Fire Earth

Earth is fighting to stay alive. Mass dieoffs, triggered by anthropogenic assault and fallout of planetary defense systems offsetting the impact, could begin anytime!

Posts Tagged ‘Tectonics Update’

Tectonics Update – January 28

Posted by feww on January 28, 2012

Large Quake Measuring about 8.3Mw Could Strike Near Iwaki, Japan: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show a large earthquake measuring up to 8.3Mw could strike within a 50-km radius of Iwaki, Japan.

Forecast Details

  • Magnitude: Up to 8.3Mw
  • Position: 50km radius of Iwaki, Fukushima Prefecture, Japan
  • Probability of Occurrence
    • Feb – May 2012: 74% (Peak Occurrence: April 18, am JST)
    • Jun –  Nov 2012: 68%
    • Dec 2012 – Dec 2015 : ~ 50%
    • Jan – Apr 2016: >70%
  • Probability of Event occurring onshore: 60%

[NOTE: This forecast may be affected by other seismic events in the region.   For UPDATES see comments section below.]

Previous Forecasts

Related Links

Posted in Earthquake Warning, earthquake warning Honshu, Earthquakes, Megathrust earthquakes | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Global Disaster Forecast – UPDATE 19 Mar

Posted by feww on March 19, 2011

THE NEXT MAJOR DISASTER COULD STRIKE THE U.S.

The next major anthropogenic or human-enhanced natural disaster [e.g., climate related] could occur in the United States with a probability of 0.75

The world’s next catastrophic tectonics event could occur in

  1. Western United States, Iceland, or Taiwan [Probability of 0.74]
  2. New Zealand Region, Indonesia, FIJI Islands, or Chile [Probability of 0.73]
  3. Japan Region [Probability of 0.72]

FIRE-EARTH disaster forecasts cover 2 levels:

  • Specific Events
  • Global Impact

An explanation of the relationship between the disasters that were forecast for 2010 and 2011-2012 and beyond and their Global Impact has been previously posted on the blog. See below for links:

2010 Disasters: Planetary collapse driven by man-made cataclysms
Fire-Earth Moderators believe at least one disaster could strike somewhere on the planet each day, throughout 2010. The outlook for 2011 and beyond …Go to links page for 2010 Disaster Calendar

2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010: FIRE-EARTH Forecast
Humans
continued to devour energy at a rate of 17.3terrawatt in 2011, when maximum ‘safe’ limit was less than 1.9terrawatt … Go to links page for 2011 Disaster Calendar

Related Links:

  • EQJP [Includes summary of Japan’s recent earthquakes and forecasts]

Links to Disaster Calendars:

Posted in 2011 disaster forecast, 2011 disasters, earthquake 2011, Japan Earthquakes 2011, new zealand earthquake 2011 | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Global Disaster Forecast – 16 Mar 2011

Posted by feww on March 16, 2011

This is an amendment to an earlier release dated March 12, 2011

In Global Tectonics Warning – March 12

FIRE-EARTH FORECAST:

NEXT MAJOR TECTONICS EVENT COULD OCCUR IN THE U.S.

Based on their Earth Model, FEWW Moderators believe the world’s next catastrophic tectonics event could occur in western United States with a probability of 0.74.

Amended to:

THE WORLD’S NEXT MAJOR DISASTER COULD OCCUR IN THE U.S.

The world’s next major human-enhanced natural disaster [e.g., climate related] could occur in the United States with a probability of 0.75

The world’s next catastrophic tectonics event could occur in

  1. Western United States, Taiwan or Indonesia [Probability of 0.74]
  2. New Zealand or Chile [Probability of 0.73]
  3. Japan Region [Probability of 0.72]

Related Links:

  • EQJP [Includes Summary of Japan Earthquake Forecasts]

Posted in 2011 chile earthquakes, 2011 disaster forecast, 2011 disasters, earthquake warning Honshu, Earthquakes, FEWW Volcanic Forecast | Tagged: , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Tectonics Update – March 10

Posted by feww on March 10, 2011

Kilauea Volcanic Activity

Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH
Previous Volcano Alert Level: WARNING
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE


Lava fountains from the northeastern vent of the Kamoamoa eruption. Pu`u `Ō `ō cone is seen in the background. Credit: HVO. Click image to enlarge.

Issued: March 9, 2011, 03:45UTC
Source: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
Notice Number: 2011/H3

  • Eruption on Kīlauea volcano: East rift zone [end of the 2.3 km Kamoamoa fissure located between Pu’u ‘Ō’ō and Nāpau Crater.”Lava erupted from the western end of the fissure, which is near the eastern rim of Nāpau Crater, has formed a channelized ‘a’ā flow that extends 2.9 km (1.8 mi) to the southwest. The lava flow ranges from 80 to 290 m (260 to 950 ft) wide, but the active channel within the flow is only about 20 m (65 ft) wide.”
  • Lava spatter As high as 50 m
  • SO2 emission rate down to 4,400 tpd
  • Deflation slowing at both the summit and east rift zone.


A view of Halema`uma`u vent using thermal imaging. “The lava level dropped considerably over the past several days, retreating to a narrow opening deep within the vent cavity.” Source: HVO.  Click images to enlarge.


Extent of the Kamoamoa Fissure eruption, beginning March 5, 2011. The line of fissures extends 2.3 km, between Nāpau Crater and Pu`u `Ō `ō. The peach colored flow shown on the map is from the 1997 Nāpau Crater eruption. Source: HVO.

Related Links:

JAPAN’s Sendai Quake Aftershocks

At least 25 aftershocks have been reported by Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) since yesterday’s powerful 7.2Mw quake which struck off the coast of Miyagi Prefecture, about 168km east of the city of Sendai.

Two of the largest shocks measured M6.1 and 6.8, striking Sanriku Oki region at 03:45 JST [03:51 JST 10 Mar 2011] and 06:24 JST  [06:29 JST 10 Mar 2011] respectively.

FIRE-EARTH forecasts intense seismic activity in Japan Region during the 2011 – 2015 period.

Further deatails would be released on the need-to-know basis, partly to prevent Internet prophets from cashing in on FIRE-EARTH forecasts.


Sendai 7.2 earthquake. List of aftershocks. Source: JMA.
Click image to enlarge.

Related Links:

Recent Significant Earthquakes

PNG

  • Magnitude 6.5 – NEW BRITAIN REGION, PAPUA NEW GUINEA –
    • Wednesday, March 09, 2011 at 21:24:51 UTC
    • Depth: 29km
    • Location:  6.022°S, 149.659°E

CHINA

  • Magnitude 5.4 – MYANMAR-CHINA BORDER REGION
    • The quake was a magnitude 5.8 shock striking Yingjiang County in southwest China’s Yunnan Province, Xinhua said.
    • At  least 24 people were killed and more than 250 others injured as a result.
    • The shock also destroyed about 1,000 buildings.

New Zealand

  • Magnitude 4.5 aftershock strikes 10 km east of Christchurch at a depth of 10km.
  • Magnitude 4.0 aftershock strikes about 5km from Lyttelton at a depth of 10km.

Related Links:

Posted in earthquake 2011, Japan earthquake forecast, Japan Earthquakes 2011, Sendai quake, Yunnan earthquake | Tagged: , , , , | Leave a Comment »