CHRISTINE Could Intensify to Cat 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone

EXTREME CLIMATIC EVENT

Massive Storm CHRISTINE could intensify to a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone

FIRE-EARTH Models show CHRISTINE could intensify to a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone with sustained winds of 165 km/h or higher, and wind gusts in excess of 225 km/h over the next 24 hours, subject to continued favorable conditions [probability: 0.45]

As of 05:32 UTC on December 29, 2013 FIRE-EARTH models located  CHRISTINE (TC 05S) near 17.1ºS, 119.9ºE, about 425 km NNE of Port Hedland, Australia, inching SSW towards the Pilbara coast at a forward speed of about 3 km/h.

Severe Tropical Cyclone  CHRISTINE. Infrared [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] Satellite Image. Recorded at 04:32UTC on Sunday December 29, 2013. The original Image Sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

 ABOM Forecast

According to Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM), CHRISTINE will develop to a Cat 3   Severe Tropical Cyclone at 5 am WST (UTC +8 hrs)  and weaken to Cat2 at 11 am on December 31.

Severe Tropical Cyclone  CHRISTINE projected path.  Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM).

ABOM Cyclone Warning

“During Monday gales and heavy rainfall are expected to extend to Mardie and possibly as far west as Exmouth, and then to the inland Pilbara late Monday and on Tuesday. If Christine continues to develop as expected a severe tropical cyclone impact on the Pilbara coast is likely late on Monday or early on Tuesday, with VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts in excess of 170 kilometres per hour near the cyclone centre,” warned BOM.

“People on the coast between Pardoo and Mardie, including Port Hedland and Karratha, are warned of the potential for a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Tides may rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and VERY DANGEROUS COASTAL INUNDATION.”

Related Links

• CHRISTINE Even Fiercer than She Looks  December 28, 2013

CHRISTINE Even Fiercer than She Looks

CHRISTINE Could Develop to Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone: FIRE-EARTH

FIRE-EARTH Models show Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINE could intensify to a Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone with sustained winds of 140 km/h or higher, and wind gusts in excess of 180 km/h over the next 24 -36 hours, subject to favorable conditions.

Tropical Cyclone CHRISTINE. Water Vapor [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] Satellite Image.  Recorded at 12:32UTC on Saturday December 28, 2013. The original Image Sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

At 13:00UTC on December 28, 2013 CHRISTINE was located about 505km north northeast of Port Hedland, Australia moving SSW at 11 km/h parallel to the coast. Maximum significant wave hight was about 4 meters.

“Ports in Australia’s Pilbara region, through which almost half of the world’s seaborne iron ore is shipped, were sending ships out to sea on Saturday ahead of a tropical cyclone that is forecast to reach the coast by Tuesday,” reported Reuters.

More than 40 vessels in the anchorages and harbor at Port Hedland will be leaving by early Sunday, according to the port authorities.

UPDATE
Embedded Thunderstorms

“A large area of embedded thunderstorms over the Kimberley, the western Top End and waters to the north, is associated with Tropical Cyclone Christine,” said  Australian BOM.

BOM has issued a  Cyclone Warning for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Whim Creek, including Broome and Port Hedland and a Cyclone Watch for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth, including Karratha and Onslow, extending inland to Paraburdoo, Western Australia (WA).

Tropical Cyclone MADI Striking Southern India

MADI packing sustained winds of about 70km/h

MADI [Tropical Cyclone 06B] was located approximately 210km ESE of Chennai, India, [position: 11.9N, 81.5E] tracking southwestward at about 20km/h at 00:30UTC on December 12, 2013, according to JTWC. 

The cyclone was packing sustained winds of about 70km/h gusting up to 90km/h.

The system was generating maximum significant wave height of up to 5m and was being monitored for signs of regeneration.

Tropical Storm MADI – Water Vapor [FIRE-EARTH Enhancement] Satellite image – recorded at 00:30UTC on December 12, 2013. Original Image Source: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

Related Links

• Mass Evacuations Ordered as Cyclonic Storm LEHAR Approaches India November 28, 2013
• LEHAR Closing in on Indian Coast November 27, 2013
• Cyclonic Storm LEHAR Strikes Andaman Islands November 25, 2013
• Tropical Cyclone HELEN Striking East India Coast November 21, 2013
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale
• Satellite Imagery

 

FRANCISCO to Bring More Rain to Sodden Coastal Japan

Typhoon FRANCISCO to Swipe Japan’s Pacific Coast

FRANCISCO, the 27th Typhoon of 2013, would likely follow a somewhat similar path to typhoon WIPHA, which dumped more than 800 millimeter of rain over Izu Ōshima Island in 24 hours, as it swiped Tokyo region.

WIPHA unleashed massive landslides on the volcanic Island, killing dozens of people (29 confirmed dead , 16 others missing presumed dead), destroying or damaging hundreds of homes and forcing thousands to evacuate last Wednesday.

FIRE-EARTH Models show FRANCISCO making landfall with probability of about 55 percent, as of 03:00UTC on October 23, 2013.

