in international negotiations.

Weaver’s team used a computer model to determine how much emissions must be limited in order to avoid exceeding a 20C increase. The model is an established tool for analysing future climate change and was used in studies cited in the IPCC’s reports on climate change.

They modelled the reduction of industrial emissions below 2006 levels by between 20% and 100% by 2050. Only when emissions were entirely eliminated did the temperature increase remain below 20C.

A 100% reduction of emissions saw temperature change stabilise at 1.50C above the pre-industrial figure. With a 90% reduction by 2050, Weaver’s model predicted that temperature change will eventually exceed 20C compared to pre-industrial temperatures but then plateau.

Stark contrast

The researchers conclude that governments should consider reducing emissions to 90% below current levels and remove what is left in the atmosphere by capturing and storing carbon (see Chemical ‘sponge’ could filter CO2 from air).

There is a stark contrast between this proposal and the measures currently being considered. Under the UN’s Kyoto protocol, most developed nations have agreed to limit their emissions to a minimum of 5% below 1990 levels by 2012. What happens beyond this date is the subject of ongoing debate and negotiation.

The European Union nations have agreed to limit their emissions to 20% below 1990 levels by 2020, and support dropping global emissions to 50% below 1990 levels by 2050.

“There is a disconnect between the European Union arguing for a 20C threshold and calling for 50% cuts at 2050 – you can’t have it both ways,” says Weaver, who adds: “If you’re going to talk about 20C you have got to be talking 90% emissions cuts.”

Vanishing point

Tim Lenton, a climatologist at the University of East Anglia in the UK, agrees that even the most ambitious climate change policies so far proposed by governments may not go far enough. “It is overly simplistic assume we can take emissions down to 50% at 2050 and just hold them there. We already know that that’s not going to work,” he says.

Even with emissions halved, Lenton says carbon dioxide will continue building up in the atmosphere and temperatures will continue to rise. For temperature change to stabilise, he says industrial carbon emissions must not exceed what can be absorbed by Earth’s vegetation, soil and oceans.

At the moment, about half of industrial emissions are absorbed by ocean and land carbon “sinks”. But simply cutting emissions by half will not solve the problem, Lenton says, because these sinks also grow and shrink as CO2 emissions change.

“People are easily misled into thinking that 50% by 2050 is all we have to do when in fact have to continue reducing emissions afterwards, all the way down to zero,” Lenton says.

Journal reference: Geophysical Research Letters ( DOI: 0.1029/2007GL031018 )

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