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Posts Tagged ‘Spent Fuel Pool’

80 Percent Chance of Major Catastrophe at Fukushima NPP

Posted by feww on November 7, 2013


Scale of potential catastrophe at Fukushima could dwarf a limited nuclear war

Four major factors would contribute to the probability of a major nuclear catastrophe occurring at Fukushima NPP during the fuel rods extraction operations at the plant’s No.4 reactor. —FIRE-EARTH Assessment

1. Probability of  significant earthquakes causing further damage to the reactor building during the recovery cycle: P≥ 0.9

2. Record of disastrous errors by the operator, TEPCO, especially after the 2011 Mega quake and tsunami struck: P≥ 0.9

3. State of fuel rods after the building was damaged by a hydrogen explosion in March 2011: UNKNOWN

4. Suitability of the  new “common pool” used for cooling the fuel rods: UNKNOWN

Based on the two known factors alone, the probability of a major catastrophe can be calculated at ≥ 0.81 [rounded down to eighty percent. ]

Fuel rod extraction process is scheduled to begin tomorrow, November 8, 2013, and would take about 14 months to complete, according to the operator.

The Spent Fuel Pool (SFP) at No. 4 reactor located on the upper floor of the building contains 1,533 units, includes 1,331 spent fuel units still emitting high levels of radiation, with the remaining units being unused fuel rods. The Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) is about to extract and relocate the rods.

TEPCO says removal of the fuels rods, which are currently in a precarious state due to an explosion in the reactor building caused by hydrogen buildup in 2011, is the first step in the decommissioning of the nuclear plant which has so far been subject to triple meltdowns.

fukushima NO4 pool
The Spent Fuel Pool (SFP) at No. 4 reactor located on the upper floor of the building. Image shows debris scattered over spent fuel assemblies at the reactor’s storage pool as a result of a large explosion caused by buildup of hydrogen in the reactor building in March 2011. The explosion may have damaged some of the fuel rods, and cause them to fuse together. Image source: Handout – Tokyo Electric Company (TEPCO).

FIRE-EARTH has a 100% record of forecasting disasters at Fukushima NPP. See blog content.

More details to follow…

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