Typhoon FRANCISCO moves closer to southern Japan, watched by Super Typhoon LEKIMA. VISIBLE/INFRARED satellite image (FIRE-EARTH Enhancement) recorded at 01:30UTC on October 23, 2013. Original image sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

Typhoon FRANCISCO

• Time: 03:00UTC – October 23, 2013
• Movement: NW (305 degrees) at 15km/hr
• Position: Near 24.3ºN, 131.1ºE
• Location: About 270km Southeast (118 degrees) of Naha, Okinawa, Japan
• Max Sustained Winds: 140km/hr
• Max Wind Gusts: 215km/hr
• Significant Wave Height:   10m
• Source: FIRE-EARTH and others

Projected paths of Typhoon FRANCISCO and Super Typhoon LEKIMA as of 01:30UTC on October 23, 2013. Original images sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC. Enhanced by FIRE-EARTH

Typhoon Stats for NW Pacific

• The 60 year average (1951-2010) No of Typhoons: 20.9
• No of typhoons so far this year: 28
• Percent Increase: 34 [Calculated by FIRE-EARTH blog]

Related News

Nansei Sekiyu KK, a Japanese refiner owned by Petrobras, has shut down marine operations at its 100,000 barrels-per-day refinery in Okinawa, due to typhoon FRANCISCO, said a report.

More details to follow…

Related Links

• Typhoon FRANCISCO and TD 27 Headed for Tokyo October 20, 2013
• FRANCISCO Intensifying to “Extraterrestrial” Storm Force  October 19, 2013
• FRANCISCO Shifts Up Into Major Typhoon Gear October 18, 2013
• Typhoon FRANCISCO Inching Toward Japan October 17, 2013
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale
• Satellite Imagery

Links to Typhoon WIPHA

• Typhoon WIPHA Dumps 800mm of Rain Over Tokyo October 16, 2013
• Typhoon WIPHA Targets Tokyo October 15, 2013
• Typhoon NARI Chased by TS WIPHA October 12, 2013
• Vietnam Evacuates 250,000 ahead of NARI October 14, 2013

FRANCISCO Shifts Up Into Major Typhoon Gear

FRANCISCO strengthens into Cat 4B storm, could become a super typhoon

Packing sustained winds of about 230km/hr, FRANCISCO has intensified to a Cat 4B typhoon force, with a significant probability [P=74%] of further strengthening into a super typhoon, albeit briefly, with winds in excess of 250 km/h.

Typhoon FRANCISCO

Time: 06:00UTC – October 18, 2013
Movement: NW at 3km/hr
Position: Near 14.6ºN, 141.8E
Location: About 340km WNW (290 degrees) of Hagåtña, Guam, Mariana Islands
Max Sustained Winds: 230km/hr
Max Wind Gusts: 275km/hr
Significant Wave Height: ~ 10m
Source: FIRE-EARTH and others

FRANCISCO is expected to intensify to a Cat 5 Super Typhoon Force, before weakening as it moves toward Japan region. —FIRE-EARTH.

Typhoon FRANCISCO. VIS/IR satellite image (FIRE-EARTH Enhancement) recorded at 06:32UTC on October 18, 2013. Original image sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.
More details to follow…

Related Links

• Typhoon FRANCISCO Inching Toward Japan October 17, 2013
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale
• Satellite Imagery

Typhoon FRANCISCO Inching Toward Japan

FRANCISCO, the 27th Typhoon of 2013

Typhoon FRANCISCO

Time: 06:00UTC – October 17, 2013
Movement: WSW (245 degrees) at 3km/hr
Position: Near 11.2ºN, 142.8E
Location: Near 370km SW of Hagåtña, Guam, Mariana Islands
Max Sustained Winds: 135km/hr
Max Wind Gusts: 165km/hr
Significant Wave Height: ~ 8m
Source: FIRE-EARTH and others

FRANCISCO is expected to intensify to a Cat 4C Typhoon force, before gradually weakening as it moves toward Japan region. —FIRE-EARTH.

Typhoon FRANCISCO. Visible/Shortwave IR (FIRE-EARTH Enhancement) satellite image recorded at 04:32UTC on October 17, 2013. The typhoon was located SSW of Guam. Original image sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

Typhoon FRANCISCO with the projected path. IR satellite image (FIRE-EARTH Enhancement) recorded at 04:32UTC on October 17, 2013. Original image sourced from: CIMSS/SSEC/WISC.

Typhoon Stats for NW Pacific

• The 60 year average (1951-2010) No of Typhoons: 20.9
• No of typhoons so far this year: 27
• Percent Increase: 29.2 [Calculated by FIRE-EARTH blog]

More details to follow…

Related Links

• FEWW New Hurricane Scale
• Satellite Imagery

Destructive Typhoon Slamming Philippines

Dangerous UTOR forecast to strike the Philippines as Cat 4B Typhoon

Typhoon UTOR (Typhoon 11W) is forecast to strike the Philippines at about 16:00 UTC on 11 August with sustain winds of up to 230 km/hr and wind gusts of over 265 km/hr.

