The Storm Trio

Image of the Day:

The Three ‘Synchronized’ Storms

L-R: FRANK, DANIELLE, MINDULLE

Source: CIMSS. 

STORM UPDATE: Ida Coming Back?

What are the chances of Ida coming back?

At 06:00 UTC (12:00 AM CST) TS Ida was located about 150 km (95 miles) south-southwest of  Mobile Alabama.

Dangerous storm tide created by Ida will raise water levels by up to 1.5 meter ( 5 feet) above ground along the coast near and to the East of where storm center makes landfall, as well as in areas of onshore flow in southeastern Louisiana, NOAA NHC said. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves near the coast.

Summary of TS Ida Status:

As of 06:00 UTC Tue Nov 10  (12:00 AM CST)
Location: 29.5°N 88.8°W
Max sustained winds :  96 km/h (60 mph)
Moving: N  (360 degrees) at  16 km/h (10 mph)
Min pressure: 29.47 inches (998 mb)

What are the chances of Ida Coming Back?

What’s the probability of Ida doing a U-Turn, restrengthening into a hurricane-force storm  for a third time, and slamming into the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico, again?

FEWW Moderators believe there’s a 1 in 5 chance [P=0.2] that remnants of Idea could be pinwheeled back into the Gulf of Mexico by a slowly developing system to the east, moving NNW and striking the coast of Louisiana, and further to the west, with renewed intensity.

Layer Wind Mean Analysis. Right click image, then select ‘view image’ to enlarge.

Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Image and Animation

Click image to animate.

GOES AVNCOLOR Enhancement – Still image Dated as inset. Click image to enlarge and update.

Storm Ida – Earth Observatory

Ida captured by Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite on November 9 at 6:17 a.m. U.S. Central Time. Though Ida was still a hurricane, it was quickly weakening. While spots of heavy rain remain, the storm’s circular organization is no longer apparent. NASA image courtesy Hal Pierce, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Caption by Holli Riebeek, NASA’s Earth Observatory. Edited by FEWW.

Cumulative Wind History

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Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities – 120 Hours

Click image to enlarge.

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to enlarge.

Related Links:

• Ida Became a Hurricane, Again!
• Could Ida Become a Hurricane?
• Hurricanes 2009

Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?

Typhoon Melor may be heading toward Kanto region, Japan

Barring  a big surprise or last-minute change of heart, typhoon Melor will only briefly enter the Philippines territory late Monday (local time), exiting mostly uneventfully by early Tuesday.

Typhoon Melor. MTSAT Unenhanced Still Image. Time and date as inset. To update and enlarge, click on image. The very slow moving storm Parma to the WNW of Melor loitering in NW Luzon and southern tip of Taiwan region could be dragged back to Luzon, as Melor heads NNW towards Japan. Note Melor’s well-defined eye and its near-perfect symmetry.

Typhoon Melor. MTSAT RGB Still Image. Time and date as inset. To update and enlarge, click on image. [Remember, Earth is NOT flat. :)]

Typhoon Melor. MTSAT Infra Red Short Wave – Still Image. Time and date as inset. To update and enlarge, click on image.

For additional images and animation, visit Satellite Imagery Links Page.

Melor is not expected to impact Philippines directly, but it is controlling the movement of typhoon Parma, which is moving west very slowly as it passes over northern Luzon.

The two typhoons  are interacting, somewhat pinwheeling [“Fujiwhara Effect,”] with Melor packing more powerful winds being the driver, as Parma weakens. In fact, it is possible that Melor could drag Parma back on to Luzon, at least temporarily.

Melor spared Guam and Saipan over the weekend, with NWS in Guam reporting gusts of up to 38 mph and little rain as Melor moved north away from the island Saturday night.

The following information is provided by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

TYPHOON 0918 (Melor) Issued at 00:45 UTC, 5 October 2009

Forecast for 05:00 UTC, 5 October 2009

• Intensity: Very Intense
• Center position:  N18°30′(18.5°),  E136°20′(136.3°)
• Direction and speed of movement: WNW 25km/h(14kt)
• Central pressure: 910hPa
• Maximum wind speed near the center: 198 km/h
• Maximum wind gust speed : 288 km/h
• Area of 50kt (93km/h) winds or more  : 190km (100NM)
• Area of 30kt (56km/h) winds or more: NE560km, SW390km(210NM)

JMA forecast track for Typhoon Melor. Image may be subject to copyright.

Related Links:

• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting
• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana
• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory

FEWW FORECAST: 2009 Likely Wettest Year on Record

Drought and Deluge: The Buzzwords for 2009

Extreme Weather,Tropical Storms, Heavy Rainfalls, Moisture Dump by Intertropical Convergence Zone and Other Hydrological Mechanisms Would Ensure Perpetual Drought and Deluge in 2009 and Beyond

If 2009 won’t be remembered for the frequency of tropical storms, it could most likely be recorded as one of the wettest years, so far.

Drought and deluge would be the buzz words for the remainder of this year. Already significantly large geographical regions have been inundated by flooding caused by extreme rain events and storms worldwide.

In northern New South Wales, Australia, a week of heavy rainfall and cyclonic winds  have left thousands of hectares of coastal plains under water. Huge waves have pummeled the coastal regions, disrupting shipping activities in  major ports.

Every major river in the region has risen above historical records, most of them bursting their banks. Floodwaters have swept cars into the sea. Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes.

Residents make their way through the flooded streets of South Lismore May 22, 2009.  REUTERS/Michael Ross/Gold Coast Bulletin/Handout

In northern and northeastern Brazil, record heavy rains have forced up to half of a million people homeless, killing about 50. [Southern Brazil is experiencing extreme droughts, which have devastated the farmers in the region cutting their natural water supply by up to 50 percent.

An aerial view of the town of Anama, flooded by water from the Rio Solimoes river in Amazonas State, May 19, 2009. Floods and mudslides from months of heavy rains in northern Brazil have driven more than 300,000 from their homes and killed at least 44 people, according to Brazilian Civil Defense. REUTERS/Michael Dantas-A Critica (BRAZIL DISASTER ENVIRONMENT) BRAZIL OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN BRAZIL

2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary

NOAA says its 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook predicts “a 50% chance of a near-normal season,” a 25% chance of an above-normal season and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. [The Atlantic hurricane region comprises the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico.]

Just so that reader is not confused, NOAA provides the following table [information in the brackets added]

• 9-14 Named Storms [Normal:11]
  
• 4-7 Hurricanes  [6]
  
• 1-3 Major Hurricanes [2]
  
• An ACE range of 65%-130% of the median [100%]

[NOTE: This sort of forecast ensures that the forecaster is rarely embarrassed for not covering ALL probabilities]

Colorado State University report says:

The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have about as much activity as the average 1950-2000 season.

Expect about:

• 6 hurricanes (average is 5.9),
• 12 named storms (average is 9.6),
• 55 named storm days (average is 49.1),
• 25 hurricane days (average is 24.5),
• 2 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and
• 5 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0).

University of North Carolina Forecast

The good professor marooned on the totally boring, uneventful University of North Carolina’s deserted campus had this to say [before academic rigor mortis set in]

Researchers at North Carolina State University believe that 2009 will bring a near-normal hurricane season, with storm activity in the Atlantic basin and the Gulf of Mexico slightly above the averages of past 50 years, but staying in line with those from the past 20 years.

According to Dr. Lian Xie, professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences, and collaborators Dr. Montserrat Fuentes, professor of statistics, and graduate student Danny Modlin, 2009 should see 11 to 14 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, which includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.

Frankly, a history professor and his undergrad students could have done … pretty much about the same.

For readers new to hurricane science, the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts on June 1, and lasts through November 30 every year. Each tropical system is given a name as soon as their storm strength reaches  sustained winds of 39 mph or more. Tropical storms are upgraded to  hurricanes when sustain wind speed reach 74 mph, and become major hurricanes when winds rise to 111 mph.  The first TS for 2009 will be Ana. [See also FEWW Hurricane Scale.]

