Fire Earth

Earth is fighting to stay alive. Mass dieoffs, triggered by anthropogenic assault and fallout of planetary defense systems offsetting the impact, could begin anytime!

Posts Tagged ‘storm surge’


Posted by feww on October 10, 2018

FIRE-EARTH Science will issue regular updates at 15-min intervals via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.


MICHAEL is currently a Cat. 4Ag hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

LOCATION: 28.3N, 86.5W





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Posted by feww on October 10, 2018

FIRE-EARTH Science will issue regular updates at 30-min intervals via FIRE-EARTH PULSARS.


MICHAEL is currently a cat. 3Cg hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

LOCATION: 27.1N 86.5W





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Tropical Cyclone STAN: Red Alert Issued in WA

Posted by feww on January 30, 2016

Destructive winds, storm surges, flooding threaten towns as cyclone approaches Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone STAN threatens northwest Pilbara region in Western Australia (WA) with potentially destructive wind gusts and heavy rain when the system makes landfall early on Sunday morning.

  • The storm, currently a category 2 system, is forecast to intensify to category three cyclone before landfall.
  • Red alert has been issued for coastal communities between Port Hedland and Wallal, including Pardoo, Eighty Mile and Wallal.
  •  Storm surges may pose additional threats of damaging waves and dangerous flooding due to the tide, said Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).


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What Happened in Latin America Last May?

Posted by feww on January 15, 2016

“Unusual phenomenon” produces destructive waves, storm surge

An unusual phenomenon between 2 and 4 May 2015 produced two-meter-high waves on the Pacific Ocean side of Latin America, killing a number of people, forcing scores of people to flee their homes and destroying or damaging buildings,  roads and infrastructure.

The El Salvadoran coast was among the hardest hit, with damage across the entire coastal line in the departments of Ahuachapán, Sonsonate, La Libertad, La Paz, San Vicente, Usulután and La Union. More than 1,300 people were evacuated: 514 were in shelters and 1,270 were providing their own shelter. Another segment of the population had migrated to areas where they had access to family shelters and to the Chapina Garita area. (IFRC, 16 May 2015).

Strong winds generated high waves and swells in coastal areas of several countries in the region, affecting the populations and infrastructure.

Several people were killed or reported as missing in coastal areas of Chile, Panama and El Salvador. hundreds of others were forced to evacuate house and hotels on the Pacific coast.

In Guatemala, about 500 people were evacuated due to the damage caused by the storm surge that traveled more than one kilometer inland.

The phenomenon also affected other countries including Mexico, Peru, Ecuador and Honduras, among others, causing damage to houses, hotels and roads. (OCHA, 4 May 2015).

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Cyclone PAM: “Entire communities have been blown away”

Posted by feww on March 15, 2015

Links sent by Tom C.

Super Cyclone PAM probably caused “one of the worst disasters ever seen in the Pacific”

Up to 90 per cent of homes in Vanuatu’s capital Port Villa has reportedly  been seriously damaged by Super Cyclone PAM, leaving “most” of the population homeless, with no information available yet as to the fate of more than 33,000 people who live on the extremely vulnerable outer islands. 

“This is likely to be one of the worst disasters ever seen in the Pacific,” said Oxfam Country Director in Port Vila, Colin Collet van Rooyen.

“Entire communities have been blown away.”

Cyclone PAM made a direct hit on Vanuatu island late Friday, plowing through the archipelago of 65 islands [pop. ~ 270,000] with supercharged force.

“With more than 250,000 people at risk from the severe tropical cyclone there is real concern of a potentially high death toll and of enormous destruction, particularly given the traditional housing that is so prevalent through the islands,” said the report.

“Cyclone Pam has destroyed all but one of mobile towers in Port Vila so no comms between Efate and both nth and sth provinces,” said a UNICEF employee. Read more…

Tuvalu, Kiribati, Solomon Islands

Meantime, Tuvalu’s prime minister has declared a state of emergency, after the deadly cyclone caused widespread flash floods, severely affecting about half of his nation’s population.

The cyclone has also flattened homes, flooded fields and destroyed crops in Kiribati and the Solomon Islands, affecting thousands of families, said reports.


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PAM Wreaks “Complete Devastation” in Vanuatu

Posted by feww on March 14, 2015

Super Cyclone PAM devastates Vanuatu islands

The category five monster cyclone smashed into Vanuatu islands in the South Pacific, wreaking “complete devastation.”

There are fears that dozens have lost their lives, and entire villages razed,  in what may be one of the region’s deadliest, and most destructive weather disasters.

Super Cyclone Pam, charged with sustained winds of 275km/h, gusting up to 340 km/hr [FIRE-EARTH estimates based on blog models,] slammed directly into the island nation late Friday.

“The damage is quite extensive in Port Vila but there are so many more vulnerable islands. I can’t even imagine what it’s like in those vulnerable communities,” said an emergency communications officer with World Vision in Port Vila, citing reports that entire villages in remote areas have been destroyed.

“The scene here this morning is complete devastation – houses are destroyed, trees are down, roads are blocked and people are wandering the streets looking for help,” said Tom Skirrow of Save the Children.

“Communications are down across much of the country with the total extent of the devastation unlikely to be known for several days.”

Some 44 people may have lost their lives in Penama province in the north-east of Vanuatu, said the UN’s Office for the Co-ordination for Humanitarian Assistance (UNOCHA).

“There are destructive winds, rain, flooding, landslides, sea surges and very rough seas and the storm is exceedingly destructive there,” said Australian Foreign Minister.

“While it is too early to say for certain, early reports are indicating that this weather disaster could potentially be one of the worst in Pacific history,” said a UNICEF spokesperson.

“The sheer force of the storm combined with communities just not set up to withstand it, could have devastating results for thousands across the region.”

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Super Cyclone PAM Devastating South Pacific Nations

Posted by feww on March 13, 2015

PAM bearing down on Vanuatu after devastating several South Pacific nations

PAM a SUPERCHARGED category five tropical storm, is bearing down on Vanuatu after causing destruction in several South Pacific nations, including Kiribati, the Solomon Islands, and Tuvalu.

Vanuatu authorities issued a red alert nationwide, after the cyclone moved closer and was expected to hit the capital, Port Vila, Friday night.

Meantime, the Vanuatu Meteorological Services (VMS) issued the following warning:

At 12:00am local time, Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM was located at 17.8 degrees South 168.7 degrees East. This is about 45km east of Port Vila and 105km north northwest of Erromango. Severe Tropical  Cyclone PAM moved in a south direction at 17 km/hr in the past 3 hours.

The central pressure of the system is estimated at 900 hPa. Winds close to the centre are estimated at 250 km/hr. Severe Tropical Cyclone PAM is forecast to be at 20.2 degrees South 169.2 degrees East within the next 06 to 12 hours.

Very Destructive Hurricane Force winds of 255 km/hr is affecting SHEFA, MALAMPA and PENAMA provinces and slowly extending to TAFEA province.

Destructive Storm Force winds of 120 km/hr will continue to affect SANMA and TORBA provinces, slowly decreasing to gale force winds of 75 km/hr as the system moves further southward.

Very Destructive winds and very rough to phenomenal seas with heavy swells is affecting TORBA, PENAMA, SANMA, MALAMPA, SHEFA and TAFEA provinces. Heavy to torrential rainfalls and flooding, including flash flooding are expected over low lying areas and areas close to the river banks. Landslide is also expected. Coastal flooding from storm surge is expected near and along the coastal areas.

State of Emergency in Tuvalu

PAM has already caused flash flooding in the island nation of Tuvalu, located midway between Hawaii and Australia, forcing the authorities to declare a state of emergency.

The cyclone has also flattened homes, flooded fields and destroyed crops in Kiribati and the Solomon Islands, affecting thousands of families, said reports.


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‘Weather Bomb’ Hits UK

Posted by feww on December 10, 2014


Explosive Cyclogenesis Brings Massive Lightning Storm to NW Britain

Thousands are without electricity, train and ferries have been cancelled, as a weather bomb, bringing a massive lightning storm and “exceptionally high” waves, hit northwestern UK.

The UK Met Office had earlier warned that western and northern Scotland and the far north of Northern Ireland could experience “dangerous conditions” on Wednesday due to a rapidly-developing Atlantic storm known as an Explosive Cyclogenesis, with wind gusts of up to 130 km/h.

Explosive Cyclogenesis is a rapidly deepening extratropical cyclonic low-pressure area. It occurs when the central pressure of a depression at 60˚ latitude drops by 24 millibars (hPa) or more in 24 hours.

A second storm front is forecast to move  across the U.K. on Thursday, said the Met Office.

Amber & Yellow warnings of severe weather have been issued by the UK Met Office

Regions affected by Amber warning:
Highlands & Eilean Siar, Northern Ireland, Orkney & Shetland, Strathclyde

Regions affected by Yellow warnings:
Central, Tayside & Fife, East Midlands, East of England, Grampian, Highlands & Eilean Siar, London & South East England, North East England, North West England, Northern Ireland, Orkney & Shetland, SW Scotland, Lothian Borders, South West England, Strathclyde, Wales, West Midlands, Yorkshire & Humber

Satellite animation showing developing area of low pressure

UK-EU storm 10-12-2014
Lightning over 24 hours from 09:30 GMT on Tuesday, with darker colors indicating more recent strikes. Issued by UK Met Office/ via BBC.

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Typhoon PHANFONE Battering Japan

Posted by feww on October 5, 2014

SCENARIOS  444, 111, 088, 070, 066, 033, 025, 024, 023, 022, 09, 02

Powerful typhoon heads north after buffeting Kyushu region

PHANFONE (TY 18W) is expected to make landfall on Japan’s main island of Honshu Monday.

The typhoon is dumping up to 125mm of rain per hour over areas along the Pacific coast from western to northeastern Japan, while generating large storm surges along the coastal areas.

At14:59UTC on Sunday typhoon PHANFONE (TY 18W) was located near 32.2N 134.6E, according to JTWC.

The powerful storm was tracking northeastward at about 20km/h [according to local information] packing sustained winds of about 170km/h with wind gusts exceeding 205km/h [Fire-Earth Models.]

Maximum significant wave height was 13 meters (42 feet), according to JTWC.

Multiple Warnings

Local authorities have issued multiple warnings for destructive winds, major storm surges, flooding and  mudslides along the typhoon’s predicted path.

Typhoon VONGFONG (TY 19W)

Typhoon VONGFONG (TY 19W), which is following PHANFONE, could become a super typhoon within the next few days, according to various models.

Position at 14:59UTC on Sunday, October 5, 2014: Near 14.1N 145.9E [JTWC]
Tracking  west-northwestward at 25 km/h
Max sustained wind: 175km/h
Max wind gusts: 240km/h
Max significant wave height: 11m (33feet)

The Most Powerful Typhoon Ever Recorded?

VONGFONG, should favorable conditions continue, could become one of the most powerful storms ever recorded on earth, with maximum sustained winds of up to 300 km/h [Probability: 0.65  as of posting —FIRE-EARTH Models.]

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ITA Could Become another Super Cyclone to Remember

Posted by feww on April 10, 2014


Super Cyclone ITA Closes in on NE Australia, Evacuations Ordered

ITA is packing powerful winds in Coral Sea, rapidly developing to the most powerful storm to hit Australia since Cyclone YASI in 2011, which caused widespread destruction, with the damage bill estimated at A$3.5 billion.

ITA is currently packing sustained winds of more than 240 km/h with maximum wind gusts of up to 300km/hr.

Several models show the Super Cyclone could intensify further reaching sustained winds of up to 260 km/h with max. wind gusts of 325 km/h before striking the coast.

FIRE-EARTH models show ITA could generate destructive storm surges and tidal waves of up to 20 meters high, which could extensively flood low-lying areas.

ITA Location
At 14:00 UTC on Thursday April 10,  2014

ITA was located over the northern Coral Sea near 12.9ºS, 146.2ºE moving at about 12 km/h the Queensland coast.

ITA 5-cimss
Super Cyclone ITA – IR-WV satellite image timed at 13:32UTC on April 10, 2014. Source UW-CIMSS.

Current Evacuations

Queensland Premier said the cyclone could affect about 9,000 people, including residents and visitors in Port Douglas, as Lizard Island, a  Great Barrier Reef resort about 240km north of Cairns confirmed it had evacuated all its guests on Thursday, said Reuters.

Deaths in the Solomon Islands

ITA battered the Solomon Islands late last week, while still a tropical depression, killing at least two dozen people near the capital, Honiara, and leaving dozens more missing and more than 10,000 homeless, after intense flash flooding.

Authorities declared a State of Emergency, and a local newspaper, the  Solomon Star,  said:“This is the worst disaster the nation has seen.” 

Related Links

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State of Emergency Declared in New Jersey

Posted by feww on February 4, 2014



Christie declares a state of emergency due to a heavy snow storm plaguing NJ

The governor has ordered  all non-essential state workers to go home, on a staggering schedule, starting at noon.

“Today’s winter storm is expected to produce heavy snow and travel hazards throughout the state, affecting tonight’s evening commute,” Christie said in a statement on Monday.

The storm is forecast to dump heavy snow and freezing rain throughout the state, felling trees, and causing power outages and flooding, he said.

“Total Nightmare”

As of 7:00 p.m.  EST up to 9.5 inches of snow had fallen in some parts of the Garden State creating a “total nightmare” for the Super Bowl fans leaving the state.

“It’s a parade of storms this week,” said the state climatologist at Rutgers University. “We haven’t been able to tap this kind of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and other environments in quite a few weeks. January was the 8th snowiest on record in New Jersey but it wasn’t abundantly moist. We had a lot of cold, dry snow, fluffy snow, not the thumping snow that we have today.”

State of Emergency Proclamation (excerpts) 

… beginning on February 3, 2014 the State of New Jersey is expected to experience a severe winter storm with high winds, heavy snow, mixed precipitation, dangerous storm surges, and sub-zero temperatures throughout the State … this severe winter storm is predicted to produce hazardous travel conditions, cause fallen trees and power outages, and produce potential coastal, stream, and river flooding throughout the State … this severe winter storm is expected to result in dangerous conditions across New Jersey for several days,  impeding transportation and the normal operation of public and private entities … impending weather conditions constitute an imminent hazard, which threatens and presently endangers the health, safety, and resources of the residents of one or more municipalities and counties of this State … this situation may become too large in scope to be handled by the normal county and municipal operating services in some parts of this State, and this situation may spread to other parts of the State …

Christie’s State of Emergency Proclamation: Full Text

Meanwhile, the National weather Service issued the following forecast:

New Winter Storm to Impact the Central U.S. Tuesday and the Northeast on Wednesday

The next winter storm is ready to impact the Plains and Midwest with snow and ice Tuesday into Wednesday. Heaviest snow is forecast from central Kansas through central Missouri and Illinois, into central Indiana. This same system could bring a foot of snow to northern Pennsylvania into central New England on Wednesday.

US weather hazmap 4feb14
U.S. Weather Hazards Map (Hazmap)  for Tuesday, February 4, 2014. Issued at 02:36UTC. Source: NWS. UPDATE

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Alabama, Mississippi Declare States of Emergency

Posted by feww on October 5, 2013

Alabama and Mississippi declare States of Emergency in anticipation of KAREN

Gov. Bentley has declared a statewide State of Emergency in Alabama in anticipation of Tropical Storm KAREN.

The governor’s office released a statement saying that heavy rains, high winds and possibly tornadoes could hit the state.

“Residents and businesses along Alabama’s coast should monitor weather conditions and be prepared for whatever this tropical storm may bring,” Bentley said. “By declaring this state of emergency, I am mobilizing the resources our communities need as the storm approaches.”

“The governor’s issuance of the State of Emergency places Alabama National Guard members and all emergency response agencies on alert for the potential impact of Tropical Storm Karen,” said Alabama EMA Director.

Mississippi Declares A State of Emergency

Mississippi Gov. Bryant has also declared a state of emergency as Tropical Storm KAREN continues  churning through the Gulf of Mexico.

“Now is the time for people to review their emergency plans in case conditions worsen,” Bryant said in a statement.

KAREN 10-5
Tropical Storm KAREN. IR Satellite Image recorded at 00:45UTC on October 5, 2013. Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC. FIRE-EARTH Enhancement.

Meantime, up to five inches of rain and destructive winds are forecast to hit the Gulf’s northern coastline as TS KAREN continues to grow larger.

Mandatory evacuations are under way in Plaquemines parish, Louisiana, due to the threat of storm surge as TS KAREN closes in.

Related Links

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Superstorm, Sandstorm and People Without Homes

Posted by feww on November 3, 2012


[November 3, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

  • SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,225 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History
  • Symbolic countdown to the ‘worst day’ in human history began on May 15, 2011 ...


Global Disasters/ Significant Events

Superstorm SANDY

Superstorm SANDY as it plowed into the U.S. Atlantic Coast. The superstorm caused much destruction across 15 states and cut power to at least 8.5 million customers affecting an estimated 65 million people.

“Where are you going today?”

Original Caption: Citizens walk in sandstorm in Hami, northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Nov. 2, 2012. Parts of Xinjiang were hit by a sandstorm on Friday. (Xinhua/Polat) 

Cyclone NILAM

  • INDIA: Cyclone NILAM  brought heavy rain and a storm surge to southern India, destroying thousands of homes displacing 150,000 people.
  • Sri Lanka. Flooding in Sri Lanka caused by the cyclone displaced about 70,000 others.
    • The storm left at least a dozen people dead and many injured in the region.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background


Posted in global deluge, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, global drought | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

United States: The First Phase of Collapse Has Begun

Posted by feww on October 31, 2012


[October 31, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

  • SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,228 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History
  • Symbolic countdown to the ‘worst day’ in human history began on May 15, 2011 ...


Global Disasters/ Significant Events

Superstorm SANDY dumps enough snow to keep your heads buried

The progress of collapse would be swift, cruel and unceremonious [“abrupt, brutal and grisly.”]

Superstorm SANDY

  • Hurricane-force winds of up to 145 km/h (90MPH) were recorded as SANDY slammed into NJ shore.
  • “The devastation is unthinkable,” New Jersey Governor said after viewing photos of the New Jersey coast. “The idea … that you see homes [ripped from their foundation and tossed] in the middle of Route 35 southbound and northbound is just unfathomable,” he told reporters.
  • SANDY knocked out electricity to more 8 million homes and businesses [figure released by the U.S. Department of Energy,] affecting an estimated 65 million people across 17 states.
  • “New Jersey, New York in particular have been pounded by this storm. Connecticut has taken a big hit,” said the Disaster President. “This storm is not yet over.”
  • The White House has declared the States of New Jersey and New York as major disaster areas, having issued states of emergency declaration for  New Hampshire, Virginia, Delaware, West Virginia, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New Jersey, District of Colombia, New York, Massachusetts and Maryland.
  • Thousands of homes and businesses have been inundated, many destroyed by flooding, high winds aor other storm related disasters.
  • A large fire, possibly caused by downed powerlines, destroyed 80 – 100 homes in Breezy Point, on the Rockaway barrier island, in NYC’s borough of Queens, reports said.
  • Garrett County in Maryland has reported  20 inches of icy snow.
  • The storm reached as far inland as the state of Ohio.
  • The massive storm has forced cancellation of at least 16,000 flights to and from the affected region thus far.
  • “To describe it as looking like pictures we’ve seen of the end of World War Two is not overstating it. The area was completely leveled. Chimneys and foundations were all that was left of many of these homes,” New York Mayor  said.
  • Blizzard warnings were issued by NWS for West Virginia, western Maryland, eastern Tennessee, eastern Kentucky and western North Carolina after  Sandy converged with a cold weather system.
  • Storm surge buried about three-quarters of Hoboken [pop: ~50,000], NJ under several feet of water.
  • Atlantic City remained in an official state of emergency, as of posting, with a 6 p.m.-to-6 a.m. curfew in effect.
  • Death toll from SANDY has reached about 120, including 70 in the Caribbean and 20 in NYC [Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut, New Jersey, New York state, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia and Toronto have reported up to 30 deaths due to the storm.]
  • Pelting the region with hail, snow, and rain, SANDY “continued to whip southern Ontario with winds,” where a warning for gusts of up to 100 km/h remained in place, said a report.
  • Meanwhile, the “Antichrist” and “Mammon” put campaigning on hold for a second day.

Related Links

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background


Posted in environment, global delta flooding, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012 | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Global Disasters Continue Intensifying

Posted by feww on October 30, 2012

FIRE-EARTH forecasts proving deadly accurate!


[October 30, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

  • SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,229 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History


Global Disasters/ Significant Events

Storm surges inundate many towns as Superstorm SANDY slams into East Coast

Related Links

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background


PSR Map will be available soon!

Posted in global delta flooding, global deluge, Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012 | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Nature Upgrading Her Forces into Quasi-exotic Weapons?

Posted by feww on October 29, 2012


[October 29, 2012] Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.

  • SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,230 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History


Global Disasters/ Significant Events

SANDY’s storm surge could be “life-threatening”: NHC

National Hurricane Center (NHC) has described the storm surge threat from Hurricane SANDY as “life-threatening,” ranking the surge and wave “destruction potential” for the hurricane alone, not including the combined force of the hybrid storm, which it could eventually become,  at 5.8 on a scale of 0 to 6.

  • SANDY could be the largest storm ever to hit the United States, said NHC.
  • The massive storm could affect tens of millions of people hundreds of miles along the Atlantic Coast.
  • Some coastal parts of New York and New Jersey could experience surge and waves of up to 11 feet, judging by Hurricane SANDY’s size, said NHC.
  • New York Mayor has ordered the evacuation of more than 375,000 people in low-lying areas.
  • Some 50,000 people in Delaware and 30,000 in Atlantic City, N.J. have also been evacuated.
  • At least 5,000 flights have been cancelled.
  • Flooding caused by the storm surge is expected to be particularly severe because the storm’s arrival coincides with a full moon, which causes higher tides.
  • Up to 284,000 residential properties valued at $88 billion could sustain damage from storm-surge flooding, according to risk analysts CoreLogic, Reuters reported.
  • The massive storm has already claimed at least 66 lives in the Caribbean.
  • The Disaster President has declared States of Emergency for New York and Massachusetts.
  • States of emergency have also been declared by the governors in Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia and the District of Columbia.

Hurricane SANDY – IR Sat Image (NHC Enhancement).  SANDY was centered about 420 miles south of New York City, at 00:01UTC on Monday moving NE, parallel to the Atlantic coast, at about 15 mph.  Image source: CIMSS.

Global Disasters/ Significant Events


  • “The UN has reported that over 22,000 people were displaced in a week of renewed sectarian fighting between Buddhists and Muslims living on Myanmar’s west coast. The total number of displaced since violence erupted in June is now around 100,000 [with at least 200 dead or injured, and more than 3,000 homes destroyed,]” said a report.


  • “More than 80,000 people in south China’s Hainan Province have been relocated following the arrival of Typhoon Son-Tinh, which has brought gales and downpours to the region since Saturday,” said a report.

SW Pacific

  • Good bye SOWPI.

Related Links

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background


Posted in Global Disaster watch, global disasters, global disasters 2012, state of emergency | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

In the Wake of Ike

Posted by msrb on October 1, 2008

Was it a Political Decision for Ike to remain a “Category 2” Hurricane on Landfall?

Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ike –  Roughly an hour before this image was captured at 1:50 p.m. Central Daylight Time on September 10, 2008, Ike was a Category 2 hurricane according to the National Hurricane Center. Ike was a large storm, and at the time of this image it was affecting three nations: Cuba, the United States, and Mexico. NASA image created by Jesse Allen, using data provided courtesy of the MODIS Rapid Response team. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey.

Flooding from Hurricane Ike in Texas

Images and caption below: Earth Observatory/NASA

Hurricane Ike came ashore along the U.S. Gulf Coast on September 13, 2008, and the storm’s eye narrowly missed Galveston and Houston. Although the storm produced tremendous damage in both cities, perhaps the greatest damage was caused by the storm surge, which inundated the coastline near Galveston. The storm surge was greatest east of Galveston, reaching 4.6 meters (15 feet) above sea level. The area devastated by the storm surge includes coastline immediately east of Galveston Bay.

These images acquired by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Relfection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA’s Terra satellite show part of the area scoured by Hurricane Ike. The bottom image, acquired August 15, 2006, shows the region two years prior to Ike’s landfall. The top image, acquired September 28, 2008, shows the region about two weeks after the storm surge.

In these false-color images, red indicates vegetation, and the brighter the red, the more robust the vegetation. Blue indicates water, and, in the top image, the large beige-to-brown region indicates an area devastated by the storm. The ocean water’s combination of turbulence and high salt content might have been the cause of the vegetation loss in this area. Along the coast, numerous patches of deep blue suggest that standing water lingered after the storm surge’s retreat. Only a few isolated patches of robust vegetation survive, most conspicuously on High Island. This salt dome’s relatively high elevation helped it survive the worst of the storm’s damage. Immediately southeast of High Island, a storm-spawned lake lingers.

Besides destroyed vegetation, Hurricane Ike left water standing in the bottom floors of most homes, and a slippery, muddy sludge on most roadways. An estimated 40,000 residents defied evacuation orders. In the storm’s aftermath, those left in the Galveston area had to contend with no electricity, no functional plumbing, and little food or drinkable water.

NASA image created by Jesse Allen, using data provided courtesy of NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team. Caption by Michon Scott.

Related Links:

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Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

Posted by feww on September 10, 2008

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

2009: A New Climate

What if each time a storm struck your area it turned out to be a major hurricane?

Based on MSRB/CASF dynamic energy models and FEWW climate model there’s a high probability that:

1. The duration of Atlantic Hurricane season may be longer in 2009. It could start earlier than June 1, and end later than November 30. The FEWW model forecasts an 11-18 day increase in the season.

2. The storms could get stronger throughout the season. Our model indicates average increases in the maximum wind speeds of tropical storms as follows

  • Category 5 hurricanes [Saffir-Simpson scale] : 16 to 19 percent increase
  • Category 4 hurricanes : 14 to 17 percent
  • Category 3 hurricanes : 8 to 11 percent
  • Category 2 hurricanes : 4 to 6 percent
  • Category 1 hurricanes : 2 to 4 percent

Now, back to Ike

Latest Headlines:

  • More than 1 million are evacuated but there are four deaths as 20 inches of rain and 100-mph winds pound Cuba. Reports mount of earlier deaths and destruction in Haiti. Texas could be next. (LA Times)
  • Oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico remained at a trickle on Tuesday as Hurricane Ike moved toward the region, triggering the second storm-related wave of offshore platform evacuations and production shutdowns in less than two weeks. (Reuters).
  • Some two million Cubans had been driven from their homes by the storm’s winds topping 130 km/h (80 mph) more than 24 hours after it first made landfall on Sunday. (AFP)
  • Ike earlier caused 66 deaths in Haiti and reportedly damaged 80% of the homes in the Turks and Caicos Islands. (BBC)

NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) Forecast Positions. Credit: CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering CenterUniversity of Wisconsin- Madison:


  • Source: NHC
  • Forecaster: Franklin
  • Date and Time: Sept 9, 2008 at 12:00UTC
  • Location: At 12:00UTC the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 22.4 north, longitude 82.4 west, or about 65 Km south of Havana, Cuba.
  • Category and Wind Speed: At 130 km/hr, Ike is a Category one hurricane  on FEWW Hurricane Scale.  Some strengthening may occur this morning before Ike moves over Western Cuba.  Additional strengthening is forecast to occur once Ike reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Direction: Ike is moving toward the west-northwest at 20 km/hr and  is expected to continue in that direction in the next 48 hrs.  The center of Ike should reach the south coast of western Cuba in the next few hours, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico by this evening.
  • Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 355 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 315 km. 
  • Estimated minimum central pressure: 965mb (28.50 inches).
  • Storm surge flooding: Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected in areas of onshore winds east of Ike along the southern coast of  Cuba.
  • Storm surge flooding of up to 90cm, along with Large and dangerous waves, are possible in the Florida Keys.
  • Large swells generated by Ike will continue to affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next couple of days. These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip
  • Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 25cm over Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 50cm possible. These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash
    floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10cm are possible over the Cayman Islands. Rainfall accumulations of 2.5 to 8cm are possible over the Florida Keys.
  • Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts are possible over the Florida Keys and extreme south Florida today.

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FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Posted by feww on September 3, 2008

FEWW New Hurricane Scale Makes Hurricane Classification More Meaningful!

FEWW’s New Hurricane Scale is based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale and provides a more detailed definition of hurricane forces.

Size Description

To make the classification of tropical cyclones even more descriptive, FIRE-EARTH recommends the addition of following suffixes for storm size to denote the category:

  • Midget hurricanes (m). With the average radius from the storm’s center of circulation to its outermost closed isobar (ROCI) in four quadrants measuring less than two degrees of latitude [222.2 km or 138.1 miles.]
  • Small. Small Hurricanes (s).  ROCI measuring between 2 and 3 degrees of latitude [222km< ROCI< 333km]
  • Regular. Average Hurricanes (r). ROCI measuring between 3 and 6 degrees of latitude [333km< ROCI< 667km]
  • Large. Large Hurricanes (g). ROCI of between 6 and 8 degrees of latitude [667km< ROCI< 889km]
  • Monster. Very Large Hurricanes (x). ROCI of larger than 8 degrees of latitude [ROCI> 889km]

Example: Hurricane GRETA, with ROCI of 960km, the largest ever recorded Atlantic hurricane, which reached a maximum sustained winds of about 225km/h on November 5, 1956 may be represented as a Monster hurricane, or 4Ax category hurricane on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale.

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Nargis: Asia’s 2nd most devastating cyclone

Posted by feww on May 9, 2008

Update #3: Nargis Death Toll May Top 100,000

A U.S. diplomat in Myanmar said the death toll in cyclone Nargis may exceed 100,000. Shari Villarosa, the U.S. charge d’affaires in Yangon, said figure was based on data from an international non-governmental organization.

“The information we are receiving indicates over 100,000 deaths,” she said, “I think most of the damage was caused by these 12-foot storm surges.”

According to the Myanmar state radio, the death toll was 22,980 with 42,119 missing and 1,383 injured by Wednesday night.

Dead bodies from Cyclone Nargis float on a flooded field in Labutta (Source: AFP) Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notice.

Nargis is Asia’s second most devastating cyclone in terms of loss of human lives. In 1991 a storm in Bangladesh killed 143,000.

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Cyclone kills hundreds and paralyzes Myanmar

Posted by feww on May 5, 2008

Powerful tropical cyclone Nargis hits Myanmar

The powerful tropical cyclone Nargis has killed at least 351 people in Myanmar (Burma) and damaged thousands of buildings. The death toll is expected to rise further.

In this photo released by Democratic Voice of Burma, damaged satellite dishes are seen on the roof of a residential building, and tree branches broken after tropical cyclone Nargis hit Yangon, Myanmar, on Friday May 2, 2008. A Myanmar official says that a tropical cyclone packing winds of 190 kilometers per hour (120 miles) caused heavy damage in Yangon, tearing off roofs and knocking out electricity in much of the country’s commercial capital. (Caption AP. Photo: Democratic voice of Burma)

Villages in the Irrawaddy delta have been flattened by 190km-per-hour wind, rain and storm surge. Forecasters said the tide would rise by as much as 4 meters above the normal levels. In Irrawaddy’s Labutta township about 20,000 homes have been destroyed and 90,000 people made homeless on the island alone, a government official said.

The government has declared five states as disaster zones. Much of the former capital Yangon (Rangoon) is without power or water. All flight from Yangon’s international airport have been canceled.

A Yangon resident was reported as saying: “Everything was wrecked. Roofs of the houses and satellite dishes were blown away.” A foreign diplomat called the city an “utter war zone”.

Less than a day after cyclone Nargis struck the area, price of food items such as meat, eggs, milk and vegetables was more than doubled.

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