Posts Tagged ‘Ocean SST’
Posted by feww on November 24, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 23 November 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.5ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 1.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average across much of the equatorial Pacific and more than 2.0°C above average between 180°and 140°W. [Expanding across the Tropical Pacific. FEWW ]
[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
[SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, positive equatorial SST anomalies persisted across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
- During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies increased in some regions across the eastern half of the Pacific.
Upper-Ocean Conditions in the Eq. Pacific
- The basin-wide equatorial upper ocean (0-300 m) heat content is greatestprior to and during the early stages of a Pacific warm (El Niño) episode (compare top 2 panels) and leastprior to and during the early stages of a cold(La Niña) episode.
- The slope of the oceanic thermocline is least (greatest) during warm (cold) episodes.
- Recent values of the upper-ocean heat anomalies (positive) and the thermocline slope index (negative) reflect El Niño.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
- During late September –mid November 2009, temperature anomalies at thermocline depth increased and expanded eastward across the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, in response to the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.
- The most recent period shows a continued eastward expansion of positive anomalies in the equatorial Pacific near 50 -150m depth.
Tropical OLR and Wind Anomalies During the Last 30 Days
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Day
Click image to enlarge.
Intraseasonal Variability
- Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.
- Related to this activity
- significant weakening of the low-level easterly winds usually initiates an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave.
- Several Kelvin waves have occurred during the last year (see next slide).
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) are at least 1.0ºC-2.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue to strengthen and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño, El Niño latest news, El Niño update, El Niño weekly report, ENSO | Tagged: australia, eastern Pacific, equatorial Pacific Ocean, equatorial SSTs, Global SST anomalies, Indian Ocean SST, Indonesia, Negative OLR anomalies, North Pacific Ocean, Ocean SST, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Pacific Ocean, Papua New Guinea, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, Tropical Pacific SST, western tropical pacific ocean, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 22, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 19 October 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 1.2ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.9ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.0ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 140°W and in small areas in the eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (°C)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics.
Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
for the Last Four Weeks•During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies strengthened across the central Pacific Ocean.•During the last month, equatorial SST anomalies decreased over parts of the eastern Pacific and increased over the central Pacific.
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During mid August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over the central U.S., which contributed to below-average temperatures in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average. Recently, an anomalous ridge has developed in the Gulf of Alaska with a downstream trough contributing to below-average temperatures across much of the U.S. and Canada.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
- The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to greater than +2.0°C), but a majority indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 15 Oct 2009).
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 18 October 2009
The CFS ensemble mean predicts El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in australia, Climate Prediction, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Indonesia, Malaysia, Oceanic Kelvin waves, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, western tropical pacific ocean | Tagged: Canada, El Niño, ENSO, Gulf of Alaska, Indian Ocean, North Pacific Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, positive OLR, Positive SST, suppressed convection and precipitation, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on October 6, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 5 Oct 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.6ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ -0.3ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Highlights
SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across parts of the central and eastern Pacific.
Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and mid-latitudes.
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, SST anomalies remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last month, SST anomalies decreased over the eastern equatorial SST.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During early August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over thecentral U.S., which contributed to cooling in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average.
The most recent ONI value (July –September 2009) is +0.8oC.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates:
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño conditions, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Oceanic Kelvin waves | Tagged: El Niño, ENSO, Equatorial Pacific, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, Sub-Surface Temperature Departures, Tropical Pacific, wind anomaly | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on September 15, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 14 Sept 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.9ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.8ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) – Recent Evolution
Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have increased in some areas of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last month, the change in equatorial SST
Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-average from mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.
Weekly Heat Content Evolution in the Equatorial Pacific
1. During September 2008 –January 2009, negative heat content anomalies returned and then strengthened in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as La Niña conditions redeveloped.
2. The negative anomalies weakened during January-March 2009, with anomalies becoming positive since late March.
In April 2009, the combined effects of an oceanic Kelvin wave and weaker easterly trade winds contributed to an increase in the upper-ocean heat content anomalies across the Pacific Ocean.
