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Posts Tagged ‘sea surface temperatures’

World Sizzling in Hottest Year to Date

Posted by feww on July 16, 2010

Specter of Global Drought Disasters Looming

Global Food Shortages Would Follow

The Planet Can Survive Higher Temperatures; YOU Can’t!

The first six months of 2010 has been the warmest on record so far. The average global temperatures for the first half of the year were 0.03 degree Fahrenheit higher than the previous record set in 1998, according to the National Climatic Data Center.

The El Nino weather pattern was the major driver for the hot temperatures globally, climate scientists say.

“We had an El Nino episode in the early part of the year that’s now faded but that has contributed to the warmth not only in equatorial Pacific but also contributed to anomalously warm global temperatures as well,” said Jay Lawrimore, chief of climate analysis at the National Climatic Data Center.

Although La Nina could bring in cooler temperatures globally later this year, 2010 could still prove to be the hottest year overall since the records began, overtaking 2005 the previous record holder.

“This year the fact that the El Nino episode has ended and is likely to transition into La Nina, which has a cooling influence on the global average temperature, it’s possible that we will not end up with the warmest year as a whole.” Lawrimore said.

Global View

  • The Arctic sea, the ice melted to its thinnest level in June.
  • Britain has seen it driest year in 80 years.
  • Parts of Middle East are  undergoing the most severe drought since records began.
  • Northern Thailand is experiencing the worst drought in living memory.
  • The U.S.: “It’s going to be pretty warm across eastern Nebraska, Iowa, western portions of Missouri, mid to upper 90s (F),” said Donald Keeney, senior agriculture meteorologist with CROPCAST Ag Services.
  • Large temperatures anomalies in most parts of  Africa, Canada and tropical oceans have been registered, a report said.

Land Surface Temperatures, Early July 2010


Global map shows temperature anomalies for July 4–11, 2010, compared to temperatures for the same dates from 2000 to 2008. The anomalies are based on land surface temperatures observed by MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite. Areas with above-average temperatures appear in red and orange, and areas with below-average temperatures appear in shades of blue. Oceans, lakes, and areas with insufficient data (usually because of persistent clouds) appear in gray. Source of Image and caption (edited) NASA E/O. Click image to enlarge. Download large image (3 MB, PNG)

Note from original caption: Because this image shows temperature anomalies rather than absolute temperatures, not all red areas are warmer than all blue areas. Red-hued northern Canada, for instance, is not warmer than blue-hued northern Mexico. Although deep red tones predominate along the mid-Atlantic coast, absolute temperatures are probably warmer in the barely orange American Southwest. Unusually warm conditions predominate in South America, but the Southern Hemisphere is in winter.”

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Posted in climate change fallout, El Niño, Global Food Shortages, Global Temperature, La Niña, Land Surface Temperatures | Tagged: , , , | 5 Comments »

TC Phet, SST and Intercontinental Dust Storms

Posted by feww on June 4, 2010

Tropical Cyclone Phet Could Reorganize Rapidly after Leaving Oman


Cyclone Phet, Water Vapor Image (4-km res)
. Source: CIMSS – Click images to enlarge.


Cyclone Phet, Visible/ IR Image (2-km res)
. Source: CIMSS – Click images to enlarge.

Sea Surface Temperatures Warm Enough for Busy 2010 Hurricane Season


A color-coded image from Japan’s Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite shows sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Atlantic Ocean and part of the Pacific Ocean. Source: NASA E/O

Saharan Dust Blown Across the Atlantic


Photo-like satellite image taken by MODIS on NASA’s Terra satellite during successive orbits and stitched together on June 1, 2010, shows a Saharan dust plume approaching the northeast coast of South America, about 8,000km away.  “Each year, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere winter, storms like the one pictured here deliver about 40 million tons of dust from the Sahara to the Amazon River Basin.” Source: NASA E/O

Posted in 2010 Hurricane Season, Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, dust storm, dust storm in India, Dust storms, environment | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

El Niño event almost certain: BOM

Posted by feww on July 1, 2009

El Niño event likely, says Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology

More evidence of a developing El Niño event has emerged during the past fortnight, and computer forecasts show there’s very little chance of the development stalling or reversing. —BOM

Equatorial sea-surface temperatures are currently more than 1°C above normal in the eastern Pacific, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) remains below zero at around −2, says BOM.

A sustained negative SOI is often associated with El Nino conditions.

BOM hopes to provide a clear picture of the situation in the Pacific by next week when their final June data are analyzed.

El Niño events are usually (but not always) associated with below normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia.

Another adverse sign for southeastern Australian rainfall is the recent trend to positive values in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as measured by the Dipole Mode Index (DMI).

The next BOM update is available on July 8, 2009.

Last month FEWW reported US Climate Prediction Center as saying that conditions were favorable for a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions during June – August 2009.

sst_wind_home_5day
Click image to update and enlarge.


Images from Tropical Atmospheric Ocean project: NOAA

Summary of BOM Weekly Update:

  • The Pacific Ocean sea surface is currently significantly warmer than the long-term average across most of the tropical Pacific, especially central to eastern areas.
  • A large amount of the sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific is also warmer than the long-term average, particularly in the east.
  • The latest 30-day SOI value is −2, while the monthly value for May was −5.
  • Trade winds remain weaker than normal across the central equatorial Pacific.
  • Cloudiness near the date-line is near-normal, and is yet to show a consistent trend towards El Niño conditions.
  • All international climate models predict the tropical Pacific to continue to warm and to be above El Niño thresholds throughout most of the second half of 2009.

“Australia is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and its grain production is still recovering from the worst drought in more than 100 years that reduced the 2006/07 crop to just 10.6 million tonnes and the 2007/08 crop to 13.0 million tonnes.” Reuters reported.

FEWW Moderators estimate that a new episode of El Niño, which would have devastating impact globally, could cause up to $500 billion in damages.

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See also comments section for latest updates.


Posted in Australian drought, Australian rainfall, drought and deluge, Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Oscillation Index | Tagged: , , , , | 2 Comments »