Typhoon UTOR Details @ 12:00UTC on 11 August 2013
Approximate Position:  15.5N, 123.8E
Location:  370 km east of Manila
Movement: Tracking WNW at 20km/hr
Maximum Sustained Winds: 225 km/hr
Maximum Wind Gusts: 275 km/hr
Max significant Wave Height: (Estimated) 12m

Source: FIRE-EARTH and others

TY UTOR. IR satellite image (BD Enhancement) – 2km res. Source: CIMSS

Related Links

• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

FLOSSIE Headed for HAWAI’I

Tropical Storm FLOSSIE targets the Big Island

[July 28, 2013 10:00UTC]  Tropical Storm FLOSSIE is located approximately 775NM (1,435 km) east of Pearl Harbor, moving WEST at about 17NMPH, said JTWC .

• POSITION:  Near 19.5N, 145.5W
• Max sustained winds: 50NMPH
• Wind gusts: 65NMPH
• Max significant wave height 25 feet ( 8m)

Tropical Storm (06E) – FLOSSIE. Shortwave IR Satellite Image. Source: CIMSS

TS FLOSSIE projected Track. Source: CIMSS

Related Links

• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Climate Catastrophes Cumulate in China

More roads transformed to rivers as extreme rain events continue to batter China

The concrete jungle bears telltale clues!

Kunming, the capital of southwest China’s Yunnan Province, July 19, 2013. The meteorologic center issued a blue alert for rainstorm on Friday after extensive flooding caused by an extreme rain event inundated the city. (Xinhua/Lin Yiguang) More images…

Tropical Cyclone Cimaron makes landfall in Fujian Province

The cyclone battered Fujian Province dumping up to 520 mm or rain in just a few hours .

Original caption:  A car is submerged among wastes swept down by mountain torrents and torrential rain in Gangwei Township in Longhai of Zhangzhou City, southeast China’s Fujian Province, July 19, 2013. Tropical storm Cimaron made its landfall in Fujian Thursday evening, bringing heavy rain and strong gales to southern part of the province. Xiamen, Zhangzhou, Quanzhou and Putian were severely affected by the storm, with the rainfall in some regions like Longhai reaching 520 millimeters on Friday. About 123,000 residents were afflicted by the storm and no casualties have been reported yet. (Xinhua/Wei Peiquan). More images…

Extreme Rain Events, severe flooding in Guangyuan force 41,400 people to relocate

Original Caption: Photo taken on July 18, 2013 shows the rising flood in Guangyuan City of southwest China’s Sichuan Province. A rain-triggered flood has brought serious damage to Guangyuan City from Wednesday, causing one person missing and forcing 41,400 people to relocate. (Xinhua/Gao Zhinong) More images…

Related Links

• Thousands of Towns and Villages Devastated by Floods in China July 18, 2013
• China to Become Top Wheat Importer after Major Crop Disaster July 17, 2013
• Fire Destroys 200 Houses in SW China July 17, 2013
• Flooding Destroys Town of Caopo in SW China July 16, 2013
• Typhoon SOULIK Affects 2 Million in China  July 15, 2013
• Hundreds of Thousands Evacuated as SOULIK Hits China July 13, 2013
• Extreme Weather Wreaks Havoc in SW China July 10, 2013

Typhoon SOULIK to Dump 6 Billion Tons of Rain on Taiwan

SOULIK Dumping an estimated 6 billion tons of rain on Taiwan Region

FIRE-EARTH estimates Typhoon SOULIK will have dumped at least 6 billion tons of precipitation on Taiwan region.

• Such tremendous amount of precipitation over  a short period of time could cause catastrophic flash floods and potentially deadly landslides.

Typhoon SOULIK – MTSAT Funktop IR satellite image enhancement – July 13, 2013 @ 00:32UTC. Funktop enhancement highlights intense areas of precipitation. Source: NOAA/SSD

High Probability of Landslides

Taiwan authorities have warned about potential disaster in the areas most prone to landslides.

“The central region of Taiwan has experienced two earthquakes with magnitude six or above on 27 March and 2 June, loose soil after seismic activities are potential disaster areas under heavy rainfall,” they warned in a statement.

China Landing

SOULIK is expected to make  landfall in Fujian and Zhejiang provinces on the Chinese mainland on Saturday PM, the local forecasters said.

Related Links

• Typhoon SOULIK Covers 1 Million Sq Km July 12, 2013
• SOULIK Continues to Gain Mass July 11, 2013
• Typhoon SOULIK Targets Taipei, Taiwan July 10, 2013
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Typhoon SOULIK Covers 1 Million Sq Km

Rain Monster SOULIK continues to grow

Dangerous Typhoon SOULIK has grown to about 1 million km² covering an area 27 times the size of  Taiwan.

Typhoon Stats as of 00:32UTC on July 12, 2013

• Approximate position: 22.8ºN, 125.7ºE
• Movement: 280 degrees @ 12 NMPH  (~22 km/h)
• Max. Sustained Winds: 100  NMPH (185 km/h)
• Max. Wind Gusts: 125 NMPH (232 km/h)

As of 02:30UTC Friday, SOULIK was 420 km east of Yilan county on the NE coast of Taiwan.

The typhoon could make landfall in Yilan or Hualien counties on the country’s NE coast about 20:00UTC Friday, according to several models.

Typhoon  SOULIK.  MTSAT – Floater SW/IR Sat Image – NOAA/SSD – FIRE-EARTH Enhancement – Jul 12, 2013 @ 01:32UTC

Typhoon SOULIK projected path superimposed on a sea surface temperature map. Image credit: CIMSS

High Probability of Landslides

Taiwan authorities have warned about potential disaster in the areas most prone to landslides.

“The central region of Taiwan has experienced two earthquakes with magnitude six or above on 27 March and 2 June, loose soil after seismic activities are potential disaster areas under heavy rainfall,” they warned in a statement.

Related Links

• SOULIK Continues to Gain Mass July 11, 2013
• Typhoon SOULIK Targets Taipei, Taiwan July 10, 2013
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

SOULIK Continues to Gain Mass

Gigantic Typhoon SOULIK growing bigger, slower

Typhoon Stats as of 00:32UTC on July 11, 2013

• Approximate position: 22.5ºN, 130.6ºE
• Movement: 280 degrees @ 12 NMPH  (24 km/h)
• Max. Sustained Winds: 120  NMPH (222 km/h)
• Max. Wind Gusts: 145 NMPH (270 km/h)

Tropical Cyclone SOULIK continues moving WNW in Northwest Pacific – IR satellite image with the typhoon’s projected path. Image Credit: CIMSS

Ty SOULIK  in Northwest Pacific – IR satellite image (NHC Enhancement). Image Credit: CIMSS

Related Links

• Typhoon SOULIK Targets Taipei, Taiwan July 10, 2013
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Typhoon SOULIK Targets Taipei, Taiwan

SOULIK Intensifies to a powerful Cat 4 storm, heading toward Taipei, N. Taiwan

Dangerous SOULIK powers on with sustained winds of 232 km/h.

FIRE-EARTH models show SOULIK could intensify to a SUPER Typhoon with sustained winds of >250 km/h with a probability of about 64% .

Typhoon Stats as of 10:00UTC on July 10, 2013

• Approximate position: 21.1ºN, 135.8ºE
• Movement: 290 degrees @ 13 NMPH  (24 km/h)
• Max. Sustained Winds: 125  NMPH (232 km/h)
• Max. Wind Gusts: 150 NMPH (278 km/h)

Tropical Cyclone SOULIK in Northwest Pacific – IR satellite image with the typhoon’s projected path. Image Credit: CIMSS

Symmetrically perfect Typhoon SOULIK – VIS/IR satellite image. Image Credit: CIMSS

Related Links

• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

TS MAHASEN: The Rain Monster

Tropical Storm MAHASEN Intensifying 

MAHASEN, which formed over Indian Ocean near Bay of Bengal early Saturday, is forecast to intensify into a ‘severe cyclonic storm’ by Monday morning, said India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Tropical Storm MAHASEN. Base Image:  8km Res Visible/Shortwave IR Image  2013/05/12/01:30UTC. Working Best Track  10MAY2013/06:00UTC- 12MAY2013/00:00UTC.   Official TCFC Forecast 12MAY2013/00:00UTC  (source: JTWC). Credit CIMSS

Indian Ocean’s first cyclone of the season, MAHASEN promises to bring heavy rains and high winds to the  region.

The storm was heading northwestwards, about 1,000km away from India’s eastern coast, as of posting. However, the cyclone could change trajectory moving towards the Bangladesh-Myanmar coast in the next 36 hours, said IMD.

ISSAC: Four Gulf Coast States Declare Emergencies

Mississippi, Louisiana, Florida and Alabama declare states of emergency, issue evacuation orders as TS ISSAC approaches

Four Gulf Coast states declared states of emergency as tropical storm ISSAC reached the mouth of GoM. Evacuation orders have been issued for the residents in the storm’s path.  The storm was expected to intensify to hurricane strength over the warmer waters.

Tropical Storm ISSAC. VIS/IR Sat Image. See inset for time. Source UW-CIMSS

ISSAC as of 03:00 UTC Sun Aug 26
Location: 24.2°N 82.9°W
Moving: WNW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained winds: 65 mph

 Tropical Storm Force Wind Probability

TS ISAAC. Tropical Storm Force Wind Probability Chart. Source: NHC/NWS

Other Global Disasters/ Significant Events

• El Salvador.  Powerful Magnitude 7.3 quake struck offshore El Salvador about 133 km (82 miles) S of Santiago de Maria, at 04:37UTC on Monday, August 27, 2012, USGS/EHP reported.
  • The quake was epicentered 12.278°N, 88.528°W and struck at a depth 20.3 km (12.6 miles).
  • A tsunami warning was issued for Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Panama and Mexico, but no significant wave was reported, as of posting (~ 11:40UTC).

• Kuril Islands, Russia. The Ivan Grozny (“Ivan the Terrible”) volcano on Iturup Island (Kuril islands group) erupted again, early Monday.
  • The volcano first erupted Thursday morning spewing a column of ash onto the surrounding towns of Goryachiye Klyuchi (10 km) and Kurilsk (25 km).

Other Storms

• TEMBIN Could Hit Taiwan Multiple Times Posted August 24, 2012

Related Links

• Satellite imagery
• Hurricane Warning
• U.S. Tornado Potential

Global Disasters: Links, Forecasts and Background

• The First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Back to the Primordial Future
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs
• Mass Die-offs

• 2010 Disasters [Links to 2010 Disaster Calendar]
• Mega Disasters
• 2011 Disaster Calendar
• 2012 Disaster Calendar

GLOBAL WARNINGS

• WARNING: Human impact 2.85 x Earth’s diminishing carrying capacity
• WARNING: RAPID DECLINE IN PROGRESS!

Tropical Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 20

SEE LATEST UPDATE AT >> TC ULUI – MAR 20 — 2nd UPDATE

Cyclones in NH: More Character?

TC ULUI has further weakened to a tropical storm with sustained winds of about 105 km/hr

Residents on the east coast of Australia in locations between about 17ºS and 27ºS should already be experiencing moderate to heavy winds accompanied by rain.

Cyclone ULUI  (TC 20P) Details on March 20 at 00:01UTC

• Position: 19.3S 153.8E
• Max Sustained Winds:  105 km/hr (~ 55 kt)
• Wind Gusts: 130 km/hr (~ 70 kt)
• Movement:  SW (225 degrees)
• Forward Speed:  ~ 24 km/hr (13 kt)
• Location: About 900 ESE of Cairns
• Maximum significant wave height: 7m (22 feet)
• Sources: JTWC, CIMSS and others.
• Comments: The cyclone’s deep convection has developed slightly, though  partially. ULUI is expected to weaken further before reaching ashore in about a day or so, and dissipate within a day thereafter.
• Australia’s own Bureau of Meteorology has warned that up to 30cm of rain could fall in areas under  the projected path of TC ULUI.

Cyclone ULUI Vis/IR Satellite image with GFS forecast track superimposed. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

On the Ground …

Meanwhile, Australia’s Queensland prime minister (they have one for each state), Anna Bligh, has lost her nerve declaring a disaster zone across the state’s central and northern coast a day ahead of cyclone ULUI arrival.

Bligh declared the Townsville, Burdekin, Whitsunday, Charters Towers, Mackay, Isaac, Rockhampton and Central Highlands as disaster areas.

“This declaration is in anticipation that some properties may need to be evacuated in the coming hours as Tropical Cyclone Ului approaches and then crosses the North Queensland coast,” she said.

“The declaration gives Emergency Services agencies the power of mandatory evacuations (!) if required.”

Cyclone ULUI – 1km Visible Image. The center of ULUI appears as a slight depression near 19S, 154E on this image. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone ULUI – Visible [postcard]  image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 20, 2010 at 00:00UTC.   Source: Digital Typhoon.  Click image to enlarge.

For additional images click on the following links:

• Visible
• Visible Loop
• IR
• IR Loop
• Colorized IR
• Colorized IR loop.
• Water Vapor
• Water vapor loop

How ULUI was born:

• Last 24 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 120 Hours : MPEG / WMV
• Last 240 Hours : MPEG / WMV

ULUI History and Related Links:

• TC ULUI: Mid-air refueling
• Cyclone ULUI – UPDATE Mar 18
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 17

• Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia
• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 16
• Tropical Cyclone TOMAS
• Tropical Cyclone ULUI

• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15
• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 17

ULUI Goes to Australia

Two for the price of one cyclone!

See also:

Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia

TC ULUI is moving slowly (6 km/hr) toward the east coast of Australia (Queensland).

Two of the available models (NGP and CMC) suggest ULUI could make landfall close to 20ºS  latitude which could mean it will strike the Australian coast as a cat 3A or 2B hurricane on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale with sustained winds of up to 180 km/hr (gusts of up to 230 km/hr).

A third model (GFS) predicts landfall south of the 20ºS latitude, which might suggest a Category 1 hurricane force, or weaker, with sustained winds of up to 150km/hr (wind gusts of about 180 km/hr).

JTWC suggest land fall south of 21.5ºS latitude with sustained winds of up to 120 km/hr (wind gusts of about 155 km/hr).

ULUI is currently located about 1,320km NORTHEAST of Townsville, and 1,300km NNE of Rockhampton, QLD, Australia.

Moderators’ forecast concurs closer with the CMC model, for now.

Dynamic Model Forecasts. Source CIMSS. Click Images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone ULUI showing near-perfect longitudinal symmetry – Visible image – MTSAT 1R – Dated March 17, 2010 at 00:00UTC.   Source: Digital Typhoon.  Click image to enlarge.

Two for the price of one cyclone!

Cyclone TOMAS is still going strong with sustained winds  of about 220 km/hr and gusts of up to 260 km/hr. Its currently located near 26.3S, 176.5W.