Since April 2009, heat content anomalies have remained above-average.
3. Recently, the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave has shifted eastward.
Oceanic Kelvin waves have alternating warm and cold phases. The warm phase is indicated by dashed lines. Down-welling and warming occur in the leading portion of a Kelvin wave, and up-welling and cooling occur in the trailing portion.
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 13 September 2009
El Niño will last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5ºC above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA.
For additional information see following links.
Relate Links:
El Niño Updates
Posted in Climate Prediction, El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean, Global SST anomalies, Oceanic Kelvin waves | Tagged: El Niño, ENSO, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST, wind anomaly | 3 Comments »
Posted by feww on September 1, 2009
Special Issue with the EN Doubters in Mind!
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 31 August 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 0.9ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.9ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 1.0ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.8ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) – Recent Evolution
Global SST Departures
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes.
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks:
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C above average near the Date Line and in the eastern Pacific.
Weekly SST Departures for the Last Four Weeks
- During the last four weeks, SST anomalies have increased in some areas of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- During the last month, the change in equatorial SST anomalies was slightly positive.
Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The heat content was previously below-averagefrom mid-August 2008 through March 2009, with a minimum reached in late December 2008.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific
- During early July through late August 2009, positive sub-surface temperature anomalies weakened in the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean. Meanwhile, positive anomalies in the western Pacific have shifted eastward.
- The most recent period (below) shows positive anomalies across the equatorial Pacific, with the largest anomalies near 125m depth in the central Pacific.
Weekly Heat Content Evolution in the Equatorial Pacific
- During September 2008 –January 2009, negative heat content anomalies returned and then strengthened in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific as La Niña conditions redeveloped.
- The negative anomalies weakened during January-March 2009, with anomalies becoming positive since late March.
- In April 2009, the combined effects of an oceanic Kelvin wave and weaker easterly trade winds contributed to an increase in the upper-ocean heat content anomalies across the Pacific Ocean.
- Since April 2009, heat content anomalies have remained above-average.
- Recently, the downwelling phase of a Kelvin wave has shifted eastward.
Outgoing LongwaveRadiation (OLR) Anomalies
From February 2007-May 2009, convection has been suppressed across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean. Convection has occasionally been enhanced over the western equatorial Pacific and central Indian Ocean. Since mid-May 2009, convection has remained mostly suppressed over the eastern Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. During July 2009, convection was enhanced near the Date Line and over the western Pacific.
Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
- Most ENSO models indicate El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
- The models disagree on the eventual strength of El Niño (SST anomalies ranging from +0.5°C to +2.0°C), but a majority of the models indicate at least a moderate strength El Niño (greater than +1.0°C) during November-December-January 2009-10.
Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 18 Aug 2009).
Summary
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
Typical US Temperature, Precipitation and Jet Stream Patterns during El Niño Winters
All images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/ NCEP/ NOAA.
See El Niño Home Page for previous entries and related links.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates
Posted in El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean. ENSO, Global SST anomalies, Indian Monsoon, wind anomaly | Tagged: El Niño, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on August 18, 2009
ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
The following UPDATE is prepared by
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP – 17 August 2009
The latest weekly SST departures are:
- Niño 4 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 3.4 ~ 0.7ºC
- Niño 3 ~ 0.9ºC
- Niño 1+2 ~ 0.5ºC
El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]
Niño Region SST Departures (ºC) – Recent Evolution
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least 0.5°C above-average across the Pacific Ocean and at least 1.0°C [0.9°C] above average in the east-central and eastern Pacific.
Summary:
- El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Sea surface temperatures (SST) remain +0.5 to +1.5 above-average across much of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
- Current observations and dynamical model forecasts indicate El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.
See El Niño Home Page for previous entries and related links.
Related Links:
El Niño Updates
Posted in El Niño weekly report, equatorial Pacific Ocean. ENSO, Global SST anomalies, Indian Monsoon, wind anomaly | Tagged: El Niño, Indian Ocean, Ocean SST, Pacific Ocean, Positive SST | Leave a Comment »
Fire Earth 