Posts Tagged ‘TC ULUI’
Posted by feww on March 21, 2010
Cyclone ULUI brought heavy rainfall, flooding to areas between Bowen and St Lawrence, Australia.
ULUI is losing intensity rapidly and is now at tropical storm strength, with winds of about 63 km/hr (34 kt) Australia’s BOM reported.
Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible [postcard] image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 21, 2010 at 00:00UTC. Source: Digital Typhoon. Click image to enlarge.
“At 8:00 am EST Ex-Tropical Cyclone Ului, was estimated to be overland 120 kilometres west southwest of Bowen and 60 kilometres west of Collinsville and moving west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour.” BOM reported.
Readers who have had training as government employees and are familiar with bureaucratic cross-referencing may be able to extract more information from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology website; however, they appear to have issued their last warning concerning ULUI.
Unless ULUI re-intensifies, this entry would be Fire-Earth’s final update on ULUI.
Related Links:
For additional images click on the following links:
How ULUI was born:
ULUI History and Related Links:
TC ULUI, ULUI, | Tagged: Anna Bligh, Burdekin, Central Highlands, Charters Towers, Cyclone images ului, Cyclone ULUI, cyclone ului latest, cyclone , Isaac, Mackay, North Queensland coast, Queensland PM, Rockhampton, satellite images ului, TC ULUI, Townsville, Whitsunday
Posted in storm, STORM ULUI, TC ULUI, ULUI, ULUI landfall | Tagged: Cyclone images ului, Cyclone ULUI, cyclone ului latest, TC ULUI, ULUI Update | 3 Comments »
Posted by feww on March 20, 2010
Was it Something We Said?
ULUI Intensifies to a Category 1 Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale,and Intensifying
UPDATE on March 20 at 06:30UTC
- Position: 19.7S, 151.7E
- Max Sustained Winds: 152 km/hr (~ 82 kt)
- Wind Gusts: 200 km/hr (~ 107 kt)
- Movement: WSW (240 degrees)
- Forward Speed: ~ 24 km/hr (13 kt)
- Location: About 515 km EAST (98.5degrees) of Townsville, Australia
- Maximum significant wave height: 9m (27 feet)
- Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.
- Comments: The cyclone’s deep convection has developed much further. Satellite images indicate that ULUI could develop an eye before it strikes the Australian coast. Warm coastal waters are feeding ULUI and there’s little vertical wind shear to oppose the cyclone from further strengthening. ULUI could potentially intensify into a category 2A [90 percent probability], a Cat 2B [64 percent probability] or even a Cat 3A [~ 50 percent probability] Hurrine force on FEWW New Hurricane Scale before making a landfall.
- Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology has warned that up to 30cm of rain could fall in areas under the projected path of TC ULUI.
Cyclone ULUI IR Satellite image with GFS and CMC forecast tracks superimposed. The track marked in yellow is Fire-Earth Forecast. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible [postcard] image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 20, 2010 at 05:00UTC. Source: Digital Typhoon. Click image to enlarge.
On the Ground …
Meanwhile, Australia’s Queensland prime minister (they have one for each state), Anna Bligh, has declared a disaster zone across the state’s central and northern coast a day ahead of cyclone ULUI arrival.
Bligh declared the Townsville, Burdekin, Whitsunday, Charters Towers, Mackay, Isaac, Rockhampton and Central Highlands as disaster areas, local reports said.
“This declaration is in anticipation that some properties may need to be evacuated in the coming hours as Tropical Cyclone Ului approaches and then crosses the North Queensland coast,” she said.
“The declaration gives Emergency Services agencies the power of mandatory evacuations if required.”
For additional images click on the following links:
How ULUI was born:
ULUI History and Related Links:
Posted in STORM ULUI, TC ULUI, ULUI, ULUI landfall | Tagged: Anna Bligh, Burdekin, Central Highlands, Charters Towers, Cyclone images ului, Cyclone ULUI, cyclone ului latest, cyclone ului update, Isaac, Mackay, North Queensland coast, Queensland PM, Rockhampton, satellite images ului, TC ULUI, Townsville, Whitsunday | 6 Comments »
Posted by feww on March 20, 2010
Cyclones in NH: More Character?
TC ULUI has further weakened to a tropical storm with sustained winds of about 105 km/hr
Residents on the east coast of Australia in locations between about 17ºS and 27ºS should already be experiencing moderate to heavy winds accompanied by rain.