TCs ULUI and TOMAS – Visible image – MTSAT EAST (NOAA)

Other Images and Animations

• Visible
• Visible Loop
• IR
• IR Loop
• Colorized IR
• Colorized IR loop.
• Water Vapor
• Water vapor loop

Related Links:

• Cyclone ULUI: Enough Fuel to Land in Australia
• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 16
• Tropical Cyclone TOMAS
• Tropical Cyclone ULUI

• Cyclones TOMAS and ULUI – UPDATE Mar 15
• Cyclones ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 14
• TC ULUI and TOMAS – UPDATE Mar 13
• Tropical Cyclones Now Come in Pairs
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Cyclone GELANE – UPDATE 3 (Feb 20)

GELANE Still a Major Hurricane, May Turn Deadly

Tropical Cyclone GELANE, having reached sustained wind speeds of  about 235 km/hr, is now a Cat. 4A Hurricane force on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale with sustained winds of about 218 km/he (117.5 kt) and wind gusts of up to 260 km/hr (140 kt).

The Cyclone could track west moving toward Madagascar with the islands of Mauritius and  Réunion still in crosshairs.

Cyclone GELANE Visible/IR Satellite Image. Source: UW-CIMSS.  Click images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) Details

• Date/Time: 20 February 2010 –  01:00 UTC
• Position:  Near 18.5ºS, 61.5ºE
• Sustained Movement: 200  degrees
  
• Forward speed:  13 km/hr ( 7 kt)
• The system has been tracking  SSW.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 218 km/hr (117.5 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 260 km/hr (~ 140kt)
• GELANE is currently a Cat. 4A Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 10m (30 ft)
  
• Location: TC GELANE was located about ~ 685km (~ 370 NM) NORTHEAST (246.3 degrees) of  Saint-Denis, Réunion, and about 455 km EAST-NORTHEAST (245.5 degrees) of  Port Louis, Mauritius.
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

GELANE Satellite Image – Meto France.

• Radar Animation
• Satellite image animation

The MODIS instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite caught an impressive visible image of Gelane on February 19 at 09:45 UTC (4:45 a.m. ET) that clearly showed the eye of this Category 4 cyclone. Credit: NASA MODIS Rapid Response Team. Click Image to Enlarge!

The AIRS instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured Gelane on Feb. 19 at 4:41 a.m. ET (09:41UTC). Even Gelane’s eye is visible in this infrared image, and it’s surrounded by very high, powerful thunderstorms with cloud tops as cold as -63F. Credit: NASA/JPL, Ed Olsen. Click Image to Enlarge!

Related Links:

• CYCLONE GELANE: AVOID ME IF YOU CAN
• Cyclone GELANE UPDATE 2 (Feb 19)
• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18)
• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S)
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Cyclone GELANE UPDATE 2 (Feb 19)

TC GELANE Strengthens to a Category 3A Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

With sustained winds of about 190 km/hr (gusts of up to 235 km/hr), Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) is now a Category 3A Hurricane on  FEWW New Hurricane Scale. Fire-Earth believes the cyclone would reach Category 4A strength, possibly stronger, as forecast yesterday.

The system is expected to continue intensifying during the next 36 hours. The coral reef island of Rodrigues should expect heavy rain as the cyclone moves closer.

Cyclone GELANE. Water Vapor satellite images. Source: UW-CIMSS.  Click images to enlarge.

Tropical Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) Details

• Date/Time: 19 February 2010 –  01:00 UTC
• Position:  Near 16.3ºS, 62.5ºE
• Sustained Movement: 180  degrees
  
• Forward speed:  9 km/hr ( 5 kt)
• The system has been tracking  SOUTH over the past 6 hours.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds:  190km/hr (102 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 235 km/hr (~ 125kt)
• GELANE is currently a Cat. 3A Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 9m (27 ft)
  
• Location: TC GELANE was located about ~ 885 km (~ 475 NM) NE of Réunion island.
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

|
GELANE through the eye of TRMM. Credit: NASA/SSAI

Related Links:

• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S) UPDATE 1 (Feb 18)
• Cyclone GELANE (TC 16S)
• FEWW New Hurricane Scale

Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 4 (14 Feb)

RENE Headed Toward Tonga

At its current intensity and forecast track, Cyclone RENE could cause major damage to Tonga Isls.

Cyclone RENE could strike Hunga Island, the smaller islands to its SSW, and cause major damage to Tongatapu and Eua Islands.

An archipelago in the S. Pacific Ocean, Tonga is located south of Western Samoa. Its 176 islands (only 36 of them inhabited) are divided into three main groups: Vava’u, Ha’apai, and Tongatapu). The largest island, Tongatapu, covers about 258 sq. km (~ 100  sq. mi) and is home to the capital city of Nukuʻalofa.

The island of Niue must already be experiencing some of the peripheral forces of RENE, as it passes by.

Tropical Cyclone RENE – IR-WV Difference Satellite Image – Source: UW-CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

Map of Tonga Island Groups. Source: USGovt. Click image to enlarge.

Background:

• RENE Heading West
• RENE Hovering Near PAGO-PAGO
• Slow Forward Motion May Help RENE to Strengthen

Tropical Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Details

• Date/Time: 14 February 2010 –  01:00 UTC
• Position:  Near 16.5ºS, 171.0ºW
• Sustained Movement: 215  degrees
  
• Forward speed: 22 km/hr (~ 12 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone RENE has been tracking  SOUTHWEST over the past 6 hours.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: ~ 175km (~ 95 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 230 km/hr (~ 125 kt)
• RENE is now a Cat 2B Hurricane on FEWW New Hurricane Scale and could further strengthen to  Cat 3B on the scale in the next 24 hours.

