What is it with NOLA Federal Judges and Big Oil?

NOLA federal judge dismisses wetlands damage lawsuit against 88 oil and gas companies

A New Orleans federal judge, U.S. District Judge Nannette Jolivette Brown, has dismissed a wetlands damage lawsuit by SLFPAE, a levee authority, that sought to force 88 oil, gas and pipeline companies to repair or pay for damages to wetlands.

[SLFPAE is the Southeast Louisiana Flood Protection Authority (East), which covers three consolidated districts in NOLA: East Jefferson Levee District, Orleans Levee District, and Lake Borgne Basin Levee District.]

The lawsuit, which was filed in 2013 by SLFPAE, contended that the energy companies had dug more than 10,000 miles of oil and gas canals and pipelines through Louisiana’s fragile wetlands, destroying the ecosystem and reducing the effectiveness of the recently-rebuilt levee system that protects most of metro New Orleans from catastrophic flooding.

“The product of this network is an ecosystem so seriously diseased that its complete demise is inevitable if no action is taken,” said the suit.

The suit attempted to get the defendants to either repair the damage to the compromised environmental buffer zone, or pay damages to the authority to improve the levee system.

However, the Judge said in her 49-page ruling that SLFPA didn’t have enough legal standing to justify a financial claim against the companies.

“We are gratified by this ruling to dismiss this ill-conceived, unwise and divisive litigation, which we have contended all along was nothing more than an attempt to subvert the existing legal and regulatory processes,” said Greg Beuerman, a spokesperson for Shell, Chevron and BP, all defendants in the suit.

“We appreciate the judge’s ruling and are pleased that this frivolous lawsuit has come to an end,” said the deputy communications director for Gov. Bobby [NO-GO Zones] Jindal.

Plaintiff initially named 149 defendants.However, only 88 defendants remain in this litigation, according to the court documents.

Factual Background [from the 49-page court-ruling – Case 2:13-cv-05410-NJB-DEK Document 529 Filed 02/13/15 ]

Defendants are eighty-eight oil and gas companies operating in what Plaintiff refers to as the “Buffer Zone.”

The Buffer Zone “extends from East of the Mississippi River through the Breton Sound Basin, the Biloxi Marsh, and the coastal wetlands of eastern New Orleans and up to Lake St. Catherine.”

Plaintiff alleges that Defendants’ oil and gas operations have led to coastal erosion in the Buffer Zone, making south Louisiana more vulnerable to severe weather and flooding. According to Plaintiff, “[c]oastal lands have for centuries provided a crucial buffer zone between south Louisiana’s communities and the violent wave action and storm surge that tropical storms and hurricanes transmit from the Gulf of Mexico.” However, “[h]undreds of thousands of acres of coastal lands that once protected south Louisiana are now gone as a result of oil and gas activities.” Specifically, Plaintiff asserts that Defendants have “dredged a network of canals to access oil and gas wells and to transport the many products and by-products of oil and gas production.” This canal network, in conjunction with “the altered hydrology associated with oil and gas activities,” has caused vegetation die-off, sedimentation inhibition, erosion, and submergence—all leading to coastal land loss.

In addition to the initial dredging, Plaintiff maintains that Defendants “exacerbate direct land loss by failing to maintain the canal network and banks of the canals that Defendants have dredged, used, or otherwise overseen.”

This failure has “caused both the erosion of the canal banks and expansion beyond their originally permitted widths and depths of the canals comprising that network.”

Looking beyond the alleged effects of the canal network, Plaintiff identifies ten other oil and gas activities that, it claims, “drastically inhibit the natural hydrological patterns and processes of the coastal lands”—road dumps, ring levees, drilling activities, fluid withdrawal, seismic surveys, marsh buggies, spoil disposal/ dispersal, watercraft navigation, impoundments, and propwashing/ maintenance dredging.

Global Disasters/ Significant Events – October 5, 2013

Saudi black ops team carried out Damascus chemical weapons attack – Russian diplomatic source

The chemical attack in the suburbs of Damascus, Syria, on August 21 was carried out by a Saudi Arabian black ops team, according a Russian diplomatic source.

“Based on data from a number of sources a picture can be pieced together. The criminal provocation in Eastern Ghouta was done by a black op team that the Saudi’s sent through Jordan and which acted with support of the Liwa Al-Islam group,” a Russian diplomat reportedly told Interfax news agency.

The attack was meant to complicate an already delicate situation in Syria, another source said.

“Syrians of various political views, including some opposition fighters, are seeking to inform diplomats and members of international organizations working in Syria what they know about the crime and the forces which inspired it,” he told the agency.

“Earlier reports pointed to Saudi Arabia as the mastermind behind the chemical attack, which almost led to US military action against Syrian government. Supporters of this scenario say intelligence services in Riyadh were looking for a false flag operation to provoke an American intervention in Syria, which would tip the balance of power in favor of the armed opposition supported by Saudi Arabia,” said a report.

-oOo-

Lampedusa Migrants Boat Disaster: Death toll could reach 300

Choppy seas prevented divers on Friday from recovering more bodies of migrants who drowned  off Sicily on Thursday.

The Italian coastguard has so far recovered 111 bodies and expect to find at least 200 others. The boat sank  about 800 meters from the shore of the southern island of Lampedusa.

Some 155 people have been recused, but more than 200 others are not accounted for, authorities said.

The 20-m vessel is sitting upright on the seabed about 47m below the surface, video footage shows.

Since the 1990s, about 20,000 people have lost their lives trying to reach Italy from North Africa, according to data of known incidents; however, thousands more are likely to have perished without a trace.

-oOo-

Mandatory evacuation orders issued for low-lying areas south of New Orleans

State officials have issued mandatory evacuation orders for low-lying areas south of New Orleans as a Tropical Storm KAREN continued to move toward the Louisiana coast.

KAREN has forced oil and gas companies to shut platforms and evacuate most of their workforces, cutting output by more than a half in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for about a fifth of U.S. oil production and more than 6 percent of natural gas.

Since Thursday, the governors of Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida and Alabama have declared states of emergency to mobilize their resources.

-oOo-

Typhoon FITOW Buffeting SW Japan

Typhoon FITOW is dumping significant amounts of rain over the Okinawa region. Forecaster say  the region could receive downpours of 60 mm per hour through Sunday.

Expected rainfall totals through Sunday evening could top 200 mm on the Saki-shima Islands, and 150 mm on Okinawa’s main island, said NHK.

“The local observatory advises caution against strong winds, high waves, a storm surge, landslides, flooding in low-lying areas, swollen rivers, tornadoes, and gusting winds.”

-oOo-

Bodies Unearthed in Bosnian Mass Grave

About 100 bodies have so far been unearthed at a newly discovered mass grave in northern Bosnia-Herzegovina, reports say.

The victims are believed to be Bosnian Muslims and Croats who were ethnically cleansed by Serbian forces occupying the region during the three-year Bosnian War (1992 and 1995).

Serbian forces reportedly killed more than 30,000 civilians during their war of aggression.

In July 1995, Serbians massacred more than 8,000 Bosnians in Srebrenica, in what was the worst act of genocide in Europe since the Second World War.

-oOo-

Self-immolation at the National Mall

A man was in critical condition Friday night after he poured gasoline on his body and set himself on fire on the National Mall, reports said.

Photo credit: Terry Hays. More images…

Continued…

State of Emergency Declared in Oregon Due to Wildfire

Oregon declares a statewide state of emergency due to ‘imminent threat of wildfire’ 

Oregon Gov Kitzhaber has  declared a statewide State of Emergency due to ‘the imminent threat of wildfire,’ after  extreme fire danger and red flag warnings were issued for much of the state.

• A wildfire has scorched about 85,000, threatening at least 200 structures and prompting evacuation orders for residents near Lakeview.
  • The Barry Point Fire, sparked by lightning on Monday August 6, is located about 22 miles southwest of Lakeview, OR on the Fremont-Winema National Forest and private lands.

• Another Wildfire, Ten Mile Complex Fire, consisting of the Ten Mile fire (10,000 acres), and the Banana Lake Fire(5,000 acres), also sparked by lightning, is reportedly 90 percent contained.

• The Holloway Fire, a Mega Wildfire, has  scorched 700 square miles along the Nevada-Oregon state line, more than half of it in Oregon.

• Other wildfires in the state include the Fort Complex fire, three blazes burning together from California into SW Oregon, the Waterfalls 2 fire near Warm Springs, and the Butte fire in Douglas County.

‘Thunderstorms this weekend in the Pacific Northwest, particularly western Washington through Oregon into northern California and Nevada, will be capable of abundant lightning with little or no rain. Given the very dry fuel conditions, lightning has the potential to start new wildfires across the region,’ NWS said.

Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events

• Texas, USA.Dallas Mayor has declared a state of emergency and ordered aerial pesticide spraying in Dallas following a surge in the cases of the West Nile virus which have killed at least 26 people nationwide this summer.
  • Dallas County has reported more than 200 infections, which have resulted in at least ten deaths.
  • About 450 human cases of West Nile virus have been reported in 2 dozen Texas counties, with at least 16 fatalities attributed to the infections.
  • In Houston, 95% of mosquitoes tested carry the virus.
• See also: Forest Fires Force Thousands to Evacuate in Canary Islands

2012 West Nile virus update: as of August 14

At least 43 states have reported West Nile virus infections in people, birds, or mosquitoes. A total of 861 cases of West Nile virus disease in people, including at least 26 deaths, have been reported to CDC. Of these, 59% were classified as neuroinvasive disease (such as meningitis or encephalitis) and 41% were classified as non-neuroinvasive disease.

More than 80 percent of the cases have been reported from six states (Texas, Mississippi, Louisiana, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and California) and almost half of all cases have been reported from Texas, CDC reported.

West Nile virus (WNV) activity reported to ArboNET, by state, United States, 2012 (as of August 14, 2012)

Eight hundred sixty-one (861) human West Nile virus infections have been reported to CDC ArboNET from Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee and Texas.

Non-human WNV Cases

Non-human West Nile virus infections have been reported to CDC ArboNET from Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

• Louisiana, USA.   Gov Jindal has declared a state of emergency for Plaquemines Parish due to encroaching salt water, which is threatening drinking water in the New Orleans area.
  • “Due to the Mississippi River’s low water levels, salt water has been moving far upriver and was at the outskirts of New Orleans by Wednesday, nearly 90 miles north of the mouth of the Mississippi,” said a report.
  • High levels of sodium and chloride have been detected in Plaquemines Parish’s drinking water.

Links to Recent Wildfires

• U.S. Wildfires Burning 2M Acres Across 11 States Posted August 17, 2012
• Wildfires Destroy Homes, Large Areas Across the West Posted August 14, 2012

Related Links

• U.S. Disaster Impact Leaps 24 Folds Posted August 1, 2012
• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!

Drought – Recent Links

• U.S. Disaster Areas Expand as Drought Deepens Posted August 1, 2012
• Extreme and Exceptional Drought Spread Across Midwest, South Posted August 2, 2012
• Wildfires Destroy Oklahoma Town Posted August 5, 2012

• Watching Events Unfold, Frame by Frame, Exactly as Forecast Posted July 20, 2012
• Deadly Heat Continues to Devour U.S. Crops Posted July 19, 2012

• Drought Continues to Plague Two-Thirds of Continental U.S. Posted July 17, 2012
• Largest Ever U.S. Disaster Continues Unfolding July 14, 2012
• Drought 2012 Posted on January 8, 2012
• Drought and deluge 

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Vicksburg, Mississippi Faces Flood Invasion

Water level at Vicksburg 5 inches above the 1927 record of 56.2 feet

The river in Vicksburg is forecast to crest at 57.5 feet, 14.5 feet above flood level,  by Thursday.

About 2.3 million acres of land have already been  inundated in central Mississippi, according to FIRE-EARTH estimates, which are based on the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers data.

An aerial view of the Vicksburg Harbor, which is located on an arm of the Mississippi River at Vicksburg, Mississippi, USA. The harbor is located north of the main part of the city. View is to the west-northwest. Date: 20 April 1999. Source:  The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Siege of a different kind

Vicksburg (pop: 26,410) was the scene of a 47-day Union army siege in 1863 when Major General Ulysses S. Grant’s Union army finally forced its surrender on July 4.

In 1894, Coca-Cola was first bottled in Vicksburg by a local confectioner, Joseph Biedenharn.

Thousands of Mississippi and Louisiana residents have already evacuated, and thousands more will evacuate, as a silent tsunami on moves south through Mississippi and Louisiana.

Upstream, the swollen Mississippi River has already inundated hundreds of homes and millions of acres of farmland across 5 states: (Southern) Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee and Arkansas.

Morganza Floodway Opens – Satellite Image

On May 14, 2011, the U.S. Army Engineers opened the Morganza Floodway to relieve the pressure  along the Mississippi River in Louisiana. A day later, at 11:20 am CDT, ALI on NASA’s EO-1 satellite captured this photo-like  image of the Floodway. Source: NASA-EO. Click Image to enlarge. Download largest image (4 MB, JPEG) 

This aerial photo was taken by the Army Engineers on May 14, shortly after water was released through the floodgates of Morganza Spillway. Source: NASA-EO

Aerial photo was taken by the Army Engineers on May 14, several hours after water was released through the floodgates of Morganza Spillway. Source: The Army Engineers.

Key Details (from previous posts)

• Army Engineers Quote of the Day: “It’s a historic day, not only for the entire Mississippi River, but for the state of Louisiana.” ~ Corps spokesman Col Ed Fleming.
• The Mississippi and its tributaries have extensively flooded large areas upstream
• At least 3 million acres of cropland in Mississippi, Tennessee and Arkansas have already been inundated as the tsunami of floodwaters on the Mississippi raged south.
• The Morganza Spillway is located 45 miles NW Baton Rouge.
• Morganza Floodway was Built in 1954 to relieve flood pressure on Mississippi River
• The giant structure is 20 miles long, with 125 gates which could release up to 600,000 cubic feet of water per second (cfps) or 17,000,000 liters/sec
• A single gate releases about 10,000 cfpc
• Raging Mississippi River forced Morganza floodgate to be opened for the first time since 1973.
• About 25,000 people and more than 10,000 buildings may be affected by intentional flooding.
• About 3,000 sq miles of low-lying swamp and cropland are expected to be submerged under up to 20 ft of floodwater for several weeks
• Army Engineers say if the spillway was not opened, New Orleans could be inundated by 20ft of floodwater.
• Morganza was the third of the Mississippi River floodways to be opened this month (the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway and the Bonnet Carre Spillway were opened earlier in May.)
• “Today’s the first day in the history of our nation that we have had three floodways open.” Col Fleming said.
• Today’s the first major alarm day in our history that we were forced to have three floodways opened simultaneously: FIRE-EARTH
• Louisiana’s Cajun country is expected to be inundated by up to 20ft as  floodwater moves south.

• A video of the opening of the Morganza Floodway is posted online here.

Morganza Floodway Travel Times

Click image to enlarge. Click HERE to view the original size. Source: The Army Corps of Engineers. [Note:  The image is dated May 12, 2011. The travel times should be adjusted accordingly]

Potential Inundation Map (Scenario 1a)

Click image to enlarge. Click HERE to view the original size. Source: The Army Corps of Engineers. [See inset for details.]

Related Links

• Louisiana Braces as Morganza Floodway Opens Posted on May 15, 2011
• Mississippi River Flooding: Morganza Floodway to open Saturday
• Mississippi River breaks flood record at Natchez Posted on May 12, 2011

• More Severe Thunderstorms, Rain and Flash Flooding
• Flooding in Memphis – Update May 10
• Mississippi River Flooding: Disaster in Slow Motion
• Epic Flooding Could Inundate Large Parts of the U-S  Posted on February 10, 2011
• The Day Before Washington’s Birthday   Posted on February 20, 2011

Global Mega Disasters

• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2010 Disasters [Includes Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters: 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Louisiana Braces as Morganza Floodway Opens

Mississippi River Genie Out of  Spillway?

Floodwater rising upstream in Vicksburg neighborhoods at 2 ft per hr

Army Engineers opened one of the 125 floodgates at the Morganza Spillway 45 miles NW of Baton Rouge on Saturday, inundating nearby fields.

About 3,000 sq miles of low-lying swamp and cropland are expected to be submerged under up to 20 ft of floodwater released through the spillway.

Morganza Floodway moments after one of its 125 floodgates were opened on Saturday. Frame grab from an official (?) video.

Mississippi River Floodways

Source: Mississippi River Commission Map

Key Details:

• Army Engineers Quote of the Day: “It’s a historic day, not only for the entire Mississippi River, but for the state of Louisiana.” ~ Corps spokesman Col Ed Fleming.
• The Mississippi and its tributaries have extensively flooded large areas upstream
• At least 3 million acres of cropland in Mississippi, Tennessee and Arkansas have already been inundated as the tsunami of floodwaters on the Mississippi raged south.
• The Morganza Spillway is located 45 miles NW Baton Rouge.
• Morganza Floodway was Built in 1954 to relieve flood pressure on Mississippi River
• The giant structure is 20 miles long, with 125 gates which could release up to 600,000 cubic feet of water per second (cfps) or 17,000,000 liters/sec
• A single gate releases about 10,000 cfpc
• Raging Mississippi River forced Morganza floodgate to be opened for the first time since 1973.
• About 25,000 people and more than 10,000 buildings may be affected by intentional flooding.
• About 3,000 sq miles of low-lying swamp and cropland are expected to be submerged under up to 20 ft of floodwater for several weeks
• Army Engineers say if the spillway was not opened, New Orleans could be inundated by 20ft of floodwater.
• Morganza was the third of the Mississippi River floodways to be opened this month (the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway and the Bonnet Carre Spillway were opened earlier in May.)
• “Today’s the first day in the history of our nation that we have had three floodways open.” Col Fleming said.
• Today’s the first major alarm day in our history that we were forced to have three floodways opened simultaneously: FIRE-EARTH
• Louisiana’s Cajun country is expected to be inundated by up to 20ft as  floodwater moves south.

Related Links

• Mississippi River Flooding: Morganza Floodway to open Saturday
• Mississippi River breaks flood record at Natchez Posted on May 12, 2011

• More Severe Thunderstorms, Rain and Flash Flooding
• Flooding in Memphis – Update May 10
• Mississippi River Flooding: Disaster in Slow Motion
• Epic Flooding Could Inundate Large Parts of the U-S  Posted on February 10, 2011
• The Day Before Washington’s Birthday   Posted on February 20, 2011

Global Mega Disasters

• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2010 Disasters [Includes Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters: 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Mississippi River Flooding: Morganza Floodway to open Saturday

From a source of life to … in 150 years

Engineers to open key floodway to avert flooding in Baton Rouge and New Orleans

Louisiana state officials have confirmed that the Army Engineers would open the Morganza Spillway by early Saturday evening (CDT), a report said.

The move is intended to avert flooding in Louisiana’s two largest cities, Baton Rouge and New Orleans; however, it could inundate  many thousands of homes and large tracts of crops.

Flooding in Atchafalaya basin is expected to exceed20 feet, affecting about 25,000 people, more than 10,000 buildings and up to 20,000 acres of cropland.

Mississippi River

The largest river in North America, the Mississippi River flows 2,340 mi (3,765 km) from its source at Lake Itasca in the Minnesota North Woods, through the midcontinental United States, the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Plain, and the Louisiana Delta. “’Mississippi’ is an Ojibwa (Chippewa) word meaning great river or gathering of waters—an appropriate name because the river basin, or watershed, extends from the Allegheny Mountains in the eastern United States to the Rocky Mountains, including all or parts of 31 states and 2 Canadian provinces. The river basin measures 1.85 million mi² (4.76 million km²), covering about 40 percent of the United States and about one-eighth of North America.” Mississippi River has the world’s third largest watershed area and seventh average discharge rate. Source: USGS

Morganza Spillway – Satellite Images

Flooded Morganza Spillway.  May5, 1973. Click image to enlarge. Download largest image (2 MB, JPEG)

False color images using near-infrared, red, and green wavelengths. The top image taken by Landsat 1;  bottom image from Landsat 2.  Source: NASA-EO

Morganza Spillway area Sans flooding, 1977. Click image to enlarge. Download largest image (2 MB, JPEG)

Atchafalaya River is forecast to  crest at between 12 and 13 feet at Morgan City on May 23,  if the floodway is opened, breaking a previous record crest  10.6 feet, which was in 1973, a report said.

“They’ve still not officially made a decision on whether or when they will open the spillway, but the Corps of Engineers did tell me today that there are at 1.423 million cubic feet per second at Red River Landing and they are likely to get to 1.5 (million cubic feet) by [Saturday] evening and they will operate that system so that they will not allow that flow to exceed 1.5 through the Baton Rouge area,” Jindal said.

“The decision to open the Morganza Floodway relies on current and projected river flows and levee conditions, river currents and potential effects on navigation and revetments, extended rain and stage forecasts, and the duration of high river stages. When river flows at the Red River Landing are predicted to reach 1.5 million cubic feet per second and rising, the Corps considers opening the Morganza Floodway.” The Army Corps said.  The Army Engineers said the flow rates were 1.449 million cubic feet per second at 7:00am CDT on Friday, May 13, 2011.

Mississippi River Commission Map

Click images to enlarge.

Lower Mississippi Valley Division and  Mississippi River Commission Map

Mississippi River Floodways

 Morganza Floodway

Morganza floodway as a substitute for the East Atchafalaya floodway that was originally planned for in the 1928 Flood Control Act. Governed by a 3,900-foot long and a 125-bay intake structure, the floodway is designed to divert 600,000 cfs from the Mississippi River during the project design flood. The Morganza floodway is operated when the Mississippi River flows below Morganza are projected to exceed 1,500,000 cfs, thereby assuring that flows between Morganza and Bonnet Carré remain at or below 1,500,000 cfs. The Morganza floodway, completed in 1953, has only been operated during the 1973 flood. Source: The MR & T Flooways Project – Mississippi River Commission 1973 .

Estimated Cost of Damage: $5billion [FIRE-EARTH estimate, as of posting]

Related Links

• Mississippi River breaks flood record at Natchez Posted on May 12, 2011

• More Severe Thunderstorms, Rain and Flash Flooding
• Flooding in Memphis – Update May 10
• Mississippi River Flooding: Disaster in Slow Motion
• Epic Flooding Could Inundate Large Parts of the U-S  Posted on February 10, 2011
• The Day Before Washington’s Birthday   Posted on February 20, 2011

Global Mega Disasters

• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2010 Disasters [Includes Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters: 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Image of the Day: While You Were Away …

NO: A Ghost Town

A copy of The Times-Picayune is displayed on a deserted downtown street after the evacuation of New Orleans, prior to the arrival of Hurricane Gustav, August 31, 2008. REUTERS/ Mark Wallheiser. Image may be subject to copyright.

Related Links:

• Ghost towns
• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities

TS Gustav Update 29-8

Update 30-8: Gustav Now a Category Four Hurricane, as Forecast

Gustav is coming, and Big Hannah, too!

More on ‘Big Hannah’ later.

Gustav: The Early US Impact

• Gustav could make landfall in the US anywhere from Texas to Florida by early next week.
• New Orleans is planning a possible mandatory evacuation. [Hurricane Katrina struck the city August 28, 2005]
• Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has declared a state of emergency and activated the National Guard.

Gustav Death Toll as of 03:00 UTC – Aug 29, 2008

• Haiti: 51 people died from storm-related incidents since Tuesday.
• Dominican Republic: At least eight more deaths were reported after Gustav struck.

TS Gustav is seen moving over Jamaica [near bottom right corner] in this mildly out of focus satellite image. Meanwhile Fay, “born” August 15, is till raining on the U.S., now over the Mid-Atlantic section [top center.] In the bottom left a system may be forming (low/medium probability) over the Bay of Campeche.  Credit: NOAA/NASA GOES Project.

TS Hannah follows Gustav. 1. A large tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure system is producing limited shower activity about midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. 2. A well-defined tropical wave is located along the west coast of Africa. This system is showing signs of organization, and some gradual  development is possible over the next couple of days as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph. Image and caption: NOAA/NWS

Hurricane Highlights from NHC [TS Gustav Advisory No 17]

• Hurricane warnings remain in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. [A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.]

• A hurricane watch remains in effect for western Cuba, for the Provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, la Habana and Ciudad de la Habana.  [A hurricane watch means that hurricane Conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 36 hours.]

• A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Cuban province of Granma.

• A tropical storm watch remain in effect for the Cuban province of Matanzas.

• At 3:00 am UTC the center of TS Gustav was located near latitude 17.8 north, longitude 77.3 west, about 55 km west-southwest of Kingston Jamaica and about 445 km east-southeast of Grand Cayman.

• Gustav is moving toward the west at 11 km/hr.  A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is forecast during the next 48 hours.  On this track, the center of Gustav will pass near or over western Jamaica in the next few hours, move near or over the Cayman Islands Friday, and approach western Cuba on Saturday.

• Maximum sustained winds are near 110 km/hr (70 mph) with higher Gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Gustav is expected to become a Hurricane Friday.

• Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 75 km from the center.

• Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).

• Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels can be expected in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning Area.

• Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25 inches possible.  These rains will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible over southern Cuba.  Rainfall will be diminishing over Haiti tonight, but anadditional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is still possible.  —Forecaster Beven