Spring Officially Starts Today

 It’s Flooding Awareness Week nationwide!

Life-threatening Floods Possible in the Plains and Mississippi Valley: NWS

“A tremendous setup for heavy rainfall is unfolding in the central/southern Mississippi River Valley and Plains. The weather pattern is very slow-moving, so thunderstorms with heavy rain will repeatedly move over the same area resulting in some locations receiving a foot of rain through midweek.”

US Natural Hazards Map. Source: NWS. Map enhanced by FIRE-EARTH

Disaster Calendar 2012 – March 20

[March 20, 2012]  Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.  SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,457 Days Left to the ‘Worst Day’ in Human History

• Mid-Americanweather expected to include rain, flash floods, wild fire danger, severe storms: NWS
• Mississippi River Valley. Severe weather, torrential rains and flash flooding could occur across the southern Plains and lower to middle Mississippi River Valley, NWS reported.
• “An increased risk for wildfires is expected over much of the high plains.”

• “To the north and west of the rain and flash flood area, Red Flag Warnings have been posted across the northern High Plains, where little precipitation is expected.”
• “Critical fire danger has been forecast today for parts of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma and Texas.”
• Rain and thunderstorms expected from the eastern Great Lakes to the Eastern Seaboard and from southern New England to northern South Carolina.
• “Heavy snow is possible over several areas of western Washington, central Montana, northwest Wyoming and southwest Colorado.”

• Oklahoma, USA. Power outages reported as flood warning is issued for Oklahoma City area, flash flooding in Norman
• Idaho.  Flood warnings or advisories have been issued for most of south-central and southeastern Idaho: NWS.
  • Torrential rains  over the weekend intensifies the flooding in Fremont County
• Illinois. Flood warnings have been issued for the Illinois River Basin: NWS
  • Risk of severe weather extends over a large area from southwest to northeast Texas, southeastern Oklahoma and part  of southwest Arkansas.
  • “The Storm Prediction Center received 14 reports of tornadoes Sunday – 13 in Nebraska and 1 in South Dakota. Twelve of the Nebraska tornadoes were reported in and around North Platte in Lincoln County with the other reported near Valentine in Cherry County. The South Dakota tornado was reported 21 miles south of Mission in Todd County. Hail at 4.25-inch diameter was reported 19 miles south-southeast of Mission, which joined Quinn in Pennington County, SD, reported a peak wind of 80 mph.”
• Texas.  At least 3 tornadoes touched down in Texas. The largest hit near the town of Natalia injuring two people and damaging 6 homes, according to SPC.
  • However, the Medina County Sheriff’s Office “received over 300 calls indicating there is damage or injuries” due to the storm, said a woman from the sheriff’s office, local media reported.
  • “It struck us pretty hard,” she said from the county, which is about 30 miles west of San Antonio. “At this point, we have unknown (amount) of injuries, but we have a lot of damage.”

Other Global Disasters

• Queensland, Australia.  Townsville in the Australian state of Queensland has been declared a disaster zone after a “freak storm” described as “mini tornado” left a 500m path of destruction, leaving at least 60 homes and businesses with major structural damage, a report said.
  • The tornado reportedly packed wind of higher than 111km/h [an EF2 tornado on the Enhanced Fujita Tornado Scale.]
  • The worst affected areas were suburbs of Vincent, Gulliver, Currajong and Pimlico, which remain in blackout.

• North Island, New Zealand.  A severe storm with high winds pounded New Zealand’s North Island felling trees, knocking out power lines and causing extensive flooding.
  • The storm dumped more than two months’ worth of rain on parts of the region, a report said.
  • Severe weather closed schools and forced dozens of flight cancellations in and out of Auckland Airport.
  • More wild weather, torrential rains and flooding are forecast for the region.

• Germany.  The number of farms reporting Schmallenberg virus have jumped up by more than 10 percent in seven days. [up from 847 farms on March 5, and 908 farms on March 12]
  • Sheep, cattle and goat from 1,000 farms [up from 847 farms on March 5, and 908 farms on March 12] have been tested positive for Schmallenberg virus (SBV) as of March 19, 2012.
  • “The cases occurred in 160 cattle holdings, 799 sheep holdings and 41 goat holdings.”  FLI reported.

© 2010 Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Bundesforschungsinstitut für Tiergesundheit

• France. A total of 824 farms have reported SBV infection in France as of March 16, 2012. That is a rise of 23% in reported SBV cases in a week. (Source: Centre de ressources épidémiosurveillance).

Map of farms in France with reported SBV cases. Source: survepi.org; enhanced by FIRE-EARTH

• United Kingdom.  Schmallenberg virus (SBV) infection has been identified on 190 farms [up from 158 farms on March 12 and 92 farm on March 2] located in 22 counties. The rise represents a jump of more than 20 percent since March 12, 2012. “Fourteen of the positive cases have been diagnosed in cattle, 176 in sheep,” DEFRA reported.

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

Torrential Rains Deluge Central and S. America

Heavy Rains in Central and South America

Heavy rains, flooding and landslides across Central and South America have killed hundreds of people in Venezuela, Colombia, and Costa Rica and injured thousands more.

Map showing total rainfall amounts between November 25 and  December 1, 2010. The heaviest rainfall (dark blue) is more than 400 mm (~ 16 inches); the lightest rainfall (light green) is less  than 50 millimeters (~ 2 inches). Floods in Colombia have killed about 250 people, destroyed nearly 2,000 homes, damaged another 260,000 homes, and affected up to 2 million people by December 4, 2010.”Source: NASA E-O.

Related Links:

• 2010 disasters
• 2011 SIX TIMES MORE DISASTROUS THAN 2010
• Collapse Diary
• 2010 Disaster Calendar

• 2010 Disaster Calendar [DECEMBER]

China Under Deluge

At least 10 million People Affected by Floods in China

Torrential Rains, Flash Floods and Landslides Claim Hundreds of Lives in Southern China

Floods have destroyed more than 8,000 homes in one county alone, the Lichuan County of Jiangxi Province.

Original Caption: Flood heavily inundate the roads and vernacular dwellings, at Shayuan Village of Hecheng Town, Zixi County, southeast China’s Jiangxi Province, June 19, 2010. Rain-triggered landslides in eastern and southern China have killed at least 46 people since Sunday. As of 10:00 a.m. Saturday, downpours that began pounding southern China Sunday had left 88 people dead, 48 missing, and forced the evacuation of 757,000 residents from their homes. About 9.27 million people in Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Guizhou and Sichuan were affected by the heavy rains. as direct economic losses caused by the heavy rains have topped 10 billion yuan (about 1.46 billion U.S. dollars). The torrential downpours have also triggered flash floods, caused rivers to swell, inundated crops, and disrupted traffic and telecommunications. (Xinhua/Wu Zhigui). Image may b subject to copyright.

At least 10  million people in Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hunan, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Guizhou and Sichuan have been affected by the heavy rains, flooding and landslides, reports say, putting the direct economic loss at about $1.5 billion, so far.

More…

China may never recover from the disaster

“The scope and intensity of the rain have increased,” China’s National Meteorological Center on Sunday warned of more rainstorms to hit the affected regions.

“In parts of Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Henan, Guangxi and other areas of the south, the rainfall will be 100-180 millimetres. In other parts, the rainfall will be more than 200 millimetres.”

Up to 100,000 houses have been damaged or destroyed, with about 1 million hectares (2.47 million acres) of crops ruined, reports say.

Related Links:

• Global Flooding and Landslide Headlines
• Photos of sinkholes in China

• Deadly Landslides Kill 100 in Bangladesh, Burma, China
• Landslides Kill at least 44 in South China
• 2010 Disaster Calendar [JUNE]
• Towns and Villages Turned into Lakes
• Latest Landslide in China

• Oklahoma City Under Deluge
• U.S. Floods Hit Texas, Oregon, Wyoming, Utah, Missouri …
• Deadly Tornadoes Turn U.S. Midwest into ‘War Zone’
• A Dry Run for Climate Chaos Heading Our Way
• U.S. Warmer, Drier in March

• U.S. Weather at a Glance
• Southern U.S. Flooding Update
• FLOODING: Kentucky governor declares a state of emergency
• Rhode Island: Step Nearer Collapse?
• Flooding in Midwest Kills 1, Swamps Roads, Rail Line

• Arkansas Floodwaters Submerge Campground, Killing 16
• U.S. Floods Hit Texas, Oregon, Wyoming, Utah, Missouri …
• 2010 Disasters

Heavy rain causes Japan landslides, Killing 6

Torrential rains, flooding and landslides strike western Japan

Days of heavy rain caused flooding and landslides in western Japan. On Tuesday alone 7 cm of rain fell in just one hour in Hofu City, Yamaguchi prefecture [state.]

Torrential rains triggered floods and landslides in southern Japan, leaving at least six people dead and 10 others missing, including elderly residents at a nursing home, officials said Wednesday. Photo: AP. Image may be subject to copyright.

At least six people have been killed and nine others are missing after torrential rains caused floods and a landslide in Yamaguchi prefecture, western Japan.

Japan’s  meteorological agency has issued new warnings for more landslides and flooding in the region.

Residents of a nursing home were hit by a large landslide in Hofu City, Yamaguchi prefecture, about 750km west-southwest of Tokyo, prompting Japan’s self defense forces to send a rescue unit to the area.

Three people were killed and four others were missing at the nursing home, which was inundated with mud, according to Yamaguchi police.

“A total of 99 people had been housed at the nursing home, and we have confirmed 92 are alive,”  officials said.

“The mountain behind the nursing home collapsed at about 1.30pm and water gushed down in a mixture of red soil, mud and small rocks.” an eye witness was reported as saying.

A total of seven people were reported missing in Hofu and two more elsewhere in Yamaguchi prefecture, while another person was drowned in a flooded river in the neighboring Tottori prefecture.

There were some 30  significant landslides with 50 places flooded in and around Hofu city, officials were reported as saying.

At least 500 homes were flooded, with many buildings and cars engulfed in mud.

A cluster of medium sized quakes have recently struck the region.

Large mudslide, Hofu City, Japan. Freeze frame from AP video report. Image may be subject to copyright.

Heavy Rains in Southern Japan [NASA Earth Observatory]

The 2009 summer monsoon brought torrential rains to southwestern Japan in July. This image shows rainfall estimates for southern Japan and the surrounding region from July 20–27, produced by the near-real-time, multi-satellite precipitation analysis at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center. The analysis is based largely on observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite.

The most prominent feature is a large bull’s-eye of heavy rain centered over the northern part of Kyushu and the southwestern tip of Honshu. Rainfall totals exceeded 600 millimeters (about 24 inches, show in deep blue) at the center of this rain area, with lesser amounts of up to 150 millimeters (about 6 inches, shown in pale green) extending into central Japan. The heavy rains led to widespread flash flooding and numerous landslides. As of late July 2009, eight people were reported to have died as a result, with nine more still missing, according to news reports.

Each year as the Earth’s orbit brings the Northern Hemisphere back under more direct sunlight, the Asian continent starts to heat up. Land surfaces have less heat capacity than surrounding oceans, and they heat up faster. This land-sea temperature difference causes the winds to shift; warm air rises over the continent, and moist air from over the oceans flows in to replace it. In East Asia, the boundary between the warm, humid air from the ocean to the south and the continental air to the north often becomes more or less stationary.

This stationary front is known as the Baiu front in Japan and as the Mei-yu front in China. The location of the front migrates slowly northward over eastern China, Korea, Taiwan, and Japan over the course of spring and early summer, providing a focus for showers and rain, especially when waves of low pressure move along the front. Mei-yu means “plum rains” in Chinese, so called because the widespread rains often occur at the time when plums ripen, which is typically May and June. Baiu season in Japan typically runs from June through July.

Global satellite-based observations of heavy rain and flood inundation potential (calculated from a hydrological model) are updated every three hours and posted online on the Global Flood and Landslide Monitoring page on the TRMM Website.

NASA image by Jesse Allen, using near-real-time data provided courtesy of TRMM Science Data and Information System at Goddard Space Flight Center. Animations by Hal Pierce. Caption by Steve Lang.

Related Links:

• Six Die After Landslides Hit Japan [Linked to video]

Deadly Storms Strike Spain and France

High winds and torrential rains pummel northern Spain and south-western France

1. Three children were killed when the roof of a sports hall collapsed in the northern Spanish town of Sant Boi de Llobregat, near Barcelona, amid winds of up to 170km/h,  officials said. At least two other adults were also killed in Spain in separate storm-related incidents.

2. “Part of the building collapsed, there were between 20 and 30 youngsters inside. We know there are some dead and 16 injured,” a local government spokeswoman told AFP news agency.

A man looks at a tree split by a storm in Toulouse, France. Photograph: Pascal Pavani/AFP/Getty Images. Image may be subject to copyright.

3. “An official with the Barcelona region’s Interior Ministry said ‘many children’ were trapped in the debris at the sports center, without offering specific figures. She spoke on condition of anonymity under agency rules.” AP said.

4. A woman was killed when a wall collapsed on her in Barcelona, while a traffic officer was killed by a falling tree in Burela, Galicia.

5. More than a million homes in France are without electricity, while roads have been blocked, train services halted and airports closed, as huge waves battered the French and Spanish coastline, BBC quoted authorities as saying.

6. “The storms are expected to spread eastwards on Saturday bringing the risk of further heavy rain, strong winds and disruption, BBC weather experts said.”

7. “The number of clients who are cut off from the grid is rising from minute to minute as the storm moves eastwards,” a spokesperson for the electricity grid operator, ERDF, told local media.

8. The storm is reportedly the most powerful to hit south-western France  since December 1999, when about 90 people were killed and up to four million homes left without electricity.

Related News Link

• Fatal storms hit Spain and France

299 words, 8 paras, 1 image, 1 caption, 1 link

Cyclones Eric and Fanele Hit Madagascar

Cyclones Eric and Fanele

Earth Observatory: Image acquired January 19, 2008

Cyclone Fanele

Earth Observatory: Image acquired January 19, 2008

Madagascar was struck by by two tropical cyclones,  Eric and Fanele, this week. Cyclone Eric struck  the northeast coast on January 19, killing at least one person and leaving about a thousand others homeless. Cyclone Fanele made landfall on the southwest coast two days later with winds of of up to 210 kilometers per hour and torrential rains. More from Earth Observatory …

Torrential Rains Flood Northern Australia

Australia Floods caused by the wet phase of the monsoon, possibly intensified by an ongoing La Niña episode

Rainfall Totals

Earth Observatory: Image acquired December 24, 2008 – January 7, 2009

Rainfall Anomaly

Earth Observatory: Image acquired December 24, 2008 – January 7, 2009

Since late December 2008, torrential rains have caused severe flooding to parts of Queensland and Northern Territory in northern Australia. The start of the wet phase of the monsoon, possibly intensified by an ongoing La Niña episode, is thought to be the primary cause for the deluge. More from the Earth Observatory …

Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

Ike Loves Open Waters!

Ike has strengthened to a Category 2A on FEWW Hurricane Scale, and is expected to become a major hurricane (category 3A or above with winds of at least 178km/hr) before making landfall in the northern Gulf of Mexico (Southern Texas).

FEWW Comment: Ike left behind up to 200 people dead in Haiti and Cuba (the death toll could still rise) as it churned through the Caribbeans and is now bringing much wind and rain to the US.

Having previously strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane, Ike struck eastern Cuba as a category 3 hurricane, and there’s a significant probability that it might strengthen again to a category 3 hurricane, possibly stronger, as it moves over the warm waters of Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Ike has shown a remarkable ability to self organize since almost immediately after birth. The hurricane previously strengthened steadily, but rapidly, as it moved west on the open waters of the Atlantic ocean. Ike loves open waters and with its nascent ability to strengthen rapidly he could prove to be the strongest and most dangerous hurricane of the season to date; however, it’s still too early to forecast with high certainty the hurricane’s wind forces at landfall.

Ike on his way out of Cuba. GOES East Unenhanced Image Frozen for the purpose of comparison. Date and Time: Sept 11, 2008 at 00:15UTC – Credit: NOAA/NHC/NWS

GOES East Floater (Updated Image) Unenhanced – IR CH 4 – Date and Time: Updated  (see foot of image). Credit: NOAA/NHC/NWS

IKE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Knabb/Berg
• Date and Time: Sept 10, 2008 at 00:00UTC

• Hurricane Watch Area: From Cameron westward to port Mansfield, Texas.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Friday.

• Tropical Storm Warning Area: From the mouth of the Mississippi River westward to east of Cameron Louisiana.  AND from west of Key West to the Dry Tortugas.

• Location: At 00:00UTC the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 24.7 north, longitude 86.3 west or about 1,125 km east of Brownsville Texas and about 555 km south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.
  

• Category and Wind Speed: At 160 km/hr, with higher
  Gusts, Ike is a Category 2A hurricane on the FEWW Hurricane Scale.  Ike is expected to become a major hurricane by Thursday.
• Direction: Ike is moving toward the northwest near 13 km/hr.  A turn back toward the west-northwestward is expected tonight or early on Thursday and a general west-northwestward motion over the central and western Gulf of Mexico is expected on Thursday and Friday.
• Breadth: Ike is a large tropical cyclone.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 185 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 335 km. 
  
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 947 mb (27.96 inches).

• Storm surge flooding: Coastal storm surge flooding along the coasts of Cuba and in the Florida Keys should continue to subside tonight.  coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous waves, can be expected within the tropical storm warning area.  Above normal tides of 2 to 4 feet are expected elsewhere along much of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so, but will be increasing along the western gulf coast as Ike approaches.

• Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 15 to 30 centimeters (cm) over western Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to
  50cm possible.  These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.  Rainfall amounts of 2 to 5cm are possible over extreme southern Louisiana and over the extreme northern Yucatan Peninsula.

Ike’s Forecast Path

Latest NCEP/Tropical Prediction Center (TPC) Forecast Positions. Credit: CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering Center – University of Wisconsin- Madison

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

Credit: NOAA/NHC/NWS

Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

• Photos and Videos

Ike makes landfall in Cuba

Weakened fortuitously to a Category 3 hurricane, Ike made landfall in Cuba in the province of Holguin near Punto de Sama on the north coast of eastern Cuba at about 01:45UTC, NHC said, with maximum winds of about 205 km/hr.

GOES-East 4km IR4 Floater 2 –  Date and Time: Latest Image, Updated – Credit: RAMSDIS-CIRA/RAMM – Colorado State University

Hurricane Ike regional imagery, 2008.09.08 at 14:45UTC. Centerpoint Latitude: 21:15:44N Longitude: 78:26:22W. GOES-12 1 km visible imagery. [Data Elements: The center of Ike may be over open water south of Cuba soon. Ike may not weaken as much as previously shown.] Credit: NOAA/NESDIS/EVP

By 03:00 the center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 21.1 north, longitude 75.8 west near Cabo Lucrecia about 220km east of Camaguey Cuba.

Ike is now moving in a westerly direction at 20 km/hr, and is expected to turn west to west-northwest in the next 24-48 hours.  On this track the center will move over eastern, central and western Cuba through Tuesday.

Since making landfall, Ike’ maximum sustained winds have marginally receded to about 195 km/hr, and is now a category 3B hurricane of FEWW Hurricane Scale.  Further weakening is likely as Ike moves over Cuba.

Ike’s Legacy in the Caribbeans [so far]

Turks and Caicos Islands (Population 22,500): T & C took the full brunt of Ike as a Category 4 hurricane with 215 km/hr winds. About 80 percent of the houses on Grand Turk (population 3,000 were destroyed or damaged, an official said.

The Dominican Republic: Up to 50,000 people abandoned their homes because of the powerful winds and rain.

Haiti: The downpour from Ike caused the La Quinte river to rise again flooding the city of Gonaives for the second time since Hannah struck. By Sunday evening Gonaives was “a devastated and isolated city,” its mayor reportedly said, “all of our bridges to the rest of the country have collapsed.”

For additional images see: Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

Ike On The North Coast Of Eastern Cuba

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Pasch
• Date and Time: Sept 8, 2008 at 03:00UTC
• Category and Wind Speed: About195 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is still a very dangerous  3B hurricane of FEWW Hurricane Scale. Some weakening is expected as Ike moves over Cuba.

• Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 95 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 km.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 945mb (27.91 inches).
• Storm surge flooding: 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected within the warning area in areas of onshore winds.
• Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next 48 hours.  These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.
• Rainfall: Ike is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches over eastern and central Cuba, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches possible.  These rains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over mountainous terrain.
  • The southern Bahamas: Possible rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches from Ike.
  • Portions of Hispaniola: Additional amounts of 3 to 5 inches.
  • Turks and Caicos islands: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches.
  • Florida Keys: Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.

Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

• Latest Photos and Videos

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

Ike: A Deadly Hurricane by any Other Name

2008 Year of the Rain, too?

GOES – Floater Image – UneEnhanced Infrared CH4 – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

FEWW Comment:  Ike has re-restrengthened to a  Category 4A on the FEWW Hurricane Scale (Cat. 4 on Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale)  with extremely dangerous wind speeds of about 215km/hr. It’s outer bands have enveloped the Dominican Republic and the northeastern peripheries of Haiti, moving slowly to cover north [and rest] of the island, where 500 people have already died and up to a million others displaced from previous storms. More rain, flooding, deaths and devastation are to be expected.

Subject to current weather condition and sea temperatures in the Caribbeans and on its forecast path, hurricane Ike may strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane as it approaches/makes landfall in Cuba, striking ferociously at the heart of the tropical island, which is already reeling from the shock of the previous three storms (Fay, Gustav and Hannah) in as many weeks. It’s hoped that the resilient Cuban people would literally “weather the storm.”

Storm Centered Infrared Image. Click here for  JAVA Movie (color enhancement). credit CIMSS – Space Science and Engineering Center – University of Wisconsin- Madison

GOES – Tropical Floater Imagery – Infrared CH 4 – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

GOES EAST – North Atlantic Imagery – JSL2 enhancement – Date and time:  Updated on Image – Credit NOAA/NESDIS/SSD

Eye of Extremely Dangerous Hurricane Ike Passing Over the Turks Islands

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Avila
• Date and Time:Sept 7, 2008 at 03:00UTC
• Category and Wind Speed: About 215 km/hr with higher gusts.  Ike is an extremely dangerous category four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale [Cat 4A on FEWW Hurricane Scale]. Some strengthening is
  Possible before Ike moves over eastern Cuba.
• Location: The large eye of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 21.2 north, longitude 70.9 west, very close to the Turks and Caicos Islands.
• Direction: Ike is moving toward the west-southwest near 24 km/hr and this motion is expected to continue Sunday with a gradual turn to the west late Sunday. On this track, the core of the hurricane Will begin to affect the southeastern Bahamas early Sunday.  Ike should then move near the central Bahamas and the northern coast of eastern Cuba Sunday night/early Monday.
• Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 75 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 220 km.
  
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 947mb (27.96 inches).

• Storm surge flooding: 13 to 18 feet above normal tide levels and large and dangerous battering waves can be expected in the warning areas.
• Large swells generated by Ike will affect portions of the southeast United States coast during the next 48 hrs.  These waves could generate dangerous and life-threatening rip currents.

• Rainfall: About 10 to 20 cm (4 to 8 inches) with isolated maximum amounts of 30 cm (12 inches) are expected over the Turks and Caicos Islands and southeastern Bahamas. Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could see 15 to 30 cm (6 to 12 inches) of rain with isolated maximum amounts of up to 50cm (20 inches) possible.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over mountainous terrain.

These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt…39 mph (tropical storm force). These wind speed probability graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative probabilities that wind speeds of at least 39 mph will occur during cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire 5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h, 0-36 h, … , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided. To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 39 mph at any location, the 120-h graphics are recommended. NOAA/NHC/NWS

Related “Year of the Expected Unknowns” Links:

• This’s Got to Be the Year of Radioactive, Chemical and Oil Spills, Too!
• Will 2008 be year of the tornadoes, too?
• California Fires: Not Hard to Understand!

• 2008: Year of the Expected Unknowns!
• First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities

::

Hurricane Ike, TS Hannah, TS Josephine – Update 9-5

Ike Update 9/12: Who Rubbed the Oil Lamp?

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/10

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/9

• Photos and Videos

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/8

• Hurricane Ike Update 9/7

Tropical Storm Hannah

FEWW Comment: Big Hannah’s torrential rains have already submerged parts of Haiti in more than  two meters of floodwater, leaving about 140 people dead. A nightmare scenario in the US Atlantic coast could unfold, if Hannah were to move in slow motion over the U.S. east coast, as already predicted by NHC, without necessarily making landfall, repeating a similar performance to her Haiti debut.

Updated Tropical Atlantic Imagery – Aviation color enhancement – GOES East – Date and time as shown on image. Credit NOAA/SSD/NESDIS

TS Hannah: Coastal Watches/Warnings and 3-Day Track Forecast Cone

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of the center of the tropical cyclone. The black line and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the center at the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to be tropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed, then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC’s forecast intensity for that time. NOAA/NHC

TS Hannah

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Rhome
• Date and Time: Sept 5, 2008 / 06:00UTC
• Location: The center of tropical storm Hanna was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 77.2 West or about 90 km north of Great Abaco Island and about 790 km south of Wilmington, North Carolina.
• Direction: Hanna is moving toward the northwest. NHC expects a gradual turn to the north with an increase in forward speed later today. The center of Hanna will be near the southeast coast of the United States later Today. However, rains and winds associated with Hanna will reach the coast well in advance of the center.
• Speed: About 30 km/hr.
• Wind Speed: About 105 km/hr with higher gusts. It is still possible for Hanna to become a hurricane.
• Breadth: Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 510 km (v. large) mainly to the north and east of the center.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 984mb (29.05 inches).
• Additional Information: Hanna could produce rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches over the Northern Bahamas and the eastern portions of south and north Carolina, with maximum isolated amounts of 5 inches possible.  Rainfall totals of up to 3 inches are possible from the Georgia coast southward to the central Florida coast. Very heavy rainfall amounts are likely to spread rapidly northward into the mid Atlantic states and New England from Friday night into Saturday and may result in flooding.

Hurricane Ike

Hurricane Ike: Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Track Forecast Cone

NOAA/NHC

FEWW Comment: Ike, having strengthened to a very dangerous Category 4B on the FEWW Hurricane Scale just over 24 hours ago, is now slightly downgraded to a category 4A hurricane churning in a westerly direction. If Ike remains on its 5-day NHC-predicted path, and maintains its current strength as a major hurricane (Category 3A or above,) it would sweep over the northern edge of Haiti and the Island of Cuba causing additional destruction on a grand scale, compounding the misery caused by TS Fay, Hurricane Gustav and Hurricane Hannah during the last 19 days.

• Source: NHC
• Forecaster: Brown
• Date and Time: Sept 5, 2008 at  03:00UTC
• Category and Wind Speed: About 215 km/hr, with higher gusts. Ike is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale [Category 4A on FEWW Hurricane Scale.] Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 to 48 hours.
• Location: The center of hurricane Ike was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 59.5 West or about 760 km north-northeast of the Leeward Islands and about 1,215 km east-northeast of Grand Turk island.
• Direction: Ike is moving in a westerly direction. A turn toward the west-southwest is expected on Friday, and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday.  On this track the hurricane will continue to move over the open waters of the west-central Atlantic during the next 48 hours.
• Speed: About 22 km/hr.
• Breadth: Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 55 km from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 km.
• Estimated minimum central pressure: 945mb (27.91 inches).

TS Josephine

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