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Just when you thought it couldn’t possibly get much …
FIRE-EARTH Models show unprecedented surges in atmospheric CO2 concentrations starting 2014. The massive increases could be as much as 10 – 15 times any rises ever recorded.
To minimize abuse of this forecast by the usual culprits and dozens of newcomers, FIRE-EARTH won’t release further details at this time.
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites. The Global Monitoring Division of NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory has measured carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases for several decades at a globally distributed network of air sampling sites [Conway, 1994]. A global average is constructed by first fitting a smoothed curve as a function of time to each site, and then the smoothed value for each site is plotted as a function of latitude for 48 equal time steps per year. A global average is calculated from the latitude plot at each time step [Masarie, 1995]. Go here for more details on how global means are calculated. Click for a comparison with recent trends in carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, which has the longest continuous record of direct atmospheric CO2 measurements. Image and caption: ESRL/NOAA
Index of Human Impact on Nature (HIoN)
Diagram shows the exponential growth of Human Impact on Nature (HION) between 1960 and July 2013. Source: FIRE-EARTH Real-Time Earth Models. Copyright: FIRE-EARTH Blog Authors.
Tens of thousands evacuated across Saxony-Anhalt region amid devastating floods
Up to 40,000 people have been evacuated across Saxony-Anhalt region in eastern Germany after a dam at the confluence of the Rivers Elbe and Saale south of the state capital Magdeburg burst.
The latest episode in Europe’s most devastating flood saw the water levels in the Elbe River rising to a record 7.48 meters, some 0.76m above the 2002 levels and more than 5 meters above normal, affecting towns and villages near the cities of Magdeburg, Aken and Berlin.
The cost of damage so far is estimated at $8billion dollars, the Cologne Institute for Economic Research has reported.
Meantime, the Interior Minister for Saxony-Anhalt was quoted as saying that air and land surveillance would be stepped up across the state in response to a threat from a group calling itself the Germanophobic Flood Brigade to attack the dikes.
“Downstream along the Elbe, the town of Lauenburg and the village of Hitzacker in Lower Saxony were bracing for flood waters in the coming days. More rain heavy rain is expected Monday in the states of Thuringia, Saxony and Bavaria,” said a report.
Meantime, people in Budapest are bracing as the surging Danube approaches.
-oOo-
Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events
Worldwide carbon emissions hit record high in 2012
Global CO2 emissions in 2012 rose by 1.4 percent to 31.6 billion tons, IEA has estimated.
The biggest emitter in 2012 was China, which spewed an additional 300 million tons.
Additional use of gas to generate power helped reduce the CO2 emissions in the U.S.
Japan’s CO2 emissions rose by 70 million tons because the country’s inadequate energy efficiency measure couldn’t offset increasing use of fossil fuels after the Fukushima disaster, said a report.
-oOo-
Tornadic waterspout filmed in Côte d’Azur, France
-oOo-
Shallow Earthquake Rattles Northern Territory, Australia
An earthquake measuring 5.8Mw struck the Australian state of Northern Territory on Sunday.
EQ Details:
Magnitude: 5.8Mw
Event Time: 2013-06-09 14:22:12 UTC
Location: 25.966°S 131.976°E
Depth: 1.1km (0.7mi)
Nearby Cities: 316km (196mi) SW of Alice Springs
-oOo-
Another Day of Wild Weather across the U.S.
Monday: Severe weather moves East; heavy rain to pummel the Northeast, as record-setting temperatures in the West prompt Red Flag Warnings across multiple states.
US Map of Weather Hazards for June 10, 2013. Source: NWS
The NWS Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a risk of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon & evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic, from Maryland across central Virginia and North Carolina and into South Carolina. Damaging winds will be the primary threat though the development of a few tornadoes is possible. There is also a risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of the Tennessee Valley.
-oOo-
Accelerating Rises in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Recent Monthly Average Mauna Loa CO2
May 2013: 399.77 ppm
May 2012: 396.78 ppm
Up-to-date weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa
Week beginning on June 2, 2013: 399.20 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 395.59 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 378.50 ppm
Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide:
Average CO2 at Mauna Loa Continues Rising
Last 5 days of preliminary daily average CO2
May 28 – 400.27
May 27 – 400.29
May 26 – 400.45
May 25 – 399.97
May 24 – 399.84
Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa
Week beginning on May 19, 2013: 399.91 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 396.30 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 379.36 ppm
Atmospheric increase of CO2 over 280 ppm in weekly averages of CO2 observed at Mauna Loa. Source: NOAA/ESRL
-oOo-
TS BARBARA intensifying on its way to southern coast of Mexico
BARBARA is forecast to reach hurricane strength before slamming Mexico’s southern coast on Wednesday, NHC said.
The storm, currently moving northeast at about 7MPH, is forecast to cross Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Mexico’s narrowest point.
The center has issued a hurricane warning from Oaxaca’s Puerto Angel to Barra de Tonala, and a tropical storm warming from Barra de Tonala to Boca de Pijijiapan in Chiapas state.
BARBARA is expected to dump up to 12 inches of rain over eastern Oaxaca through western Chiapas after making landfall, generating a storm surge of up to 5 feet above normal tide levels, NHC added.
Vegetable greenhouses are flooded in Bijie City, SW China’s Guizhou Province, May 29, 2013. The region experienced an extreme rain event from Tuesday through Wednesday. (Xinhua/Deng Jie)
-oOo-
DISASTER CALENDAR – May 29, 2013— SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,018 Days Left
Mass die-offs resulting from human impact and the planetary response to the anthropogenic assault could occur by early 2016.
SYMBOLIC COUNTDOWN: 1,018 Days Left to ‘Worst Day’ in the brief Human History
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Crosses 400PPM Milestone at Hawaii Observatory
On April 3, FIRE-EARTH forecast that the weekly average atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa could hit 400ppm by May 2013.
Last 5 days of daily average CO2
May 09 – 400.03 | May 08 – 399.42 | May 07 – 399.59 | May 06 – 399.43 | May 05 – 399.47 |
This is the first time the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in Hawaii tops 400ppm since measurement began in 1958, according to ESRL data.
The rise to 400ppm level of the atmospheric carbon dioxide represents yet another appalling milestone in the brief history of the homo ignarus.
The last time Earth’s atmosphere contained this much carbon dioxide was probably as many as 5 million years ago.
CO2 Daily and Weekly Means at Mauna Loa. The weekly mean (red bar) is simply the average of all days in the week for which a background value could be defined. The average standard deviation of day to day variability, calculated as the difference from the appropriate weekly mean, equals 0.38 ppm for the entire record. As a visual aid, the blue lines present monthly means of background data as they are presented under Recent Monthly CO2 at Mauna Loa. [Source: ESRL/NOAA]
One Year of CO2 daily and weekly means at Mauna Loa
The graph, updated weekly, shows as individual points daily mean CO2 up to and including the week (Sunday through Saturday) previous to today. The daily means are based on hours during which CO2 was likely representative of “background” conditions, defined as times when the measurement is representative of air at mid-altitudes over the Pacific Ocean. That air has had several days time or more to mix, smoothing out most of the CO2 variability encountered elsewhere, making the measurements representative of CO2 over hundreds of km or more. The selection process is designed to filter out any influence of nearby emissions, or removals, of CO2 such as caused by the vegetation on the island of Hawaii, and likewise emissions from the volcanic crater of Mauna Loa. Source: ESRL/NOAA
Weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa could hit 400ppm by May 2013: FIRE-EARTH
FIRE-EARTH projections show, based on the data provided by Mauna Loa Observatory, the average CO2 at Mauna Loa could climb to 400ppm in the next 6 weeks.
Up-to-date weekly average CO2 at Mauna Loa
Week of March 24, 2013: 397.92 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 395.30 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 377.06 ppm
CO2 Daily and Weekly Means at Mauna Loa [April 2012 – March 2013.] The weekly mean (red bar) is simply the average of all days in the week for which a background value could be defined. The average standard deviation of day to day variability, calculated as the difference from the appropriate weekly mean, equals 0.38 ppm for the entire record. As a visual aid, the blue lines present monthly means of background data as they are presented under Recent Monthly CO2 at Mauna Loa. [Source: ESRL/NOAA]
Recent Mauna Loa CO2
February 2013: 396.80 ppm
February 2012: 393.54 ppm
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. [Source: ESRL/NOAA]
Monthly mean atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii [Source: ESRL/NOAA]
Recent Global CO2
January 2013: 395.09 ppm
January 2012: 392.44 ppm
The graph shows recent monthly mean carbon dioxide globally averaged over marine surface sites. [Images sourced from ESRL/NOAA]
Historic
Time history of atmospheric carbon dioxide from 800,000 years ago until January, 2012.
Global average abundances of the major, well-mixed, long-lived greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, CFC-12 and CFC-11 – from the NOAA global air sampling network are plotted since the beginning of 1979. These gases account for about 96% of the direct radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases since 1750. The remaining 4% is contributed by an assortment of 15 minor halogenated gases (see text). Methane data before 1983 are annual averages from Etheridge et al. (1998), adjusted to the NOAA calibration scale [Dlugokencky et al., 2005]. Source: ESRL/NOAA. Click on image to view larger image. Click HERE for full size figure .
At least 46 people have died amid extreme heat that has paralyzed more than two dozen states from the Midwest to the East Coast.
Heat-related fatalities occurred in Virgina (at least 12 deaths reported), Maryland (11), Chicago (10), Wisconsin (4), Ohio (3), Pennsylvania (3) Tennessee (2), and Indiana (1), where an infant died after being left in a vehicle in triple-digit temperatures outside her home in Greenfield, about 25 miles east of Indianapolis.
Hundreds of thousands of people in West Virginia, Virginia, Ohio, New Jersey, Maryland and Indiana are still without power 9 days after deadly storms swept through the region causing widespread destruction and ‘catastrophic damage’ to power grids.
Map of Temperature Departure from Normal
Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events
Krasnodar Region, Russia. The worst flooding in living memory in southern Russia’s Krasnodar Region, near the Black Sea, has left at least 153 people dead and and more than 5,000 homes destroyed or damaged, reports said.
“The flash flood inundated the cities of Gelendzhik, Krymsk and Novorossiysk as well as the four villages of Divnomorskoe, Nizhnebakanskaya, Neberdzhaevskaya and Kabardinka.”
“The streets of Krymsk are now mostly deserted. The town looks like the set of a post-apocalyptic movie,” RT reported .
About 3,000 people have been evacuated from flood-hit areas in Krasnoda, as of posting, while 30,000 people are without power in the region, and more than 80 percent of the population of Krymsk have lost their gas supply cut off.
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