Possible Tropical Cyclone Forming Near Luzon

Tropical Depression Tino Moving Towards N. Luzon

At 12:00 UTC, today, Tropical Depression “TINO” was near 17.3°N, 123.9°E, or about 200 km East of Tuguegarao City, moving West at 11 km/h.

• Maximum sustained winds: 60 kp/h
• Significant Wave heights: Up to 7.5 meter (23 feet)

“Strong to gale force winds is expected to affect the seaboards of northern and central Luzon,” Philippines DOST PAGASA said.

MTSAT – IR Still Image – Time and Date as Inset. Click image to update.

Tropical Depression TINO [local name]  Moving ENE toward northern Luzon. MTSAT IR1. Still Image on 2 November 2009, timed at 12:30UTC. Dost Pagasa. Click image to enlarge and update.

Philippines  Cyclones Since August 2009

• 30 Oct: Typhoon Mirinae Struck Quezon, leaving up to 20 dead or missing.
• 3 Oct: Typhoon Parma’s triggered floods and landslides killing more than 200.
• 26 Sept: Tropical Storm Ketsana dumped more water on Manila and neighboring provinces than ever recorded, killing up to 400, and leaving a quarter of a million people homeless.
• 7 Aug: Typhoon Morakot swept northern Luzon, killing more than 10 people.

Related Links:

• TS MIRINAE – UPDATE 31 October 2009
• MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way
• Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT

Previous entries:

• MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way
• Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT

Source Page: FEWW Satellite Imagery

MTSAT/ NOAA

• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible
• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR

• West Pacific/South China Sea – Water Vapor
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Visible
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Infrared
• West Pacific/South China Sea-  Enhanced IR

Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

• West Pacific – Infrared
• West Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• West Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Pacific – Visible
• West Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Infrared
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Enhanced IR
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR
• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible

• West Central Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Central Pacific – Visible
• West Central Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Central Pacific – Infrared
• West Central Pacific IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Related Links:

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes

• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch
• How Much Can a Single Natural Event Affect You?
• Floods leave 2.5% of Colombia’s population homeless
• Earth’s Human Induced Antiphase Nears Completion
  

• Remember this Image!

• Carbon Footprint of Your Dollar
• World Problems: The Root Cause Matrix
• First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Giga Trends
• World CO2 Emissions

• Wall Street Cognitive Dissonance
• Failing Ecosystems
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs

Previous Storms:

• Photo of LUPIT Near Northern Luzon

• UPDATE: Typhoon LUPIT Arrives
• Typhoon LUPIT: Cruel, Harsh, or Wicked?
• Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm
• Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009
• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

• Parma Hampers Recovery Efforts in Vietnam
• Philippines Still Flooded
• Philippines Terminally Impacted?

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

Related Links:

• Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT
• MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way

Mirinae: Philippines Phlooded

Tropical Storm MIRINAE – UPDATE 02 November 2009 at 15:UTC

On 02 November 2009 at 15:00 UTC Tropical Storm MIRINAE was located near 12.5N, 108.0E, or approximately 290 km northeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. The strom has been tracking westward (260 degrees) at a forward speed of about 22km/h during the past six hours, having made landfall shortly after 06:00 UTC. “The Low level circulation center (LLCC) is expected to dissolve over land within the next 12 hours. Remnant vorticity may track towards the Gulf of Thailand,” JTWC said, but the LLCC is not expected to redevelop.

• Maximum Sustained Winds:  85 km/h
  
• Maximum Wind Gusts:  102 km/h

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Image of the Day:

Philippines After Mirinae

Philippines Govt sent naval boats to Santa Cruz where roads were heavily flooded. Even after the floodwater receded after rain had eased, it was still reported as “chest-high” in some areas. Photo: AP. Image may be subject to copyright.

Initial Impact of Mirinae on the Philippines

• Mirinae was the fourth storm in a month to pummel the Philippines.

• It made landfall on the eastern coastal province of Quezon, buffeting the area with winds of 150 km/h and gusts of up to 190 km/h.

• The typhoon struck Quezon about 24:00 UTC, Friday, moving west, south of Manila as it weakened overland into a tropical storm Saturday afternoon, and headed in the direction of Vietnam.

• Heavy rain and strong winds caused more damage to the already storm stricken areas in the region.

• Typhoon Mirinae took a similar path to storm Ketsana, whose heavy rains inundated Manila in September causing the worst floods in living memory.

• The worst storm-related floods in living memory have left hundreds dead , with up to a quarter of a million homeless.

• Up to 20 people have been killed or were reported as missing, including 7 confirmed  deaths, as of posting. A man was drowned and his small baby washed away in Pililla township in Rizal province, east of Manila, as they tried to cross an overflowing creek, reports said.

• Six more people were killed in Laguna province, south of the capital, and up to a dozen people are reported missing.

• In the town of Santa Cruz the roads were flooded, residents waded through a chest high mix of muddy floodwater and sewage after Mirinae dumped heavy rains in the area. govt sent in naval boats to help with rescue operation.

