EDOUARD MAKES LANDFALL IN TEXAS

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
700 AM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

EDOUARD MAKES LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST

TS Edouard. Infrared Image – Updated every 30 mins. NOAA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SARGENT TEXAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO SARGENT TEXAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND SABINE PASS IN THE MCFADDIN NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE.

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…23 KM/HR …AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION…29.6 N…94.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.

— FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Related Links and More Images:

• TS EDOUARD UPDATE
• Tropical Storm EDOUARD forms in the Gulf of Mexico
• Weather
• Oceanview

TS EDOUARD UPDATE

Latest UPDATE EDOUARD MAKES LANDFALL IN TEXAS

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008

DATA THUS FAR FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD OF EDOUARD IS EXPANDING – WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW IN THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS.

As of 08/04/2008 17:00 CDT, water levels along the Gulf coast from Alabama to Louisiana are elevated between 0.35 ft to 1.25 ft above predicted. Wind gusts up to 35 knots in Louisiana. Water levels along the Texas coast are beginning to rise above predictions. NOAA

THE SYSTEM’S MAXIMUM WINDS HAVEN’T CHANGED MUCH. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB AND THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT.

STRUCTURALLY, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER BANDING AND A FEW SMALL AREAS OF NEW CONVECTION GOING OFF CLOSE TO THE CENTER.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EXPANSION OF THE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.

THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL TAKING EDOUARD TO 69 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH THE SHIPS, LGEM AND SUPERENSEMBLE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

THRESHOLD. [IT’S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A LOW-END HURRICANE.]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6. EDOUARD’S HEADING IS WOBBLING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST. AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS EDOUARD MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW IS SHOWING A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE. AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NEAR AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND HAVE JUST A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN BEFORE. AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

— FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Tropical Storm EDOUARD forms in the Gulf of Mexico

Most of the U.S. offshore oil rigs and the Gulf Coast refineries fall within the predicted path of Edouard

EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
700 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

EDOUARD MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD – HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RGB Enhanced Satellite Image – NOAA

More images:

• Weather
• OceanView
• World Imagery & Current Conditions

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO PORT O’CONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA – GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA – INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES (145 KM) SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 415 MILES (670 KM) EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 4 MPH (6 KM/HR) AND
A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK – THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY – AND BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA OR
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH(85 KM/HR) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS – EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST…TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION…28.1 N…88.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT. — FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Dolly Wreaks Havoc Across South Texas

Dolly dropped up to 12 inches (30 cm) of rain in the first few hours of making landfall

Dolly made landfall on South Padre Island, Texas, about 2 p.m. ET, tearing roofs and observation decks off homes, shattering windows and downing power lines. It flooded the streets and sent about 2,500 residents scrambling for safety from wind gusts of about 150 mph.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry declared 14 counties disaster areas prior to Dolly’s arrival. About 1,500 National Guardsmen have been deployed, according to various news bulletins.

In Northern Mexico, about 20,000 people are expected to be evacuated to government shelters according to Eugenio Hernandez, governor of Tamaulipas, Mexico.

It is unclear why the efforts of a certain “hurricane control” company failed so miserably! </sarc>

A boat is blown into the building by Hurricane Dolly in Port Isabel, Texas July 23, 2008. Hurricane Dolly moved inland after tearing into the south Texas coast on Wednesday with 95 mph (150 kph) winds, pouring torrential rain on the U.S.-Mexico border area and threatening floods. Dolly, the second hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, dropped up to 12 inches (30 cm) of rain in the first few hours after coming ashore at the barrier island of South Padre Island, where it ripped off roofs, bent palm trees in half and left thousands of residents without power. REUTERS/Joe Mitchell (UNITED STATES) Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notice!

HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
5:00 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

THE EYE OF DOLLY MADE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN PADRE ISLAND EARLIER
TODAY AS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY ONE TO CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT LANDFALL
REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB AND WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 80 AND 85 KNOTS. THE EYE IS NOW PARTIALLY INLAND
OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY
INTERACTING WITH LAND…A GRADUAL WEAKENING HAS BEGUN. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED A 75 KNOTS AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS DOLLY MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE INLAND DECAY SHIPS MODEL.

DOLLY BEGAN TO MOVE ON A MORE STEADY NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 7
KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES…THEREFORE…A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT
48 HOURS.

DOLLY IS A LARGE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND CAN CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. – FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane DOLLY QuickLook – Posted: 15:00 CDT 07/23/2008 – NOAA

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
400 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

DOLLY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY…AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER
BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

AT 4 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM BAFFIN BAY
NORTHWARD TO CORPUS CHRISTI HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT O’CONNOR.

AT 4 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE
WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES
80 KM NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/HR). A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WILL BRING DOLLY FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140
KM/HR) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES (220 KM).

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB…28.64 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW BUT WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION…26.6 N…97.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT. – FORECASTER AVILA