Atmospheric CO2 Levels Rose at Record Rate in 2016 –WMO

WMO GREENHOUSE GAS BULLETIN (No. 13) 30 Oct. 2017

‘The State of Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere Based on Global Observations through 2016’

Excerpts from Report’s Executive Summary:

Analysis of observations from the WMO GAW Program shows that globally averaged surface mole fractions calculated for CO₂ , methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) reached new highs in 2016, with

• CO₂ at 403.3 ± 0.1 pp [or 145% pre-industrial – before 1750 – levels.]
• CH₄ at 1 853 ± 2 ppb [257%]
• N₂O at 328.9 ± 0.1 ppb [122%]

The record increase of 3.3 ppm in CO₂ from 2015 to 2016 was larger than the previous record increase, observed from 2012 to 2013, and the average growth rate over the last decade. The increase of CH₄ from 2015 to 2016 was slightly smaller than that observed from 2014 to 2015, but larger than the average over the last decade. The increase of N₂O from 2015 to 2016 was also slightly smaller than that observed from 2014 to 2015 and the average growth rate over the past 10 years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) shows that from 1990 to 2016, radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) increased by 40%, with CO₂ accounting for about 80% of this increase. The WMO GAW Program (http://www.wmo.int/gaw)

Up-to-date weekly average CO₂at Mauna Loa, Hawaii
Week beginning on October 22, 2017: 404.01 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 401.83 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 381.44 ppm
Last updated: October 30, 2017

Full CO₂ record at Mauna Loa

• Analysis and additional information available via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

GHG Concentrations Climbed to New Highs in 2012: WMO

Atmospheric greenhouse gases reached new record levels

Atmospheric concentrations of major greenhouse gases responsible for climate change climbed to new records in 2012, according to WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (No. 9: November 2013) released by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO).

Levels of CO₂, the primary greenhouse gas produced by human activities, grew by 2.2 ppm, higher the average of 2.02 ppm over the past decade. At 393.1 parts per million (ppm), the 2012 CO₂ concentrations were 41 percent above the pre-industrial level.

The latest analysis of observations from the WMO Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme shows that the globally averaged mole fractions of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) reached new highs in 2012, with CO₂ at 393.1±0.1 ppm, CH₄ at 1819±1 ppb and N₂O at 325.1±0.1 ppb. These values constitute, respectively, 141%, 260% and 120% of pre-industrial (before 1750) levels. The atmospheric increase of CO₂ from 2011 to 2012 is higher than the average growth rate over the past 10 years. For N₂O the increase from 2011 to 2012 is smaller than the one observed from 2010 to 2011 but larger than the average growth rate over the past 10 years. Atmospheric CH₄ continued to increase at a rate similar to the one observed over the past 4 years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Annual Greenhouse Gas Index shows that from 1990 to 2012 radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases increased by 32%, with CO₂ accounting for about 80% of this increase.

This ninth WMO/GAW Annual GHG Bulletin reports atmospheric abundances and rates of change of the most
important long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) – carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide – and provides a summary of the contributions of the other gases. These three together with CFC-12 and CFC-11 account for approximately 96% of radiative forcing due to LLGHGs.

The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) in 2012 was 1.32, representing a 32% increase in total radiative forcing (relative to 1750) by all LLGHGs since 1990 and a 1.2% increase from 2011 to 2012 (Figure 1). The total radiative forcing by all LLGHGs in 2012 corresponds to a CO₂-equivalent mole fraction of 475.6 ppm (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi).

 Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the single most important anthropogenic GHG in the atmosphere

Carbon dioxide is the single most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, contributing ~64%  to radiative forcing by LLGHGs. It is responsible for ~84% of the increase in radiative forcing over the past decade and ~82% over the past five years. The pre-industrial level of ~278 ppm represented a balance of fluxes between the atmosphere, the oceans and the biosphere. Atmospheric CO₂ reached 141% of the pre-industrial level in 2012, primarily because of emissions from combustion of fossil fuels (fossil fuel CO₂ emissions 9.5±0.5 PgC in 2011, according to http://www.globalcarbonproject.org), deforestation and other land-use change (0.9±0.5 PgC in 2011). The average increase in atmospheric CO₂ from pre-industrial time corresponds to ~55% of the CO₂ emitted by fossil fuel combustion with the remaining ~45% removed by the oceans and the terrestrial biosphere.

CO₂ Global Average

The globally averaged CO2 mole fraction in 2012 was 393.1±0.1 ppm. The mean annual increase from 2011 to 2012, 2.2 ppm, is greater than the increase from 2010 to 2011, the average growth rate for the 1990s (~1.5 ppm/yr) and the average growth rate for the past decade (~2.0 ppm/yr).

Global average abundances of the major, well-mixed, long-lived greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFC-12 and CFC-11 – from the NOAA global air sampling network are plotted since the beginning of 1979. These gases account for about 96% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750. The remaining 4% is contributed by an assortment of 15 minor halogenated gases including HCFC-22 and HFC-134a. Source: ESRL/NOAA

Methane (CH4) – THe Second Major Contributor

Methane contributes ~18% to radiative forcing by LLGHGs. Approximately 40% of methane is emitted into the atmosphere by natural sources (e.g., wetlands and termites), and about 60% comes from anthropogenic sources (e.g., ruminants, rice agriculture, fossil fuel exploitation, landfills and biomass burning). Atmospheric CH₄ reached 260% of the pre-industrial level (~700 ppb) due to increased emissions from anthropogenic sources. Globally averaged CH₄ reached a new high of 1819 ± 1 ppb in 2012, an increase of 6 ppb with respect to the previous year (Figure 4). The growth rate of CH₄ decreased from ~13 ppb/yr during the early 1980s to near zero during 1999-2006. Since 2007, atmospheric CH₄ has been increasing again due to increased emissions in the tropical and mid-latitude
Northern Hemisphere. The attribution of this increase to anthropogenic and natural sources is difficult because the current network is insufficient to characterize emissions by region and source process.

Nitrous oxide (N₂O )

Nitrous oxide contributes ~6% to radiative forcing by LLGHGs. It is the third most important contributor to the combined forcing. N₂O is emitted into the atmosphere from both natural (about 60%) and anthropogenic sources (approximately 40%), including oceans, soil, biomass burning, fertilizer use, and various industrial processes. The globally averaged N₂O mole fraction in 2012 reached 325.1 ±0.1 ppb, which is 0.9 ppb above the previous year and 120% of the pre-industrial level (270 ppb). The annual increase from 2011 to 2012 is greater than the mean growth rate over the past 10 years (0.80 ppb/yr).

Radiative forcing, relative to 1750, of all the long-lived greenhouse gases. The NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), which is indexed to 1 for the year 1990, is shown on the right axis.  Of the five long-lived greenhouse gases that contribute 96% to radiative climate forcing, CO₂ and N₂O are the only ones that continue to increase at a regular rate. Radiative forcing from CH₄ increased from 2007 to 2012 after remaining nearly constant from 1999 to 2006. While the radiative forcing of the long-lived, well-mixed greenhouse gases increased 32% from 1990 to 2012 (by ~0.69 watts m^-2), CO₂ has accounted for nearly 80% of this increase (~0.55 watts m^-2). Source: ESRL/NOAA

Recent Global CO₂

• August 2013:     393.11 ppm
• August 2012:     389.82 ppm

Up-to-date weekly average CO₂ at Mauna Loa

• Week beginning on October 27, 2013:     394.20 ppm
• Weekly value from 1 year ago:     391.32 ppm
• Weekly value from 10 years ago:     373.39 ppm

Related Links

• Weekly Average CO2 at Mauna Loa Tops 400ppm June 4, 2013
• CO2 Tops 400ppm at Mauna Loa as Forecast May 11, 2013
• Sudden Surges in Atmospheric CO2: FIRE-EARTH Forecast July 23, 2013
• 400 PPM April 3, 2013

Atmospheric GHG Break Record

Concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached record high in 2010: WMO

The atmospheric GHG rose faster in 2010 than the decadal average.

Disaster Calendar 2011 – November 21

[November 21, 2011]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,577 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Global Mega Disasters. The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached record high in 2010, according to WMO. The atmospheric GHG rose faster in 2010 than the decadal average.
• Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration has risen by 39 percent to 389 parts per million (ppm) since 1750.
• Methane (CH4) concentration has climbed by 158 percent since 1750 to a record high of 1,808 parts per billion(ppb), and up by 5 ppb since 2009.
• Nitrous oxide (N2O) levels were 20 percent higher at 323.2ppb   than the pre-industrial era.
• According to the latest Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, the seventh in the series that began in 2004, there has been a 29 percent rise in radiative forcing from greenhouse gases between 1990 and 2010.
• The atmospheric CO2 rose by 2.3ppm in 2010 compared to 2.0ppm in the previous year and the annual average of 1.5 ppm in the 1990s.
• “The atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases due to human activities has yet again reached record levels since pre-industrial time,” said WMO Secretary-General.
• “Even if we managed to halt our greenhouse gas emissions today, and this is far from the case, they would continue to linger in the atmosphere for decades to come and so continue to affect the delicate balance of our living planet and our climate,” he added.

Recent monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites. Source: NOAA

Weekly average CO₂ at Mauna Loa

• Week of November 13, 2011:     390.32 ppm
• Weekly value from 1 year ago:     388.40 ppm
• Weekly value from 10 years ago:     369.79 ppm

Related Links

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities  (EDRO Forecast)
• 2011 Much More Disastrous: FIRE-EARTH Forecast
• Global Disasters in 2011 Could Impact 1/3 to 1/2 of the Human Population  (FIRE-EARTH Forecast)
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs  (FIRE-EARTH Forecast)

• 2010 Disaster Calendar 
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

GHG Concentration at Record Level: WMO

Brief History of Mankind

Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at record levels: the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

The average mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) reached record level in 2009,WMO reported.

• CO2 concentrations ~ 386.8 ppm
• CH4 ~ 1,803 ppb
• N2O ~ 322.5 ppb

These values are greater than the corresponding atmospheric concentrations in pre-industrial times (~1750) by 38%, 158% and 19%, respectively.

In the twenty year period between 1990 and 2009, the combined radiative forcing—the balance between atmosphere’s incoming and outgoing radiation—for all persistent greenhouse gases increased by 27.5%, with CO2 accounting for about 80% of the increase, according to the NOAA Annual Greenhouse Gas Index.

Source: WMO GHG Bulletin

Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Carbon dioxide is the single most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, contributing 63.54 %2 to the overall global radiative forcing. It is responsible for 85% of the increase in radiative forcing over the past decade and 83% over the last five years. For about 10 000 years before the industrial revolution, the atmospheric abundance of CO2 was nearly constant at ~ 280 ppm (ppm = number of molecules of the gas per million molecules of dry air). This level represented a balance among the atmosphere, the oceans and the biosphere. Since 1750, atmospheric CO2 has increased by 38%, primarily because of emissions from combustion of fossil fuels (8.7 Gt carbon in 2008, http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/), deforestation and landuse change. High-precision measurements of atmospheric CO2 beginning in 1958 show that the average increase in CO2 in the atmosphere (airborne fraction) corresponds to ~ 55% of the CO2 emitted by fossil fuel combustion. WMO

Source: WMO GHG Bulletin

Related Links:

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• House Passes Emissions Bill
• New York Cognitive Dissonance
• World CO2 Emissions [2007 / 2008]
• Carbon Footprint of Your Dollar
• The Billionaires’ contribution to CO2 pollution

• CO2e