• “The waters were really high. It was like a flashflood. It was waist deep in our area but in other areas it went as high as the rooftops,” a local official was quoted as saying.

• Up to 120,000 people were evacuated in areas south of Manila. Residents in other areas were told to prepare essential supplies for 3 days, and stay put.

• Some 180 flights were canceled, dozens of ferries grounded, many schools closed.

• Areas south of the capital were worst hit by heavy rain and strong winds, which caused significant damage.

Philippines  Cyclones Since August 2009

• 30 Oct: Typhoon Mirinae Struck Quezon, leaving up to 20 dead or missing.
• 3 Oct: Typhoon Parma’s triggered floods and landslides killing more than 200.
• 26 Sept: Tropical Storm Ketsana dumped more water on Manila and neighboring provinces than ever recorded, killing up to 400, and leaving a quarter of a million people homeless.
• 7 Aug: Typhoon Morakot swept northern Luzon, killing more than 10 people.

Related Links:

• TS MIRINAE – UPDATE 31 October 2009
• MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way
• Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT

TS MIRINAE – UPDATE 31 October 2009

Typhoon Mirinae, the fourth in a month to strike the Philippines, pummels the island of Luzon

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

• Position: 14.0N 119.5E
• Location: 105 km (55 nm) southwest of Manila, Philippines
• Maximum  Sustained Winds: 95 km/h (50 kt)
• Maximum Wind Gusts : 120 km/h (65 kt)
• Movement and speed: Tracking  westward [255º] at 28 km/h (15 kt) – gaining speed
  
• Maximum Significant Wave Height: 4 m (13 feet)

FEWW Comment: Mirinae could strengthen into a typhoon [Probability = 0.35] again, before making its next landfall in Vietnam

Tropical Cyclone Mirinae [SANTI] MTSAT IR1. Still Image. Click image to enlarge and update.

Typhoon Mirinae, now weakened to a tropical storm force, struck the main island of Luzon, Philippines early Saturday morning (17:00 UTC Friday), making landfall in the eastern Quezon province, he Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA )reported.

The powerful typhoon “crashed into the Philippine capital Saturday with pounding rain and strong winds, causing a massive power outage, downing trees and bringing fresh floods to areas still partially submerged from a recent deadly storm,” AP reported. 

Residents living in Manila Bay look out from their house that was damaged by Typhoon Mirinae in Bacoor town, south of Manila, October 31, 2009. REUTERS/Erik de Castro. Image may be subject to copyright.

“The Philippine network said knee-deep floodwaters were reported in the village of Salapan and brownouts were reported in parts of Luzon, including metro Manila. Power was out in Quezon province, where the typhoon made landfall, as well as parts of Bicol, Pasig City and Rizal province,” UPI reported.

Up to 150,000 residents in low-lying areas were  evacuated to shelters before the typhoon arrived, the National Disasters Coordinating Council reported. Some 180 flights from Manila were canceled and many ferries were grounded, with more than 10,000 passengers stranded.

Rains caused by Mirinae have worsened the flood-stricken parts of the capital, Manila and surrounding regions caused by earlier storms, which left nearly 1,000 people dead. Up to a quarter of million people remain homeless, including more than 100,000 crammed into temporary  shelters run by the disasters relief agency.

“The government disasters relief agency reported that at least 15 villages and districts in Metro Manila are submerged — some in waist-deep floodwaters,” Xinhua reported.

This natural-color image of the storm was captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite at 1:00 p.m. local time October 30 (05:00UTC). The eye of the storm was a large mass of roiling clouds located less than a hundred kilometers northeast of Cataduanes Island in the Philippines. NASA image by Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team. Caption by Rebecca Lindsey, NASA Earth Observatory. Edited by FEWW.

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

• Position: 14.0N 119.5E
• Location: 105 km (55 nm) southwest of Manila, Philippines
• Maximum  Sustained Winds: 95 km/h (50 kt)
• Maximum Wind Gusts : 120 km/h (65 kt)
• Movement and speed: Tracking  westward [255º] at 28 km/h (15 kt) – gaining speed
  
• Maximum Significant Wave Height: 4 m (13 feet)

TC MIRINAE 5-day track forecast. Source: JTWC. 

Best Track:

• MPEG-2 (0.14 MB)
• WMV (0.18 MB)

Satellite Imagery – animated(Constant Illumination)

• MPEG-1 (0.60 MB)
• MPEG-2 (1.58 MB)
• WMV (1.37 MB)

Satellite Imagery- animated  (Sun Illumination)

• MPEG-1 (0.35 MB)
• MPEG-2 (0.98 MB)
• WMV (0.84 MB)

Previous entries:

• MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way

• Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT

Source Page: FEWW Satellite Imagery

MTSAT/ NOAA

• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible
• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR

• West Pacific/South China Sea – Water Vapor
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Visible
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Infrared
• West Pacific/South China Sea-  Enhanced IR

Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

• West Pacific – Infrared
• West Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• West Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Pacific – Visible
• West Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Infrared
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Enhanced IR
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR
• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible

• West Central Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Central Pacific – Visible
• West Central Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Central Pacific – Infrared
• West Central Pacific IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Related Links:

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes

• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch
• How Much Can a Single Natural Event Affect You?
• Floods leave 2.5% of Colombia’s population homeless
• Earth’s Human Induced Antiphase Nears Completion
  

• Remember this Image!

• Carbon Footprint of Your Dollar
• World Problems: The Root Cause Matrix
• First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Giga Trends
• World CO2 Emissions

• Wall Street Cognitive Dissonance
• Failing Ecosystems
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs

Previous Storms:

• Photo of LUPIT Near Northern Luzon

• UPDATE: Typhoon LUPIT Arrives
• Typhoon LUPIT: Cruel, Harsh, or Wicked?
• Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm
• Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009
• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

• Parma Hampers Recovery Efforts in Vietnam
• Philippines Still Flooded
• Philippines Terminally Impacted?

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

Related Links:

• Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT
• MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way

Typhoon MIRINAE “In-Touch” with LUPIT

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 31 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

TS MIRINAE – UPDATE 31 October 2009

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 30 Oct 2009 – Time: 15:00UTC

• Position: 14.5N 122.7E
• Location: 240 km (130 nm) east of Manila, Philippines
• Maximum  Sustained Winds: 158 km/h (85 kt)
• Maximum Wind Gusts : 195 km/h (105 kt)
• Movement and speed: Tracking  west-southwest [255º] at 24 km/h (13 kt) – has slowed down
  
• Maximum Significant Wave Height: 9 m (27 feet)

Mirinae has slightly weakened, but still maintains a robust radial outflow. It’s expected to make landfall in Quezon province by 18:00UTC, and reemerge in the South China Sea, further weakened, about11 hours after landfall.

Mirinae [Santi] Track by the Philippines DOST PAGASA. Click image to enlarge and update.

Typhoon Mirinae [SANTI] MTSAT IR1. Still Image. Click image to enlarge and update.

Areas Under Highest Storm Warning Signal

Signal No.3  (100-185 kph winds)

• Quezon
• Polillo island
• Bulacan
• Bataan
• Rizal
• Cavite
• Laguna
• Batangas
• Oriental Mindoro
• Lubang Island
• Marinduque
• Camarines Norte
• Camarines Sur
• Catanduanes
• Metro Manila

Signal No. 2  (60-100 kph winds)

• Aurora
• Quirino
• Nueva Ecija
• Tarlac
• Pampanga
• Zambales
• Occidental Mindoro
• Albay
• Burias Island

Typhoon MIRINAE – Update on 30 Oct 2009 – Time: 03:00UTC

MIRINAE – MTSAT IR Still Image. Click Image to Enlarge and Update !

The Eye of the typhoon should make land fall on Luzon at or about 18:00 UTC today [Oct 30, 2009]

• Position: 15.0N 125.2E
• Location: 510 km (275 nm) east of Manila, Philippines
• Maximum  Sustained Winds: 167 km/h (90 kt)
• Maximum Wind Gusts : 204 km/h (110 kt)
• Movement and speed: Tracking west at 31 km/h (17 kt) – fast moving
  
• Maximum Significant Wave Height: 10 m (30 feet)

• Wind Flux: 8.1000E+02
• Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 5.7550E+04
• Power Dissipation Index: 4.2202E+06

Typhoon MIRINAE 5-Day Projected Track. Source: JTWC.  Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon MIRINAE 3-Day Projected Track. Source: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon MIRINAE [Typhoon SANTI in the Philippines] track by Dost PAGASA, Philippines. Click image to enlarge.

Click image to animate.

Animation: Best Track

• MPEG-2 (0.63 MB)
• WMV (0.66 MB)

Satellite Imagery (Constant Illumination)

• MPEG-1 (0.84 MB)
• MPEG-2 (2.25 MB)
• WMV (1.96 MB)

More links are posted throughout this page.

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Typhoon MIRINAE – Update 29 Oct 2009

MIRINAE  “fine-tuned” by LUPIT

Typhoon Mirinae  in “direct contact” with the remnants of LUPIT

Background: MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way

Typhoon MIRINAE Status UPDATE
On 29 October 14:45 UTC Typhoon Mirinae  was located at near 15.6N,  128.7E, approximately 890 km (480 nm) east of Manila, Philippines, tracking westward at a forward speed of about 22 km/h (12 knots).  It’s maximum significant wave height was estimated at 11 meter (33 feet).

• Maximum  Sustained Winds: 167 km/h (90 knots)
• Maximum Wind Gusts :   204 km/h (110 knots)

Typhoon MIRINAE Status
On 29 October 03:45 UTC Typhoon Mirinae  was located at 15.8N, 131.4E, about 1200km (650nm) east of Manila, Philippines, tracking westward at a forward speed of 27 km/h (15knots). It’s maximum significant wave height was estimated at 10 meter (30 feet).

Typhoon Mirinae – MTSAT IR – Still Image recorded on October 29, 2009 at 00:30 UTC. Note the poleward arm linked to the remnants of LUPIT circling to the east of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. Click image to enlarge and update. Source: Digital Typhoon.

The poleward arm of Typhoon MIRINAE stretches out like an umbilical cord to meet the remnants of LUPIT circling to the east of Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. It seems like the task LUPIT failed to perform is now passed on to MIRINAE. Will she succeed wreaking more havoc on the fatally injured  Manila, Luzon and the Philippines? Will she be the “mercy” typhoon?

Click image to animate.

Basic Information

DOB:   2009-10-27 06:00:00 UTC
AGE:   45 hours / 1.55  days
Minimum Pressure:   955 hPa
Maximum Wind Speed:  150 km/h ( 80 knots)
Maximum Wind Gusts: 215km/h (115 knots)
Max Radius of Storm Wind:  260 km /140 nm [highly symmetrical]
Diameter of Storm Wind:  260 km /140 (nm)
Radius of Gale Wind:  410 km / 220 (nm)
Diameter of Gale Wind:  670 km /360 (nm)
Distance traveled:  1,355 km
Average Speed: 30.1 km/h / 783  km/day
Range of Movement: Latitude 1.4, Longitude 12.3
Wind Flux: 5.1000E+02
Accumulated Cyclone Energy:  3.5050E+04
Power Dissipation Index:  2.5328E+06
Typhoon Name:  Mirinae means “Milky way” in South Korean

Source: Digital Typhoon / edited by FEWW

TY MIRINAE 5-day track forecast. Source: JTWC

Best Track:

• MPEG-2 (0.14 MB)
• WMV (0.18 MB)

Satellite Imagery – animated(Constant Illumination)

• MPEG-1 (0.60 MB)
• MPEG-2 (1.58 MB)
• WMV (1.37 MB)

Satellite Imagery- animated  (Sun Illumination)

• MPEG-1 (0.35 MB)
• MPEG-2 (0.98 MB)
• WMV (0.84 MB)

Previous entries:

• MIRINAE: Another Cyclone Heading Philippines Way

Source Page: FEWW Satellite Imagery

MTSAT/ NOAA

• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible
• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR

• West Pacific/South China Sea – Water Vapor
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Visible
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Infrared
• West Pacific/South China Sea-  Enhanced IR

Loops/Animations (MTSAT/NOAA/SSD)

• West Pacific – Infrared
• West Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)
• West Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Pacific – Visible
• West Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Infrared
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Enhanced IR
• West Pacific/South China Sea – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR
• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible

• West Central Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Central Pacific – Visible
• West Central Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Central Pacific – Infrared
• West Central Pacific IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Related Links:

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes

• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch
• How Much Can a Single Natural Event Affect You?
• Floods leave 2.5% of Colombia’s population homeless
• Earth’s Human Induced Antiphase Nears Completion
  

• Remember this Image!

• Carbon Footprint of Your Dollar
• World Problems: The Root Cause Matrix
• First Wave of World’s Collapsing Cities
• Giga Trends
• World CO2 Emissions

• Wall Street Cognitive Dissonance
• Failing Ecosystems
• The Fate of Energy Dinosaurs

Previous Storms:

• Photo of LUPIT Near Northern Luzon

• UPDATE: Typhoon LUPIT Arrives
• Typhoon LUPIT: Cruel, Harsh, or Wicked?
• Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm
• Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009
• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

• Parma Hampers Recovery Efforts in Vietnam
• Philippines Still Flooded
• Philippines Terminally Impacted?

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

Typhoon LUPIT: Cruel, Harsh, or Wicked?

Typhoon LUPIT – 21 Oct 2009

• How long will LUPIT loiter around Luzon

• How much more rain will it dump?

• Will LUPIT move away and come back, AGAIN!
  

At 00:00 UTC – Oct 21, 2009
Max Winds:   160km/h (85 knots)  Category: 2
Max Gusts:  195 km/h (105knots)
Coordinates: 20.5ºN 128.9ºE
Movement past six hours: 280 degrees at 15 km/h (08 kts)
Location: About 925 km (500 kts) NE of Manila Philippines

Summary of Storm Activity

Lupit is tracking westward steered by a subtropical ridge extension to the north. Deep convection has become more organized near the storm center over the past six hours, JTWC reported.

Typhoon LUPIT – MTSAT Still image.

LUPIT Track by UniSys Weather.  Click image to enlarge and update.

History Color Code – The chart color codes intensity (category based on Saffir-Simpson scale)

NOTE: Pressures are in millibars and winds are in knots where one knot is equal to 1.15 mph. Source: UniSys Weather

LUPIT 5-day track. Source JTWC. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon LUPIT – 20 Oct 2009

Typhoon LUPIT (22W): JTWC/SATOP multispectral satellite image. October 20, 2009 at 05:00 UTC. Click image to enlarge.

Typhoon LUPIT – 20 October 2009, at 09:00UTC

Position: 20.4ºN, 129.3ºE
Location: Approximately 1,110 km (600 NM) northeast of Manila, Philippines.
Movement:  WNW at about 15km/h (8 knots)
Center: LUPIT’s Eye has once again become visible
System Characteristics: LUPIT has good radial out flow
Maximum significant wave height:  ~ 11 meters (34 feet)
Max sustained winds: 175km/h (95 knots)
Max gusts: 215 km/h (115 knots)

Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.

MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Background and More images:

• Typhoon LUPIT: Cruel, Harsh, or Wicked?
• Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009
• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!

• LUPIT 3-day projected track.

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR
• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible

• Northwest Pacific – Water Vapor
• Northwest Pacific – Visible
• Northwest Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Pacific – Infrared
• Northwest Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• West Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Pacific – Visible
• West Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Pacific – Infrared
• West Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Other Satellite Images:

• FEWW Satellite Imagery

Related Links:

• Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm
• Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009
• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

• Parma Hampers Recovery Efforts in Vietnam
• Philippines Still Flooded
• Philippines Terminally Impacted?

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

Super Typhoon LUPIT: The Sauntering Storm

Listening to the Planet’s Pulse

Weather models provide useful information, but they can’t project the larger picture

Storms and other natural phenomena serve to rejuvenate and ensure streams of life flow unimpeded. If you find their impact devastating, it’s because you are looking at the wrong roadmap.

Super Typhoon Lupit. Date/Time as inset. Click on image to animate.

MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Background and More images:

• Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009
• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

Summary of Lupit Latest Data  (October 19 at (03:00 UTC)

• Intensity: Super Typhoon (Very Strong)
• Center position:  18.7° N, E 133.8°E
• Direction and speed: N (340 degrees) at 9km/h (5kt)
• Central pressure: 930hPa
• Maximum sustained winds:  250 km/h, or70m/s (135kt)
• Max. wind gusts:  307km/h (165kt)
• Area of 50kt or greater winds:   200km wide (110NM)
• Area of 30kt or greater winds:   440km wide (240NM)
• Source(s): JMA; JTWC
• Significant wave height: 11 m (32 feet)

Super Typhoon LUPIT (22W) is currently located about 1455 km (785 nm) ENE of Manila, Philippines, having moved north-northwestward at a forward speed of about 9 km/h (05 knots) during the previous six hours. LUPIT is turning back towards the west because a mid-latitude trough has left the region and the subtropical ridge is beginning to build in. LUPIT may be unable to retain super typhoon intensity and could slightly weaken before moving closer to  northern Luzon, JTWC reported.

LUPIT 3-day projected track. Image: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click image to enlarge!

Super Typhoon LUPIT Projected Track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC. Click image to enlarge!

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR
• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible

• Northwest Pacific – Water Vapor
• Northwest Pacific – Visible
• Northwest Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Pacific – Infrared
• Northwest Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• West Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Pacific – Visible
• West Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Pacific – Infrared
• West Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Other Satellite Images:

• FEWW Satellite Imagery

Related Links:

• Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009
• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

Typhoon LUPIT Update – 17 Oct 2009

LUPIT has intensified to typhoon strength moving toward central and northern Luzon, Philippines

Previous Entry:

• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

Typhoon Data Summary

At 2:00 AM local time, Saturday October 17, typhoon LUPIT [locally known as “RAMIL”] was located about 850 km east of VIRAC, CATANDUANES (14.6°N; 133.2°E) with maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h and gusts of up to 150 km/h moving WNW at about 20/km/h, Philippines PAGASA reported.

FEWW Forecast:

Moderators believe LUPIT has the potential of becoming the most destructive typhoon yet to strike Philippines in 2009.

FEWW Previous Forecast

• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

MTSAT IR Image. Updated at 30 mins intervals. Click image to enlarge.

Satellite Loops/Animation/Images

• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR
• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible

• Northwest Pacific – Water Vapor
• Northwest Pacific – Visible
• Northwest Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Pacific – Infrared
• Northwest Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• West Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Pacific – Visible
• West Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Pacific – Infrared
• West Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Other Satellite Images:

• FEWW Satellite Imagery

MTSAT – RGB Still Image. Time/Date as inset. Click image to  enlarge and update.

MTSAT – AVN Enhancement – Still Image. Time/Date as inset. Click image to  enlarge and update.

Cyclone LUPIT Projected track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.

Related Links:

• LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

• Parma Hampers Recovery Efforts in Vietnam
• Philippines Still Flooded
• Philippines Terminally Impacted?

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

LUPIT: The Mercy Storm?

FEWW Forecast appears at bottom of page!

LUPIT Races West Toward Philippines and Taiwan

Would Lupit avoid Luzon, or will it be the storm that drove the island closer to edge of collapse?

Just weeks after storm Ketsana left its deadly legacy, and days after Typhoon Parma worsened the misery, storm Lupit, forecast to be a typhoon, is racing west towards the islands of Luzon and Taiwan.

