FIRE-EARTH Alert: 2016 Warmest Year on Record

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FIRE-EARTH Models Show 2016 Warmest Year on Record (99.8% Certainty)

• Details are available from FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

 

FIRE-EARTH Alert: Warmest 5 Years on Record

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2011 to 2015 the Warmest Years on Record: WMO

• The five years from 2011 to 2015 were the warmest on record, with temperatures higher  one degrees Celsius (1.8 °F) above pre-industrial times, according to data released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
• The burning of fossil fuels increased the probability of extreme weather events including heat by at least a factor of 10, says WMO.
• 2016 will likely set a new record for warmest year.
• The last five-year period beat 2006-2010 as the warmest such period since records began about 150 years ago.

• Details of the Alert are available from FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.

 

Ten Billion-Dollar Plus Weather, Climate Disasters Hit U.S. in 2015

Record December elevated 2015 to 2^nd warmest year for US 48  —NOAA

The 2015 annual average U.S. temperature was 54.4°F (12.4°C), 2.4°F above the 20^th century average, the second warmest year on record.

• Warmest year for U.S. was  2012  with an average temperature of 55.3°F.
• 2015 was the 19^th consecutive year the annual average temperature exceeded the 20^th century average.

The average contiguous U.S. precipitation was 34.47 inches (87.55cm), 4.53 inches above average, and ranked as the third wettest year in the 121-year period of record.

• Only 1973 and 1983 were wetter.
• The national drought footprint shrank about 10 percent last year.

Ten weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each occurred  across the United States in 2015. These events included

• Drought (1 event)
• Flooding (2)
• Severe storms (5)
• Wildfire (1)
• Winter Storm (1)

The 1980–2015 annual average is 5.2 events (CPI-adjusted); the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2011–2015) is 10.8 events (CPI-adjusted), said NCDC/NOAA.

Additionally, the U.S. experienced five distinct disaster event types in 2015. It is more common to observe three or four disaster event types in a given year. Five or more disaster event types exceeding $1 billion in the same year occurs less frequently (i.e., 2015, 2011, 2008, 1998, 1994 and 1989).

U.S. climate highlights: 2015

• Florida, Montana, Oregon and Washington were record warm.
• Alaska, California, and Idaho had their second warmest year.
• Twenty-one other states were much warmer than average.
• 14 States were much wetter than average.
• Oklahoma and Texas were record wet for the year, and became drought free for the first time since 2010.
• The U.S. Climate Extremes Index (USCEI) for 2015 was 70 percent above average, ranking as the fourth highest annual USCEI in the 106-year record and highest since 2012.

U.S. climate highlights: December 2015

• December 2015 was record warm for the contiguous U.S., with a temperature of 38.6°F, 6.0°F above the 20^th century average.
  • Previous record of 37.7°F was set in 1939.
  • 29 Eastern states had the warmest December on record.
  • No state was record cold.
• The December precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. was 3.93 inches, 1.58 inches above the 20^th century average, ranking as the wettest December on record.
  • Previous record of 3.76 inches was set in 1982.
  • Above-average precipitation occurred across the country
  • 23 States were much wetter than average.
  • Iowa and Wisconsin had a record wet December.

Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: National Overview for December 2015, published online January 2016, retrieved on January 9, 2016 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201512.

 

2015 Likely Warmest on Record, 2011-2015 Warmest Five Year Period: WMO

Extreme Weather Triggered as Climate Change Breaches Symbolic Thresholds

2015 is on track to be the warmest year on record, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The global average surface temperature in 2015 would likely reach “the symbolic and significant milestone” of 1°C above the pre-industrial era, said WMO.

Also, the last five years (2011-2015) have been the warmest five-year period on record, with many extreme weather events – especially heatwaves – influenced by climate change, according to a WMO five-year analysis.

Bad News for the Planet

“The state of the global climate in 2015 will make history as for a number of reasons,” said WMO Secretary-General. “Levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere reached new highs and in the Northern hemisphere spring 2015 the three-month global average concentration of CO2 crossed the 400 parts per million barrier for the first time. 2015 is likely to be the hottest year on record, with ocean surface temperatures at the highest level since measurements began.  It is probable that the 1°C Celsius threshold will be crossed,” he said. “This is all bad news for the planet.”

Based on data from January to October, the global average surface temperature for 2015 so far was about 0.73 °C above the 1961-1990 average of 14.0°C and approximately 1°C above the pre-industrial 1880-1899 period, said WMO.

Ocean heat and sea level rise

The oceans have been absorbing more than 90% of the energy that has accumulated in the climate system from human emissions of greenhouse gases, resulting in higher temperatures and sea levels. In the first nine months of 2015, global ocean heat content through both the upper 700 meters and 2000 meters of the oceans reached record high levels. The latest estimates of global sea level indicate that the global average sea level in the first half of 2015 was the highest since satellite observations became available in 1993.

Significant warmth was recorded across large areas of the oceans. The Tropical Pacific was much warmer than average, exceeding 1°C over much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The northeast Pacific, much of the Indian Ocean and areas in the north and south Atlantic were significantly warmer than average. Areas to the south of Greenland and in the far southwest Atlantic were significantly colder than average.

Ocean heat content down to a depth of 700m (top) and 2000m (bottom). Three-month (red), annual (black) and 5-year (blue) averages are shown. Source: NOAA/NCEI

Related Links

• The WMO Bulletin on Greenhouse Gas Concentrations is posted here
• October Temperature Breaks Global Record November 19, 2015
• De Facto 2°C Global Climate Target = 2 Inch Hole in the Head  October 9, 2015

Earth’s Fever Continues: Warmest May on Record

Year-to-date also record warm: Report

The globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces for May 2015 was 15.67°C (60.17°F), the highest for the month since record keeping began in 1880. Globally averaged temperature for March–May and the year-to-date (January–May) were also record highs, according to the State of the Climate Report.

