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Posts Tagged ‘model forecast of enso’

El Niño Update – 3 August 2009

Posted by feww on August 4, 2009

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 3 August 2009


  • El Niño conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate ElNiño conditions will continue to intensify and are expected to last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Tropical Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) and Wind Anomalies – Last 30 Days

OLr anoms

(Top) Positive OLR anomalies (suppressed convection and precipitation, red shading) were present over Indonesia and northern Australia, while negative anomalies (enhanced convection, blue shading) in the western and central Pacific from Papua New Guinea to 160°W.

(Middle) Low-level (850-hPa) equatorial winds were near-average over the eastern equatorial Pacific. Westerly anomalies were observed in the far western Pacific.

(Above) Upper-level (200-hPa) wind anomalies remained near-average across much of the Pacific, except for westerly wind anomalies in the eastern Pacific.
Images and caption: NOAA/ NCEP.

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