Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15

TOMAS a Cat 3B hurricane, still intensifying; ULUI weakened to a Cat 3C

In the last 24 hours, Cyclone TOMAS has grown into a Cat 3B Hurricane force on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale and is still intensifying.  ULUI has weakened from a super cyclone force to a Cat 3C hurricane in the same period.

A very low probability of increased interaction exists between the two  systems. If the odds were to improve, whereby pinwheeling occurred between the two cyclones, TOMAS could change track, moving westward, then wobbling close to, around, or over the Fiji islands for a much longer period than anticipated.

Cyclone TOMAS. Latest GOES Image as of posting. (GOES Sat. NOAA). Click image to enlarge.

(L to R) Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS. MTSAT Colorized IR Image (NOAA).  Click image to enlarge.

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Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 15 at 00:01UTC

• Position:  15.6S 179.4W
• Max Sustained Winds :  ~ 195km/hr (105 kts)
• Wind Gusts: ~ 240km/hr ( 130 kts)
• Movement: Southwestward
• Forward Speed:  5km/hr (~ 03 kts)
• Location: 500km  (270 NM) NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
• Comment: TOMAS is a Category 3B hurricane on the  FEWW New Hurricane Scale. The cyclone has good radial outflow and is experiencing low vertical wind shear. It is  expected to continue intensifying over the next 36 – 48 hours until it experiences lower ocean heat content and higher vertical wind shear.
• Maximum significant wave height: 9m (27 feet)
• Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon, CIMSS and others.
• Comment: TOMAS is expected to transition to an extratropical system in 96 to 120 hours.

Cyclone TOMAS: Latest forecast track. Source: JTWC. [Nature’s acute geometry, or wishful thinking?]

Cyclone ULUI  (TC 20P) Details on March 15 at 00:01UTC

• Position: 12.9S 159.2E
• Max Sustained Winds:  205 km/hr (~ 110 kts)
• Wind Gusts: 270km/hr (~ 145 kts)
• Movement:  West
• Forward Speed:  ~ 12 km/hr ( 7 kts)
• Location: About 695km (375 NM) WNW of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
• Maximum significant wave height: 10m (30 feet)
• Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon and others.
• Comment: ULUI is expected to start dissipating over water after about 96 to 120 hours.

Cyclone ULUI: Latest projected path.  Source: JTWC.

MTSAT (NOAA) images from NOAA– Click images to enlarge and animate.

MTSAT – IR Image

MTSAT – Colorized IR Image

MTSAT – Visible Image

• Water Vapor Loop

Related Links:

• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14

Super Cyclone ULUI a Cat 5 Storm; Tomas, at Cat 1 force,  Intensifying

With Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) still 620km away, Fijians on Vanua Levu island probably know by now what to expect because of strong winds and heavy rains that are already arriving , leaving a foretaste of  what is about to come their way.

Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 14 at 00:01UTC

• Position:  13.3S 179.5W
• Max Sustained Winds :  ~ 145km/hr (78 kts)
• Wind Gusts: ~ 175km/hr ( 94 kts)
• Movement: Southwestward
• Forward Speed:  10km/hr (~ 06 kts)
• Location: 620km  (335 NM) NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
• Comment: Tomas is at a Category 1 strength on the  FEWW New Hurricane Scale and is  expected to continue intensifying over the next 48 to 72 hours until ocean heat content decreases and vertical wind shear increases.
• Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon, CIMSS and others.

Roll down for images.

Super Cyclone ULUI, Cat 5 Hurricane Strength, Flexing Muscles on Open Water

If the super cyclone continues on its actual path (NOT forecast path), it could destroy most structures on the Island of Rennell, aka Mungava (Pop 3,000).

Super Cyclone ULUI  (TC 20P) Details on March 14 at 00:01UTC

• Position: 12.7S 161.6E
• Max Sustained Winds:  260 km/hr (~ 140 kts)
• Wind Gusts: 325km/hr (~ 175 kts)
• Movement:  Northwest
• Forward Speed:  ~13 km/hr ( 7 kts)
• Location: About 425km (230 NM) WNW of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
• Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon and others.

Super Cyclone ULUI. IR/WV Difference. Source: CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Roll down for more images.

Related Links:

• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

IMAGE UPDATE

The following MTSAT (NOAA) images were added at 08:00UTC – Click images to enlarge.

MTSAT – IR Image

MTSAT – Colorized IR Image

MTSAT – Visible Image

On Mar 14 at 08:00UTC

• Super Cyclone ULUI sustained wind speeds was recorded at 265km/hr
• -Cyclone Tomas intensified to a category 2A hurricane force (see below) with sustained winds of about 160km/hr

TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13

Don’t Name Your Kids after Cyclones!

What if in your life time climate change spawned ‘never-ending’ cyclones … storms that waxed and waned as they crisscrossed the planet, but never dissipated … cyclones that  spawned other cyclones on the warm ocean waters, each time they passed near the point of their inception, a place near you …

It’s not theoretically inconceivable … you may yet drive the planet to the edge …

Where is Tomas Holidaying?

On its projected path, Tomas could cause unimaginable damage to the Main Fiji Islands. IF the cyclone were to dump its full load of precipitation on Fiji, it would submerge the two main isles under 6 feet of water.

(L to R) TC ULUI (TC 20P) and TC TOMAS  (TC 19P). Source: MTSAT Easter Sector  (NOAA). Click Images to enlarge.

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Other Images and Animations

• Visible
• Visible Loop
• IR
• IR Loop

Cyclone TOMAS Current Projected Path Takes it Right through Fiji Islands. Source: JTWC

AIRS image on March 11 at 20:10 UTC  (3:10 p.m. ET) showed a developing storm with a large cluster of high,  cold (purple), strong thunderstorms around Tomas’ center. Source: NASA/JPL

Tropical Cyclone Tomas (TC 19P) – Summary of Details on March 13 at 00:01UTC

• Position:  11.7S 178.1W
• Max Sustained Winds:  ~ 120km/hr (65 kts)
• Wind Gusts: ~ 150km/hr ( 80 kts)
• Movement: 230 degrees
• Forward Speed:  ~ 10km/hr (06 kts)
• Location: 890km  (440 NM) NORTHEAST of NADI, FIJI
• Comment: High ocean heat content and strong outflow will help Tomas to intensify steadily. Tomas could reach Category 4A, possibly as high as Cat 4c,  strength on the  FEWW New Hurricane Scale.
  Tomas has “tightly-wrapped convective banding around a well-defined low-level circulation center. Upper level analysis indicates TC 19P is just to the south of an anticyclone that is enhancing excellent equatorward outflow,” JTWC said.
• Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon, CIMSS and others.

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Cyclone ULUI: The Loitering Devil on the Deep Blue Sea

TC ULUI. Source MTSAT (NOAA). Click Images to enlarge.

• Image
• Loop

Forecast Details on March 13 at 06:00UTC

• Position: 13.9S 163.3E
• Max Sustaind Winds: ~ 110 km/hr (~ 60 kts)
• Wind Gusts: 140km/hr (~ 75 kts)
• Movement: 290 degrees
• Forward Speed:  ~5km/hr (~ 3 kts)
• Location: About 195km (105 NM) WNW of Espiritu Santo, Vanuatu
• Sources: JTWC, Digital Typhoon and others.

Infrared Image of Ului’s Cold T-storms

An AIRS image on March 12 at 9:17 a.m. ET showed a well-developed storm with a large cluster of high, cold (purple), strong thunderstorms around the center of Tropical Storm Ului. Source: NASA

Related Links:

• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale