IGOR and JULIA: A Double Act in Atlantic

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IGOR and JULIA Pinwheeling?

Hurricanes IGOR and JULIA Could Engage Pinwheeling, Causing Unprecedented  Destruction Along Their Path

(L-R) IGOR and JULIA Over Atlantic. GOES East RGB Satellite Image. Source NOAA. Click image to update.

Projected Path of Hurricane IGOR. Source: JTWC.  Click image to enlarge.

Most models predict IGOR would be heading north; however, if pinwheeling (Fujiwara Effect) occurs between the two systems, JULIA could force IGOR to move in a westerly  direction toward the Caribbeans or WNWesterly toward the U.S. coast, with a probability of occurrence of about 30%.

Related Links:

Satellite Imagery (GOES 12 Floater/NOAA/SSD)

• Central Atlantic – Infrared
• Central Atlantic – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• Central Atlantic – Water Vapor
• Central Atlantic – Visible
• Central Atlantic – Visible (Colorized)

Loops/ Satellite Animations

• Tropical Atlantic – Visible Loop
• Central Atlantic – Visible Loop

Additional Satellite Images:

• Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery
• Satellite Imagery (FEWW Index Page)

Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15

TOMAS a Cat 3B hurricane, still intensifying; ULUI weakened to a Cat 3C

In the last 24 hours, Cyclone TOMAS has grown into a Cat 3B Hurricane force on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale and is still intensifying.  ULUI has weakened from a super cyclone force to a Cat 3C hurricane in the same period.

A very low probability of increased interaction exists between the two  systems. If the odds were to improve, whereby pinwheeling occurred between the two cyclones, TOMAS could change track, moving westward, then wobbling close to, around, or over the Fiji islands for a much longer period than anticipated.

Cyclone TOMAS. Latest GOES Image as of posting. (GOES Sat. NOAA). Click image to enlarge.

(L to R) Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS. MTSAT Colorized IR Image (NOAA).  Click image to enlarge.

• Animate the above image
  

Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 15 at 00:01UTC

• Position:  15.6S 179.4W
• Max Sustained Winds :  ~ 195km/hr (105 kts)
• Wind Gusts: ~ 240km/hr ( 130 kts)
• Movement: Southwestward
• Forward Speed:  5km/hr (~ 03 kts)
• Location: 500km  (270 NM) NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
• Comment: TOMAS is a Category 3B hurricane on the  FEWW New Hurricane Scale. The cyclone has good radial outflow and is experiencing low vertical wind shear. It is  expected to continue intensifying over the next 36 – 48 hours until it experiences lower ocean heat content and higher vertical wind shear.
• Maximum significant wave height: 9m (27 feet)
• Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon, CIMSS and others.
• Comment: TOMAS is expected to transition to an extratropical system in 96 to 120 hours.

Cyclone TOMAS: Latest forecast track. Source: JTWC. [Nature’s acute geometry, or wishful thinking?]

Cyclone ULUI  (TC 20P) Details on March 15 at 00:01UTC

• Position: 12.9S 159.2E
• Max Sustained Winds:  205 km/hr (~ 110 kts)
• Wind Gusts: 270km/hr (~ 145 kts)
• Movement:  West
• Forward Speed:  ~ 12 km/hr ( 7 kts)
• Location: About 695km (375 NM) WNW of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
• Maximum significant wave height: 10m (30 feet)
• Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon and others.
• Comment: ULUI is expected to start dissipating over water after about 96 to 120 hours.

Cyclone ULUI: Latest projected path.  Source: JTWC.

MTSAT (NOAA) images from NOAA– Click images to enlarge and animate.

MTSAT – IR Image

MTSAT – Colorized IR Image

MTSAT – Visible Image

• Water Vapor Loop

Related Links:

• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?

Typhoon Melor may be heading toward Kanto region, Japan

Barring  a big surprise or last-minute change of heart, typhoon Melor will only briefly enter the Philippines territory late Monday (local time), exiting mostly uneventfully by early Tuesday.

Typhoon Melor. MTSAT Unenhanced Still Image. Time and date as inset. To update and enlarge, click on image. The very slow moving storm Parma to the WNW of Melor loitering in NW Luzon and southern tip of Taiwan region could be dragged back to Luzon, as Melor heads NNW towards Japan. Note Melor’s well-defined eye and its near-perfect symmetry.

Typhoon Melor. MTSAT RGB Still Image. Time and date as inset. To update and enlarge, click on image. [Remember, Earth is NOT flat. :)]

Typhoon Melor. MTSAT Infra Red Short Wave – Still Image. Time and date as inset. To update and enlarge, click on image.

For additional images and animation, visit Satellite Imagery Links Page.

Melor is not expected to impact Philippines directly, but it is controlling the movement of typhoon Parma, which is moving west very slowly as it passes over northern Luzon.

The two typhoons  are interacting, somewhat pinwheeling [“Fujiwhara Effect,”] with Melor packing more powerful winds being the driver, as Parma weakens. In fact, it is possible that Melor could drag Parma back on to Luzon, at least temporarily.

Melor spared Guam and Saipan over the weekend, with NWS in Guam reporting gusts of up to 38 mph and little rain as Melor moved north away from the island Saturday night.

The following information is provided by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

TYPHOON 0918 (Melor) Issued at 00:45 UTC, 5 October 2009

Forecast for 05:00 UTC, 5 October 2009

• Intensity: Very Intense
• Center position:  N18°30′(18.5°),  E136°20′(136.3°)
• Direction and speed of movement: WNW 25km/h(14kt)
• Central pressure: 910hPa
• Maximum wind speed near the center: 198 km/h
• Maximum wind gust speed : 288 km/h
• Area of 50kt (93km/h) winds or more  : 190km (100NM)
• Area of 30kt (56km/h) winds or more: NE560km, SW390km(210NM)

JMA forecast track for Typhoon Melor. Image may be subject to copyright.

Related Links:

• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting
• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana
• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory