BRUCE Becomes a Super Cyclonic Storm

EXTREME CLIMATIC EVENT

BRUCE is now a Super Cyclonic Storm with 0.8 certainty

FIRE-EARTH Models show BRUCE has strengthened to a Super Cyclonic Storm with 80 percent certainty, packing winds of over 255 km/h at about 04:00UTC on December 21, 2013.

FIRE-EARTH Estimates

Position: Near 15.0ºS, 84.3ºE
Maximum Sustained Winds:  255+ km/h
Maximum Wind Gust: 320 km/h
Significant Wave Height:  15m
Movement: WSW (250 degrees) at 25km/h

[Note: FIRE-EARTH Models input data from various sources including ESA, NOAA, JTWC and others.]

Super Cyclonic Storm BRUCE. VIS/SWIR [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] Satellite image – recorded at 04:30UTC on December 21, 2013. Original Image Sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

Point of No Return

In 2004¹,  our team forecast an 80-90 percent increase in the total power dissipated annually by tropical cyclones  in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans by 2015.

Storms will continue to get stronger (develop greater average intensities) and survive at high intensity for longer (take more time to dissipate peak energy) resulting in substantial increases in storm-related losses in the near future.

[1. First draft posted by MSRB on Internet on February 26, 2005]

Related Links

• BRUCE could Intensify to a Super Cyclonic Storm December 20, 2013
• Tropical Cyclones AMARA and BRUCE December 19, 2013

BRUCE could Intensify to a Super Cyclonic Storm

Cyclone BRUCE could strengthen to a Super Cyclonic Storm – probability: 0.23

FIRE-EARTH models show Cyclone BRUCE could potentially intensify to a Super Cyclonic Storm packing sustained winds of about 255 km/h with probability of 23 percent.

Approximate location of Cyclone BRUCE as of 07:00UTC on December 20, 2013 marked on CIMMS SST map.

FIRE-EARTH Estimates – at 11:00UTC on December 20, 2013

• Cyclone AMARA (TC 03S) was located near 18.5ºS, 64.9ºE packing winds of about 215Km/hr.
• Cyclone BRUCE (TC 04S) was located near 13.8ºS, 87.7ºE with sustained winds of about 230Km/hr.

Cyclones AMARA (TC 03S) and BRUCE (TC 04S). IS/SWIR [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] Satellite image – recorded at 09:30UTC on December 20, 2013. Original Image Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

Related Links

• Tropical Cyclones AMARA and BRUCE December 19, 2013

PHAILIN: A Perfect Super Cyclone

Super Cyclone PHAILIN Packs Even More Power

The perfectly symmetrical textbook Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN has further intensified, packing winds of about 270km per hour with wind gusts reaching 330km per hour.

FIRE-EARTH forecasts the cyclone could slightly intensify to a peak of about 275km/hr over the next 6 hours due to favorable sea surface temperatures and atmospheric conditions.

Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN has a well-defined 30km-wide eye. VIS/IR Satellite Image recorded at 00:30UTC on October 12, 2013. Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC. FIRE-EARTH Enhancement.

Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN

• Time: 03:00UTC on October 12, 2013
• Movement: NW – 305 degrees @ 13km/hr
• Position: Near 17.7ºN, 86.7ºE
• Location: About 585km SSW of Kolkata (202 degrees), India
• Max Sustained Winds: 270km/hr  [Super Cyclonic Storm]
• Max Wind Gusts: 330km/hr
• Significant Wave Height: ~ 10m
• Estimated Landfall Location and Time: Southwest of Brahmapur [REVISED] at about 18:00UTC on October 12, 2013. [JTWC estimate: Northeast of Visakhapatnam, Near 19.17ºN, 84.82E]
• Source: FIRE-EARTH and others

PHAILIN is a “28-hr” Super Storm!

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a ‘Red Message’ warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast concerning the impact of the “very severe cyclonic storm PHAILIN.”

Next update after landing!

The 1999 Odisha Cyclone [aka, Cyclone 05B, and Paradwip]

The 1999 Odisha cyclone was the deadliest tropical cyclone to hit India since 1971. The Category Five super storm made landfall just weeks after a category 4 storm had hit the same region.

The deadly cyclone hit India on October 29, 1999 with sustained winds of about 250km/hr, killing an estimated 15,000 people and carving a path of destruction.

Related Links

• Millions Flee Monster Cyclone PHAILIN October 11, 2013
• PHAILIN Becomes a Super Cyclonic Storm October 11, 2013
• Massive Cyclone Drifting Towards E India October 10, 2013
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale
• Satellite Imagery

Millions Flee Monster Cyclone PHAILIN

A million evacuated, millions more flee their homes as “terminator cyclone” approaches India

Massive waves have begun pounding eastern India’s coastline more than a day before Super Cyclone PHAILIN is forecast to hit India.

The monster cyclone, which measured about 1,600km in diameter, filling the entire Bay of Bengal several hours ago, is expected to cause sever damage to homes, crops, roads, bridges and other public infrastructure, as well as major disruption to power and water supplies and rail services.

• Indian authorities have issued a cyclone high alert for nine coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh and All 14 coastal districts in Odisha have been put on high alert, five of them – Ganjam, Gajapati, Khurda, Puri, Jagatsinghpur – expected to be worst hit.

• Mass evacuations are underway.

• Andhra Pradesh government has put the navy, army and air force on standby for emergency and relief operations.

Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN. IR Satellite Image recorded at 11:30UTC on October 11, 2013. Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN

• Time: 13:00UTC on October 11, 2013
• Movement: NW – 305 degrees @ 7km/hr
• Position: Near 16.4ºN, 87.7ºE
• Location: About 670km SSW (187 degrees)  of Kolkata, India
• Max Sustained Winds: 260km/hr  [Super Cyclonic Storm]
• Max Wind Gusts: 320km/hr
• Significant Wave Height: ~ 10m
• Estimated Landfall Time and  Location: about 16:00UTC on October 12, 2013. … Being revised … [JTWC estimate: Near 19.1ºN, 84.79E ]
• Source: FIRE-EARTH, JTWC and others

On October 10, 2013 FIRE-EARTH forecast that PHAILIN could become a super storm.

Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN. VIS/IR Satellite Image recorded at 11:30UTC on October 11, 2013. Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC. FIRE-EARTH Enhancement.

India’s Largest Gas Field

“India’s largest gas field—the Reliance Industries-operated D6 natural gas block—lies in the Cauvery Basin further down the east coast. The company said it was not expecting to be hit.”

The 1999 Odisha Cyclone [aka, Cyclone 05B, and Paradwip]

The 1999 Odisha cyclone was the deadliest tropical cyclone to hit India since 1971. The Category Five super storm made landfall just weeks after a category 4 storm had hit the same region.

The deadly cyclone hit India on October 29, 1999 with sustained winds of about 250km/hr, killing an estimated 15,000 people and carving a path of destruction.

Related Links

• PHAILIN Becomes a Super Cyclonic Storm October 11, 2013
• Massive Cyclone Drifting Towards E India October 10, 2013
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale
• Satellite Imagery

PHAILIN Becomes a Super Cyclonic Storm

PHAILIN could be deadlier than 1999 ODISHA Cyclone

PHAILIN officially became a Super Cyclonic Storm short time ago, as forecast by FIRE-EARTH, packing sustained winds in excess of 250km per hour.

Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN. VIS/IR Satellite Image recorded at 01:30UTC on October 11, 2013. Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC. FIRE-EARTH Enhancement.

Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN

• Time: 04:00UTC on October 11, 2013
• Movement: WNW – 285 degrees @ 10km/hr
• Position: Near 16.1ºN, 88.4ºE
• Max Sustained Winds: 260km/hr  [Super Cyclonic Storm]
• Max Wind Gusts: 320km/hr
• Estimated Landfall Location and Time:  Near Srikakulam, Andhra Pradesh, India at about 11:00UTC on October 12, 2013. [NOTE: JTWC forecast landfall position: Near 18.95ºN 84.66ºE ]
• Source: FIRE-EARTH, JTWC and others

On October 10, 2013 FIRE-EARTH forecast that PHAILIN could become a super storm.

Super Cyclonic Storm PHAILIN – Projected Path as of 04:30UTC on October 11, 2013. Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

FIRE-EARTH Forecast

• PHAILIN is expected to strengthen further [sustained wind of 270-275km/hr, wind gusts of up to 330km/hr ] and would likely make landfall with super cyclonic force.

• The potentially deadly storm WILL impact East India’s entire coastline, as well as most of Bangladesh.

Other Details/ News

• Indian authorities have issued a cyclone high alert for nine coastal districts of Andhra Pradesh.

• Mass evacuations are underway.

• All 14 coastal districts in Odisha have been put on high alert, five of them – Ganjam, Gajapati, Khurda, Puri, Jagatsinghpur – expected to be worst hit.

• Andhra Pradesh government has put the navy, army and air force on standby for emergency and relief operations.

The 1999 Odisha Cyclone [aka, Cyclone 05B, and Paradwip]

The 1999 Odisha cyclone was the deadliest tropical cyclone to hit India since 1971. The Category Five super storm made landfall just weeks after a category 4 storm had hit the same region.

The deadly cyclone hit India on October 29, 1999 with sustained winds of about 250km/hr, killing an estimated 15,000 people and carving a path of destruction.

[NOTE: Google is not listing most of the images posted on FIRE-EARTH, or delay listing them for several days until they’ve lost their immediate relevance. Editor]

Related Links

• Massive Cyclone Drifting Towards E India October 10, 2013
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale
• Satellite Imagery