At 21:00UTC on October 15, tropical storm  LUPIT (22w)  was located  near 12.8N, 137.9E or about 315 km north of Yap moving west along the southern periphery of the Subtropical Ridge (STR) at about 33km/h.

Storm Lupit races west. MTSAT – Visible Image – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.

LUPITis expected to intensify steadily as it continues through the Philippine Sea because the environment is forecast to remain favorable, “characterized by minimal vertical wind shear, good radial outflow and high ocean heat content,” JTWC reported.

It is forecast to move West Northwest at reduced speeds of about 26 kph. Intertropical Convergence Zone (itcz) will affect Southern Luzon and Visayas, PAGASA reported.

Lupit expected to generate maximum significant wave height of 5 meters.

How much would storm Lupit affect Luzon, Philippines? MTSAT – IR CH1 – Still Frame. Click image to enhance and update.

Cyclone LUPIT Projected track. Solid centers represent wind forces stronger than 117km/h. Source: JTWC.

FEWW Forecast: Moderators believe if Cyclone LUPIT were to merge with [feed on] the “storm placenta” to its south (encircled on the image), it could probably

1. Reorganize, strengthening  into a super typhoon.
2. Alter its projected course, moving toward a westerly direction and targeting southern Luzon.

Satellite Loops/Animation

• Tropical West Pacific – Infrared
• Tropical West Pacific – Enhanced IR
• Tropical West Pacific – Water Vapor
• Tropical West Pacific – Visible

• Northwest Pacific – Water Vapor
• Northwest Pacific – Visible
• Northwest Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• Northwest Pacific – Infrared
• Northwest Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

• West Pacific – Water Vapor
• West Pacific – Visible
• West Pacific – Visible (Colorized)
• West Pacific – Infrared
• West Pacific – IR (Aviation Color Enhancement)

Other Satellite Images:

• FEWW Satellite Imagery

Related Links:

• Parma Hampers Recovery Efforts in Vietnam
• Philippines Still Flooded
• Philippines Terminally Impacted?

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

Philippines Still Flooded

Image of the Day:
‘Pepeng’ [Parma] may have gone; Floods, risk of landslides remain strong

More than a week after Parma first hit N Luzon, the roads  in central Dagupan city, northern Philippines remain flooded.

Residents wade through a flooded road brought on rains by typhoon Parma in central Dagupan city in northern Philippines October 10, 2009. REUTERS/Erik de Castro. Image may be subject to copyright.

“The most important thing is to open roads so we can send relief goods because we cannot hope to find alternate routes,” said Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro .

“As of now, food and relief materials can only be delivered by helicopters because it will take 2-5 days to clear up roads and bridges washed out by floods and landslides,” said Lieutenant-Colonel Ernesto Torres, of the national disaster agency.

About 500,000 tons of ready to harvest rice and other crops have been destroyed by the two storms, Ketsana and Parma, the equivalent of about 7 percent of 2009 fourth quarter forecast harvest of 6.5 million tons, said Jesus Emmanuel Paras, Agriculture undersecretary.

Various sources have estimated the cost of damage to crops and infrastructure at up to $500million.

Related Links:

• Philippines Terminally Impacted?

• Images of the Day: Super Typhoon Melor
• Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?
• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana

• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch

• Earth undergoing significant geophysical disturbances
• Typhoon Melor Leaves a Trail of Destruction in Japan
• Typhoon Melor Arriving in Japan, Leaving Lasting Impression

Could Typhoon Melor Drag Parma Back to Philippines?

Typhoon Melor may be heading toward Kanto region, Japan

Barring  a big surprise or last-minute change of heart, typhoon Melor will only briefly enter the Philippines territory late Monday (local time), exiting mostly uneventfully by early Tuesday.

Typhoon Melor. MTSAT Unenhanced Still Image. Time and date as inset. To update and enlarge, click on image. The very slow moving storm Parma to the WNW of Melor loitering in NW Luzon and southern tip of Taiwan region could be dragged back to Luzon, as Melor heads NNW towards Japan. Note Melor’s well-defined eye and its near-perfect symmetry.

Typhoon Melor. MTSAT RGB Still Image. Time and date as inset. To update and enlarge, click on image. [Remember, Earth is NOT flat. :)]

Typhoon Melor. MTSAT Infra Red Short Wave – Still Image. Time and date as inset. To update and enlarge, click on image.

For additional images and animation, visit Satellite Imagery Links Page.

Melor is not expected to impact Philippines directly, but it is controlling the movement of typhoon Parma, which is moving west very slowly as it passes over northern Luzon.

The two typhoons  are interacting, somewhat pinwheeling [“Fujiwhara Effect,”] with Melor packing more powerful winds being the driver, as Parma weakens. In fact, it is possible that Melor could drag Parma back on to Luzon, at least temporarily.

Melor spared Guam and Saipan over the weekend, with NWS in Guam reporting gusts of up to 38 mph and little rain as Melor moved north away from the island Saturday night.

The following information is provided by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

TYPHOON 0918 (Melor) Issued at 00:45 UTC, 5 October 2009

Forecast for 05:00 UTC, 5 October 2009

• Intensity: Very Intense
• Center position:  N18°30′(18.5°),  E136°20′(136.3°)
• Direction and speed of movement: WNW 25km/h(14kt)
• Central pressure: 910hPa
• Maximum wind speed near the center: 198 km/h
• Maximum wind gust speed : 288 km/h
• Area of 50kt (93km/h) winds or more  : 190km (100NM)
• Area of 30kt (56km/h) winds or more: NE560km, SW390km(210NM)

JMA forecast track for Typhoon Melor. Image may be subject to copyright.

Related Links:

• When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting
• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana
• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory

Strong Earthquake Strikes Taiwan

Strong Earthquake Measuring up to 6.4Mw Strikes East Coast of Taiwan

Strong earthquake measuring up to 6.4 Mw struck off the east coast of Taiwan at a depth of 17.5 km on Saturday, October 03, 2009 at 17:36 UTC.

As the quake occurred, Typhoon Parma was reported heading towards the southeastern coast of Taiwan still reeling from the aftermath of typhoon Morakot that  struck the island in August, killing more than 1000 people.

10-degree Map Centered at 25°N,120°E

Earthquake Location Map. Source: USGS/EHP. Enhanced by FEWW

USGS/EHP has downgraded this quake to a magnitude 6.1 shock.

Earthquake Details:

• Magnitude: 6.1 [possibly measuring up to 6.4Mw – Moderator]
• Date-Time:
  • Saturday, October 03, 2009 at 17:36:05 UTC
  • Sunday, October 04, 2009 at 01:36:05 AM at epicenter
• Location 23.635°N, 121.565°E
• Depth 17.5 km (10.9 miles)
• Region TAIWAN
• Distances
  • 35 km (25 miles) S of Hua-lien, Taiwan
  • 110 km (65 miles) ESE of T’ai-chung, Taiwan
  • 110 km (70 miles) NNE of T’ai-tung, Taiwan
  • 160 km (100 miles) S of T’AI-PEI, Taiwan
• Location Uncertainty:  horizontal +/- 5.7 km (3.5 miles); depth +/- 5 km (3.1 miles)
• Parameters NST= 97, Nph= 97, Dmin=38.4 km, Rmss=1.06 sec, Gp= 22°, M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=6
• Source: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
• Event ID: us2009mhcf

Related Links:

• Morakot: An Early Dividend of Climate Change
• Magnitude 6.3 quake strikes Taiwan region

• Latest Earthquakes Magnitude 5.5 +
• Deadly Earthquake Strikes Java, Indonesia [Includes FEWW Forecast]
• Another Busy Day for Earthquakes [Includes FEWW Forecast]
• FEWW Earthquake Forecast: Timor Sea

• Earthquakes [Main Index page]

When Will Global Food Shortages Begin Biting

Asia-Pacific Human Enhanced Disasters – UPDATE  #4

Typhoon Parma turned to sea on Sunday, but not before hitting northeastern Philippines, killing five people, and causing extensive damage and flooding.

Parma was the strongest typhoon to hit Philippines since 2006.

Local residents make their way through floodwaters in Taytay township, Rizal province east of Manila, Philippines, Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009. Powerful winds toppled power poles and trees Saturday in the northern Philippines as the second typhoon in eight days bore down on the country. (Wally Santana/AP Photo). Image may be subject to copyright.

“The destruction in our infrastructure and agriculture is huge. Wide areas are still under water, including rice fields about to be harvested.” Said Alvaro Antonio, the governor of the northern Cagayan province, the worst hit area.

Many areas are inaccessible due to large landslides and there are power outages throughout the region. It’s difficult to assess the full extent of the damage, because the phone lines are down, too, Antonio said.

“Winds are still strong, but no more rains. Our relief works are ongoing,” he said.

Buildings are seen under in floodwaters following the passage of Typhoon Parma in Nabua township,  Camarines Sur province, Philippines, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009. Landslides buried two families in the Philippines as they sheltered in their homes from Asia’s latest deadly typhoon, which killed at least 16 people and left more than a dozen villages flooded Sunday. (AP Phot: Nelson Salting). Image may be subject to copyright.

Nearly 150,000 people on the east coast of Philippines had fled their homes well before typhoon Parma made landfall.

The cost of crop damage in the area is estimated at $2.5 million, mostly in rice and corn fields in Isabela and Cagayan regions.

Officials estimate that the cost of damage from Ketsana last week to rice crops, ready to be harvested, will exceed $120 million, with another $40 million in damages to the infrastructure.

Flood survivors crowd an evacuation centre in the town of San Pedro, Laguna province, south of Manila.  Photo: AFP. Image may be subject to copyright.

The Philippines is the world’s largest rice importer, some 10 percent of its annual needs, and with Ketsana and Parma devastating large areas of ready to harvest crops, it may have to import  more, mostly from Vietnam.

“I am not worried about rice shortage for 2009 because we have enough buffer stock. But, we’re watching the impact for the first and second quarters of 2010,” Agriculture Secretary Arthur Yap was reported as saying. “If needed, we will import rice.”

Flood survivors line up to receive food and drinking water in Manila. Disaster agencies say they are overwhelmed by the scale of disaster. Photo: AP. Image may be subject to copyright.

Storm Ketsana had destroyed about 290,000 tons of rice crops ready to be harvest, according to Yap, about five days worth of consumption nationally; however, the government has about 32 days buffer stock stock until December.

Typhoon Ketsana Pummels Vietnam

Typhoon Ketsana headed west toward Laos on Wednesday after battering central Vietnam. Much of Danang is seen under water on Wednesday. Photo: Reuters.Image may be subject to copyright.

“We are waiting for the water level to subside and determine the extent of the damage on rice farms,” Yap said.

“The Philippines has imported 1.775 million tonnes of milled rice so far this year, of which 1.5 million tonnes was purchased via an intergovernment deal with Vietnam.” Reuters reported.

In August, official in Vietnam said the government may agree to sell an additional 400,000 tons of rice to the Philippines

Prior to the damage caused by Ketsana and Parma, the Philippines government had forecast that the rice harvest for the October-December quarter, the busiest for the country” would reach 6.48 million tons, a 4 percent increase on 2008.

Parama is the latest human enhanced disaster to hit the Asia-Pacific region following Ketsana that killed about 410 in the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand.

Ketsana also displaced up to 100,000 people in southern Laos and caused flash floods in northern Thailand.

An islander walks in the debris on the south coast of Upolu Island of Samoa, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009. Samoa’s tourism industry said Friday it fears a “second tsunami” of vacation cancellations after deadly earthquake-triggered waves wiped out some of the South Pacific country’s most idyllic white-sand beaches and resorts. (AP Photo/Xinhua, Huang Xingwei). Image may be subject to copyright.

A tsunami swamped parts of the American and Western Samoa islands, killing as many as 170 people, with dozens more unaccounted for.

Rescue workers look for survivors inside the Ambacan Hotel which collapsed in the earthquake hit area of Padang, West Sumatra province October 2, 2009. REUTERS/Nicky Loh. Image may be subject to copyright.

Two powerful earthquakes devastated a 100km stretch of the coastal areas west of the  Indonesian island of Sumatra, with the death toll likely to exceed 4,000 (UN figures).

Related Links:

• Earthquakes: Human Enhanced Disasters – UPDATE 3 Oct 2009
• Earthquakes: Human Enhanced Disasters – UPDATE 2 Oct 2009
• Another Strong Quake Hits Sumatra
• Disaster Update: Indonesia Quake
• Powerful Earthquake Strikes Southern Sumatra, Indonesia
• Another Strong Quake Hits Sumatra
• Disaster Update: Indonesia Quake
• More Megaquakes May Strike PRF Anytime

• Magnitude 8.3 Quake Strikes Samoa Islands Region
• “Twin-engine” hurricanes, “Supercharged” Typhoons
• Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila
• Bill Becomes Hurricane, Strengthening

• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana
• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory

Super Typhoon Parma May Churn Manila to Vanila

Images of the Day: The Front One is Super Typhoon Parma

Philippines President has declared a nationwide “state of calamity” and ordered mass evacuations of six provinces in northern Luzon, where typhoon Parma is forecast to make a landfall  early afternoon  Saturday.

‘Typhoon Parma is forecast to strike the Philippines as a super typhoon at about 12:00 GMT on 3 October. Data supplied by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 17.2 N, 123.2 E. Parma is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 268 km/h (166 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.’ Reuters said.

About 300 people were killed in the Philippines worst floods in living memory caused by tropical storm Ketsana on September 26, which swamped about half a million homes in the Manila and nearby regions. Typhoon Parma is expected to expand the destruction.

MTSAT  Visible  Satellite Image of soon to be Super Typhoon Parma followed by Typhoon Melor – still image dated and timed at October 1, 2009 at 05:30UTC – Click on image to  enlarge the hourly updated image. Image: NOAA

MTSAT  Rainbow Enhancement Satellite Image of soon to be Super Typhoon Parma followed by Typhoon Melor – still image dated and timed at October 1, 2009 at 05:30UTC – Click on image to  enlarge the hourly updated image. Image: NOAA

72-hour Forecast Track  – Source: JMA. Image may be subject to copyright. Click on Image to update.

No. of typhoons in 2009 (so far) =  18
Annual Average (1951 – 2008)  = 19.1

Will Manila Collapse?

The probability of Manila collapsing will be discussed in the future posts.
Keyword: “Manila Collapsing.”

See comments section for updates.

Related Links:

• Philippines Extreme Rain from TS Ketsana
• Manila Flooding Could Trigger Quakes
• Philippines Worst Ever Flood Casualties Climb a Notch
• Philippines: Worst Floods in Living Memory