TC ULUI – 2nd UPDATE – MAR 20

Was it Something We Said?

ULUI Intensifies to a Category 1 Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale,and Intensifying

UPDATE on March 20 at 06:30UTC

• Position: 19.7S, 151.7E
• Max Sustained Winds: 152 km/hr (~ 82 kt)
• Wind Gusts: 200 km/hr (~ 107 kt)
• Movement: WSW (240 degrees)
• Forward Speed: ~ 24 km/hr (13 kt)
• Location: About 515 km EAST (98.5degrees) of Townsville, Australia
• Maximum significant wave height: 9m (27 feet)
• Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.
• Comments: The cyclone’s deep convection has developed much further. Satellite images indicate that ULUI could develop an eye before it strikes the Australian coast.  Warm coastal waters are feeding ULUI and there’s little vertical wind shear to oppose the cyclone from further strengthening. ULUI could potentially intensify into a category 2A [90 percent probability],  a Cat 2B [64 percent probability] or even a Cat 3A [~ 50 percent probability] Hurrine force on FEWW New Hurricane Scale before making a landfall.

• Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has warned that up to 30cm of rain could fall in areas under the projected path of TC ULUI.

Cyclone ULUI IR Satellite image with GFS and CMC forecast tracks superimposed. The track marked in yellow is Fire-Earth Forecast. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible [postcard]  image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 20, 2010 at 05:00UTC.   Source: Digital Typhoon.  Click image to enlarge.

On the Ground …

Meanwhile, Australia’s Queensland prime minister (they have one for each state), Anna Bligh, has declared a disaster zone across the state’s central and northern coast a day ahead of cyclone ULUI arrival.

Bligh declared the Townsville, Burdekin, Whitsunday, Charters Towers, Mackay, Isaac, Rockhampton and Central Highlands as disaster areas, local reports said.

“This declaration is in anticipation that some properties may need to be evacuated in the coming hours as Tropical Cyclone Ului approaches and then crosses the North Queensland coast,” she said.

“The declaration gives Emergency Services agencies the power of mandatory evacuations if required.”

For additional images click on the following links:

• Visible
• Visible Loop
• IR
• IR Loop
• Colorized IR
• Colorized IR loop.
• Water Vapor
• Water vapor loop

How ULUI was born:

• Last 24 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 120 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 240 Hours : MPEG / WMV

ULUI History and Related Links:

• Tropical Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 20

• TC ULUI: Mid-air refueling
• Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 18
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 17

• Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia
• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 16
• Tropical Cyclone TOMAS
• Tropical Cyclone ULUI

• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15
• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Tropical Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 20

SEE LATEST UPDATE AT >> TC ULUI – MAR 20 — 2nd UPDATE

Cyclones in NH: More Character?

TC ULUI has further weakened to a tropical storm with sustained winds of about 105 km/hr

Residents on the east coast of Australia in locations between about 17ºS and 27ºS should already be experiencing moderate to heavy winds accompanied by rain.

Cyclone ULUI  (TC 20P) Details on March 20 at 00:01UTC

• Position: 19.3S 153.8E
• Max Sustained Winds:  105 km/hr (~ 55 kt)
• Wind Gusts: 130 km/hr (~ 70 kt)
• Movement:  SW (225 degrees)
• Forward Speed:  ~ 24 km/hr (13 kt)
• Location: About 900 ESE of Cairns
• Maximum significant wave height: 7m (22 feet)
• Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.
• Comments: The cyclone’s deep convection has developed slightly, though  partially. ULUI is expected to weaken further before reaching ashore in about a day or so, and dissipate within a day thereafter.
• Australia’s own Bureau of Meteorology has warned that up to 30cm of rain could fall in areas under  the projected path of TC ULUI.

Cyclone ULUI Vis/IR Satellite image with GFS forecast track superimposed. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

On the Ground …

Meanwhile, Australia’s Queensland prime minister (they have one for each state), Anna Bligh, has lost her nerve declaring a disaster zone across the state’s central and northern coast a day ahead of cyclone ULUI arrival.

Bligh declared the Townsville, Burdekin, Whitsunday, Charters Towers, Mackay, Isaac, Rockhampton and Central Highlands as disaster areas.

“This declaration is in anticipation that some properties may need to be evacuated in the coming hours as Tropical Cyclone Ului approaches and then crosses the North Queensland coast,” she said.

“The declaration gives Emergency Services agencies the power of mandatory evacuations (!) if required.”

Cyclone ULUI – 1km Visible Image. The center of ULUI appears as a slight depression near 19S, 154E on this image. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible [postcard]  image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 20, 2010 at 00:00UTC.   Source: Digital Typhoon.  Click image to enlarge.

For additional images click on the following links:

• Visible
• Visible Loop
• IR
• IR Loop
• Colorized IR
• Colorized IR loop.
• Water Vapor
• Water vapor loop

How ULUI was born:

• Last 24 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 120 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 240 Hours : MPEG / WMV

ULUI History and Related Links:

• TC ULUI: Mid-air refueling
• Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 18
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 17

• Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia
• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 16
• Tropical Cyclone TOMAS
• Tropical Cyclone ULUI

• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15
• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 19

TC ULUI Still Moving Toward QLD

Cyclone ULUI has slowed down some, but still moving above 20ºS as previously forecast

TC ULUI – Latest Satellite image, as of posting

Cyclone ULUI – 4 km Visible/IR Image. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Wind Shear.  Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Cyclone ULUI  (TC 20P) Details on March 19 at 06:00UTC

• Position: 17.6S 157.1E
• Max Sustained Winds:  120 km/hr (~ 65 kt)
• Wind Gusts: 150 km/hr (~ 80 kt)
• Movement:  SW (225 degrees)
• Forward Speed:  ~ 12 km/hr ( 6 kt)
• Location: About 920 km NE of Rockhampton;  1,090 east of Townsville, Australia; 1,200 E of Cairns
• Maximum significant wave height: 8m (24 feet)
• Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.

Cyclone ULUI – 1km Visible Image with Dynamical Models Superimposed. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

According to the UKM Dynamical Model (see green line in the above image), the cyclone should have disappeared 3 days ago, strike QLD in a straight line two days ago, then completely dissipate by yesterday; however, the satellite images disagree with the model.

Cyclone ULUI: Projected Track.  Source: JTWC. According to this forecast TC ULUI would have to accelerate to speeds of about 22 km/h. Click image to enlarge.

For additional images click on the following links:

• Visible
• Visible Loop
• IR
• IR Loop
• Colorized IR
• Colorized IR loop.
• Water Vapor
• Water vapor loop

ULUI History and Related Links:

• TC ULUI: Mid-air refueling
• Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 18
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 17

• Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia
• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 16
• Tropical Cyclone TOMAS
• Tropical Cyclone ULUI

• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15
• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale