Disaster Declared for 15 New York Counties

DO NOT underestimate the destructive power of fast-moving water: Governor Cuomo!

Torrential rains have triggered widespread flooding and large-scale mudslides damaging houses and businesses, closing roads and forcing people to flee their homes in New York’s Mohawk Valley.

Governor Cuomo has issued a disaster declaration for 15 New York counties that have been hit by severe storms and widespread flooding. The counties are  Broome, Chenango, Clinton, Delaware, Essex, Franklin, Herkimer, Madison, Montgomery, Oneida, Otsego, Tioga, Schoharie, St. Lawrence and Warren. Additionally, local states of emergency have been declared for the following areas:

• Village of Ilion, Herkimer County
• Town of Chesterfield, Essex County
• Town & Village of Middleburgh, Schoharie County
• Herkimer County
• Town and Village of Herkimer, Herkimer County
• Village of Mohawk, Herkimer County
• Town of Elizabethtown, Essex County
• Town of Johnsburg, Warren County
• Village of Sherburne, Chenango County
• Montgomery County
• Town of Minden, Montgomery County
• Town of Whitesboro, Oneida County
• Town of German Flats, Herkimer County

Meantime, more rain has been forecast for the region, with the possibility  there of more flooding in additional areas.

Flooding in the Mohawk River, New York. Photo shows the flooding in the city of Oneida. For more images click SOURCE.

Alerts and notifications available at NY Alert’s website: www.nyalert.gov

-oOo-

Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events

Beijing Air Pollution Off the Chart Again

The Air Quality Index in the Chinese capital zoomed into and above the “Hazardous” territory again late Friday, hitting the 529 mark.  The index fell back to 193, or “Unhealthy” as of posting.

Image source: http://aqicn.org

-oOo-

Disaster Declared for Mineral County, Colo., as Papoose Fire Explodes

Mineral County has been declared a disaster area, due to the uncontrolled, fast-moving Papoose Fire.

“The Papoose Fire, southwest of Creede, made a significant run to the north Thursday afternoon, growing from approximately 2,000 acres to more than 11,000 acres [~34,000 acres as of posting.] It is burning near the Road Canyon Reservoir and 30-Mile Campground, while threatening subdivisions in the area,” said a report.

The 34,000-acre blaze is also causing concern because it is moving toward the Rio Grande Reservoir dam, an important water source for the San Luis Valley, the report said. Meantime, the towns of Del Norte, South Fork and Wagon Wheel Gap have been evacuated.

The West Fork Complex Fire, which includes the Papoose Fire, had grown to more than 90,000 acres with 2% contained as of 8:00 am, June 28, 2013, according to Inciweb.

Smoke monitors are in place in Del Norte and Creede. For the official Colorado Smoke Outlook visit http://www.colorado.gov/airquality/colo_advisory.aspx and http://www.colorado.gov/airquality/wildfire.aspx for further health advisory information.

West Fork Complex Fire, located about 14.5 miles north/northeast of Pagosa Springs, CO, was sparked by lightning on June 5, 2013. Image source: Inciweb. 

-oOo-

Hazard Mapping System Fire and Smoke for Continental America

Significant Smoke-producing Fires

-oOo-

Extreme Rain Events Pound China

Emergency Warnings in 9 Chinese provinces as record rains batter central and south China

Extreme rain events have dumped between 50 and 100mm of rain across nine provinces in central and south China, with 34 monitoring stations reporting record rainfalls.

• “Authorities have issued emergency warnings. Forecasters say it is rare to see such strong rains in May,” said a report.

• Forecasters have warned that up to 200mm of rain could swamp Hunan, Jiangxi and Guangdong provinces and Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, triggering floods and landslides.

  -oOo-

Cold, Snow, Rain Buffet Vermont

More than 19cm (7½ in) of snow fell on Mount Mansfield in Stowe by early Sunday, as a winter storm moved across the region.

• Other significant snowfall reported in Walden (6 in), and Marshfield and Greensboro (4 in), NWS said.

• Meantime, NWS issued Flood Watches across most of Vermont, and Flood Warnings in northern portion of the state.

Related Links

• How Homo Ignarus Killed Spring March 21, 2013
• Mass Die-off: Diseased Carcasses Removed by Truckload May 26, 2013

  -oOo-

Namibia: No Grazing, No Water for Livestock

The worsening drought in Namibia has decimated most of the available grazing across the country, said a report.

“According to farmers in the Northern Communal Areas (NCAs) the situation is getting worse by the day and grazing in areas that farmers thought would save them is gradually decreasing. To worsen matters farmers do not have water for their livestock.”

The Namibian President declared a national drought emergency earlier this month.

  -oOo-

DISASTER CALENDAR – May 27, 2013 — 
SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,020 Days Left 

Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

• SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,020 Days Left to ‘Worst Day’ in the brief Human  History
• The countdown began on May 15, 2011 …

GLOBAL WARNINGS

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID PLANETARY DECLINE IN PROGRESS!
• Europe: The First Phase of Collapse Has Started 
• United States: The First Phase of Collapse Has Begun

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

More Severe Thunderstorms, Rain and Flash Flooding

BREAKING:

• A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the Texas Panhandle until 11 AM this morning.  

• Active weather period in store for most of United States through Wednesday

Weather Forecast Map

Click images to enlarge.

GOES Eastern US SECTOR Infrared Image

Fire Weather Outlook

From:   2011 Disaster Calendar – MAY 

• Day 496 [May 11, 2011]
• Tennessee, USA. The White House has declared Shelby and  14 other Tennessee counties disaster areas following the damage caused by rising Mississippi River and extreme weather events that have buffeted the region since mid April, reports say.
•  Minnesota , USA. The White House has declared 20 counties in both the Red River Valley and southern Minnesota federal disaster areas because of widespread flooding and severe  storms in March that wreaked havoc in the state, a report said.
• Missouri, USA. The White House has declared five Missouri counties major disaster areas, following devastation from tornadoes, storms and flooding. “Property owners who’ve gone into the Mississippi River Floodway say the situation is bad.” Said a report.

Related Links

• Flooding in Memphis – Update May 10

• Mississippi River Flooding: Disaster in Slow Motion
• Epic Flooding Could Inundate Large Parts of the U-S  Posted on February 10, 2011
• The Day Before Washington’s Birthday   Posted on February 20, 2011

Global Mega Disasters

• 2011 Much More Disastrous
• 2010 Disasters [Includes Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters: 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• 2011 Disaster Calendar

Sinkholes Swallow Cars?

Serial No  1,521. If any of the posts on this blog  is blocked in your country, please drop us a line.

Image of the Day:

Rain, flooding, again, and sinkholes

A massive sinkhole opened in City of Fall River, Massachusetts, as a result of a storm and heavy rain which triggered record-breaking deluge. Photo Credit: Jonathan Wiggs/Globe Staff. Image may be subject to copyright. For more images click here.

Related Links:

• US East Coast Inundated by Major Flooding
• A Dry Run for Climate Chaos Heading Our Way
• Global Weather Chaos

US Daily Streamflow Conditions

Map of monthly-average streamflow for the month of year

Map of real-time streamflow compared to historical streamflow for the day of the year (United States)

Daily Streamflow Conditions – Stream gage levels in The United States, relative to 30 year average.

Source: WaterWatch, USGS

Annual Water Data Reports:

• 2008 Water Year
• 2007 Water Year
• 2006 Water Year
• Water Years Prior to 2006

• Visit the Water-Data Report Mapper

• 2005 Water Year

Oklahoma Drought

Cropland and Prairie, Cimarron County, Oklahoma

In the second week of August 2008, the western Oklahoma Panhandle got just enough rain to ease the region’s drought status from “exceptional” to “extreme“ according to the U.S. Drought Monitor report from August 12. The area had been suffering through a drought since fall 2007; in terms of dryness, the year rivaled conditions the area faced during the Dust Bowl years.

As of early August, the Oklahoma panhandle was experiencing its driest year (previous 365 days) since 1921, according to records kept by the Oklahoma Climatological Survey. Through July, year-to-date precipitation in Boise City, in the heart of Cimarron County, was only about 4.8 inches, barely half of average and drier than some years in the 1930s, the height of the Dust Bowl.

These maps show how vegetation conditions compared to average during 16-day periods in July 2007 and June/July 2008. Green indicates more vegetation than the 2000-2006 average, brown is less vegetation than normal, and beige indicates that vegetation conditions were average.

NASA images by Jesse Allen and Robert Simmon, based on MODIS data from the Global Agricultural Monitoring Project. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey.

The scattered August rains may be responsible for some of the vegetation patterns recorded by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA’s Terra satellite in this image from August 14, 2008. The image uses a combination of visible and infrared light to enhance the appearance of vegetation, which looks red. Places where vegetation is dead or dormant are shades of beige to gray. Very reflective surfaces, such as roads and dry creek beds are off-white. The small farming towns of Boise City and Keyes are separated by a patchwork of geometric fields.

The most robust vegetation occurs in fields with center-pivot irrigation, usually corn in this part of Oklahoma, but sometimes milo, sorghum for livestock feed, or cotton, according to Cherri Brown, district conservationist for the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service in Boise City. The other circular fields could be residue from harvested crops, but they could also be places where crops have succumbed to drought. Most of the rectangular fields are being prepared for seeding of wheat or are planted with milo and sorghum feed crops. Many of the fields are streaked or marbled with bright, sandy-looking patches. Narrow, straight lines may be cultivation patterns, but the more blotchy-looking areas may be places where the death of vegetation has allowed the region’s sandy soils to blow and drift.

In the first half of 2008, an exceptional drought descended on the High Plains, centered on Cimarron County, Oklahoma. This map shows the extent of drought in the continental United States on July 22, 2008. (Map by Robert Simmon, based on data from the U.S. Drought Monitor.)

North of the cropland, the landscape transitions to prairie, much of which is used as grazing land. The health of vegetation on these lands is variable. In places, the landscape is gray and brown, indicating dead or dormant grasses. But across some areas, there is a faint tinge of red, indicating some plants are surviving the drought. These variations could be due to a combination of patchy rainfall, topography, and soils.

To learn more about the region’s drought, please read the feature story Devastating Drought Settles on the High Plains.

• References
• U.S. Drought Mitigation Center. (2008, August 12). National Drought Summary—August 12, 2008. Accessed August 18, 2008.

NASA image created by Jesse Allen, using data provided courtesy of NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey.

EDOUARD MAKES LANDFALL IN TEXAS

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
700 AM CDT TUE AUG 05 2008

EDOUARD MAKES LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST

TS Edouard. Infrared Image – Updated every 30 mins. NOAA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SARGENT TEXAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO SARGENT TEXAS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT…1200Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 94.2 WEST. THIS POSITION IS ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND SABINE PASS IN THE MCFADDIN NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE.

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…23 KM/HR …AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH…100 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES…110 KM FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB…29.44 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS TODAY.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION…29.6 N…94.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.

— FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Related Links and More Images:

• TS EDOUARD UPDATE
• Tropical Storm EDOUARD forms in the Gulf of Mexico
• Weather
• Oceanview

TS EDOUARD UPDATE

Latest UPDATE EDOUARD MAKES LANDFALL IN TEXAS

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008

DATA THUS FAR FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD OF EDOUARD IS EXPANDING – WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW IN THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS.

As of 08/04/2008 17:00 CDT, water levels along the Gulf coast from Alabama to Louisiana are elevated between 0.35 ft to 1.25 ft above predicted. Wind gusts up to 35 knots in Louisiana. Water levels along the Texas coast are beginning to rise above predictions. NOAA

THE SYSTEM’S MAXIMUM WINDS HAVEN’T CHANGED MUCH. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB AND THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT.

STRUCTURALLY, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER BANDING AND A FEW SMALL AREAS OF NEW CONVECTION GOING OFF CLOSE TO THE CENTER.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EXPANSION OF THE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.

THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL TAKING EDOUARD TO 69 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH THE SHIPS, LGEM AND SUPERENSEMBLE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

THRESHOLD. [IT’S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A LOW-END HURRICANE.]

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6. EDOUARD’S HEADING IS WOBBLING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST. AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS EDOUARD MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW IS SHOWING A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE. AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NEAR AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND HAVE JUST A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN BEFORE. AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

— FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Tropical Storm EDOUARD forms in the Gulf of Mexico

Most of the U.S. offshore oil rigs and the Gulf Coast refineries fall within the predicted path of Edouard

EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
700 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

EDOUARD MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD – HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RGB Enhanced Satellite Image – NOAA

More images:

• Weather
• OceanView
• World Imagery & Current Conditions

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO PORT O’CONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA – GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA – INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES (145 KM) SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 415 MILES (670 KM) EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 4 MPH (6 KM/HR) AND
A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK – THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY – AND BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA OR
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH(85 KM/HR) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS – EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).

STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST…TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION…28.1 N…88.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT. — FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Dolly’s Climaxed!

Having dumped about 12 inches of rain within hours of coming ashore as a category 2 hurricane at South Padre Island on Wednesday causing widespread flooding in S. Texas and N. Mexico, Dolly’s is finally reduced to a tropical depression.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
400 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008

DOLLY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION – STILL DUMPING HEAVY RAINS

AT 400 PM CDT…2100Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST OR ABOUT
35 MILES…55 KM SOUTH OF EAGLE PASS TEXAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…23
KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DOLLY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION…28.2 N…100.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON DOLLY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER…UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT4
KWNH…BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT. – FORECASTER AVILA

Related Links:

• National Weather Warnings
• Thought for the Day
• 2008: Year of the Fire
• Will 2008 be year of the tornadoes, too?
• 2008: Year of the Expected Unknowns!

Dolly, Now A Hurricane, Heads Towards S. Texas

July 23 Late Update >> Dolly Moves Further Inland Over Southern Texas

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (purple). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. (NOAA)

BULLETIN: HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

DOLLY BECOMES A HURRICANE: THE SECOND OF THE 2008 HURRICANE SEASON

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI…AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

Hurricane Dolly – RGB Enhanced Satellite Image – NOAA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT…2100Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH…LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES…
265 KM…EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH…120
KM/HR…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE
LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES…30 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES…260 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS
986 MB…29.12 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES…WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES…OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS…ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES…CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTS.

NOAA satellite image taken on July 22, 2008. (UPI Photo/NOAA Handout)

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION…24.6 N…95.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT. – FORECASTER AVILA

Related Links:

• Hurricane DOLLY Public Advisory Number 10
• UPDATE: TS DOLLY, CRISTOBAL & Hurricane Fausto
  
• Thought for the Day

.

Stop Nature! She Is Ruining Our Lifestyles

Wildfires are an indispensable tool in Nature’s cycle-of-life toolbox. But … the fires must not be allowed to burn naturally.

If nature can’t provide us with enough rain when we need to put the fires out, or cleanse the air so that the smug doesn’t choke our kids, why should we let her go on?

Having reached the peak of Freudian Assault Against Nature Syndrome, there are only two courses of action available to humanoids:

See Main Entry: Nature Must Be Punished, Look at the Mess California!

Related Links:

• California Inferno Rages On
• The problem is they don’t understand the fires in California!

• Images of the Day: California Fires
• Lightning Safety Awareness Week: June 22-28

• A Few Extreme Events Away

• 2008: Year of the Fire
• Raging Wildfires: Mother Nature ensuring the cycle of life?

• Nature’s Defense Mechanisms

What’s a Hydrokong?

A Shrinking World Series

Is it a mega-tropical storm system, or an extra-tropical cyclone (ETC), i.e., a non-tropical, large-scale low pressure storm system like a Nor’easter?

“Hydrokong” is a colossal atmospheric phenomenon. It’s an extreme precipitation event which is enhanced by circulation changes that increase and concentrate the distribution of water vapor.

Hydrokong! The Storm System as it appeared over the central United States June 12, 2008 04:15 UTC. The still image is an aviation color enhancement of a satellite image.

Globally, as total precipitation increases, the duration or frequency of precipitation events decreases. However, warmer temperatures and regional variation can significantly affect those offsetting behaviors. For example, reduced total precipitation in one region, the Western United States, can significantly increase the intensity of precipitation in another region, the Midwest. Hydrokongs essentially create two extreme events, droughts in one region and flooding caused by mega-intense precipitation in another. As the global temperatures rise, more hydrokongs should be expected.

Another Hydrokong in the making? A new System as it appeared over the central United States June 27, 2008 04:15 UTC. The still image is an aviation color enhancement of a satellite image.

An aviation color enhancement of a floater [updated periodically] satellite image GEOS Eastern U.S. Imagery, NOAA SSD. For full size image right-click on the image and select “View Image.”

In the words of Brian Pierce, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service, describing the aftermath of flooding last week: “We are seeing a historic hydrological event taking place with unprecedented river levels occurring.”

Are Extreme Precipitation Events Earth’s Natural Defense Mechanisms?

Related Links:

• Nature’s Defense Mechanisms
• www.crh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php [Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service!]
  

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China “Frankenstein”

Nature Angry About Beijing Olympics?

China competes with Venice

Residents row boats along a flooded street in the township of Yuecheng in Deqing county, west of Guangdong Province, June 18, 2008. REUTERS/Aly Song. Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notice!

Here’s what the China “Frankenstein” looks like:

Hundreds of troops, police and rescue workers are shoring up dams which might burst under torrential rain that has already flooded an area of about 24,000 square kilometers, including homes, businesses and farmlands.

The damage:

• Floods have killed about 180 people so far in Guangdong
• Another 60 people are missing
• More rain is expected in the annual flood season
• Six reservoirs are in “danger of bursting” in southern Guangxi region
• About 1.7 million people have been evacuated in nine southern provinces since the start of the flood season earlier this month.
• Floodwater has collapsed about 150,000 homes,
• About 2.4 million hectares (~ 6 million acres) of crops have been damaged or destroyed
• The mounting economic losses already exceed $4 billion

All of this comes in addition to the soaring food prices the have already plagued China, record snowstorms last winter and, of course, the Sichuan earthquake which killed about 70,000 people and left five million homeless. Serious danger of epidemics in the soaring summer temperatures looms.

Droughts, floods and other human-enhanced disasters throughout China are nothing new, of course, but their frequency and intensity this year are alarming experts.

The biggest disaster yet to strike China in 2008 may prove to be a major drought causing water shortages throughout the country later in the summer.

It’s as if nature is mad at China: Drop the Olympics, or have your annual quota of H2O now!

Related Links:

• China rushes to fix dams as 9,000 sq miles flooded
• China earthquake: Teacher left students behind as he ran to safety

• Why Didn’t China Prevent the Loss of 86,000 Lives?
• The Anguished Cries of China Quake Nurse
• Chinese paratroopers rescuing survivors or preventing plague?
• How Many More Survivors?
• Heavy Death Toll, Corruption, Criminal Incompetence
• Why Was the Girl Removed from Family?

• Chinese Leaders Incapable of Handling Quake Aftermath
• Bigger China Disaster Unfolds

• China’s grieving quake parents start to voice anger
• Beijing’s quick response to disaster won’t cover cracks of corruption
• Almost five million left homeless, China says
• Corruption blamed for rising death toll in China
• Parents’ grief turns to anger at shoddily built deathtrap schools

• Earthquake Predictions In China Are Also Political

More Links:

• China “quake lake” fears force new evacuation
• Swelling China lakes a danger 2 weeks after quake
• Big aftershock causes more misery in China

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Tornado Kills 4 Scouts

A Shrinking World Series

Deadly twister kills 4, injures 48

A deadly twister, one of about 30 that hovered over four U.S. Midwestern states Wednesday, hit the Little Sioux Scout Ranch in western Iowa , where dozens of scouts were gathered for a “Pohuk Pride” training, killing four people and injuring about 40 others.

“We still have a threat of tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging wind gusts,” said a Storm Prediction Center meteorologist.

GOES Eastern U.S. Imagery Showing the Storm System Over the Central United States

An aviation color enhancement of a floater satellite image [this image is updated periodically.] GEOS Eastern U.S. Imagery, NOAA SSD.

The Storm System as it appeared over the central United States June 12, 2008 04:15 UTC. The still image is an aviation color enhancement of a satellite image.

Related Links:

• US Tornado Brief
• Deadly Storms Hit US Midsection
• Tornado kills four at Iowa boy scout camp

• Deadly Storms Hit US Midsection
• Powerful storms kill 8 in Iowa and Minnesota
• Will 2008 be year of the tornadoes, too?
• 2008: Year of the Fire

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