FEWW Volcanic Forecast
On April 21, 2009 in Sumatra’s Mt Kerinci Erupts FEWW made the following forecast
FEWW Volcanic Forecast:
1. The Loyalty – New Hebrides Arc Collision. Intense volcanic activity should be expected throughout 2009 and beyond along the New Hebrides arc, the Vanatu region (also to the north to include Solomon Island and Santa Cruz Island), possibly continued along the New Hebrides Trench (to include Matthew and Hunter Island). Volcanoes that are located in the above-described area include:
- Savo (Solomon Island)
- Tinakula (Santa Cruz Island – SW Pacific)
- Suretamatai
- Motlav
- Gaua
- Mere Lava
- Aoba
- Ambrym
- Lopevi
- Kuwae
- North Vate
- Traitor’s Head
- Yasur
- Eastern Gemini Seamount
- Matthew Island
- Hunter Island
2. Pacific Plate subduction beneath the Okhotsk Plate. Subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the Okhotsk Plate continues to create Intense volcanism. Starting 2009, however, a much greaterthan the average number of volcanoes located on the Kuril Islands island arc, Kamchatka volcanic arc and Japan trench to the south may erupt with renewed intensity.
And the following on June 5, 2009, having first introduced Mt Kaba earlier on Weekly Volcano Watch: 16 April 2009
FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast:
FEWW Moderators forecast new volcanic activity/ unrest at 50 or more volcanoes throughout the rest of 2009.
List of the volcanoes to watch this year [and in 2010] includes:
Barcena (0.8), Socorro (0.8), Curacoa (0.99), Atitlán (0.65), Vesuvius (>0.6), Bazman (0.6), Mount Shasta (>0.5), Kaba (>0.5), Bandai (>0.5), Eastern Gemini Seamount or Mathew Island volcano (0.65), Fonualei (0.65), Mount Rainier (>0.5), Jan Mayen (>0.6), Thule (0.4), Sibayak (>0.5), Volcán Guallatiri (0.65), Taveuni (>0.4), two or more volcanoes on the island of Hokkaido (0.65), E-san (0.7), Oshima-Oshima (0.7), Komaga-take (0.65)
SI / USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report for 14-20 October 2009 listed both Kaba and Gaua Volcanoes as erupting:
On 13 October, Vanuatu Geohazards Observatory confirmed that Gaua’s Mount Garat was erupting based on fieldwork done by scientists during 3-7 October. Seismic records showed multiple explosions, and a gas flux measurement of 3,000 metric tons of sulfur dioxide was detected on 3 October. The Alert Level was raised to 2 (on a scale of 0-5).
And
On 20 October, CVGHM reported that seismic activity from Kaba increased in August and remained elevated in September and October. Inflation was also detected. When weather permitted, diffuse white plumes were seen rising 25-50 m above the crater rim and drifting E. Based on the deformation and increased seismicity, CVGHN raised the Alert Level to 2 (on a scale of 1-4).
SI /USGS Weekly Volcanic Activity Report
(14 October – 20 October 2009)
New activity/Unrest:
- Chaitén, Southern Chile
- Ebeko, Paramushir Island
- Gaua, Banks Islands (SW Pacific)
- Kaba, Sumatra (Indonesia)
- Kizimen, Eastern Kamchatka
- Kliuchevskoi, Central Kamchatka (Russia)
- Nevado del Huila, Colombia
- Piton de la Fournaise, Reunion Island
- Reventador, Ecuador
- Soufrière Hills, Montserrat
Ongoing Activity:
- Bagana, Bougainville
- Batu Tara, Komba Island (Indonesia)
- Cleveland, Chuginadak Island
- Dukono, Halmahera
- Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka
- Kilauea, Hawaii (USA)
- Rabaul, New Britain
- Sakura-jima, Kyushu
- Sangay, Ecuador
- Shishaldin, Fox Islands
- Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia)
Related Links:
FEWW Volcanic Activity Forecast
Other Related Links:
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