New Zealand Earthquake Damage Estimate

Credit Suisse says the cost would be less than US$1 billion

[A billion here, 10 billion there, and pretty soon…]

“Sunday’s magnitude 6.5 earthquake, centered in Cook Strait, released energy equivalent to 100 nuclear bombs of the size which devastated Hiroshima,” said NZ scientists.

[Before FIRE-EARTH using Hiroshima atom bomb as a unit of measuring destructive energy for a visualization of  stress energy released by earthquakes no one else had made the comparison. Now everyone and their uncle copy the blog.]

Credit Suisse has estimated the cost of Sunday night’s quake in Cook Strait to be below US$1 billion ($1.3 billion), according to the Insurance Council of New Zealand.

[NZ may well prove to be the straw that broke the camel’s bank!]

The dealing room in BNZ’s Harbour Quay building following Sunday’s M6.5 quake. The building will remain closed until further notice. Image: BNZ via Stuff New Zealand.

“Damage in Wellington has been limited largely to burst pipes, some internal damage to buildings and superficial structural damage. Cordons were still up in Featherston St today because of the dangers of loose masonry and glass.

“The Marlborough town of Seddon was also affected by the quake, with cracks opening up in a dam built on Starborough Creek which flows through the township about 15km away. The dam held 250,000 tonnes of water, being slowly released under an emergency action plan, and was not considered a threat to people living below.

“Out of the 2500 buildings in Wellington’s CBD, much of the area on reclaimed land, 35 were found to have external damage,” said the report.

NZ Quake Links:

On June 13, 2011, in reply to a comment posted on the blog, FIRE-EARTH said:

As if by a massive irony, your most populated cities are situated right above geological nightmares–a fact that your government scientists don’t know, or won’t tell you.

https://feww.wordpress.com/2011/02/23/christchurch-could-vanish-from-google-map/#comment-13349

On March 4, 2011, in reply to a comment posted on the blog, FIRE-EARTH said:

Our advice to YOU and all intelligent people in Wellington area
1. There’s a frighteningly large buildup of tectonic stress energy right under your feet.
2. RUN while you’re still alive, before the next exodus bottleneck makes it impossible to flee the danger zone.

https://feww.wordpress.com/2011/02/24/new-zealand-earthquake-update-feb-24/#comment-12497
For additional FIRE-EARTH comments on NZ seismic hazards, see also
https://feww.wordpress.com/2011/02/24/new-zealand-earthquake-update-feb-24/#comment-12474

To New Zealand PM and his censorship psychos:

We haven’t started laughing yet, but it’s getting increasingly more difficult to hold back the giggles.

California Earthquake Forecast – Update 3

For background and latest update see:

• California Earthquake Forecast – Update 2 [August 11, 2009 ]
• California Earthquake Forecast 2009 – UPDATE [August 4, 2009]
• California Earthquake Forecast 2009 [March 24, 2009]

• California Earthquake Forecast – Update 4  [April 12, 2010]

Up to three earthquakes measuring magnitude 6.2 or greater could strike Western US in 2009

California Earthquake Forecast: UPDATE #3

Magnitude 7.6  to  7.9 earthquake could strike the SF Bay Area, northern California in 2009

FEWW Moderators Forecast a magnitude 7.6 to 7.9  earthquake and two possible aftershocks measuring about 5.5 Mw (subject to the magnitude of the mainshock) for the San Francisco Bay Area, northern California in 2009.

Details of EQ Forecast

• Magnitude: 7.6 to 7.9 Mw

• Provisional date:  September 28, 2009
• Date uncertainty: ~ 90 Days
• Epicenter: 37° 52′ 20″N, 122° 15′ 10″W
• Depth: 9.0 km
• Depth uncertainty: ±2.8 km
• Location: ~2.88 km (1.79miles ) east of Berkeley Fire Departments: Fire Prevention & Disaster Preparedness (CA 94702).
• Location uncertainty:
  • Up to 5 km to the west of Hayward Fault
  • Up to 14 km NNW within a 5-km corridor along the Hayward Fault
  • Up to 22 km SSE within a 5-km corridor along the Hayward Fault

• Probability of of occurrence 0.8 [77%]

Map of N California Fault Lines. Source: USGS

Satellite map of forecast epicenter. Source: Google Maps [See terms of use for copyright information.]

FEWW Bay Area Earthquake Forecast Uncertainty Zone. Source: Google Earth [See terms of use for copyright information.]

Note: This forecast does NOT preclude the possibility of other seismic events in the area at any time.

Related Links:

• FEWW Earthquake Links
• California Earthquake Forecast – Update 2 [August 11, 2009 ]
• California Earthquake Forecast 2009 – UPDATE [August 4, 2009]
• California Earthquake Forecast 2009 [March 24, 2009]

California Earthquake Forecast – Update 2

California forecast earthquake may be more powerful than originally estimated

FEWW Moderators have upgraded their forecast for a California earthquake to a Magnitude 7.9 event.

For initial forecast see California Earthquake Forecast 2009 [March 24, 2009]

For Update # 1 see:  California Earthquake Forecast 2009 – UPDATE [August 4, 2009]

San Andreas Fault

The topographic texture of western California is controlled by the San Andreas fault system, the tectonic expression of the Pacific plate sliding northwestward along the western margin of the North American plate. Hundreds of miles long and up to a mile wide, the San Andreas Fault Zone has been active since its original development in the Tertiary.  About 10 percent of the present plate motion is compressional, which means horizontal forces are shortening and wrinkling the crust along the fault zone. This movement has created the parallel coastal northwest-southeast mountain ranges such as the Coastal Ranges along California’s central coast. Comparatively quiet during the period between the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta event, the fault is again showing activity. Image and caption: nationalatlas.gov

Fault map for San Francisco Bay Area from http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/pickcity.html, annotated and colors modified by User: Leonard G. Released into the public domain (Leonard G. ).

Related Links:

• California Earthquake Forecast 2009
• California Earthquake Forecast 2009 – UPDATE
• FEWW Earthquake Links

California Earthquake Forecast 2009 – UPDATE

For initial forecast see:

California Earthquake Forecast 2009

Based on the recent seismic activity in the Gulf of California, FEWW Moderators revise their forecast for California earthquakes in 2009 as follows:

(i) A magnitude 7.4 earthquake and two strong aftershocks (5.5+ Mw) could strike California in 2009 with a probability of 0.9 (88%).

(ii) The estimated date of occurrence:  September 28, 2009

(iii) The occurrence date uncertainty: ~ +90 days from the forecast date

(iv) The epicenter is located in a built-up area. [Further information may be released later.]

(v) In addition to the above event, two other powerful earthquakes could strike the western United States in 2009.  (Probability of occurrence for a  single event is 77% and for the two events, 64%).

Related Links:

• California Earthquake Forecast 2009
• Earthquakes