• The combined average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces for May was 0.87°C (1.57°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.8°C (58.6°F)—the highest for May in the 136-year period of record, topping the previous record set in 2014 by 0.08°C (0.14°F).

• The globally-averaged sea surface temperature was 0.72°C (1.30°F) above the 20^th century average of 16.3°C (61.3°F)—the highest ever recorded for the month, topping record set in 2014 by 0.07°C (0.13°F).

• The average global temperature across land surfaces was 1.28°C (2.30°F) above the 20^th century average of 11.1°C (52.0°F), tying with 2012 as the highest May temperature on record.

• The average Arctic sea ice extent for May was about 1.89 million km² (730,000 square miles), or 5.5 percent below the 1981–2010 average, making it the third smallest May extent since records began in 1979.  [The smallest sea ice extent occurred in May 2004, when the cover shrank to about 1.82million km² (703,000 square miles,) said the report

• Antarctic sea ice during May was about 1.3 million km² (500,000 square miles), or 12.1 percent above the 1981–2010 average. The May extent was the largest Antarctic sea ice extent on record, exceeding the previous record set in 2014 by about 52,000km² (20,000 square miles).

January – May 2015

• The first five months of 2015 were the warmest such period on record across the world’s land and ocean surfaces, at 0.85°C (1.53°F) above the 20^th century average, surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by 0.09°C (0.16°F).

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for May 2015, published online June 2015, retrieved on June 19, 2015 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201505.

January–April Global Temperature Highest Ever Recorded

Global temperature rises to a new record across land and ocean surfaces: Report

During January–April 2015, the average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 0.80°C (1.44°F) above the 20th century average—the highest for the period since 1880, NCDC reported.

Global highlights: Year-to-date (January–April 2015)

• The January–April globally-averaged land surface temperature was 1.48°C  (2.66°F) above the 20^th century average—the highest for the period since records began in 1880.
• The globally-averaged sea surface temperature for the period was 0.55°C (0.99°F) above the 20^th century average, tying  with 2010 as the second highest for January–April on record, trailing 1998 by 0.04°F (0.02°C).

Global highlights: April 2015

• The April globally-averaged sea surface temperature (SST) was 0.60°C (1.08°F) above the 20th century average—the highest for April ever recorded, said NCDC.
• April’s average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20^th century average, making it the fourth highest for April on record.
• The April globally-averaged land surface temperature was 1.11°C (2.00°F) above the 20^th century average, making it the 10^th highest for April in the 1880–2015 record.

Polar Icecaps

• The average Arctic sea ice extent for April was more than 800,000 square kilometers ( 310,000 square miles) about 5.5 percent below the 1981–2010 average, or the second smallest April extent since records began in 1979, the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) reported. The 2007 April extent was 78,000 square kilometers (30,000 square miles) smaller.
• Antarctic sea ice in April was 1,657,000 square kilometers (640,000 square miles) about 22.4 percent above the 1981–2010 average, making it the largest April Antarctic sea ice extent on record, surpassing the previous record of 2014 by 26,000 square kilometers (10,000 square miles).

Source: NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for April 2015, published online May 2015, retrieved on May 20, 2015 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201504.

Related Links

• Warmest Ever: March and Q1, 2015 April 18, 2015

Warmest Ever: March and Q1, 2015

Record low Arctic sea ice extent for March

Globally averaged temperature over land and ocean surfaces (SST) for March 2015 was the highest for the month since record keeping began 135 years ago. The average temperature was also record high for the first quarter of the year, said the State of the Climate report.

Global Highlights: March 2015

• Globally averaged temperature for land and SST was 1.53°F (0.85°C) above the 20th century average, the highest for March in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record of 2010 by 0.09°F (0.05°C).
  • Globally-averaged land surface temperature was 2.97°F (1.65°C) above  average, tied  with 1990 as the second highest for the month on record.
  • SST was 0.99°F (0.55°C) above average, third highest ever recorded for March (1880–2015).
• The average Arctic sea ice extent for March was 430,000 square miles (7.2 percent) below the 1981–2010 average—the smallest March extent since records began in 1979 (NSIDC).
• Antarctic sea ice during March was 420,000 square miles (24.3 percent) above the 1981–2010 average— second largest March Antarctic sea ice extent on record.
  • The record largest March Antarctic sea ice extent occurred in 2008 and was 100,000 square miles larger than the March 2015 extent. [1 square mile ~ 2.6km²]

March 2015 Selected Climate Anomalies and Events Map (NOAA)

Global highlights: Year-to-date (January–March 2015)

• Globally averaged temperature for land and SST was 1.48°F (0.82°C) above the 20^th century average, the highest for the first quarter in the 1880–2015 record, surpassing the previous record of 2002 by 0.09°F (0.05°C).
• Globally-averaged land surface temperature was 2.86°F (1.59°C) above the 20^th century average, the highest for January–March on record, surpassing the previous record of 2002 by 0.09°F (0.05°C)
• SST for Q1 was 0.95°F (0.53°C) above the 20^th century average, the third highest for January–March in the 1880–2015 record.

NOAA National Climatic Data Center, State of the Climate: Global Analysis for March 2015, published online April 2015, retrieved on April 18, 2015 from http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2015/03.