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Posts Tagged ‘Sub-Surface Temperature Departures’

El Niño Update [5 Oct 2009]

Posted by feww on October 6, 2009

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

The following UPDATE is prepared by

Climate Prediction Center / NCEP –  5 Oct 2009

The latest weekly SST departures are:

  • Niño 4   ~ 0.8ºC
  • Niño 3.4  ~ 0.7ºC
  • Niño 3 ~ 0.6ºC
  • Niño 1+2 ~ -0.3ºC


El Niño Map. [SOURCE: NOAA/ Climate Prediction Center / NCEP]

Highlights

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were at least1.0°C above average across parts of the central and eastern Pacific.

Global SST Departures (ºC)
During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Also, above-average SSTs covered large areas of the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and mid-latitudes.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

  • During the last four weeks, SST anomalies remained positive across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • During the last month, SST anomalies decreased over the eastern equatorial SST.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

SSTA - 5 october
Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 Days
During early August through September, an anomalous trough was prevalent in the North Pacific Ocean/Gulf of Alaska. During September, an anomalous ridge was present downstream, focused over Canada and the northern United States. The pattern also featured a weak trough over thecentral U.S., which contributed to cooling in the region, while the northern U.S. and Canada remained warmer-than-average.

WHCEEP 5-10-09

The most recent ONI value (July –September 2009) is +0.8oC.

Summary

  • El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
  • Sea surface temperatures (SST) were at least 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.
  • Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Related Links:

El Niño Updates:


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