Cyclone ULUI (TC 20P) Details on March 20 at 00:01UTC
- Position: 19.3S 153.8E
- Max Sustained Winds: 105 km/hr (~ 55 kt)
- Wind Gusts: 130 km/hr (~ 70 kt)
- Movement: SW (225 degrees)
- Forward Speed: ~ 24 km/hr (13 kt)
- Location: About 900 ESE of Cairns
- Maximum significant wave height: 7m (22 feet)
- Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.
- Comments: The cyclone’s deep convection has developed slightly, though partially. ULUI is expected to weaken further before reaching ashore in about a day or so, and dissipate within a day thereafter.
- Australia’s own Bureau of Meteorology has warned that up to 30cm of rain could fall in areas under the projected path of TC ULUI.
Cyclone ULUI Vis/IR Satellite image with GFS forecast track superimposed. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
On the Ground …
Meanwhile, Australia’s Queensland prime minister (they have one for each state), Anna Bligh, has lost her nerve declaring a disaster zone across the state’s central and northern coast a day ahead of cyclone ULUI arrival.
Bligh declared the Townsville, Burdekin, Whitsunday, Charters Towers, Mackay, Isaac, Rockhampton and Central Highlands as disaster areas.
“This declaration is in anticipation that some properties may need to be evacuated in the coming hours as Tropical Cyclone Ului approaches and then crosses the North Queensland coast,” she said.
“The declaration gives Emergency Services agencies the power of mandatory evacuations (!) if required.”
Cyclone ULUI – 1km Visible Image. The center of ULUI appears as a slight depression near 19S, 154E on this image. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible [postcard] image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 20, 2010 at 00:00UTC. Source: Digital Typhoon. Click image to enlarge.
For additional images click on the following links:
How ULUI was born:
ULUI History and Related Links:
Posted in Cyclone images, storm, Tropical Cyclone 20P, Tropical Cyclone ULUI | Tagged: Anna Bligh, Cyclone ULUI, cyclone ului update, satellite images ului, TC 20P, TC ULUI, tropical cyclone, ULUI | 4 Comments »
Posted by feww on March 19, 2010
TC ULUI Still Moving Toward QLD
Cyclone ULUI has slowed down some, but still moving above 20ºS as previously forecast
TC ULUI – Latest Satellite image, as of posting
Cyclone ULUI – 4 km Visible/IR Image. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
Wind Shear. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
Cyclone ULUI (TC 20P) Details on March 19 at 06:00UTC
- Position: 17.6S 157.1E
- Max Sustained Winds: 120 km/hr (~ 65 kt)
- Wind Gusts: 150 km/hr (~ 80 kt)
- Movement: SW (225 degrees)
- Forward Speed: ~ 12 km/hr ( 6 kt)
- Location: About 920 km NE of Rockhampton; 1,090 east of Townsville, Australia; 1,200 E of Cairns
- Maximum significant wave height: 8m (24 feet)
- Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.
Cyclone ULUI – 1km Visible Image with Dynamical Models Superimposed. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
According to the UKM Dynamical Model (see green line in the above image), the cyclone should have disappeared 3 days ago, strike QLD in a straight line two days ago, then completely dissipate by yesterday; however, the satellite images disagree with the model.
Cyclone ULUI: Projected Track. Source: JTWC. According to this forecast TC ULUI would have to accelerate to speeds of about 22 km/h. Click image to enlarge.
For additional images click on the following links:
ULUI History and Related Links:
Posted in cyclone ului update, storm, STORM ULUI, tropical cyclone, ULUI | Tagged: Cyclone images ului, Cyclone ULUI, satellite images ului, TC ULUI | Leave a Comment »
Posted by feww on March 18, 2010
Image of the Day:
ULUI left its heart above 15ºS
Cyclone ULUI – Visible/IR Image. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 18, 2010 at 06:00UTC. Source: Digital Typhoon. Click image to enlarge.
How ULUI was born:
For additional images click on the following links:
ULUI History and Related Links:
Posted in cyclone, cyclone photos ului, Cyclone ULUI, storm, TC ULUI | Tagged: cyclone ului latest images, cyclone ului update, Mid-air refueling, TC ULUI, Tropical Cyclone ULUI | 6 Comments »
Posted by feww on March 18, 2010
ULUI Moving!
Having spent 36 hours in a ‘quasistationery state,’ ULUI is finally moving
If you have been monitoring satellite images of cyclone ULUI, you would have probably noticed it wasn’t moving much despite various data indicating an average speed of about 8.8km/hr.
ULUI is now moving at an average speed of about 9 km/hr (5 kt) SSW at sustained wind speeds of about 190 km/hr with gusts of up to 240 km/hr (but weakening).
ULUI is about 1,250 kms ENE of Cairns, Australia, and is expected to come ashore in about three and a half days and dissipate over eastern Australia within two days thereafter.
The flowing image is a visible/infrared satellite image with all sorts of wacky dynamic model forecasts superimposed.
Cyclone ULUI – Visible/IR Image with Dynamic Model Forecasts Superimposed. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 18, 2010 at 00:00UTC. Source: Digital Typhoon. Click image to enlarge.
For additional images click on the following links:
ULUI History and Related Links:
Posted in Cairns, Queensland, storm, TC ULUI, tropical cyclone | Tagged: australia, Cyclone ULUI, TC ULUI, ULUI Mar 18, ULUI UPDATE Mar 18 | 6 Comments »
Posted by feww on March 17, 2010
ULUI Goes to Australia
Two for the price of one cyclone!
See also:
TC ULUI is moving slowly (6 km/hr) toward the east coast of Australia (Queensland).
Two of the available models (NGP and CMC) suggest ULUI could make landfall close to 20ºS latitude which could mean it will strike the Australian coast as a cat 3A or 2B hurricane on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale with sustained winds of up to 180 km/hr (gusts of up to 230 km/hr).
A third model (GFS) predicts landfall south of the 20ºS latitude, which might suggest a Category 1 hurricane force, or weaker, with sustained winds of up to 150km/hr (wind gusts of about 180 km/hr).
JTWC suggest land fall south of 21.5ºS latitude with sustained winds of up to 120 km/hr (wind gusts of about 155 km/hr).
ULUI is currently located about 1,320km NORTHEAST of Townsville, and 1,300km NNE of Rockhampton, QLD, Australia.
Moderators’ forecast concurs closer with the CMC model, for now.
Dynamic Model Forecasts. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
Tropical Cyclone ULUI showing near-perfect longitudinal symmetry – Visible image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 17, 2010 at 00:00UTC. Source: Digital Typhoon. Click image to enlarge.
Two for the price of one cyclone!
Cyclone TOMAS is still going strong with sustained winds of about 220 km/hr and gusts of up to 260 km/hr. Its currently located near 26.3S, 176.5W.
TCs ULUI and TOMAS – Visible image – MTSAT EAST (NOAA)
Other Images and Animations
Related Links:
Posted in australia, Cyclone TOMAS, Queensland, storm, ULUI | Tagged: Cyclone ULUI, TC 20P, TC TOMAS, TC ULUI, Tomas latest, tropical cyclone, Tropical Cyclone ULUI, ULUI latest image | 10 Comments »
Posted by feww on March 16, 2010
ULUI a Super Cyclone, Again
ULUI Has Refueled, Revving Up Toward Queensland, Australia
Super Cyclone ULUI is moving toward the coat of Queensland, eastern Australia, with maximum sustained winds of more than 250 km/hr (~ 135 kt) and wind gusts of up to 325 km/hr.
Depending on how far south of the coast it lands, the cyclone could strike Queensland as a Category 1 to 3A hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale.
Visible/IR images of Super Cyclone ULUI (TC 20P) on its way to the coast of QLD, Australia. (Top to bottom: 8km, 4km and 2km resolution). Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
Wind Shear. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
Model Forecast Tracks. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
Related Links:
Posted in cyclone, Cyclone ULUI QLD, storm, tropical cyclone, ULUI Australia | Tagged: Cyclone ULUI, TC ULUI, Tropical Cyclone ULUI | 11 Comments »
Posted by feww on March 15, 2010
Birth and Life of ULUI
Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 15, 2009 at 06:00UTC. Source: Digital Typhoon. Click image to enlarge.
ULUI Close Up
Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 15, 2009 at 06:00UTC. Source: Digital Typhoon. Click image to enlarge.
How TOMAS and ULUI were born:
Latest Brief:
- TOMAS: Sustained Wind speeds of about 213 km/hr (115 kt) with wind gusts of up to 260 km/hr (140 kt)
- ULUI: Sustained Wind speeds of about 242 km/hr (130 kt) with wind gusts of up to 300 km/hr (160 kt)
[Intensity is based on PGTW and KNES DVORAK intensity estimates of 130 kt, JTWC said.]
Related Links:
Posted in Cyclone ULUI, storm | Tagged: cyclone ului image, cyclone ului update, TC ULUI, TOMAS MTSAT | 13 Comments »
Posted by feww on March 15, 2010
TOMAS a Cat 3B hurricane, still intensifying; ULUI weakened to a Cat 3C
In the last 24 hours, Cyclone TOMAS has grown into a Cat 3B Hurricane force on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale and is still intensifying. ULUI has weakened from a super cyclone force to a Cat 3C hurricane in the same period.
A very low probability of increased interaction exists between the two systems. If the odds were to improve, whereby pinwheeling occurred between the two cyclones, TOMAS could change track, moving westward, then wobbling close to, around, or over the Fiji islands for a much longer period than anticipated.
Cyclone TOMAS. Latest GOES Image as of posting. (GOES Sat. NOAA). Click image to enlarge.
(L to R) Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS. MTSAT Colorized IR Image (NOAA). Click image to enlarge.
Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 15 at 00:01UTC
- Position: 15.6S 179.4W
- Max Sustained Winds : ~ 195km/hr (105 kts)
- Wind Gusts: ~ 240km/hr ( 130 kts)
- Movement: Southwestward
- Forward Speed: 5km/hr (~ 03 kts)
- Location: 500km (270 NM) NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
- Comment: TOMAS is a Category 3B hurricane on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale. The cyclone has good radial outflow and is experiencing low vertical wind shear. It is expected to continue intensifying over the next 36 – 48 hours until it experiences lower ocean heat content and higher vertical wind shear.
- Maximum significant wave height: 9m (27 feet)
- Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon, CIMSS and others.
- Comment: TOMAS is expected to transition to an extratropical system in 96 to 120 hours.
Cyclone TOMAS: Latest forecast track. Source: JTWC. [Nature’s acute geometry, or wishful thinking?]
Cyclone ULUI (TC 20P) Details on March 15 at 00:01UTC
- Position: 12.9S 159.2E
- Max Sustained Winds: 205 km/hr (~ 110 kts)
- Wind Gusts: 270km/hr (~ 145 kts)
- Movement: West
- Forward Speed: ~ 12 km/hr ( 7 kts)
- Location: About 695km (375 NM) WNW of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
- Maximum significant wave height: 10m (30 feet)
- Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon and others.
- Comment: ULUI is expected to start dissipating over water after about 96 to 120 hours.
Cyclone ULUI: Latest projected path. Source: JTWC.
MTSAT (NOAA) images from NOAA– Click images to enlarge and animate.
MTSAT – IR Image
MTSAT – Colorized IR Image
MTSAT – Visible Image
Related Links:
Posted in Cyclone TOMAS, Cyclone ULUI, hurricane, storm, tropical cyclone | Tagged: 'never-ending storms, Cyclone Update 15 March, extratropical system, JUPITER, Mungava, pinwheeling, Rennell, Super Cyclone ULUI, TC TOMAS, TC Tomas Update, TC ULUI, TOMAS forecast track, Tomas projected path, Tomas trajectory, ULUI Update | 17 Comments »
Posted by feww on March 14, 2010
Super Cyclone ULUI a Cat 5 Storm; Tomas, at Cat 1 force, Intensifying
With Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) still 620km away, Fijians on Vanua Levu island probably know by now what to expect because of strong winds and heavy rains that are already arriving , leaving a foretaste of what is about to come their way.
Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 14 at 00:01UTC
- Position: 13.3S 179.5W
- Max Sustained Winds : ~ 145km/hr (78 kts)
- Wind Gusts: ~ 175km/hr ( 94 kts)
- Movement: Southwestward
- Forward Speed: 10km/hr (~ 06 kts)
- Location: 620km (335 NM) NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
- Comment: Tomas is at a Category 1 strength on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale and is expected to continue intensifying over the next 48 to 72 hours until ocean heat content decreases and vertical wind shear increases.
- Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon, CIMSS and others.
Roll down for images.
Super Cyclone ULUI, Cat 5 Hurricane Strength, Flexing Muscles on Open Water
If the super cyclone continues on its actual path (NOT forecast path), it could destroy most structures on the Island of Rennell, aka Mungava (Pop 3,000).
Super Cyclone ULUI (TC 20P) Details on March 14 at 00:01UTC
- Position: 12.7S 161.6E
- Max Sustained Winds: 260 km/hr (~ 140 kts)
- Wind Gusts: 325km/hr (~ 175 kts)
- Movement: Northwest
- Forward Speed: ~13 km/hr ( 7 kts)
- Location: About 425km (230 NM) WNW of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
- Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon and others.
Super Cyclone ULUI. IR/WV Difference. Source: CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.
Roll down for more images.
Related Links:
IMAGE UPDATE
The following MTSAT (NOAA) images were added at 08:00UTC – Click images to enlarge.
MTSAT – IR Image
MTSAT – Colorized IR Image
MTSAT – Visible Image
On Mar 14 at 08:00UTC
- Super Cyclone ULUI sustained wind speeds was recorded at 265km/hr
- -Cyclone Tomas intensified to a category 2A hurricane force (see below) with sustained winds of about 160km/hr
Posted in Cyclone TOMAS, Cyclone ULUI, hurricane force, storm, tropical cyclone | Tagged: 'never-ending storms, Cyclone TOMAS, Cyclone ULUI, Cyclone Update 14 March, JUPITER, Mungava, Rennell, Super Cyclone ULUI, TC TOMAS, TC Tomas Update, TC ULUI, Tomas projected path, Tomas trajectory, ULUI Update | 19 Comments »
Posted by feww on March 13, 2010
Don’t Name Your Kids after Cyclones!
What if in your life time climate change spawned ‘never-ending’ cyclones … storms that waxed and waned as they crisscrossed the planet, but never dissipated … cyclones that spawned other cyclones on the warm ocean waters, each time they passed near the point of their inception, a place near you …
It’s not theoretically inconceivable … you may yet drive the planet to the edge …
Where is Tomas Holidaying?
On its projected path, Tomas could cause unimaginable damage to the Main Fiji Islands. IF the cyclone were to dump its full load of precipitation on Fiji, it would submerge the two main isles under 6 feet of water.
(L to R) TC ULUI (TC 20P) and TC TOMAS (TC 19P). Source: MTSAT Easter Sector (NOAA). Click Images to enlarge.
Other Images and Animations
Cyclone TOMAS Current Projected Path Takes it Right through Fiji Islands. Source: JTWC
AIRS image on March 11 at 20:10 UTC (3:10 p.m. ET) showed a developing storm with a large cluster of high, cold (purple), strong thunderstorms around Tomas’ center. Source: NASA/JPL
Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 13 at 00:01UTC
- Position: 11.7S 178.1W
- Max Sustained Winds: ~ 120km/hr (65 kts)
- Wind Gusts: ~ 150km/hr ( 80 kts)
- Movement: 230 degrees
- Forward Speed: ~ 10km/hr (06 kts)
- Location: 890km (440 NM) NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
- Comment: High ocean heat content and strong outflow will help Tomas to intensify steadily. Tomas could reach Category 4A, possibly as high as Cat 4c, strength on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale.
Tomas has “tightly-wrapped convective banding around a well-defined low-level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates TC 19P is just to the south of an anticyclone that is enhancing excellent equatorward outflow,” JTWC said.
- Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon, CIMSS and others.
–
Cyclone ULUI: The Loitering Devil on the Deep Blue Sea
TC ULUI. Source MTSAT (NOAA). Click Images to enlarge.
Forecast Details on March 13 at 06:00UTC
- Position: 13.9S 163.3E
- Max Sustaind Winds: ~ 110 km/hr (~ 60 kts)
- Wind Gusts: 140km/hr (~ 75 kts)
- Movement: 290 degrees
- Forward Speed: ~5km/hr (~ 3 kts)
- Location: About 195km (105 NM) WNW of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
- Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon and others.
Infrared Image of Ului’s Cold T-storms
An AIRS image on March 12 at 9:17 a.m. ET showed a well-developed storm with a large cluster of high, cold (purple), strong thunderstorms around the center of Tropical Storm Ului. Source: NASA
Related Links:
Posted in Cyclone TOMAS, Cyclone ULUI, storm, tropical cyclone | Tagged: 'never-ending storms, Cyclone TOMAS, Cyclone ULUI, JUPITER, TC TOMAS, TC ULUI, Tomas projected path, Tomas trajectory | 19 Comments »
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