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 9m (27 ft)
  
• Location: TC RENE was located about 240 km (~ 130 NM) SSW of Pago-Pago
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

Additional Satellite Imagery

NOAA East Pacific Floater 1 GOES Satellite Imagery – Cyclone FIFTEEN (TC 15P)

• Visible  Image – Java – Flash
• IR AVN  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Shortwave  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Dvorak*  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Unenhanced  Image – Java – Flash
• IR JSL  Image – Java – Flash
• IR RGB  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Funktop  Image – Java – Flash
• IR Rainbow  Image – Java – Flash
• Water Vapor  Image – Java – Flash

See also: UW- CIMSS Cyclone Portal

Related Links:

• Cyclone RENE Update 3 (13 Feb)
• Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 2 (13 Feb)
• Cyclone RENE (TC 15P) Update 1 (12 Feb)
• Introducing Tropical Cyclone Fifteen (Cyclone RENE)
• FEWW Satellite Imagery Links Page

Introducing Tropical Cyclone Fifteen

Tropical Cyclone Fifteen (TC 15 P) is now the second active system in the South Pacific

FIFTEEN shows early signs it could develop into a major cyclone (hurricane)in the next 48 to 60 hours

Tropical Cyclone FIFTEEN. IR Satellite Image. Source: UW-CIMSS. Click image to enlarge.

Cyclone FIFTEEN Details

• Date/Time: 11 February 2010 –  06:00 UTC
• Position:  Near 12.2ºS, 167.1ºW
• Sustained Movement: 75  degrees
  
• Forward speed: 13 km/hr (~ 7 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone FIFTEEN has been tracking  ENE over the past 6 hours.
  

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 75km (40 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 95 km/hr (~ 50 kt)
• FIFTEEN is currently an active Tropical Cyclone
  

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 3.3m (10 ft)
  
• Location: FIFTEEN was located about 425 km (~ 230 NM) NNE of Pago-Pago
• The system is expected to make a sharp turn heading in the WSW  direction (225 degrees) within the next 12 hours, JTWC said.
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

NOAA East Pacific Floater 1 GOES Satellite Imagery ================
Cyclone FIFTEEN (TC 15P)
Visible  Image – Java – Flash
IR AVN  Image – Java – Flash
IR Shortwave  Image – Java – Flash
IR Dvorak*  Image – Java – Flash
IR Unenhanced  Image – Java – Flash
IR JSL  Image – Java – Flash
IR RGB  Image – Java – Flash
IR Funktop  Image – Java – Flash
IR Rainbow  Image – Java – Flash
Water Vapor  Image – Java – Flash

Cyclone PAT (TC 14P) Update 1 (10 Feb)

Where Shall I Go Next? Avarua is on the Way!

Cyclone PAT Tracks South on Open Waters, For Now

Tropical Cyclone PAT – IR NHC Enhanced Satellite Image. Source: CIMSS – Date/time – Feb 10, 2010 at 00:01UTC. Click image to enter CIMSS portal.

TC PAT Details

• Time/Date: 10 February 2010 –  00:01 UTC
• Position:  Near 16.9ºS, 159.1ºW
• Sustained Movement: 190  degrees
• Forward speed: 13 km/hr (~ 7 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone PAT has been tracking  southward over the past 6 hours.

Current Wind Distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 143 km (~ 77 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  ~ 167 km/hr (~ 90 kt)
• Cyclone PAT is currently a Category 1 Hurricane
  

Wave Height and Location:

• Maximum significant wave height: ~ 5.7m (17 ft)
• Location: PAT was located about 510 km (~ 275 NM) north of Rarotonga
  
• Sources: CIMSS, JTWC and Others

Related Links:

• Cyclone PAT Revving Up in S Pacific

Cyclone OLI May Target Tourist Spots

Tropical Cyclone OLI (12P) May be Heading Towards Bora Bora and other Tourist Spots in S Pacific

TC OLI Details

• Time/Date: 3 February 2010 –  03:00UTC
• Position: 15.7ºS, 157.3ºW
• Sustained Movement: 120 degrees
• Forward speed: 15 km/hr (~ 8 kt)
• Tropical Cyclone OLI has been tracking ESE over the past 6 hours.
  

Current wind distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 100 km/hr (~ 55 kt)
• Maximum Gusts:  130 km/hr (~ 70 kt)
• Maximum significant wave height: 6 m (18 ft)
• OLI is about 650 km (350nm) west of Bora Bora.
• Sources: JTWC and Others

Tropical Cyclone OLI is expected to intensify under favorable environmental conditions.

TC OLI – IR NHC Enhancement – Date and Time as Inset. Credit: UW-CIMSS. Click image to enlarge and update.

Tropical Cyclone OLI. Infrared Color Background  – South East Pacific – GOES-West. Credit: UW-CIMSS. Click image to enlarge and update.

• 2-Day Movie:   JAVA

OLI’s Projected Path. CIMSS Estimation. Click image to enlarge and update.

TC OLI. Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS, with Infrared (MIMIC-IR)
Version 1.

Tropical Cyclone OLI. Infrared  – South East Pacific – GOES-West. Credit UW-CIMSS. Click image to enlarge and update.

Tropical Cyclone OLI Position Map. Original map by Google. Information added by Fire-Earth.

Tropical Cyclone EDZANI Strengthens

TC EDZANI (07S) UPDATE

Tropical cyclone EDZANI  intensifies

• Time/Date: 7 January 2010 – 00:01UTC
• Position: 13.8ºS, 80.3ºE
• Sustained Movement: 245 degrees
• Forward speed: 19km/hr (10 kt)

Current wind distribution:

• Maximum Sustained winds: 75 km/hr (40 kt)
• Maximum Gusts: 95 km/hr (~ 50 kt)
• Source: JTWC and Others

Observation:

• Tropical Cyclone EDZANI (TC 07S) is currently located about 1,200 km (650 nm) ESE of Diego Garcia, tracking west-southwestward at 19 km/hr (10 knots).

• “Animated multispectral imagery and an SSMIS microwave image [taken on 06 Jan at 11:37UTC show] improved convective consolidation and an increasingly symmetric low level circulation center (LLCC).” JTWC reported.

Infrared METEOSAT-5 Indian Ocean. Credit: CIMSS Tropical Cyclones Group

• Click HERE for JAVA Animation

Related Links:

• Tropical Cyclone Seven Forms
• El Niño
• Satellite Imagery

The Attack of the Cyclones

5 Tropical Cyclone Systems Active Globally, 4 in the Southern Hemisphere

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05B (WARD) – Indian Ocean

• Date Time: December 14 00:00 UTC
• Approximate Position: 8.9N 81.4E
• Location:  160 nmi northeast of Colombo, Sri Lanka.
• Movement: Has been tracking west (270 degrees) at 04 knots during  the past six hours.
• Max Sustained Winds:  30 knots; Gusts: 40 knots
• Max Significant Wave Heights: 3.6 m (11 feet)

TC Ward MTSAT 1R (IR4) + Blue Marble Satellite Image. Click image to enlarge. Source: Digital Typhoon

• Animation of last 168 hours : MPEG / WMV

TC Ward Projected Path. Click image to enlarge. Source: JTWC

TC Ward Satellite Image. Click image to enlarge. Source: JTWC

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (MICK)

# 01 Active Tropical Cyclone in South Pacific

• Date Time: December 14 00:00 UTC
• Approximate Position: 15.6S 176.5E
• Location:  Located approximately 145 nmi north-northwest of Nadi, Fiji.
• Movement: Has been tracking 150 degrees at 09  knots during  the past six hours.
• Max Sustained Winds:  055 knots, Gusts 070 knots
• Max Significant Wave Heights: 6 m (18 feet)

TC Mick is intensify buffeting the tourist area of the Yasawa Islands west of Fiji with strong winds and torrential rain.

Mick may be heading towards Tonga.

TC Mick Projected Path. Click image to enlarge. Source: JTWC

TC Mick Satellite Image. Click image to enlarge. Source: JTWC

TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (Laurence)

# 02 Active Tropical Cyclone in Southern Hemisphere

• Date Time: December 14 00:00 UTC
• Approximate Position: 12.0S 125.4E
• Location:  Located approximately 235 nmi west of Darwin, Australia
• Movement: Has been tracking 290 degrees at 06  knots during  the past six hours.
• Max Sustained Winds:  035 knots, Gusts 045 knots
• Max Significant Wave Heights: 3.6 m (11 feet)

TC Laurence Projected Path. Click image to enlarge. Source: JTWC

TC Laurence Satellite Image. Click image to enlarge. Source: JTWC

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (Five)

# 03 Active Tropical Cyclone in Southern Hemisphere

• Date Time: December 14 00:00 UTC
• Approximate Position: 11.7S 82.4E
• Location:  Located approximately 650 nmi southeast of Diego Garcia Island.
• Movement: Has been tracking 220 degrees at 06  knots during  the past six hours.
• Max Sustained Winds:  035 knots, Gusts 045 knots
• Max Significant Wave Heights: 3.3 m (10 feet)

TC Five Projected Path. Click image to enlarge. Source: JTWC

TC Five Satellite Image. Click image to enlarge. Source: JTWC

TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (Cleo)

# 04 Active Tropical Cyclone in Southern Hemisphere

• Date Time: December 14 00:00 UTC
• Approximate Position: 17.7S 61.7E
• Location:  Located approximately 400 nmi east-northeast Réunion Island, Indian Ocean
• Movement: Has been tracking 190 degrees at 07  knots during  the past six hours.
• Max Sustained Winds:  030 knots, Gusts 040 knots
• Max Significant Wave Heights: 3.3 m (10 feet)

TC Cleo Projected Path. Click image to enlarge. Source: JTWC

TC Cleo Satellite Image. Click image to enlarge. Source: JTWC

• Latest Full Disk Image Available Here
  

[Conversion Note: 1 nautical mile (nmi) = 1.852 km; 1 knot = 1nmi per hour]

Related links:

• FEWW Satellite Imagery Index