CHILE MEGA EARTHQUAKE WARNING – REVISION 3

REVISED EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
MEGA EARTHQUAKE IN PERU-CHILE TRENCH
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CHILE EARTHQUAKE FORECAST [REV. 3]

FIRE-EARTH Models show a MEGA EARTHQUAKE could strike along Peru-Chile Trench through April 30, 2014.

Some of the quake details have now been revised.

FIRE-EARTH FORECAST: Magnitude 9.4Mw could strike Peru-Chile Trench April 7 – 30, with a probability of 24%.

See below for revised details:

Forecast Earthquake Details

Magnitude: 9.4Mw (Provisional )
Location: 22.7°S, 70.8°W (Provisional )
Depth: 22km (Provisional )
Date/Time: April 7 –  30, 2014 (Peak April 12)
Probability: 24%  (provisional)

Tsunami Forecast

Large, destructive tsunami waves HIGHLY PROBABLE.

Initial forecast for the Mega Quake posted HERE. REV 2 posted HERE.

CAUTION

1. FIRE-EARTH Models used for the above forecast are unique, proprietary tools owned by the blog’s science team. There are NO similar models anywhere on this planet. Any earthquake forecasts that go beyond the traditional “menstruation cycles” are “scholarly” forgeries,  plagiarizing our research.

2. The forecast is subject to change, or withdrawal.

3. See also DISCLAIMER posted HERE.

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Previous FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast for Chile

On March 17, 2014, FIRE-EARTH posted an Earthquake Forecast for Chile, which was immediately hacked. The update was posted at Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile, on the same day, which stated:

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the coming weeks.

Tsunami Forecast: Large tsunami waves highly probable.

Forecast Details for March 17 Chile EQ

• Magnitude: ≥8.2Mw
• Location: 23.6°S, 70.8ºW
• Depth: 30km
• Time: March 17 – April 29, 2014
• Probability of Occurrence: 0.75
• Total Earthquake Energy for the Episode ≥ 0.25EJ

Related Links

• MEGA EARTHQUAKE WARNING – REVISION 2  April 3, 2014
• Two Powefull Aftershocks Rock N Chile Coast April 3, 2014
• Disaster Declared for Chile Quake Zone on April 2, 2014
• M8.2 Strikes Coast of Chile April 2, 2014
• Enhanced Seismicity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench on March 24, 2014
• Significant Seismic Activity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench March 22, 2014
• FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Large Earthquake Could Strike Peru-Chile Trench March 17, 2014
• Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile March 17, 2014
• Intense Seismicity Along Peru-Chile Trench March 16, 2014

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FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts for California and Japan

Due to the reasons explained previously on this blog, FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on California and Japan seismicity.

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MEGA EARTHQUAKE WARNING

WARNING: NEW EARTHQUAKE FORECAST
MEGA EARTHQUAKE IN PERU-CHILE TRENCH
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WARNING: MEGA EARTHQUAKE FORECAST

FIRE-EARTH Models show a MEGA EARTHQUAKE could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the next three weeks.

FIRE-EARTH FORECAST:  Magnitude 9.4Mw Could Strike Peru-Chile Trench in the next three weeks with a probability of 54%.

See below for details:

Forecast Earthquake Details

Magnitude: 9.4Mw (Provisional )
Provisional Location: 17.8°S, 72.1°W (Provisional )
Provisional Depth: 12 km (Provisional )
Date/Time: April 3 – April 30 2014
Probability: 54% (provisional)

Tsunami Forecast

Large, destructive tsunami waves HIGHLY PROBABLE.

CAUTION

1. FIRE-EARTH Models used for the above forecast are unique, proprietary tools owned by the blog’s science team. There are NO similar models anywhere on this planet. Any earthquake forecasts that go beyond the traditional “menstruation cycles” are “scholarly” forgeries,  plagiarizing our research.

2. The forecast is subject to change, or withdrawal.

3. See also DISCLAIMER posted HERE.

.

Previous FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast for Chile

On March 17, 2014, FIRE-EARTH posted an Earthquake Forecast for Chile, which was immediately hacked. The update was posted at Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile, on the same day, which stated:

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the coming weeks.

Tsunami Forecast: Large tsunami waves highly probable.

Forecast Details

• Magnitude: ≥8.2Mw
• Location: 23.6°S, 70.8ºW
• Depth: 30km
• Time: March 17 – April 29, 2014
• Probability of Occurrence: 0.75
• Total Earthquake Energy for the Episode ≥ 0.25EJ

Related Links

• Two Powefull Aftershocks Rock N Chile Coast April 3, 2014
• Disaster Declared for Chile Quake Zone on April 2, 2014
• M8.2 Strikes Coast of Chile April 2, 2014
• Enhanced Seismicity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench on March 24, 2014
• Significant Seismic Activity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench March 22, 2014
• FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Large Earthquake Could Strike Peru-Chile Trench March 17, 2014
• Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile March 17, 2014
• Intense Seismicity Along Peru-Chile Trench March 16, 2014

 

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FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecasts for California and Japan

Due to the reasons explained previously on this blog, FIRE-EARTH Science Team has suspended its research on California and Japan seismicity.

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Enhanced Seismicity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench

SEISMIC HAZARD
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More aftershocks hit coastal N Chile

Most significant aftershocks to strike near Iquique, Chile in the past 24 hours include

• M5.3 (19.744°S, 70.811°W) about 89km WNW of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-23  at 20:23:03UTC, at a depth of 23.4 km
• M6.0 (19.905°S, 70.934°W) about 87km NW of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-24 at 18:20:03 UTC, at a depth of 34.6 km

At least 9 other aftershocks measuring 4.4Mw or greater struck the area as of 2014-03-24 8:54:41 UTC.

Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP

FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast for Chile (March 17, 2014)

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the coming weeks.

Tsunami Forecast: Large tsunami waves highly probable.

Forecast Details

• Magnitude: ≥8.2Mw
• Location: 23.6°S, 70.8ºW
• Depth: 30km
• Time: March 17 – April 29, 2014
• Probability of Occurrence: 0.75
• Total Earthquake Energy for the Episode ≥ 0.25EJ

See also

• Significant Seismic Activity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench March 22, 2014
• FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Large Earthquake Could Strike Peru-Chile Trench March 17, 2014
• Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile March 17, 2014
• Intense Seismicity Along Peru-Chile Trench March 16, 2014

Significant Seismic Activity Continues Along Peru-Chile Trench

SEISMIC HAZARD
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Significant aftershocks hit Peru, Chile coastal areas

At least 6 significant shocks/aftershocks occurred along the Peru-Chile Trench in the past 24 hours, as of posting. The events include a magnitude 6.2Mw which struck about 96km (60mi) WNW of Iquique, Chile (19.770°S, 70.936°W) at a depth of 15.2km, according to USGS/EHP.

List of the Latest Events along Peru-Chile Trench

• M5.0, 89km WNW of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-22 14:15:38 UTC at a depth of 22.6 km
• M5.5, 100km WNW of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-22 13:29:57 UTC at a depth of 10.0 km
• M5.2, 83km NW of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-22 22:14:57 UTC at a depth of 8.2 km
• M6.2, 96km WNW of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-22 21:59:58 UTC at a depth of 15.2 km
• M4.6, 14km NNW of Putre, Chile 2014-03-22 14:56:05 UTC at a depth of 125.6 km
• 5.0 16km WSW of Sechura, Peru 2014-03-22 09:38:46 UTC+09:00 40.9 km

Earthquake Location Map (Mag 4.5+ past 24-hrs).  Source: USGS/EHP

Earthquake Location Map (Mag 2.5+ past 7 days).  Source: USGS/EHP

Recent Seismicity

List of the Recent Events in the Peru-Chile Trench (March 16 -17)

• 5.0Mw 82km WNW of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-17  05:19:34UTC  Depth 12.0 km
• 6.2Mw 80km WNW of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-17  05:11:34UTC  Depth 17.0 km
• 4.8Mw 18km W of Tacna, Peru  2014-03-17 04:14:51UTC  Depth 94.5 km
• 4.6Mw 65km WNW of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-17 03:28:21UTC  Depth 10.0 km
• 4.6Mw 88km WNW of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-17 02:05:58UTC  Depth 23.6 km
• 5.2Mw 70km WNW of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-17 01:34:55UTC Depth 10.0 km
• 4.9Mw 65km WNW of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-17 00:55:03UTC  Depth 10.0 km
• 5.1Mw 55km WNW of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-17 00:12:09UTC  Depth 10.0 km
• 4.9Mw 61km W of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-16 23:08:11UTC  Depth 10.0 km
• 4.9Mw 68km SE of Arica, Chile 2014-03-16 22:54:09UTC  Depth 11.9 km
• 4.9Mw 84km WNW of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-16 21:29:35UTC  Depth 10.9 km
• 5.1Mw 36km NNW of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-16 21:26:27UTC Depth 35.0 km
• 6.7Mw 60km WNW of Iquique, Chile 2014-03-16 21:16:30UTC  Depth 20.0 km

FIRE-EARTH Earthquake Forecast for Chile (March 17, 2014)

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake could strike along Peru-Chile Trench in the coming weeks.

Tsunami Forecast: Large tsunami waves highly probable. (Updated March 22, 2013)

Forecast Details

• Magnitude: ≥8.2Mw
• Location: 23.6°S, 70.8ºW
• Depth: 30km
• Time: March 17 – April 29, 2014
• Probability of Occurrence: 0.75
• Total Earthquake Energy for the Episode ≥ 0.25EJ

See also

• FIRE-EARTH Forecast: Large Earthquake Could Strike Peru-Chile Trench March 17, 2014
• Another Significant Aftershock Strikes Coastal Chile March 17, 2014
• Intense Seismicity Along Peru-Chile Trench March 16, 2014

Earthquake, Heavy Rain, Mudslides Strike Peru

Peru Under Siege from Earthquake, Heavy Rain and Mudslides, 3 Killed

Strong quake measuring up to magnitude 6.1 struck inside the Peruvian Amazon rain forest 20 km (10 miles) SSE of Pucallpa, Peru at a depth of about 153 km, on Monday, January 25, 2010 at 22:53 UTC.

As of posting, there were no reports of damage or casualties, however, The tremors were felt in Trujillo, Chimbote, Cerro de Pasco, Huánuco, Lima (capital), Pucallpa, San Ramón. The quake was felt also in Cruzeiro do Sul, Brazil,  a report said.

Heavy Rain and Mudslides

The overflowing Vilcanota and Rio Blanco rivers in the Andean province of Cusco, southeastern Peru, have flooded hundreds of hectares (acres) of corn crop, AFP reported.

Heavy rains have buffeted the region in the past three days, flooding rivers and causing mudslides that killed at least two people and damaged stone walls at Inca sites, associated Press reported.

Meanwhile, heavy rain and mudslides blocked the train route to the ancient Inca citadel of Machu Picchu, stranding about 2,000 tourists, the tourism ministry said.

“Rail is the only means of transportation on the last leg of the trip to Machu Picchu from the ancient Inca capital of Cusco.”AP said.

Elsewhere in the region, the overflowing Yanama river has pinned down trucks and long-distance passenger coaches at the Cusco-Abancay highway. The flooding has damaged or destroyed about  50 homes and also destroyed crops, officials said.

A magnitude 7.9 quake and resulting landslides in Northern Peru killed an estimated 70,000 people and injured up to 150,000 others, leaving half a million homeless.

Earthquake Location map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW.

Peru Earthquake Details:

• Magnitude reported by USGS: 5.8  [EQ magnitude estimated by FEWW: 6.1 Mw]
• Date-Time:
  • Monday, January 25, 2010 at 22:52:47 UTC
  • Monday, January 25, 2010 at 05:52:47 PM at epicenter
• Location: 8.546°S, 74.467°W
• Depth: 153.4 km (95.3 miles)
• Region: CENTRAL PERU
• Distances:
  • 20 km (10 miles) SSE of Pucallpa, Peru
  • 230 km (140 miles) WSW of Cruzeiro do Sul, Acre, Brazil
  • 240 km (150 miles) NE of Huanuco, Peru
  • 485 km (300 miles) NE of LIMA, Peru
• Location Uncertainty: horizontal +/- 7.2 km (4.5 miles); depth +/- 4.3 km (2.7 miles)
• Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
• Event ID: us2010rxcf

Seismic Hazard Map

Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green.  Source: USGS/EHP.

Historic Seismicity [Mag 7 or greater since 1900]

Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green.  Source: USGS/EHP.

Political Map of Peru.

Earthquake Location

Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Click image to enlarge.

Related Links:

• Deadly Landslides in Peru Causes Many Deaths, Injuries [December 2009]
• Magnitude 6.1 quake strikes southern Peru  [July 2009]
  

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Magnitude 6.1 quake strikes southern Peru

A strong magnitude 6.1 earthquake struck southern Peru Sunday

U.S. Geological Survey reported a  magnitude 6.1 earthquake in southern Peru early Sunday. The quake epicenter was located about 60 km NNW of Juliaca, Peru, some 785 km  ESE of the capital city of  Lima.

There were no immediate reports of structural damage or injuries caused by the quake, which struck at a depth of about 200km.

10-degree Map Centered at 15°S,70°W

Earthquake Location. Source: USGS

Earthquake Details:

• Magnitude: 6.1
• Date-Time:
  • Sunday, July 12, 2009 at 06:12:47 UTC
  • Sunday, July 12, 2009 at 01:12:47 AM at epicenter

• Location: 14.990°S, 70.421°W
• Depth:  201.6 km (125.3 miles) set by location program
• Region:  SOUTHERN PERU
• Distances:
  • 60 km (40 miles) NNW of Juliaca, Peru
  • 200 km (125 miles) NE of Arequipa, Peru
  • 230 km (145 miles) SE of Cuzco, Peru
  • 785 km (485 miles) ESE of LIMA, Peru

• Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 7.4 km (4.6 miles); depth fixed by location program
• Parameters NST=263, Nph=263, Dmin=284.6 km, Rmss=1.19 sec, Gp= 29°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8
• Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
• Event ID:  us2009izaj

Other Maps:

Historic Seismicity  (mag 7 and 8+ since 1900)

Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Seismic Hazard Map

Major Tectonic Boundaries: Subduction Zones -purple, Ridges -red and Transform Faults -green

Related Links:

• FEWW Earthquake Links
• Volcanoes
• FEWW Volcano Links