More will follow …

Related Links:

• What if each time a storm struck your area it turned out to be a major hurricane?
• 2009 Hurricane Season: Storms in Teacup, or Nasty Surprises?

FEWW New Hurricane Scale

FEWW New Hurricane Scale Makes Hurricane Classification More Meaningful!

FEWW’s New Hurricane Scale is based on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale and provides a more detailed definition of hurricane forces.

Size Description

To make the classification of tropical cyclones even more descriptive, FIRE-EARTH recommends the addition of following suffixes for storm size to denote the category:

• Midget hurricanes (m). With the average radius from the storm’s center of circulation to its outermost closed isobar (ROCI) in four quadrants measuring less than two degrees of latitude [222.2 km or 138.1 miles.]

• Small. Small Hurricanes (s).  ROCI measuring between 2 and 3 degrees of latitude [222km< ROCI< 333km]
• Regular. Average Hurricanes (r). ROCI measuring between 3 and 6 degrees of latitude [333km< ROCI< 667km]
• Large. Large Hurricanes (g). ROCI of between 6 and 8 degrees of latitude [667km< ROCI< 889km]
• Monster. Very Large Hurricanes (x). ROCI of larger than 8 degrees of latitude [ROCI> 889km]

Example: Hurricane GRETA, with ROCI of 960km, the largest ever recorded Atlantic hurricane, which reached a maximum sustained winds of about 225km/h on November 5, 1956 may be represented as a Monster hurricane, or 4Ax category hurricane on the FEWW New Hurricane Scale.

Dolly’s Climaxed!

Having dumped about 12 inches of rain within hours of coming ashore as a category 2 hurricane at South Padre Island on Wednesday causing widespread flooding in S. Texas and N. Mexico, Dolly’s is finally reduced to a tropical depression.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
400 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2008

DOLLY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION – STILL DUMPING HEAVY RAINS

AT 400 PM CDT…2100Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 100.6 WEST OR ABOUT
35 MILES…55 KM SOUTH OF EAGLE PASS TEXAS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH…23
KM/HR…AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH…55 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB…29.53 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DOLLY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION…28.2 N…100.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON DOLLY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER…UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT4
KWNH…BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT. – FORECASTER AVILA

Related Links:

• National Weather Warnings
• Thought for the Day
• 2008: Year of the Fire
• Will 2008 be year of the tornadoes, too?
• 2008: Year of the Expected Unknowns!

Dolly Wreaks Havoc Across South Texas

Dolly dropped up to 12 inches (30 cm) of rain in the first few hours of making landfall

Dolly made landfall on South Padre Island, Texas, about 2 p.m. ET, tearing roofs and observation decks off homes, shattering windows and downing power lines. It flooded the streets and sent about 2,500 residents scrambling for safety from wind gusts of about 150 mph.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry declared 14 counties disaster areas prior to Dolly’s arrival. About 1,500 National Guardsmen have been deployed, according to various news bulletins.

In Northern Mexico, about 20,000 people are expected to be evacuated to government shelters according to Eugenio Hernandez, governor of Tamaulipas, Mexico.

It is unclear why the efforts of a certain “hurricane control” company failed so miserably! </sarc>

A boat is blown into the building by Hurricane Dolly in Port Isabel, Texas July 23, 2008. Hurricane Dolly moved inland after tearing into the south Texas coast on Wednesday with 95 mph (150 kph) winds, pouring torrential rain on the U.S.-Mexico border area and threatening floods. Dolly, the second hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, dropped up to 12 inches (30 cm) of rain in the first few hours after coming ashore at the barrier island of South Padre Island, where it ripped off roofs, bent palm trees in half and left thousands of residents without power. REUTERS/Joe Mitchell (UNITED STATES) Image may be subject to copyright. See FEWW Fair Use Notice!

HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
5:00 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

THE EYE OF DOLLY MADE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN PADRE ISLAND EARLIER
TODAY AS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY ONE TO CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT LANDFALL
REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB AND WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED BETWEEN 80 AND 85 KNOTS. THE EYE IS NOW PARTIALLY INLAND
OVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY
INTERACTING WITH LAND…A GRADUAL WEAKENING HAS BEGUN. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED A 75 KNOTS AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS DOLLY MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE INLAND DECAY SHIPS MODEL.

DOLLY BEGAN TO MOVE ON A MORE STEADY NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 7
KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES…THEREFORE…A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT
48 HOURS.

DOLLY IS A LARGE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND CAN CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. – FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane DOLLY QuickLook – Posted: 15:00 CDT 07/23/2008 – NOAA

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
400 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2008

DOLLY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO JUST SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY…AND FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER
BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.

AT 4 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM BAFFIN BAY
NORTHWARD TO CORPUS CHRISTI HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT O’CONNOR.

AT 4 PM CDT…2100 UTC…THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE
WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT THE EYE OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES
80 KM NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/HR). A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS WILL BRING DOLLY FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140
KM/HR) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES (220 KM).

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB…28.64 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12
INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING UP TO 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW BUT WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION…26.6 N…97.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…85 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT. – FORECASTER AVILA

UPDATE: TS DOLLY, CRISTOBAL & Hurricane Fausto

For July 23 UPDATE Click Here >> Dolly, Now A Hurricane, Heads Towards S. Texas

Look Out, Dolly Is Coming!

Dolly May Be Heading Towards Southern Texas

NOAA Advisories:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

DOLLY ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

AT 8 AM EDT (1200 UTC) THE GOVERNMENT OF YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DOLLY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA – INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH/LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 65 MILES (105 KM) EAST-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/HR). A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/HR) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE STORM MOVES OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DOLLY COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES (280 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON PRELIMINARY REPORTS
FROM NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION 21.6 N. 88.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM EDT. – FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

CRISTOBAL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS

AT 500 AM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 110
MILES (175 KM) NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH (20
KM/HR) AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK CRISTOBAL WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/HR) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES (205 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB…29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION 36.1 N 73.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

1100 AM EDT. – FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

BULLETIN
HURRICANE FAUSTO ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072008
200 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008

FAUSTO STRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY TWO STATUS

AT 200 AM PDT THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 115.4 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES
(650 KM) WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

FAUSTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/HR) AND
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH (160 KM/HR) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE HURRICANE HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND
SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES (65 KM) FROM
THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES (185 KM).

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB (28.79 INCHES).

REPEATING THE 200 AM PDT POSITION 20.1 N. 115.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
800 AM PDT. – FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH

Related Links:

• HURRICANE FAUSTO
• Tropical Storm Cristobal Treks Northeast
• National Weather Warnings

.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Treks Northeast

Cristobal, the first of the season’s tropical storms to menace the southeastern U.S.

Cristobal – GOES – Water Vapor Image – July 20, 08:45 UTC

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

…CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD…

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER…INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT…0000Z…THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH…LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES…210 KM…EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 185
MILES…300 KM…SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH…10 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK…THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL AND VERY
CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH…75 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES…140 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB…29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST…WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION…33.2 N…77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Related Links:

• National Weather Warnings

More images are available at Oceanview and Weather.

.

UPDATE: HURRICANE BERTHA

See Latest Update [July 14, 2008] Bertha Revving UP!

5:00 PM AST WED JUL 09 2008

BERTHA STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE

Hurricane BERTHA Public Advisory #27

AT 500 PM AST…2100Z…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH…LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 560 MILES…
900 KM…NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ABOUT 660
MILES…1060 KM…SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

Portrait of Bertha [Updated] NOAA

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH…19 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH…165 KM/HR…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND BERTHA COULD AGAIN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.

Bertha Heading West/Northwest. [Updated] NOAA

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB…28.64 INCHES.

LARGE SWELLS AND HIGH SURF COULD BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BERMUDA
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION…24.8 N…58.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD…NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST. FORECASTER RHOME

Relate Links:

• Weather
• Watch out! Big Bertha might be heading your way!
• Bertha public advisory