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Posts Tagged ‘San Francisco Earthquake’

California Earthquake Forecast – Update 3

Posted by feww on September 24, 2009

For background and latest update see:

Up to three earthquakes measuring magnitude 6.2 or greater could strike Western US in 2009

California Earthquake Forecast: UPDATE #3

Magnitude 7.6  to  7.9 earthquake could strike the SF Bay Area, northern California in 2009

FEWW Moderators Forecast a magnitude 7.6 to 7.9  earthquake and two possible aftershocks measuring about 5.5 Mw (subject to the magnitude of the mainshock) for the San Francisco Bay Area, northern California in 2009.

Details of EQ Forecast

  • Magnitude: 7.6 to 7.9 Mw
  • Provisional date:  September 28, 2009
  • Date uncertainty: ~ 90 Days
  • Epicenter: 37° 52′ 20″N, 122° 15′ 10″W
  • Depth: 9.0 km
  • Depth uncertainty: ±2.8 km
  • Location: ~2.88 km (1.79miles ) east of Berkeley Fire Departments: Fire Prevention & Disaster Preparedness (CA 94702).
  • Location uncertainty:
    • Up to 5 km to the west of Hayward Fault
    • Up to 14 km NNW within a 5-km corridor along the Hayward Fault
    • Up to 22 km SSE within a 5-km corridor along the Hayward Fault
  • Probability of of occurrence 0.8 [77%]

Map of Hayward Fault
Map of N California Fault Lines. Source: USGS

Satellite map
Satellite map of forecast epicenter.
Source: Google Maps [See terms of use for copyright information.]

Hayward EQ Forecast
FEWW Bay Area Earthquake Forecast Uncertainty Zone.
Source: Google Earth [See terms of use for copyright information.]

Note: This forecast does NOT preclude the possibility of other seismic events in the area at any time.

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